London's economy 20 years from now?

[Horseradish]

6 hours ago, Dorkins said:

I went into London yesterday to meet with a friend of mine who works in a STEM research group at a London university, he said they have multiple postdoctoral research positions open but they are getting essentially no applications from EU citizens so the positions are staying open and the group is shrinking as older postdocs leave. This is a high powered lab that previously never needed to advertise positions as they got so many prospective applicants. EU scientists don't want to come to London anymore.

He also told me about a German postdoc who came to visit the lab a year or two ago who was thinking of coming to London to work and wanted to bring his stay-at-home wife and children. The postdocs who were already there told him not to do it as his family's quality of life would be poor on a postdoc wage (around £37k plus defined benefit pension). He stayed in Germany.

It's sad but true that UK research is taking a belting. See also: Europe-wide research projects. UK is just cut out.

[Horseradish]

6 hours ago, Dorkins said:

Yes, Transport for London is reporting falling passenger numbers.

I thought that was because of more work-one-day-a-week-from-home arrangements?

[Dorkins]

1 minute ago, Horseradish said:

I thought that was because of more work-one-day-a-week-from-home arrangements?

There's no evidence to back up that explanation though, it's a just so story.

[Horseradish]

6 minutes ago, Dorkins said:

 There's no evidence to back up that explanation though, it's a just so story.

Good point.

[winkie]

35 minutes ago, Dorkins said:

There's no evidence to back up that explanation though, it's a just so story.

Look and will see plenty of evidence that more people are choosing to work from home most of the time....more employers are giving their staff the option to do so.?

https://www.irishtimes.com/life-and-style/health-family/home-work-why-more-people-are-opting-for-remote-working-1.3440804

[Peter Hun]

18 hours ago, Dorkins said:

All this stuff about London being a desirable global city is just so much "it's different this time" speak. People vote with their feet, if there aren't enough good reasons to live and work in London they will go elsewhere.

Which is why London is booming.

[GregBowman]

9 minutes ago, Peter Hun said:

Which is why London is booming.

Exactly - London will ebb and flow 

sort of nothing to see here move on 

The London is a s*** hole it’s about to collapse meme is a little like looking at the biggest kid in the playground being beaten up and thinking I will be ok even though I am a little Provencial runt with a fraction of the economic clout 

[GregBowman]

11 hours ago, winkie said:

Look and will see plenty of evidence that more people are choosing to work from home most of the time....more employers are giving their staff the option to do so.?

https://www.irishtimes.com/life-and-style/health-family/home-work-why-more-people-are-opting-for-remote-working-1.3440804

Just a precursor to off shoring or AI - so enjoy it while you can folks 

Once work can be done remotely it can be done anywhere or by anything 

Edited June 28, 2018 by GregBowman

[winkie]

43 minutes ago, GregBowman said:

Just a precursor to off shoring or AI - so enjoy it while you can folks 

Once work can be done remotely it can be done anywhere or by anything 

True.......I just can't understand why a person has to travel on an expensive two hour a day commute to sit in an office all day, surely most stuff they do there can be done adapted to do at home, and a home outside commuting distance from big cities is both cheaper and can offer office space......

Fair enough if have customers to visit or people to meet........the worse paid people like shop workers, drivers, cleaners, hotel workers, chefs do have to be there, travel there to serve customers......teachers and doctors can work anywhere.....?

[Dorkins]

1 hour ago, Peter Hun said:

London is booming.

London was booming, not sure it still is. Migration from the EU drying up, TfL passenger numbers falling, house prices dropping. Could all be signs of tipping into an economic and population decline.

[Dorkins]

This graph shows that not only are more people leaving London to move to the rest of the UK than are moving from the rest of the UK to London, but that net rate is actually accelerating. Does that seem like something that would happen to a booming city?

[hotblack42]

22 minutes ago, Dorkins said:

This graph shows that not only are more people leaving London to move to the rest of the UK than are moving from the rest of the UK to London, but that net rate is actually accelerating. Does that seem like something that would happen to a booming city?

Pretty gloomy reading for Letting agents, EAs and all the other parasites.
So just the greenhorns keeping the plates spinning then?  If their parents start sucking a thoughtful tooth about subsidising their kid's 'go at London' things could get very interesting quite quickly.  This isn't going to reverse very quickly either barring some unforeseen event that sucks people back in.

Edited June 28, 2018 by hotblack42

[Peter Hun]

Right.. moving to the suburbs to commute has been the norm for 100 years. They still work in London. Commuting distance keeps increasing.

I'd say 80% of my central London office don't live in London.

[hotblack42]

4 minutes ago, Peter Hun said:

Right.. moving to the suburbs to commute has been the norm for 100 years. They still work in London. Commuting distance keeps increasing.

I'd say 80% of my central London office don't live in London.

Well we can't see the raw data but my assumption is that this is Greater London, ie. people are fleeing as far out as Harrow, Enfield, Romford and Croydon.  Our office is by the Monument.  About 40% live in London.  Regardless, from the perspective of anyone looking rent or buy (anywhere decent) in London this is very interesting downward pressure.

[Steppenpig]

38 minutes ago, hotblack42 said:

Pretty gloomy reading for Letting agents, EAs and all the other parasites.
So just the greenhorns keeping the plates spinning then? ...

And foreign immigrants. The chart is "internal" miration

[Dorkins]

28 minutes ago, Peter Hun said:

Right.. moving to the suburbs to commute has been the norm for 100 years. They still work in London. Commuting distance keeps increasing.

I'd say 80% of my central London office don't live in London.

The 2015 and 2016 numbers look like growth in rail passenger arrivals into central London may have stalled, will be interesting to see if the 2017 change in passenger numbers is negative as TfL saw in 2017 for its rail, tube and bus operations:

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/633285/rail-passenger-crowding-2016.pdf

[Peter Hun]

26 minutes ago, hotblack42 said:

London this is very interesting downward pressure.

There is such massive pent up demand (50% renting?) that any minor reduction in population won't make much difference. Falling prices are more affected by uncertainty and fear due to Brexit, ridiculously high prices and interest rate rises. Oh, and stamp duty, thats a killer.

[Peter Hun]

4 minutes ago, Dorkins said:

The 2015 and 2016 numbers look like growth in rail passenger arrivals into central London may have stalled, will be interesting to see if the 2017 change in passenger numbers is negative as TfL saw in 2017 for its rail, tube and bus operations:

And good job too, the overcrowding is ridiculous.

[winkie]

41 minutes ago, Peter Hun said:

Right.. moving to the suburbs to commute has been the norm for 100 years. They still work in London. Commuting distance keeps increasing.

I'd say 80% of my central London office don't live in London.

The graphs above tell a story.......agree people used to move out to live and travel in, but moving further out just to work in an office  miles away five days a week starts to make an impact on quality of time.....the ripple effect of cost of housing rising within a two hour commute starts not to add up. Working in London could be working anywhere, as soon as the working day finished back on the train again, no time to use the London facilities that are the benefits of living in london........the reason could be that the pay paid makes it worthwhile for now......but if you ask many people their plan is not to continue the grind, they have other future plans in mind.?

[Dorkins]

9 minutes ago, Peter Hun said:

There is such massive pent up demand (50% renting?) that any minor reduction in population won't make much difference.

The thing is, that pent up demand is largely pretty skint after 15 years of rising rents and no real wage increases. The gap between what people with London equity can afford to pay and what people with only wages and savings can afford to pay is enormous. Plus London has the highest rate of IO mortgages in the country, and BTL purchases have dried up in London faster than anywhere else. The London property market is supported by air, when it really starts to go the price bottom (the point at which those 50% renters are priced back in) is probably >70% below where we are now.

[winkie]

25 minutes ago, Peter Hun said:

There is such massive pent up demand (50% renting?) that any minor reduction in population won't make much difference. Falling prices are more affected by uncertainty and fear due to Brexit, ridiculously high prices and interest rate rises. Oh, and stamp duty, thats a killer.

Demand means little.....thousands all over the planet would like to live in London if where they are living is perceived to be worse.....that includes people sharing or paying high rents living in London......they have to be:

READY......WILLING.....and.......ABLE.?

[Si1]

15 hours ago, GregBowman said:

The London is a s*** hole it’s about to collapse meme is a little like looking at the biggest kid in the playground being beaten up and thinking I will be ok even though I am a little Provencial runt with a fraction of the economic clout 

2

That's a bit harsh - lower costs despite still being regional substantial university cities with strong graduates and good infrastructure really are a strength that London doesn't have - due to its costs. The two loci have different economic comparative advantages, there's nothing wrong with that either.

The little provincial runt's advantage might be precisely the fact that he isn't the conspicuous big guy with its attendant costs of shoes, gold watch and what have you.

In the past, Manchester, Birmingham, Glasgow, Bristol (etc) have shown significant economic strength being not particularly dependent on London's strength, but being mutually beneficial. I don't see London turning into Gotham like some do, but I think a more balanced (regionally and economically) country would again be mutually beneficial, I suspect, but I'm not certain, that is coming.

Edited June 28, 2018 by Si1

[spyguy]

9 hours ago, Dorkins said:

The thing is, that pent up demand is largely pretty skint after 15 years of rising rents and no real wage increases. The gap between what people with London equity can afford to pay and what people with only wages and savings can afford to pay is enormous. Plus London has the highest rate of IO mortgages in the country, and BTL purchases have dried up in London faster than anywhere else. The London property market is supported by air, when it really starts to go the price bottom (the point at which those 50% renters are priced back in) is probably >70% below where we are now.

And MMR.

The old commuting trick of using a London wage to buy a nice house 1h out no longer works as the commuting cost is took out of the house hold income used to calculate the mortgage.

And the novel idea if making train users pay for the cost trains. Train fares have been rising way ahead of wages for almost 10 years.

[spyguy]

On 22/06/2018 at 17:58, StAlex said:

What about greater working from home - I can only see this increasingly rapidly with better tech and sky high prime central London rents. Hot desking is becoming the norm now, surely just one step on? 

I’d hate to be in PCL commercial real estate - massive towers in the City and no idea who will fill them all! 

Less work from, more the decimation on finsec jobs.

[spyguy]

15 hours ago, GregBowman said:

Exactly - London will ebb and flow 

sort of nothing to see here move on 

The London is a s*** hole it’s about to collapse meme is a little like looking at the biggest kid in the playground being beaten up and thinking I will be ok even though I am a little Provencial runt with a fraction of the economic clout 

That ignores that London pop was falling up til mid 80s.

It took big bang amd massive expansion of finsec to draw people vack into london.

Now finsector has been decimated, youll see the working london population fall.