London's economy 20 years from now?

[Si1]

No doubt London will always be an important global hub.

But how will it's economy differ in twenty years time compared to now?

Will it have given up some of its global finance functions for a greater technology sector?

Will HS2 allow it to effectively expand its capacity, drawing in northern conurbations as satellite economic campuses?

What will net migration be?

[Big Orange]

Private militarized security?

[Guest]

I see London in 20 years time on a par with Judge Dredds dystopian world, 20 more years of welfare funded breeding should just about get us there.

[zugzwang]

The UK population will be >80 million in twenty years time. London the capital of the Third World.

Industrial civilisation will be just about over. The living will envy the dead.

[thehowler]

Well a lot's changed since the 90s, but not that much. The food's got better.

I think English as global lingua franca, Higher Education and being buffer zone between New World and Eurozone might save our bacon.

[Maynardgravy]

1 hour ago, thehowler said:

Well a lot's changed since the 90s, but not that much. The food's got better.

I think English as global lingua franca, Higher Education and being buffer zone between New World and Eurozone might save our bacon.

There won't be any bacon allowed.

[Dorkins]

In 20 years the population of London will be 0.5-1 million lower than it is today as UK-born continue their net migration out in search of quality of life (cheaper and better quality housing) and EU citizens stop coming.

As the global credit bubble deflates (slowly and/or via a series of crashes) the financial sector will shrink from 20% of GDP back down to 5-6%. Income inequality in London will fall dramatically. London will struggle to replace the financial sector as a source of cashflow. Fintech, biotech etc are all good fun but they're not economic workhorses you can power a megalopolis with. In 20 years London will be a city in slow decline, lots of empty office space in zone 1.

Being able to get to Birmingham slightly faster will make no difference to anything.

Nominal house prices in London will be lower in 2038 than they are today.

Edited June 21, 2018 by Dorkins

[Byron]

I agree.

London and the UK will slowly decline to something like 1950s Spain.

End of an Empire, not a bang but a whimper.

Emigration will reach an all time high.

Law and order will not be as we know it, much of it privatised in the Kray type of way.

Citizens will carry arms, cars will sport steel grilles like Police riot vans.

Just like much of Europe domestic houses will have bars over all window, high walls and barbed wire.

Edited June 21, 2018 by Byron

[Mikhail Liebenstein]

3 hours ago, inbruges said:

I see London in 20 years time on a par with Judge Dredds dystopian world, 20 more years of welfare funded breeding should just about get us there.

Megacity 1?

[Mikhail Liebenstein]

4 minutes ago, Byron said:

I agree.

London and the UK will slowly decline to something like 1950s Spain.

End of an Empire, not a bang but a whimper.

Emigration will reach an all time high.

Law and order will not be as we know it, much of it privatised in the Kray type of way.

Citizens will carry arms, cars will sport steel grilles like Police riot vans.

Just like much of Europe domestic houses will have bars over all window, high walls and barbed wire.

Just had to dig this video up again. Just says it all:

 

 

 

[Maynardgravy]

I think people thinking there will be a UK population decline are dreaming. Africa has only just started its unstoppable overspill and however bad things get here it'll be nothing like that fook up. The pope will finally tell the Catholic world that contraception is a good thing. It will be too late. The UK economy will be selling piles of bricks to each other. Only they will be literal piles of bricks. Think children of men meets idiocracy.

[Wayward]

Maybe take some clues from demographic trends and the behavioural propensities of the various groups.

[Dorkins]

26 minutes ago, Maynardgravy said:

I think people thinking there will be a UK population decline are dreaming. 

I never said there would be a UK population decline, I said the population of London would decline. It happened before after the 1931 census that the population of London fell steadily for decades even though the population of the UK was rising. People moved out of London in search of a better life. My grandparents on my mother's side were part of that emigration.

Edited June 21, 2018 by Dorkins

[thehowler]

54 minutes ago, Dorkins said:

Being able to get to Birmingham slightly faster will make no difference to anything.

Yeah, it strikes me as odd that HS2 won't connect to Oxford, despite all the rhetoric about the Ox-Cambridge corridor being so important.

Heathrow's dead in the water too, they really need to think about building another London hub, terrifying as that might be to the VIs.

London has changed so much in the last ten years, I can't pretend that I have any sense of where it's heading or what it is.

[thehowler]

44 minutes ago, Byron said:

Citizens will carry arms, cars will sport steel grilles like Police riot vans.

So back to the era when gentlemen carried a revolver in their hip pocket, and a sturdy cane to ward off footpads!

[Dorkins]

43 minutes ago, Byron said:

Law and order will not be as we know it, much of it privatised in the Kray type of way.

Citizens will carry arms, cars will sport steel grilles like Police riot vans.

Just like much of Europe domestic houses will have bars over all window, high walls and barbed wire.

This seems a bit silly. With a welfare state and a falling population (good for workers/wages) I don't see why London would become noticeably violent in day to day life.

[Maynardgravy]

5 minutes ago, Dorkins said:

I never said there would be a UK population decline, I said the population of London would decline. It happened before after the 1931 census that the population of London fell steadily for decades even though the population of the UK was rising. People moved out of London in search of a better life. My grandparents on my mother's side were part of that emigration.

Fair enough. Still can't see it though. If anything London will grow shanty town style suburbs at this rate. blind eyes already being turned to beds in sheds.

[Dorkins]

4 minutes ago, thehowler said:

Heathrow's dead in the water too, they really need to think about building another London hub, terrifying as that might be to the VIs.

London's main airport should always have been located somewhere between London and Milton Keynes. Lots of land, low population density, good rail and road connections to both London and the Midlands.

[stop_the_craziness]

Not in my back yard, thank you very much  ?

[thewig]

2 hours ago, Byron said:

I agree.

London and the UK will slowly decline to something like 1950s Spain.

End of an Empire, not a bang but a whimper.

Emigration will reach an all time high.

Law and order will not be as we know it, much of it privatised in the Kray type of way.

Citizens will carry arms, cars will sport steel grilles like Police riot vans.

Just like much of Europe domestic houses will have bars over all window, high walls and barbed wire.

Good enough for a rental bruv

[Big Orange]

4 hours ago, Byron said:

 

Law and order will not be as we know it, much of it privatised in the Kray type of way.

Citizens will carry arms, cars will sport steel grilles like Police riot vans.

Yeah, that seems similar to how things are in flagging 2nd to 3rd world nations, like South Africa or the Philippines, where rule of law disintegrated decades ago (or was never properly established to begin with) and vigilante groups routinely kill on sight many criminals (with insanely backlogged, permanently broken down courts not helping).

It does feel like the UK courts are permanently breaking down and our shrinking police service, hamstrung every step of the way by different factors, is forming a dangerous vacuum.

Edited June 22, 2018 by Big Orange

[dropbear]

12 minutes ago, Big Orange said:

 

It does feel like the UK courts are permanently breaking down and our shrinking police service, hamstrung every step of the way by different factors, is forming a dangerous vacuum.

Don't worry, we have a burgeoning Sharia court system coming in to play - 80 courts so far. In 20 years we might be lucky to have another 80.

[scottbeard]

7 hours ago, Big Orange said:

It does feel like the UK courts are permanently breaking down and our shrinking police service, hamstrung every step of the way by different factors, is forming a dangerous vacuum.

I agree - I think the deterioration in core public services is alarming.  I would hate for London to end up with the same "no-go areas" problems as New York or Johannesburg.  The public are - slowly - coming to the realisation that only MASSIVE tax rises will sort this out: the £20bn for the NHS is the first of what I think will be a real swing towards the UK becoming a higher tax society to try and address this.  Either Labour will get in and do it, or the Tories will have to do it anyway to keep them out.

[Errol]

White flight will accelerate massively in the next 10+ years. Everything outside of Mayfair and the very centre of London will turn into a ghetto - looking like something you might find in Mexico or Somalia.

It's actually quite a lot like this now, but the effects will get worse.

Edited June 22, 2018 by Errol

[Locke]

12 hours ago, Dorkins said:

This seems a bit silly. With a welfare state and a falling population (good for workers/wages) I don't see why London would become noticeably violent in day to day life.

The former demographics were far more peaceful than the up and coming newcomers.