onlooker Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 1 hour ago, Trampa501 said: So you agree that despite a rise in population, the economy (in this case the oil sector) had a far greater effect and has resulted in lower house prices? https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-46945882 Scroll down to graph comparing rents in Aberdeen with all other Scottish cities. All the other cities show a significant rise compared to Aberdeen which collapsed from 2014 onwards, when the oil price collapsed. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Staffsknot Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 (edited) 9 hours ago, iamnumerate said: +1 Germany - record immigration, falling house prices. UK - net immigration above 600k in 2022 and 2023, higher than pre-pandemic. House prices falling. Discuss / explain Edited January 3 by Staffsknot Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iamnumerate Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 12 hours ago, Staffsknot said: Germany - record immigration, falling house prices. UK - net immigration above 600k in 2022 and 2023, higher than pre-pandemic. House prices falling. Discuss / explain No one thinks that immigration is the only factor - the title in fact says impact - not the only cause. Prices are still incredibly high despite interest rates being than for many years* and many bills increasing. (I don't know how many because I am not sure where one can see the actual mortgage rates avaliable). Affordability of housing is still worse than for many years. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Staffsknot Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 1 hour ago, iamnumerate said: No one thinks that immigration is the only factor - the title in fact says impact - not the only cause. Prices are still incredibly high despite interest rates being than for many years* and many bills increasing. (I don't know how many because I am not sure where one can see the actual mortgage rates avaliable). Affordability of housing is still worse than for many years. But again how significant factor? Because if Germany is experiencing record immigration and 10% price falls it can't be as significant as the economy or access to credit, or a host of other things. In fact it must be pretty low down the order UK very high migration but again house prices slipped. Economy stuttered and interest rates jumped, cost of living... much much more significant factors. Delay in impact on house prices is due to fixed rates of mortgages - lots of people not hit by the rises yet. The impact of immigration is pretty low down the pecking order. Its like saying driving a car with bald tyres and dodgy brakes in snow and crashing and then saying a factor was you didn't have your Coco Pops that morning. It may well have been a small factor but the other glaring issues are the important ones So low in fact it doesn't warrant the dozens of threads that seem to focus on less than 50k people coming across The Channel and letting the resident xenophobes have their sad little rants. The poll started because quite a few people are getting sick of the dog whistle numpty 'evil immigrant' threads that were popping up on an almost weekly basis with the same BS posted by the usual suspects. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iamnumerate Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 3 minutes ago, Staffsknot said: UK very high migration but again house prices slipped. Economy stuttered and interest rates jumped, cost of living... much much more significant factors. Delay in impact on house prices is due to fixed rates of mortgages - lots of people not hit by the rises yet. Are you saying that immigration is almost irrelevant and so assuming interest rates stay at historical levels we will go back to historical affordability? 8 minutes ago, Staffsknot said: The poll started because quite a few people are getting sick of the dog whistle numpty 'evil immigrant' threads that were popping up on an almost weekly basis with the same BS posted by the usual suspects. Believing that immigration affects house prices does not mean that immigrants are evil. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Staffsknot Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 2 minutes ago, iamnumerate said: Are you saying that immigration is almost irrelevant and so assuming interest rates stay at historical levels we will go back to historical affordability? Believing that immigration affects house prices does not mean that immigrants are evil. You should read the threads we have had everything including that Asian doctors aren't as worthy as non-Asians and everything under the sun + made up BS stats. Are you asking if rates stay high will prices drop? Because you are mixing terms and not being clear tbh Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iamnumerate Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 Just now, Staffsknot said: Are you asking if rates stay high will prices drop? Because you are mixing terms and not being clear tbh To be clear a) are you saying that immigration is irrelevant or close to irrelevant to house prices and that only interest rates matter? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Staffsknot Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 4 minutes ago, iamnumerate said: To be clear a) are you saying that immigration is irrelevant or close to irrelevant to house prices and that only interest rates matter? I am saying that immigration in the current context is largely irrelevant because int rates, the economy, credit availability and a host of other things matter more. Now the next step is people try and go that immigration kept rates artificially low... which then ignores a host of things that the people who write those reports caveat. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iamnumerate Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 9 minutes ago, Staffsknot said: I am saying that immigration in the current context is largely irrelevant because int rates, the economy, credit availability and a host of other things matter more. So if we had had zero immigration since 1997 - prices would be exactly the same now? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orb Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 3 hours ago, Staffsknot said: But again how significant factor? Because if Germany is experiencing record immigration and 10% price falls it can't be as significant as the economy or access to credit, or a host of other things. Without high immigration, we could speculate the falls would have been more (even a lot more) than 10%. 3 hours ago, Staffsknot said: UK very high migration but again house prices slipped. Precisely. They slipped. They didn't crash, much to the puzzlement of many. They should be crashing. An argument could be made that high immigration has a role to play in this. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dugsbody Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 1 hour ago, iamnumerate said: So if we had had zero immigration since 1997 - prices would be exactly the same now? We would have built a tiny fraction of the number of houses, so house prices wouldn't be that much different. You can tell this because house prices are falling now even though we continue to have high immigration. How could that ever be possible? I say it again and again, what matters is rent prices. Always look at rent prices if you want the clearest picture of pure population driving supply and demand. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iamnumerate Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 (edited) 32 minutes ago, dugsbody said: You can tell this because house prices are falling now even though we continue to have high immigration. How could that ever be possible? I am sorry but this threat is called Quote Does immigration impact house prices and the economy? Not Quote Is immigration the only thing that matters Do you understand the difference? Your question seems to imply that you don't understand it - surely that can't be true. Your question is a strawman because no one thinks that immigration is the only thing. Edited January 4 by iamnumerate Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Staffsknot Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 5 hours ago, Orb said: Without high immigration, we could speculate the falls would have been more (even a lot more) than 10%. Precisely. They slipped. They didn't crash, much to the puzzlement of many. They should be crashing. An argument could be made that high immigration has a role to play in this. Can you prove any of this because it seems you are speculating a lot Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orb Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 Just now, Staffsknot said: Can you prove any of this because it seems you are speculating a lot Sometimes you just know something to be true by looking at the forest as a whole, rather than each tree. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Staffsknot Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 6 hours ago, iamnumerate said: So if we had had zero immigration since 1997 - prices would be exactly the same now? If all other factors were same inc access to cheap credit, int rates, etc... they largely would be yes. I refer you back to Ferraris and ability to buy Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Staffsknot Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 Just now, Orb said: Sometimes you just know something to be true by looking at the forest as a whole, rather than each tree. So that would be a no then... Sometimes people talking about seeing a forest are looking at their Christmas tree Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brendan110_0 Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 Immigration puts extra stress into the rental market for sure. Morlocks (Ingerrr-land types) vs migrants with UKGOV ££££ behind them, plus the migrants won't complain about mouldy rundown properties as they came from worse situations, HMO's are rarely populated with white British. Not really fair that the current government has encouraged this situation. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orb Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 1 minute ago, Staffsknot said: So that would be a no then... Sometimes people talking about seeing a forest are looking at their Christmas tree A mass of people the size of Leeds arriving in the UK every year simply cannot not affect house prices, especially in light of house builders slowing down construction. The demand on housing must by the laws of basic capitalist economics push prices up. I can't understand how you can't understand that. Also, I'm not suggesting immigrants are buying houses. But landlords do, and more are renting by the room - have you seen rent prices on rooms lately? It's very depressing. Such a lucrative venture can only put upward pressure on house prices, even if the fundamentals remain, and house prices slip. They just don't slip so fast. Please answer this: what if the UK population literally doubled over this weekend? Would house prices remain stagnant? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Staffsknot Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 (edited) 36 minutes ago, Orb said: A mass of people the size of Leeds arriving in the UK every year simply cannot not affect house prices, especially in light of house builders slowing down construction. The demand on housing must by the laws of basic capitalist economics push prices up. I can't understand how you can't understand that. Also, I'm not suggesting immigrants are buying houses. But landlords do, and more are renting by the room - have you seen rent prices on rooms lately? It's very depressing. Such a lucrative venture can only put upward pressure on house prices, even if the fundamentals remain, and house prices slip. They just don't slip so fast. Please answer this: what if the UK population literally doubled over this weekend? Would house prices remain stagnant? So the immigrants are simultaneously undercutting British workers on wages while outbidding them on rents... right so Schrodingers immigrant Now landlords are a significant factor on house prices but landlords are catering mostly to a domestic audience and most are British. A population early the size of Leeds also left the UK this year. Mortgages were introduced in the 70s proper, emmigration outpaced immigration in the 70s... avg house prices quadrupled. It sinks your argument. A landlod isn't taking on someone fresh off the plane, with no ties to UK or credit history if they can get more from a domestic renter. So out of the two they will take the Brit if the Brit can pay the same. HMO rental numbers have been falling since 2018 with the migration numbers rising. There are less than 500k of HMOs in the UK, a small fraction of the landlords & lettings market. If UK pop doubled overnight yes prices would stay same as only a finite amount of credit is available and most of extra people would not have jobs unless you are doubling work, the economy, cash availability and all the host of things that those original people had Edited January 4 by Staffsknot Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orb Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 13 minutes ago, Staffsknot said: A population early the size of Leeds also left the UK this year. No, I meant net. It's probably closer to 2 Leeds in, 1 Leeds out. Anyway, I think it's best we agree to disagree. Can we at least agree on that? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iamnumerate Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 1 hour ago, Staffsknot said: If all other factors were same inc access to cheap credit, int rates, etc... they largely would be yes. Would rents be the same without immigration? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Staffsknot Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 20 minutes ago, Orb said: No, I meant net. It's probably closer to 2 Leeds in, 1 Leeds out. Anyway, I think it's best we agree to disagree. Can we at least agree on that? Well I think its a given we will have to agree to disagree Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zugzwang Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 55 minutes ago, Orb said: A mass of people the size of Leeds arriving in the UK every year simply cannot not affect house prices, especially in light of house builders slowing down construction. The demand on housing must by the laws of basic capitalist economics push prices up. I can't understand how you can't understand that. Also, I'm not suggesting immigrants are buying houses. But landlords do, and more are renting by the room - have you seen rent prices on rooms lately? It's very depressing. Such a lucrative venture can only put upward pressure on house prices, even if the fundamentals remain, and house prices slip. They just don't slip so fast. Please answer this: what if the UK population literally doubled over this weekend? Would house prices remain stagnant? Some immigrants are buying houses. 150,000+ wealthy migrants from Hong Kong have been encouraged to settle here with their dependents since 2021 via the British National (Overseas) route, their arrival superintended risbly by the Department for Levelling Up at a cost of £2.6 million/yr (2023-4). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Staffsknot Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 1 minute ago, iamnumerate said: Would rents be the same without immigration? Yes because if you think landlords rent to people who can pay less then you are very much mistaken. Again if immigrants are supposedly undercutting domestic labour & taking low paid jobs how are they supposedly outbidding British workers on rent offers? If they have no credit history and have to stump up a deposit from this low pay where is this coming from vs a domestic worker who probably has some savings? Its Shrodinger's immigrant again - pushing up the price of something by being paid less... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Staffsknot Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 5 minutes ago, zugzwang said: Some immigrants are buying houses. 150,000+ wealthy migrants from Hong Kong have been encouraged to settle here with their dependents since 2021 via the British National (Overseas) route, their arrival superintended risbly by the Department for Levelling Up at a cost of £2.6 million/yr (2023-4). Ah Zug https://www.local.gov.uk/lga-libdem-group/motions/supporting-hong-kong-arrivals-uk " That 16 per cent of those surveyed say they cannot afford the cost of living for the first 6 months after arriving in the UK. That, of those surveyed, 73 per cent expect to have difficulty finding accommodation, 57 per cent are concerned about living costs and 48 per cent are anxious about finding employment." But the stereotype is they are all super wealthy. All are fleeing the fact HK is no longer safe due to the reressive regime there though... any thoughts on who that is? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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