I Sent An Email To Roger Bootle

[eurows]

I wrote to Roger Bootle asking him why he continues to advocate a reduction in IR in the UK when all signs show otherwise.

Roger

Why do you continue to say the next move in interest rates in the UK

may well be down when all the signs are showing the next move will be up.

This is his reply

Thank you for your message. You may well note my use of the word may. I admit that things do seem to be turning. The next few weeks will be interesting.

Regards

Roger Bootle

Edited May 3, 2006 by eurows

[Flat Bear]

I wrote to Roger Bootle asking him why he continues to advocate a reduction in IR in the UK when all signs show otherwise.

This is his reply

Thank you for your message. You may well note my use of the word may. I admit that things do seem to be turning. The next few weeks will be interesting.

Regards

Roger Bootle

So what he really meant was may go up, down, or stay the same. In other words hes admitting he hadnt got a clue.

[We've gone]

I'm surprised you got a response

[cupidstunt]

So what he really meant was may go up, down, or stay the same. In other words hes admitting he hadnt got a clue.

Why didn't he just say "How the f..k should I know"

[Killer Bunny]

Just like his ridiculous 20% fall in HPs by 2007, he was far too early.

HPs will of course tumble and so will IRs - eventually.

FP

[Flat Bear]

Just like his ridiculous 20% fall in HPs by 2007, he was far too early.

HPs will of course tumble and so will IRs - eventually.

FP

House prices may fall by a futher 20% by 2007 and interest rates may go down

please note my use of the word may

oh

and pigs might fly

[Badger]

Just like his ridiculous 20% fall in HPs by 2007, he was far too early.

HPs will of course tumble and so will IRs - eventually.

FP

Plenty of houses have dropped 20% off their asking price aleady - but not enough to affect the average, yet.

[Fancypants]

Just like his ridiculous 20% fall in HPs by 2007, he was far too early.

so was I (similarly for dotcom crash) - so I can't criticise him. Then again, I don't write for a national newspaper and purport to be writing gospel. Use of "may" notwithstanding.

[I Told You So]

Poor old Roger he must be feeling a bit sorry for himself after insisting base rates would hit 3.5% this year while similtaneously having a HPC. Is it me or dont rates have to rise for a HPC.

[Killer Bunny]

Poor old Roger he must be feeling a bit sorry for himself after insisting base rates would hit 3.5% this year while similtaneously having a HPC. Is it me or dont rates have to rise for a HPC.

Short run, probably. But not in the scheme of things.

[BuyingBear]

So what he really meant was may go up, down, or stay the same.

Yeah but, no but yeah but....

[thefruits]

Guys.. give the man some credit. He's answered a straight question at least with a straight bat. Most people would delete unsolicited mails at a glance. Funnily enough, Lucy Kellaway (FT) is brilliant at giving answers to unsolicited questions and obviously spends a bit of time thinking of her responses. Obviously she doesn't have to. In return, i have never posted any of her responses on public BB's. I hope RB doesn't find out about this posting. TF

[eric pebble]

Plenty of houses have dropped 20% off their asking price aleady - but not enough to affect the average, yet.

EXACTLY!!!!! What the media does not tell us is - - since 2004 - prices AND asking prices have gone down HUGELY -- sometimes as much as 30% -- as sellers just CANNOT sell their properties for the utterly insane prices they have been told to sell at by gormless, chinless, brainless and criminal Estate Agents. PRICES HAVE GONE DOWN HUGELY ALREADY in many many places. GET THIS. SO - they had to put their asking prices down. This has been a clear pattern right across the board.

Edited May 3, 2006 by eric pebble

[dogbox]

EXACTLY!!!!! What the media does not tell us is - - since 2004 - prices AND asking prices have gone down HUGELY -- sometimes as much as 30% -- as sellers just CANNOT sell their properties for the utterly insane prices they have been told to sell at by gormless, chinless, brainless and criminal Estate Agents. PRICES HAVE GONE DOWN HUGELY ALREADY in many many places. GET THIS. SO - they had to put their asking prices down. This has been a clear pattern right across the board.

Eric I know examples of new builds dropping 20%, but on the other hand I see property that has gone up 10% in the last 2 years.

Can u give specific examples of property that has dropped 30% with unequivocal proof?

[BuyingBear]

Guys.. give the man some credit. He's answered a straight question at least with a straight bat. Most people would delete unsolicited mails at a glance. Funnily enough, Lucy Kellaway

I hear her often on the BBC World Service, she doesn't seem to suffer fools gladly.

[brainclamp]

Bootle is wrong to think about an IR cut, based on falling CPI! (what nonsense ...LOL!), but he is equally wrong to think HPI is linked to average earnings. HPI is linked to supply and demand, and with the UK population rising to 70m in a short space of time, HPI can only go one way!. Why don't you ask him why he doesn't imclude immigration and population growth in his calcs?

Edited May 3, 2006 by brainclamp

[Sledgehead]

I wrote to Roger Bootle asking him why he continues to advocate a reduction in IR in the UK when all signs show otherwise.

This is his reply

Thank you for your message. You may well note my use of the word may. I admit that things do seem to be turning. The next few weeks will be interesting.

Regards

Roger Bootle

He said back in 2003 after a few months of stock ups that he saw stock market falls ahead. I wrote him an email explaining the case for further stock price rises, mostly overbearishness amongst ordinary investors. I pointed out that economists might improve the accuracy of their predictions by factoring in sentiment metrics. His reply.

"Thank you for your email. It was most interesting."

Sarcy f@cker! And wrong at that ....

[BuyingBear]

Sarcy f@cker! And wrong at that ....

Shush, we need people like him, they're called counter-parties.

[Mushroom]

The World may end tomorrow.

Or next week, next month, next...., next......, next........

[boom_and_bust]

Poor old Roger he must be feeling a bit sorry for himself after insisting base rates would hit 3.5% this year while similtaneously having a HPC. Is it me or dont rates have to rise for a HPC.

Hi,

Japan, 1990's, 50-85% falls in prices nationally with interest rates near 0%. It all started with an explosion in credit and broad money supply expansion, in a similar way to the way the UK is behaving at the moment, with similar levels of overvaluation and income multiples to the UK in 2006. When it did pop, not even near 0% interest rates would revive commercial and resedential property prices again for nearly a decade. Of course, we probably would not see that kind of scenario here, Britain has historically had an inflationary bias, just to say, it is a funny old game.

Boomer

[Killer Bunny]

The World may end tomorrow.

Or next week, next month, next...., next......, next........

Nah, Neo will be The One to save us...

[Time to raise the rents.]

I wrote to RB long ago telling him that IMO HP's were more attached to rents & interest rates than income multiples since the emergence of the BTL mortgage & therefore his predictions based on income multiples were wrong.

His reply to me: