Prime Central London down 0.5% YoY

[Timm]

https://content.knightfrank.com/research/78/documents/en/the-london-review-q3-2023-10469.pdf

Knight Frank

They expect a 3% fall by the end of this year.

 

[msi]

So that's a falling plateau according to stewey....

[winkie]

Just the begining of removing what should never have happened.......reverting to mean.

[Stewy]

4 minutes ago, msi said:

So that's a falling plateau according to stewey....

I expected London to be worst hit...0.5% y-o-y is just peanuts really. 

[msi]

Just now, Stewy said:

I expected London to be worst hit...0.5% y-o-y is just peanuts really. 

wow you expected it to be worse....even in zone 3?

[Stewy]

Just now, msi said:

wow you expected it to be worse....even in zone 3?

I don't know areas of Greater London that well

[msi]

Just now, Stewy said:

I don't know areas of Greater London that well

FTFY

[frederico]

Oh come on, that’s tiny in percentage but probably a lot in actual cash.

I expect London to be hit a lot harder than that, those money launderers, sorry foreign investors are going to get squeaky bums soon.

[yodigo]

16 minutes ago, Stewy said:

I don't know areas of Greater London that well

"Zone 3" is just an "idea" it doesn't really exist. It's just a collection of stations, but where's the "boundary" between a Zone 3 station and a Zone 4 station? No here will know, and the EAs going to spin it to their advantage.

Still, prices always rise there, so it can't be bad 🙂

It's the perfect zone really

1 is toooooo expensive

2 is far flash g*ts wannabes who don't have enough money for zone 1, who wants to live with them?

6 is for yokels who chew the cud, 5 for wannabe yokels, 4 for, not sure (white van man types in semis  probably), but more expensive & longer commute than 3

so that leaves 3... perfect! No wannabes & no yokels Cool. Quick tube ride to the centre too. cooler. No wonder prices always rise 🙂

Edited October 11, 2023 by yodigo

[staintunerider]

22 minutes ago, Timm said:

https://content.knightfrank.com/research/78/documents/en/the-london-review-q3-2023-10469.pdf

Knight Frank

They expect a 3% fall by the end of this year.

 

Who cares what they expect it's all just static, prices are going to plummet in London, absolutely crater.

It's always the same, talking heads on the sidelines making predictions on the way up and also on the way down.

You will find them chattering at some point trying to identify when the bottom is in!

[Huggy]

Plateaus are the highest form of flattery.

[winkie]

24 minutes ago, yodigo said:

"Zone 3" is just an "idea" it doesn't really exist. It's just a collection of stations, but where's the "boundary" between a Zone 3 station and a Zone 4 station? No here will know, and the EAs going to spin it to their advantage.

Still, prices always rise there, so it can't be bad 🙂

It's the perfect zone really

1 is toooooo expensive

2 is far flash g*ts wannabes who don't have enough money for zone 1, who wants to live with them?

6 is for yokels who chew the cud, 5 for wannabe yokels, 4 for, not sure (white van man types in semis  probably), but more expensive & longer commute than 3

so that leaves 3... perfect! No wannabes & no yokels Cool. Quick tube ride to the centre too. cooler. No wonder prices always rise 🙂

If no longer need or want to go to the centre, what is the attraction?........ especially if property is falling, in real terms most certainly.

[yodigo]

6 minutes ago, winkie said:

If no longer need or want to go to the centre, what is the attraction?........ especially if property is falling, in real terms most certainly.

Oh, I agree. But it depends what else you want. Live next to your job, so no commute? Ease of access to mainline rail may be a priority, HS1 to Paris if that's your thing, or the airports (get a Zone 3 thameslink and you're off to Luton or Gatwick or change to Lizzie Line for City & Heathrow, easy peasy). Live next door to your fav footie club... sports ground... park ... who knows? 

[msi]

40 minutes ago, Huggy said:

Plateaus are the highest form of flattery.

very good...

[winkie]

19 minutes ago, yodigo said:

Oh, I agree. But it depends what else you want. Live next to your job, so no commute? Ease of access to mainline rail may be a priority, HS1 to Paris if that's your thing, or the airports (get a Zone 3 thameslink and you're off to Luton or Gatwick or change to Lizzie Line for City & Heathrow, easy peasy). Live next door to your fav footie club... sports ground... park ... who knows? 

What about the car ferry, can live close to all manner  of international airports they are all over the place if use it regularly......your favourite footy club could be the Arse, or Bristol City, ManU or Liverpool?...now if you said your parents and siblings all lived close by and had a strong supportive network close by, I could understand that.

[Timm]

1 hour ago, Stewy said:

I expected London to be worst hit...0.5% y-o-y is just peanuts really. 

Just to mention, this is Q2 2023 on Q2 2022. 

Wasn't that meant to be the bounce?

[Timm]

1 hour ago, Huggy said:

Plateaus are the highest form of flattery.

😁

It's all just mindless plateaus(tudes) really.

[yodigo]

37 minutes ago, winkie said:

What about the car ferry, can live close to all manner  of international airports they are all over the place if use it regularly......your favourite footy club could be the Arse, or Bristol City, ManU or Liverpool?...now if you said your parents and siblings all lived close by and had a strong supportive network close by, I could understand that.

But the near-London airports have loads more flights, and I mean loads more, so more choices of the flight times and prices. If Gatwick doesn't have it, Stansted will, or Heathrow, hop on your zone 3 train and you can go anywhere. Live close to Manchester airport and no flight to X, where you going to go? And it'll be a long slog to get there.

Famaly & Friends are a given and why most won't move.

London is 2 hours from the channel ferries (if you travel at the right times). Could live just south of London on the thameslink to make it easier of course. Still 24hr trains and easier to Portsmouth & Dover.

Edited October 11, 2023 by yodigo

[Locke]

It's called an inflection point.

And for the YoY to be negative, means the MoM must be a big enough fall to completely counter the previous months' rises.

Lastly, it does not take into account sales volume. Who knows what the makeup of houses being sold currently is? 

If people stopped buying and selling normal family cars, but the rate of antique and luxury car sales remained the same, car prices would appear to increase, even if the actual price of those luxury cars was falling compared to the previous year.

[winkie]

4 minutes ago, yodigo said:

But the near-London airports have loads more flights, and I mean loads more, so more choices of the flight times and prices. If Gatwick doesn't have it, Stansted will, or Heathrow, hop on your zone 3 train and you can go anywhere. Live close to Manchester airport and no flight to X, where you going to go? And it'll be a long slog to get there.

Famaly & Friends are a given and why most won't move.

They are not a given.......most people who live there do not have their close family down the road, there to help with childminding, sharing resources, family businesses etc...I have never used Heathrow so personally that wouldn't be a benefit.....doubt will ever fly long haul again now...those that need Heathrow usually need it to visit family that do not live near them.....

[yodigo]

20 minutes ago, winkie said:

They are not a given.......most people who live there do not have their close family down the road, there to help with childminding, sharing resources, family businesses etc...I have never used Heathrow so personally that wouldn't be a benefit.....doubt will ever fly long haul again now...those that need Heathrow usually need it to visit family that do not live near them.....

Plenty of short haul to Heathrow, used it recently 🙂 Let's put it this way, when Manchester airport was the closest for me, I used it once. Drove down to near-London airports many more times as that was where the flights were from. Even now only 3 flights a week from Manchester. At least 3 a day from near-London :-)

Edited October 11, 2023 by yodigo

[spxy]

very much doubt the 0.5% figure, some fudging going on

where is the data from?

Edited October 11, 2023 by spxy

[winkie]

8 minutes ago, yodigo said:

Plenty of short haul to Heathrow, used it recently 🙂 Let's put it this way, when Manchester airport was the closest for me, I used it once. Drove down to near-London airports many more times as that was where the flights were from. Even now only 3 flights a week from Manchester. At least 3 a day from near-London :-)

You must be a frequent flyer.......most people are not......I have a very convenient airport close to me, so not being near Heathrow is not a deal breaker.

[yodigo]

5 minutes ago, winkie said:

You must be a frequent flyer.......most people are not......I have a very convenient airport close to me, so not being near Heathrow is not a deal breaker.

Everyone has different likes & needs: not interested in footy, then no need to live next to Newcastle FC or West Ham FC. But lots of people like shops, cinemas, theatres, close to this and that & ease of access and all the "other junk" we on here rail at... which is why "Zone 3" has forever HPI 😀  It serves its purpose & at least we don't have to live there. I wouldn't - it's just part of the "anonymous what's-it-for" I went through as a youth to get to the centre.

[nickb1]

1 hour ago, Locke said:

If people stopped buying and selling normal family cars, but the rate of antique and luxury car sales remained the same, car prices would appear to increase, even if the actual price of those luxury cars was falling compared to the previous year.

good explanation of why you need mix adjustment. But hey, the -0.5% is worrying. Time for government to step in and "support the market" after all, real estate is an "engine of growth", right? Especially in London.