fellow Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 Number of housing starts the 'worst that the industry has seen' with 68% decrease in Q3 2023 https://www.developmentfinancetoday.co.uk/article-desc-9933_Number of housing starts the ‘worst that the industry has seen’ with 68 per cent decrease in Q3 2023 Quote According to new data from DLUHC, the number of dwellings where building work started on site was 21,300 in Q3 2023 — a 68% decrease on Q2 2023, and a 52% decline on Q3 2022. Starts are also 28% above their 2020 Q2 trough. The number of dwellings completed was 39,990 (seasonally adjusted), a 1% increase on the previous quarter and a 5% dip when compared to the same quarter in the previous year. Samuel Mather-Holgate, independent financial advisor at Mather and Murray Financial, commented: “Under this government, house building has all but stopped. “There is no incentive for housebuilders to build, no confidence in the market, higher interest rates, and no demand from first-time buyers. “The situation is the worst that the industry has seen. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stewy Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 160k per year for 1m+ Extra immigrants? It's not surprising prices are being pumped upwards. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
70PC Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 56 minutes ago, fellow said: Number of housing starts the 'worst that the industry has seen' with 68% decrease in Q3 2023 https://www.developmentfinancetoday.co.uk/article-desc-9933_Number of housing starts the ‘worst that the industry has seen’ with 68 per cent decrease in Q3 2023 “There is no incentive for housebuilders to build, no confidence in the market, higher interest rates, and no demand from first-time buyers." Economies wit lower house prices have successful building industries. The property market has become a hostage to the house building industry which is down to government policy. If builders can't sell for 9X average salary, they down tools anhd walk off site. Changes to planning rules and taxes on land approved for building would soon have builders back on the job. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timm Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 1 hour ago, Stewy said: 160k per year for 1m+ Extra immigrants? It's not surprising prices are being pumped upwards. 672,000 net immigration for the year to June 2023 (ONS Estimate) https://migrationobservatory.ox.ac.uk/resources/briefings/long-term-international-migration-flows-to-and-from-the-uk/ 672k / 160k = 4.2 people per new dwelling. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony_Teacake Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 1 hour ago, Stewy said: 160k per year for 1m+ Extra immigrants? It's not surprising prices are being pumped upwards. The party is over now most regions are dropping in price. I would try and get your money back for that so called degree you have because they didn't teach you much. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nick Cash Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 1 hour ago, Stewy said: 160k per year for 1m+ Extra immigrants? It's not surprising prices are being pumped upwards. My thoughts too. Not perhaps to push up prices but certainly to create a floor. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Insane Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 5 hours ago, Timm said: 672k / 160k = 4.2 people per new dwelling. What 4.2 people in a tiny 450 sq.ft one bed flat , the figures don't give a breakdown on what type of property is being built. Many will be tiny apartments. The rate of New Dwellings is not keeping up with those arriving never mind making any inroads into the housing shortage which was already here before the extra 672 people arrived last year. The shortage of property is only going to get worse it is not going to keep up with demand. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nothernsoul Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 The large developers are primarily land speculators, which isn't surprising when you consider how houses in Britain have become financial instruments ahead of homes. A while back, just as the BOE started to raise rates, I heard someone on a podcast( I forget who) who was on the board of a housebuilder, mention most developers had already planned to massively cut back on planned developments. Remember they have form on this, going into hibernation following the financial crisis, mothballing or renting out blocks of new build flats to avoid dumping them on the market. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fellow Posted January 25 Author Share Posted January 25 1 hour ago, nothernsoul said: The large developers are primarily land speculators, which isn't surprising when you consider how houses in Britain have become financial instruments ahead of homes. A while back, just as the BOE started to raise rates, I heard someone on a podcast( I forget who) who was on the board of a housebuilder, mention most developers had already planned to massively cut back on planned developments. Remember they have form on this, going into hibernation following the financial crisis, mothballing or renting out blocks of new build flats to avoid dumping them on the market. The problem with this business plan is that voluntarily shutting down an entire sector or the economy is not going to increase the value of their assets any time soon. I suspect the reality is they don't have a choice because there is simply not enough cashflow to cover their costs. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fellow Posted April 11 Author Share Posted April 11 (edited) Further decline in Q1 2024: Housing starts tumble as investor confidence hits ‘all-time low’ https://propertyindustryeye.com/housing-starts-tumble-as-investor-confidence-hits-all-time-low/ Quote Construction starts in the residential sector have plummeted as the sector battles a sluggish economy, Glenigan’s latest industry review shows. The Index focuses on the three months to the end of March 2024, covering all underlying projects, with a total value of £100m or less (unless otherwise indicated), with all figures seasonally adjusted. The April Index paints a decidedly gloomy picture, in line with the persistent decline across the construction sector. Again, project-starts are down against the previous Index period and the previous year. Sector Analysis – Residential Residential construction experienced overall decline in the three months to March as starts fell 27% against both the preceding period and 2023 figures. Continuing on a downward trajectory, social housing performance was particularly weak, with starts down 43% against the preceding three months and 40% compared with the previous year. Private housing also dropped back, with work starting on site falling 22% against the previous three-month period and plummeted 24% on 2023 levels. Edited April 11 by fellow Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ftb_fml Posted April 11 Share Posted April 11 "No incentive to build" - i.e. no rampant HPI or blatant backhanders to the spiv developers. Their trough is no longer being filled to overflowing by their Westminster cronies and they've removed their greedy snouts out of spite. Parasites. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timm Posted April 11 Share Posted April 11 It's interesting that professional surveyors trading as EAs are increasingly bullish. But multi million pounds worth Developers are gloomy. Why the disconnect? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winkie Posted April 11 Share Posted April 11 11 minutes ago, Timm said: It's interesting that professional surveyors trading as EAs are increasingly bullish. But multi million pounds worth Developers are gloomy. Why the disconnect? One have hope......the other ones are realists.......can only but hope. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timm Posted April 11 Share Posted April 11 3 minutes ago, winkie said: One have hope......the other ones are realists.......can only but hope. Yes! Whilst you were replying, I was checking the RICS report and it looks as if EA Surveyors have consistently overestimated 12 month forward sales expectations and price expectations - for the last decade! In fact, they are so consistently wrong, that it's actually quite a good forward indicator! (If you discount for their bias). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
70PC Posted April 11 Share Posted April 11 On 1/25/2024 at 7:31 PM, fellow said: The problem with this business plan is that voluntarily shutting down an entire sector or the economy is not going to increase the value of their assets any time soon. I suspect the reality is they don't have a choice because there is simply not enough cashflow to cover their costs. There is no shortage of demand at the right price. Like the UK car industry in the 70's, builders have become used to getting away with overpricing, poor quality, and inefficient processes. Cash flow would not be a problem with better run building businesses. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Data Dave Posted April 11 Share Posted April 11 3 hours ago, Timm said: In fact, they are so consistently wrong, that it's actually quite a good forward indicator! (If you discount for their bias). 👍👍👍 love it Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
staintunerider Posted April 15 Share Posted April 15 On 11/04/2024 at 12:23, Timm said: Yes! Whilst you were replying, I was checking the RICS report and it looks as if EA Surveyors have consistently overestimated 12 month forward sales expectations and price expectations - for the last decade! In fact, they are so consistently wrong, that it's actually quite a good forward indicator! (If you discount for their bias). Didn't a certain Supermarket get in trouble for bringing stuff forward onto their figures On 25/01/2024 at 09:36, 70PC said: “There is no incentive for housebuilders to build, no confidence in the market, higher interest rates, and no demand from first-time buyers." Economies wit lower house prices have successful building industries. The property market has become a hostage to the house building industry which is down to government policy. If builders can't sell for 9X average salary, they down tools anhd walk off site. Changes to planning rules and taxes on land approved for building would soon have builders back on the job. I see their sharee prices falling like rocks then...there is no more help to sell, help to push up the price on their shoddy cornflakes packets. They either build or get into another line of business....in the US they are doing deals on mortgage finance, incentives so much so sales of used houses have plummeted.....the morons here should learn a trick or 2...it will then put pressure on house sellers with their non maintained for 40 years **** holes that they think is a kind of golden goose they are selling https://wolfstreet.com/2024/03/25/prices-of-new-houses-19-from-peak-lowest-since-june-2021-prices-of-new-v-existing-houses-why-sales-of-new-houses-held-up-while-sales-of-existing-houses-plunged/ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
staintunerider Posted April 15 Share Posted April 15 On 11/04/2024 at 12:48, 70PC said: There is no shortage of demand at the right price. Like the UK car industry in the 70's, builders have become used to getting away with overpricing, poor quality, and inefficient processes. Cash flow would not be a problem with better run building businesses. Spoke to a guy who sold a new build, he said it looked great from the outside but it was shoddy...big detached 4 bed...he got rid of it..made a bit on the price he paid... I had a 70's house that had been rushed by the builder...chipboard floors throughout, still better built than many today, had really solid internal walls...but the stud walls all sat on the chipboard....it was near a river and although built up i figured if it ever flooded the boards would all turn to mush.....and cost a fortune to repair...all so builders can savea few quid.....all these new houses have chipboard all over the place...horrible product...looked at some high end houses being built a few years back...i mentioned the chipboard ...oh it's sustainable, it's energy saving material....BS....it's just cheap **** and what else is cheap **** in the build....? as much as they can get away with.... They are the British Leyland 70's product in 21st century housing...... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
70PC Posted April 15 Share Posted April 15 33 minutes ago, staintunerider said: Spoke to a guy who sold a new build, he said it looked great from the outside but it was shoddy...big detached 4 bed...he got rid of it..made a bit on the price he paid... I had a 70's house that had been rushed by the builder...chipboard floors throughout, still better built than many today, had really solid internal walls...but the stud walls all sat on the chipboard....it was near a river and although built up i figured if it ever flooded the boards would all turn to mush.....and cost a fortune to repair...all so builders can savea few quid.....all these new houses have chipboard all over the place...horrible product...looked at some high end houses being built a few years back...i mentioned the chipboard ...oh it's sustainable, it's energy saving material....BS....it's just cheap **** and what else is cheap **** in the build....? as much as they can get away with.... They are the British Leyland 70's product in 21st century housing...... Their marketing material speaks for itself. Computer generated graphics even on completed properties. Incomplete details, no floor area, pictures of flowers in vases etc. They don't seem even bothered to try. "This analysis, drawing on government data, indicates that new-builds commanded a premium of 29.9% last year, a significant increase from the 23% average in 2013. Regionally, all but London saw an increase in premiums, with the North East experiencing the highest at 56%. Scotland and the East Midlands also saw premiums above 40%." https://theintermediary.co.uk/2024/04/new-build-premiums-hit-ten-year-high-in-uk-with-london-as-the-exception/ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
staintunerider Posted April 16 Share Posted April 16 (edited) 12 hours ago, 70PC said: Their marketing material speaks for itself. Computer generated graphics even on completed properties. Incomplete details, no floor area, pictures of flowers in vases etc. They don't seem even bothered to try. "This analysis, drawing on government data, indicates that new-builds commanded a premium of 29.9% last year, a significant increase from the 23% average in 2013. Regionally, all but London saw an increase in premiums, with the North East experiencing the highest at 56%. Scotland and the East Midlands also saw premiums above 40%." https://theintermediary.co.uk/2024/04/new-build-premiums-hit-ten-year-high-in-uk-with-london-as-the-exception/ We've been here before back in the day with new build premiums they can taken to the woodshed in a correction and even without a correction without rampant hpi that new build premium will be a achilles heel. And any leasehold especially(mostly flats) will really end up swimming naked when the seaside tide goes out... I have mentioned before some riverside apartments near Heathrow bought in 2002/3 now worth less than the selling price back then 550k...they are circa 450/495 apparently....bloke who bought a 4 bed detached 1/4 mile away saw it double from 400 to 800....and thats with 20 years of hpi lunacy... What happens to them in the serious roll back of prices ? Just reading about the mugs this morning that bought share ownership of new builds ..service charges going from 85 to 250 a month...and one 500 to 1700 ! Now unsaleable for anywhere near what they paid......who would buy these things and be at the at kind of lunacy....1/3 ownership with a mortgage but you get the 100% service charges.....that can change at a moments notice with no redress.... Some of these leaseholds will end up dumped on the lender and prob get sold out the back to private equity firms for pennies on the dollar.... Stidio flats from 89 all over again except they flogged em to Joe Public in the 90's for 10k/15k a pop...as i said mate bought one with a personal loan...this was quite common as it was apparently quicker...no mortgage bs to dela with...slam dunk...they even organised the loans....mate still has his 10k one from back then.... Other mate paid 60k in 89 for one and held on took about 15 years and the hpi party to float his boat again....most of his neighbours threw the keys back at the lenders.... Edited April 16 by staintunerider Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
staintunerider Posted April 16 Share Posted April 16 https://www.theguardian.com/society/2024/mar/30/outrage-as-residents-in-englands-affordable-housing-forced-to-pay-thousands-of-pounds-extra-in-service-charge Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
staintunerider Posted April 16 Share Posted April 16 (edited) 1 minute ago, staintunerider said: https://www.theguardian.com/society/2024/mar/30/outrage-as-residents-in-englands-affordable-housing-forced-to-pay-thousands-of-pounds-extra-in-service-charge Leasehold sucks, period! Now it sucks even more! Don't kid yourself, you're a renter with a long contract and with 100% responsibility for maintenance and and face it any hikes, you're a sitting duck! Edited April 16 by staintunerider Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
staintunerider Posted April 16 Share Posted April 16 (edited) 10 minutes ago, staintunerider said: Leasehold sucks, period! Now it sucks even more! Don't kid yourself, you're a renter with a long contract and with 100% responsibility for maintenance and and face it any hikes, you're a sitting duck! Oh and if you did shared ownership you still have 100% obligation for charges on what 30% ownership ? And you probably have a mortgage for that 30% which means you own diddly squat and when the correction tsunami washes back over the hpi inflated and then the premium price on top for a new build, getting your (borrowed) money back will be a pipedream! This is so much worse than the 80's the prices are through the stratosphere, the service charges no longer anything like reasonable with reasonable increases....30% ownership would have been laughed at back in 89 and in the 90;s they would have had a fit of laughter....nah but you went ahead to jump on the hpi gravy train not knowing or understanding anything of what you were doing and conned yourself into thinking you were a homeowner... The sooner this market buckles under its own hubris the better... And it is, these are the signs and you're the tail end charlie in the eye of the hurricane Edited April 16 by staintunerider Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
staintunerider Posted April 17 Share Posted April 17 On 25/01/2024 at 09:55, Tony_Teacake said: The party is over now most regions are dropping in price. I would try and get your money back for that so called degree you have because they didn't teach you much. Stewey: 160k per year for 1m+ Extra immigrants? It's not surprising prices are being pumped upwards. Where's the credit coming from that ? DELUSIONAL MAGICAL THINKING Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
staintunerider Posted April 17 Share Posted April 17 On 11/04/2024 at 10:57, ftb_fml said: "No incentive to build" - i.e. no rampant HPI or blatant backhanders to the spiv developers. Their trough is no longer being filled to overflowing by their Westminster cronies and they've removed their greedy snouts out of spite. Parasites. They simply cannot see that through or their shareholders will fire em....they will need a new approach and that probably is what the housebuilders in the US are doing...subsidising finance, throwing in goodies what have you.... They will simply chase the market down and they can still make money...just not the money they were making...that time is in the rear view mirror...remember the bloke with the quarter of a billion bonus ? That's not happening again and is evidence of the insanity....they hadn't obviously (the board) anticipated this when they wrote his renumeration contract.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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