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Immigrant

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  1. Yes, there is a risk that you could find yourself in a position where you absolutely have to sell and the market has dropped. But how great is this risk, given that the OP is considering buying precisely because he wants to be able to raise his family in the same house for many years to come? The bears always seem to concentrate (and IMO exaggerate) downside risks. But these risks have to be balanced against other (probably more likely) risks - especially the risk that prices will continue to rise. Not something the bears like to consider, but a possibility nevertheless and a risk that should be taken into account, if we are talking about risks.
  2. Brilliant post. Tha only thing I would argue with is the above - social services should be there to help people to get back on their feet and to take care of themselves, not encourage a culture of dependence. Welfare benefits which provide a disincentive to work should be abolished. Agree on the importance (and long-term cost-effectiveness) of good child-care though.
  3. Marriage is compromise and give-and-take. You've done things your way for 3 years, and it didn't work out as planned, so now it's time to do things her way. Of course, the Crash, IF there is going to be a big one, is closer now than ever before, but it's still a big IF. As for thinking you can only show your wife hugely over-priced stuff - I think you are seriously underestimating her intelligence. She will probably read your strategy on here for one thing! (And while she's at it, she'll see just how misogynistic some of the posters on here are, which will not impress her with the wisdom of your online friends). If you buy a family home that you can afford and want to live in for years, and get a good mortgage deal (perhaps fixed rate), you should be able to survive a Crash, if there is one. And you can be the one who says I Told You So. Good luck.
  4. Read my post. His poor logic is imagining that he is going to be able to snap up a bargain on a nice house that has been on the market for 2-3 years. Or that being a cash buyer is going to get him a 25% discount. In his dreams. Edited typo.
  5. Put youself in the seller's position for a few seconds. You have a house which you think you may be able to get x for. Some geezer you don't know from Adam expects you to agree to lower your price by 25% just because he is a cash buyer, and the sale could go through a few weeks sooner. What are you going to do? And as someone else pointed out, if a nice house has been on the market for for 2-3 years, it can only be because the seller is far from desperate and is not willing to accept low offers. Your wife must despair of your poor logic. All this talk of you leaving her - she must be wondering what she is doing with you. There are more important things in life than trying to time the market to perfection - especially when you have consistently got it wrong for years. I think this is what your wife is trying to tell you. Sounds like you have a reasonable compromise worked out - you will buy by the end of the year. To listen to the bears, 2007 is going to be the year of the big HPC, so what are you afraid of?
  6. Well done for not telling them. There is nothing worse than a "friend" gleefully telling you that they have just spotted whatever you have just proudly purchased for half the price. I had one recently gloat over my new mobile phone contract. She could not keep the smurk off her face while she pretended to be concerned for me. As it turned out, she was not comparing apples with apples and the deal was every bit as good as I had thought it was.
  7. I love these resurrected old threads - it just shows how wrong people can be. The more "certainty" with which the prediction is made, the more wrong it is IMHO.
  8. It would be interesting to know what the Charities Commission people earn. Perhaps that's why they're not too keen to rock the boat.
  9. Really? How do you explain the fact that HPI has been a global phenomenon?
  10. They've gone to another website which is more tolerant of bullish opinion.
  11. Saturday was not the last shopping day before Christmas. Most shops will be open again today.
  12. Uber-bear Property Guru has been saying Q1 2007 for some time. Not long to go now to see if he's right.
  13. It's just a shame so many bears on here were so quick to say the US was already crashing, when clearly it is hasn't yet or there would not be this discussion. Premature bear claims always undermine the bear cause - it's called crying wolf.
  14. It wouldn't surprise me at all if RB had a nervous breakdown. Or if Mrs RB said enough is enough - but then he would have said goodbye.
  15. Thta's a slightly misleading headline. So that's a 3.5% YOY drop, but there was no MOM drop. I have zero first-hand knowledge of the US market, but I am wary of calling a Crash too soon. We made the same mistake about the UK market last year, and more recenty about the Australian market: a market that slows or drops a bit may be about to Crash, but it is too early to say. The US market could be stabilising at a the new level.
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