Homes for sale at five-year high, says Zoopla: Will house prices fall?

[fellow]

Homes for sale at five-year high, says Zoopla: Will house prices fall?

https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/mortgageshome/article-13337013/Homes-sale-five-year-high-says-Zoopla-house-prices-fall.html?

Quote

The number of homes for sale is at a five year high, according to Zoopla, raising questions over whether house prices could fall further. The property portal revealed there are 20 per cent more homes on the market than there were this time a year ago. 

Zoopla said it marked a 'huge increase' in supply, and was double what was available at the same time in 2022.

Some experts suggest this will lead to the supply of homes outstripping demand, and could lead to prices falling in some areas.

Jonathan Hopper, chief executive of buying agents Garrington Property Finders said: 'Falling interest rates are no longer helping buyers, but the jump in the number of homes for sale is. 'Buyers now have a much wider range of stock to choose from than they did just a few months ago.The delicate balance between supply and demand is the single biggest factor affecting house prices, and in many areas, this mismatch is big – and growing. Many estate agents now report that the number of homes coming on the market is four or even five times higher than the number of prospective buyers registering their interest.'

 

https://propertyindustryeye.com/homes-for-sale-at-five-year-high-says-zoopla/

Quote

The supply of homes for sale has hit a five year high with 20% more homes on the market versus last year, new day data from Zoopla has revealed.

Compared to spring 2022, the property websites says supply has improved the most in Cornwall (+159%), North Kesteven, Lincolnshire (+155%) and Bournemouth, Christchurch and Poole (+146%) where prices have also increased significantly over the last five years.

Supply is highest in the South West, where agents have 2.5x as many homes for sale compared to spring 2022. It’s thanks to large capital gains over the last five years that are continuing to motivate homeowners to sell in these areas. In Cornwall alone, prices have risen by over a quarter (27%), whilst prices in Bournemouth, Poole and Christchurch (South East Dorset) have risen by a fifth (20%) meaning current sellers in these areas stand to make a potential buck.

However, extra supply also means more choice for buyers in these coastal areas. A return to office or hybrid working means that many potential buyers may not be motivated to move for a lifestyle change. This moderation in non-local buyer demand is having a knock-on effect on the time it takes to sell a property. For example, in Cornwall it’s taking 20 days longer on average to sell a property compared to spring 2022, and 23 days longer in Bournemouth, Christchurch and Poole – versus a national average of 16 days.

 

Edited April 23 by fellow

[70PC]

Interesting, maybe the waiting game is coming to an end. We want a house but we won't pay Ferrari prices for an old banger. 

[Locke]

27 minutes ago, fellow said:

Jonathan Hopper, chief executive of buying agents Garrington Property Finders said: 'Falling interest rates are no longer helping buyers

What is this man smoking? Am I having a stroke?

[fellow]

3 hours ago, Locke said:

What is this man smoking? Am I having a stroke?

I think you misunderstood what he said. Mortgage rates had been falling over the last few months but this is now going into reverse so yes, falling interest rates are no longer helping buyers.

[Locke]

13 minutes ago, fellow said:

I think you misunderstood what he said. Mortgage rates had been falling over the last few months but this is now going into reverse so yes, falling interest rates are no longer helping buyers.

But "falling rates" were never helping buyers. They were "falling" from a level 20x what they had previously been. They were having to take mortgages at much higher rates to pay off people who paid less for their homes when rates were a fraction what they are now.

Oh no, the car which hit me at 50mph and helped me by slowing to 48mph is now speeding up again!

[Huggy]

Interest rates are rising 100-300% for some people this year. 125,000 people every single month for the whole year I may have mentioned in one or two posts since January

[fellow]

4 minutes ago, Locke said:

But "falling rates" were never helping buyers. They were "falling" from a level 20x what they had previously been. They were having to take mortgages at much higher rates to pay off people who paid less for their homes when rates were a fraction what they are now.

Oh no, the car which hit me at 50mph and helped me by slowing to 48mph is now speeding up again!

What about first time buyers? Anyway, what he is essentially saying is mortgage rates are rising so the the wishful thinking from sellers that the market would improve when rates fell is over.

[Locke]

4 minutes ago, fellow said:

What about first time buyers? Anyway, what he is essentially saying is mortgage rates are rising so the the wishful thinking from sellers that the market would improve when rates fell is over.

I'm exactly talking about first time buyers. It's just astonishing to me that anyone would have the gall to put "falling interest rates were helping buyers" against the background of possibly the largest % increase in rates in the shortest time in recorded history.

People with existing mortgages are possibly even more fcuked, because they can't choose not to remortgage, because they can't sell at the same price they paid.

Like I know what he was trying to say, but it's just an astonishing spin on the situation.

[Fromage Frais]

• rising asking prices and falling sales volumes = Bearish
• market holding up = interest rates not high enough potentially
• BOE doing as little as they can get away with.
• 21/22 + 2-5 year fix + year forbearance = 2024 - 28 pain period or readjustment.

The last in will be first screwed imho.

Still early days although it should have died sooner.

If Labour are clever they will let it just go and then blame the tories > stimulate and enjoy a boom up till the next election.

[Fromage Frais]

53 minutes ago, Huggy said:

Interest rates are rising 100-300% for some people this year. 125,000 people every single month for the whole year I may have mentioned in one or two posts since January

Yes but the power that be have agreed that even if you cannot afford your mortgage you will get 12 months before proceedings.  Then the faff and then finally the pressure.

Keep an eye on the auctions for decent homes rather than fixer uppers and repos.  Still not many tbh and the party wont start until the banks feel better to have some money than less money than x months before.

We will then have repos and probates as at the moment in my area only BTL and probates are shifting due to pragmatism.

[fellow]

6 hours ago, Fromage Frais said:

• rising asking prices and falling sales volumes = Bearish
• market holding up = interest rates not high enough potentially
• BOE doing as little as they can get away with.
• 21/22 + 2-5 year fix + year forbearance = 2024 - 28 pain period or readjustment.

The last in will be first screwed imho.

Still early days although it should have died sooner.

If Labour are clever they will let it just go and then blame the tories > stimulate and enjoy a boom up till the next election.

You mean rising supply?

[Fromage Frais]

15 hours ago, fellow said:

You mean rising supply?

nope but same deal

I mean transactions.

Rising prices with falling transactions is a bearish signal as buyers cannot bridge the bid ask gap.

https://www.ftadviser.com/property/2024/01/02/housing-transactions-down-22-year-on-year/

When you ad rising supply then if the credit environment maintains or deteriorates it should result in price falls.  If not then those businesses reliant on churn for their work or commissions will be impacted severely.

[cdd]

But I thought Stewy said the wise money was getting into property now, before prices explode upwards again.

Looks like he was wrong, as usual.

[msi]

22 hours ago, Huggy said:

Interest rates are rising 100-300% for some people this year. 125,000 people every single month for the whole year I may have mentioned in one or two posts since January

Wow and actual fact, based on observation and evidence.  Well done!

 

125,000 people every month praying for a 'return to normal' then finding themselves over a barrel. You can almost hear their brains.

'...it will go back to normal soon....'

'....not yet, but we can tighten our belt for a while...no holiday this year..then its all good.....'

'....we should give up the PCP car, they're all the same and i like having a 'classic'......'

'....its ok, we are paying more but the house is worth it, after all property goes up....'

'....look at these people saving and getting high rates...they are causing the market to rot...we did the right thing...'

'...what did the neighbour do that and sell so cheap...they've ruined it for us.....'

 

[Fromage Frais]

50 minutes ago, cdd said:

But I thought Stewy said the wise money was getting into property now, before prices explode upwards again.

Looks like he was wrong, as usual.

I just saw that they changed SMI in 2023 up to £200,000 so that working people in UC can claim and have to indefinitely and port it ... paid directly to the bank.

You are the bank foreclose on the house or get them to do SMI and get xxx per month indefinitely from the government.

Or foreclose and get them to sell and potentially get less once all the fees and prices fall?

No brainer and probably why there are so few decent family homes for sale of they type a 200k loan plus a reasonable deposit gets you.

400 million at the moment and sold as better than rehoming so it will be interesting to see how this endures over the next few years.

If you are a ok but not rich tax payer you are currently paying housing benefits for folks and now increasingly SMI interest for other folks owning houses..... and struggling affording the rents and/or house prices.

Edited April 24 by Fromage Frais

[Huggy]

1 hour ago, msi said:

Wow and actual fact, based on observation and evidence.  Well done!

It was an article from the Telegraph, part of the stinking HPI loving MSM, so it's more 'research lite'. I'm sure it's close enough though, and it does put the shits up the HPI crowd here, so all good nonetheless. Well done as well for keeping it relevant and on topic for the thread too ☺️

1 hour ago, msi said:

'...what did the neighbour do that and sell so cheap...they've ruined it for us.....'

This one in particular will cause the most aggro, and maybe even violence. Maybe even against the new neighbour for the sheer cheek buying at that price and removing, what I honestly believe to be for some, the main achievent of the aggrieved neighbour's life.

Edited April 24 by Huggy

[stuckinlimbo]

2 minutes ago, Huggy said:

'...what did the neighbour do that and sell so cheap...they've ruined it for us.....'

I heard something to that effect recently from a neighbour of a house I went to look at. Obviously they didnt say the they've ruined it for us part, not did I clock it at the time. But the neighbour is also thinking about putting their house up for sale

[mynamehere]

Where are you getting 125k a month from? Maybe at peak Mid 2023.

What happened to house prices in Q2/Q3 2023 when remortgaging peeked, can someone remind me?

Are we expecting more of the same in Q2 2024? 

 

[Huggy]

3 minutes ago, mynamehere said:

Where are you getting 125k a month from? Maybe at peak Mid 2023.

What happened to house prices in Q2/Q3 2023 when remortgaging peeked, can someone remind me?

Are we expecting more of the same in Q2 2024? 

 

Just this article saying 1.5m in 2024. 5th paragraph.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/property/mortgages/remortgaging-guide-interest-rates-calculator/

I doubt it's spread evenly but it's a good enough estimate. As are:

4,000 a day

And 29,000 a week

[msi]

10 minutes ago, Huggy said:

This one in particular will cause the most aggro, and maybe even violence. Maybe even against the new neighbour for the sheer cheek buying at that price and removing, what I honestly believe to be for some, the main achievent of the aggrieved neighbour's life.

On this we agree.  A sort of reverse Green-eyed monster as the emperor is called out naked and reality hits home.  I can see this result in lots of petty neighbour disputes, especially if the new buyer is 'different'  - all the echo's of the 'wrong' sort 'bringing house prices down.... hurting those that tried ....' Perfect fodder for the Daily Fail.

[mynamehere]

4 minutes ago, Huggy said:

Just this article saying 1.5m in 2024. 5th paragraph.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/property/mortgages/remortgaging-guide-interest-rates-calculator/

I doubt it's spread evenly but it's a good enough estimate. As are:

4,000 a day

And 29,000 a week

And this is different to 2023 how?

[Huggy]

5 minutes ago, mynamehere said:

And this is different to 2023 how?

Different year, different people, different conditions. Debt can be used to delay the inevitable, people covering food bills with CCs for example when their sucker rates come to an end. But not forever.

Interest rates take time to feed through (did I hear 18 months somewhere?) People having less money to pay for houses is not going to go well for HPI. One might ask why all of those payrises haven't given you the boom you desire? Just trundling along right now.

Or to give another analogy. The Titanic was fine in the first hour after that incident as it was for the 2nd hour too.

[mynamehere]

1 hour ago, Huggy said:

Different year, different people, different conditions. Debt can be used to delay the inevitable, people covering food bills with CCs for example when their sucker rates come to an end. But not forever.

Interest rates take time to feed through (did I hear 18 months somewhere?) People having less money to pay for houses is not going to go well for HPI. One might ask why all of those payrises haven't given you the boom you desire? Just trundling along right now.

Or to give another analogy. The Titanic was fine in the first hour after that incident as it was for the 2nd hour too.

The boom I desire? What have you been smoking.

There is nothing about 2024 that makes a crash even 1% more likely than 2023

 

 

 

 

 

 

[fellow]

More evidence of properties coming on the market at an increasing rate::

https://propertyindustryeye.com/what-is-currently-happening-in-the-uk-property-market-10/

" Listings for last week – Highest since October 2020

New Properties to Market: The UK saw 39,487 new listings [in week 16]. This year’s YTD listings stand at 553,736, 11.2% higher than the historical 8 year YTD average of 497,991 and 9.9% higher YTD 2023".

 

Edited April 26 by fellow

[winkie]

Those hoarding homes will sit on them if they think still making good capital gains, they will sell when cost of keeping, council taxes etc becomes greater than any capital gains.......don't forget the CGT if due......no gains no tax, one tax not everyone will pay.

It is true when looking at value in a home, it is open and out there what a similar home sold for nearby recently to make a comparison with......no amount of fluffy cushions, lick of paint, clocks or staging a property will make a house worth more than it is without it.