rantnrave Posted November 1, 2022 Share Posted November 1, 2022 While its rare to need a reason to quote Darth Vader, this will indeed be a day long remembered... 1. The Help to Buy scheme has formally closed after nearly a decade 2. Quantitative Tightening has begun after over a decade 3. The Nationwide index registered a first fall for over a year and the largest for over two years Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TerryBoi Posted November 1, 2022 Share Posted November 1, 2022 3 minutes ago, rantnrave said: While its rare to need a reason to quote Darth Vader, this will indeed be a day long remembered... 1. The Help to Buy scheme has formally closed after nearly a decade 2. Quantitative Tightening has begun after over a decade 3. The Nationwide index registered a first fall for over a year and the largest for over two years Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scottbeard Posted November 1, 2022 Share Posted November 1, 2022 11 minutes ago, rantnrave said: While its rare to need a reason to quote Darth Vader, this will indeed be a day long remembered... 1. The Help to Buy scheme has formally closed after nearly a decade 2. Quantitative Tightening has begun after over a decade 3. The Nationwide index registered a first fall for over a year and the largest for over two years Quite agree. It's all coming together. This is why I can't see anything other than a 20-40% fall in house prices over the next couple of years. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Social Justice League Posted November 1, 2022 Share Posted November 1, 2022 (edited) Yeah the games up. All eyes are now on the BOE and their decision on Thursday. If they had any balls at all, they would send rates straight to at least 5%. Edited November 1, 2022 by Social Justice League typo Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallingAwake Posted November 1, 2022 Share Posted November 1, 2022 26 minutes ago, rantnrave said: While its rare to need a reason to quote Darth Vader, this will indeed be a day long remembered... 1. The Help to Buy scheme has formally closed after nearly a decade 2. Quantitative Tightening has begun after over a decade 3. The Nationwide index registered a first fall for over a year and the largest for over two years Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bruce Banner Posted November 1, 2022 Share Posted November 1, 2022 "Quantitative tightening"... This should be interesting for savers. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheCountOfNowhere Posted November 1, 2022 Share Posted November 1, 2022 The head-winds are many Mortgage Rate Rises No Term Funding Inflation QT Ageing population Insane prices War nothing points to house prices shooting up, everything points to massive falls. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blobsy Posted November 1, 2022 Share Posted November 1, 2022 2 minutes ago, TheCountOfNowhere said: The head-winds are many Mortgage Rate Rises No Term Funding Inflation QT Ageing population Insane prices War nothing points to house prices shooting up, everything points to massive falls. It all results in a simple rebalancing of a market (property in this case), which as most here know is long overdue. You can fiddle and meddle as much as you like but the day of reckoning will always come. You can't beat the tide. There are those who will be cut adrift (bought in the last few years w/BIG mortgage etc.) but them's the breaks. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scottbeard Posted November 1, 2022 Share Posted November 1, 2022 8 minutes ago, TheCountOfNowhere said: Ageing population War nothing points to house prices shooting up, everything points to massive falls. Why does an ageing population suggest a massive house price fall? War is also a tricky one, as it depends (being somewhat callous) upon the balance of people killed to houses destroyed. The other things are massive headwinds I agree, but those stuck out to me in your list as odd ones? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TerryBoi Posted November 1, 2022 Share Posted November 1, 2022 5 minutes ago, Blobsy said: It all results in a simple rebalancing of a market (property in this case), which as most here know is long overdue. You can fiddle and meddle as much as you like but the day of reckoning will always come. You can't beat the tide. There are those who will be cut adrift (bought in the last few years w/BIG mortgage etc.) but them's the breaks. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maghull Mike Posted November 1, 2022 Share Posted November 1, 2022 14 minutes ago, TheCountOfNowhere said: The head-winds are many Mortgage Rate Rises No Term Funding Inflation QT Ageing population Insane prices War nothing points to house prices shooting up, everything points to massive falls. + Peek Cheap Oil Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Data Dave Posted November 1, 2022 Share Posted November 1, 2022 11 minutes ago, TheCountOfNowhere said: Ageing population Demographics is the biggest tailwind, for me, looking longer term at housing demand in the UK, ceteris paribus. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maghull Mike Posted November 1, 2022 Share Posted November 1, 2022 46 minutes ago, Bruce Banner said: "Quantitative tightening"... This should be interesting for savers. Why so? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheCountOfNowhere Posted November 1, 2022 Share Posted November 1, 2022 16 minutes ago, scottbeard said: Why does an ageing population suggest a massive house price fall? War is also a tricky one, as it depends (being somewhat callous) upon the balance of people killed to houses destroyed. The other things are massive headwinds I agree, but those stuck out to me in your list as odd ones? They'll all die and no one can afford to buy their houses, they'll become probate/forced sales. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Casual-observer Posted November 1, 2022 Share Posted November 1, 2022 (edited) 24 minutes ago, scottbeard said: Why does an ageing population suggest a massive house price fall? War is also a tricky one, as it depends (being somewhat callous) upon the balance of people killed to houses destroyed. The other things are massive headwinds I agree, but those stuck out to me in your list as odd ones? Because the younger demographic needing to prop these overinflated asset/house prices of the boomer generation are tapped out. Student debt, credit card debt, etc. Rising rates are amplifying the fundamental flaws in the debt pyramid scheme. The simple fact is they can't get the mortgage's nor the spending power to do it. They can bus in all the illegal immigrant's (consumers) they want but fundamentally the spending power just isn't there in enough of the working population burdened with high taxes, high debt and high cost of living. . Edited November 1, 2022 by Casual-observer Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bruce Banner Posted November 1, 2022 Share Posted November 1, 2022 34 minutes ago, Maghull Mike said: Why so? Because QE and TFS had the opposite effect so it would seem logical. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scottbeard Posted November 1, 2022 Share Posted November 1, 2022 39 minutes ago, TheCountOfNowhere said: They'll all die and no one can afford to buy their houses, they'll become probate/forced sales. 32 minutes ago, Casual-observer said: Because the younger demographic needing to prop these overinflated asset/house prices of the boomer generation are tapped out. Student debt, credit card debt, etc. Rising rates are amplifying the fundamental flaws in the debt pyramid scheme. The simple fact is they can't get the mortgage's nor the spending power to do it. I agree that student debt and credit card debt etc are all contributors to the brake on house prices. The fact that the population are ageing I guess eventually also must do, since they aren't generating productive income to generate wealth. I'm not sure that the fact they die per se reduces house prices very quickly, since the boomer generation will take decades to die off, with most of them not dying for another 10-15 years yet. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maghull Mike Posted November 1, 2022 Share Posted November 1, 2022 21 minutes ago, Bruce Banner said: Because QE and TFS had the opposite effect so it would seem logical. High rates ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Casual-observer Posted November 1, 2022 Share Posted November 1, 2022 1 minute ago, scottbeard said: I agree that student debt and credit card debt etc are all contributors to the brake on house prices. The fact that the population are ageing I guess eventually also must do, since they aren't generating productive income to generate wealth. I'm not sure that the fact they die per se reduces house prices very quickly, since the boomer generation will take decades to die off, with most of them not dying for another 10-15 years yet. You don't need them to die off in swathes in one fell swoop. What will be happening though is those whom need to sell either through retirement or death are facing a less well off demographic below them unable to prop their asset prices. The younger buyers below them throughout the pyramid just aren't wealthy enough and it will therefore cut through. Prices are set at the margins. It's a similar problem at the national level of the borrowing/spending issue, the cheap money era is over and the simple fact is the current size of the state built on a cheap money era can't be sustained anymore with a tax base that is frankly maxed out. It's why I find it odd how people are supporting the Hunt/Sunak approach when the bottom line is the current size of the state can no no more be sustained no more than house prices can. It's immoral they're trying to keep this pyramid going through obscene immigration levels and tax rises. Something at some point is going to snap. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roman Roady Posted November 1, 2022 Share Posted November 1, 2022 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scottbeard Posted November 1, 2022 Share Posted November 1, 2022 14 minutes ago, Casual-observer said: You don't need them to die off in swathes in one fell swoop. What will be happening though is those whom need to sell either through retirement or death are facing a less well off demographic below them unable to prop their asset prices. The younger buyers below them throughout the pyramid just aren't wealthy enough and it will therefore cut through. Prices are set at the margins. Sorry if this seems being pedantic now, but this is NOT a fall due an ageing population. This is a fall due to younger people in the usual FTB age range being less well off for other reasons, and it's those other reasons driving the fall. And this effect would be seen even if the population demographic was stable, not to do with it ageing. An ageing population IN ISOLATION has a very much slower effect. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Casual-observer Posted November 1, 2022 Share Posted November 1, 2022 7 minutes ago, scottbeard said: Sorry if this seems being pedantic now, but this is NOT a fall due an ageing population. This is a fall due to younger people in the usual FTB age range being less well off for other reasons, and it's those other reasons driving the fall. And this effect would be seen even if the population demographic was stable, not to do with it ageing. An ageing population IN ISOLATION has a very much slower effect. I disagree as the boomer generation in itself is a significant bulge in the demographic base. This bulge now hitting the retiring/death phase of their lives is going to present significant economic problems in my humble opinion. I do forsee it causing headwinds in the housing market that's then amplified with a younger population that doesn't have the equivalent spending power to compensate this bulge. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
athom Posted November 1, 2022 Share Posted November 1, 2022 1 hour ago, TheCountOfNowhere said: They'll all die and no one can afford to buy their houses, they'll become probate/forced sales. best vaccine ever Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bruce Banner Posted November 1, 2022 Share Posted November 1, 2022 1 hour ago, Maghull Mike said: High rates ? Higher. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maghull Mike Posted November 1, 2022 Share Posted November 1, 2022 18 minutes ago, Bruce Banner said: Higher. Oh YUMMY Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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