Nationwide July 2017 - Prediction Thread

[TheCountOfNowhere]

5 minutes ago, houseface2000 said:

How cynical they are measures to help us ;-)

How criminal are they ?

[Atma]

The count of Nowhere, I respect your views. I am waiting for the time I can buy a house at a decent price. Where I am now, renting in chorlton Manchester I am disheartened by the fact that houses do go very quick and the prices are above the average wage in this area. I don't know who buys them.  They are living in an area where some car insurance won't cover you.. I found that out to my cost when I moved in. It's seen as a risk both for cars and house burglaries. Areas like this seem to reflect the Nationwide data. 

So why. 

The only reason is that the BBC moved in when they opened Salford. The houses have been gentrified and there are loads of big cars that block the roads.

i want to have my own house and I have lived here and my parents lived here in my own home. But it's seems here too too the greed of vested interests has ruined an area. Renting is really expensive here too. 

 

[TheCountOfNowhere]

4 minutes ago, Kosmin said:

 I think it is still possible the government could do more to prop up housing.

I think it is possible for millions of young people to revolt, string up bankers, vote for extreme right wing parties, leave the country.

The government can set prices by simply buying up stock ( been suggested by 12 tory mp ).

Tax me 70% tfor that and I'll leave.

Force the young to be slaves, they'll leave.

Ultimately, the bubble is doomed.  Might as well collapse it now, blame BrExit and try and manage this mess better

[TheCountOfNowhere]

2 minutes ago, Atma said:

The count of Nowhere, I respect your views. I am waiting for the time I can buy a house at a decent price. Where I am now, renting in chorlton Manchester I am disheartened by the fact that houses do go very quick and the prices are above the average wage in this area. I don't know who buys them.  They are living in an area where some car insurance won't cover you.. I found that out to my cost when I moved in. It's seen as a risk both for cars and house burglaries. Areas like this seem to reflect the Nationwide data. 

So why. 

The only reason is that the BBC moved in when they opened Salford. The houses have been gentrified and there are loads of big cars that block the roads.

i want to have my own house and I have lived here and my parents lived here in my own home. But it's seems here too too the greed of vested interests has ruined an area. Renting is really expensive here too. 

 

I know what you are saying, this is why I say, just get the f**k out of the UK.

Ultimately, Who are these people going to sell to ?

Will they just rent their houses our to locals at rents no one locally can afford ?

Sadly, the BBC wont be going anywhere and these people will have taken over the area, for now.  

You will have to move to a more desirable area  

 

[Guest]

6 minutes ago, Kosmin said:

Interest rate cuts and QE weren't just targeted at housing though. If they were focused on housing they would have implemented more policies like help to buy and stamp duty cuts. I think it is still possible the government could do more to prop up housing.

I think you and a couple of others are wrong, and I am going to take great delight in telling you so, as I am sure you will also.

I am alone here I know, but I never thought the financial crisis was down to imported problems from the USA, and yes I think in part QE and low interest rates were implemented to help the housing market  survive, the housing market and how people feel about  their housing wealth has a large impact on how our economy functions. The banks have got the country into a near £2 Trillion personal debt mountain, just a small percentage of that is a nice little earner for someone each year.

We are all so heavily in debt that one small event could cause the house of cards to tumble. It is true that Brexit might be the reason at last the housing market crashes, but it will not be the cause. It was always going to happen, if not Brexit then something else. The problem in the UK is excessive debt taken to the max.

[TheCountOfNowhere]

10 minutes ago, wotsthat said:

I think you and a couple of others are wrong, and I am going to take great delight in telling you so, as I am sure you will also.

I am alone here I know, but I never thought the financial crisis was down to imported problems from the USA, and yes I think in part QE and low interest rates were implemented to help the housing market  survive, the housing market and how people feel about  their housing wealth has a large impact on how our economy functions. The banks have got the country into a near £2 Trillion personal debt mountain, just a small percentage of that is a nice little earner for someone each year.

We are all so heavily in debt that one small event could cause the house of cards to tumble. It is true that Brexit might be the reason at last the housing market crashes, but it will not be the cause. It was always going to happen, if not Brexit then something else. The problem in the UK is excessive debt taken to the max.

Cant disagree with that except "We are all so heavily in debt", that is not true.

The 2007 bank collapsed happened due to the credit crunch, the 201X UK housing market collapse will happen for a variety of reasons, least of all the UK sub-prine collapse.

As you say, a collapse was always going to happen, but the politicians can/will blame it on Briexit just so they can get their own way (ultimately).

[Bruce Banner]

22 minutes ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

I'd like to believe this Bruce, do you have anything to back up this claim ?

No, just a gut feeling, but I do know first hand how to massage figures and it's what I would do in their position.

Years ago, as a young sales manager, I learnt how to keep the board happy by showing a steady monthly order input rather than having good months and bad months.

There are many tricks, but the easiest is to "forget" to enter sales until the next month or bring them forward if necessary. Of course, in the long term, it all comes out in the wash, but short term it smooths the figures beautifully.

Although they would not admit it, many companies do the same at the end of their financial year to avoid showing a loss, or excess profit.

[TheCountOfNowhere]

2 minutes ago, Bruce Banner said:

No, just a gut feeling, but I do know first hand how to massage figures and it's what I would do in their position.

Years ago, as a young sales manager, I learnt how to keep the board happy by showing a steady monthly order input rather than having good months and bad months.

There are many tricks, but the easiest is to "forget" to enter sales until the next month or bring them forward if necessary. Of course, in the long term, it all comes out in the wash, but short term it smooths the figures beautifully.

Although they would not admit it, many companies do the same at the end of their financial year to avoid showing a loss, or excess profit.

Cheers Bruce, I only asked as I had the same sort of feeling, 1 does seem to be up and 1 down.

Spot on with the figures too.

You cant polish a turd, but you can roll it in glitter, but ultimately you just end up with a shiny turd.

[Freki]

1 hour ago, Habitationi Bulla said:

Tightening of credit could be a pin if it happens but others have stated banks are still throwing mortgages at people.

Reckon landlord Hammond will bring in S24 for all taxpayers and bring it in early in his upcoming budget or just go for workers paypackets.

No it is a slow death, tightening on lending. I am talking about a panic and people  scrambling for cash like in 2008

[Kosmin]

19 minutes ago, wotsthat said:

I think you and a couple of others are wrong, and I am going to take great delight in telling you so, as I am sure you will also.

I am alone here I know, but I never thought the financial crisis was down to imported problems from the USA, and yes I think in part QE and low interest rates were implemented to help the housing market  survive, the housing market and how people feel about  their housing wealth has a large impact on how our economy functions. The banks have got the country into a near £2 Trillion personal debt mountain, just a small percentage of that is a nice little earner for someone each year.

We are all so heavily in debt that one small event could cause the house of cards to tumble. It is true that Brexit might be the reason at last the housing market crashes, but it will not be the cause. It was always going to happen, if not Brexit then something else. The problem in the UK is excessive debt taken to the max.

Do you have some convoluted or smart-**** argument for why it's not possible to cut stamp duty etc.? (e.g. nothing can be done because we have a minority government)

I don't think it's at all likely, but my point was more that the government response in 2007/8 was not targeted specifically at housing, but at the economy more generally. By contrast, in 2013-2014 Osborne was almost entirely focused on the housing. That gives an idea of what can be done if the government is determined to prop up housing (I hope this is all moot, because public opinion seems more in favour of falling prices these days, but governments don't always respond to public opinion).

[TheCountOfNowhere]

What I find odd, and maybe someone can tell me I am wrong.

 

Why is this GREAT news not being heralded by the BBC and SKY ?

 

[Kosmin]

 

39 minutes ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

The government can set prices by simply buying up stock ( been suggested by 12 tory mp ).

I hadn't heard this. Please name and shame them.

[TheCountOfNowhere]

18 minutes ago, Kosmin said:

I hadn't heard this. Please name and shame them.

It was for new builds IIRC ( tory party funders being the builders ).

This would be extreme criminality in my book.

 

Just looking for a link.  I had it on twitter before I gave it up....

Cant find a link to it :-|

Edited August 1, 2017 by TheCountOfNowhere

[mathschoc]

8 minutes ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

What I find odd, and maybe someone can tell me I am wrong.

 

Why is this GREAT news not being heralded by the BBC and SKY ?

 

+1 normally there is no hesitation.

Dodgy figures I think, at least the picture NW paint is not what I see in South East

[lombardo]

I don't get too upset by such news/propping because the further they stretch it, the harder it will fall. Significant HPI is now impossible. Market psychology, inflation, a credit crunch and a black swan event will kill the prices.

[henry the king]

At least the rampant hpi has ended. In real terms house prices are flat in the last year. 

[Barnsey]

5 minutes ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

What I find odd, and maybe someone can tell me I am wrong.

 

Why is this GREAT news not being heralded by the BBC and SKY ?

 

Speaks volumes!

Let's just remind ourselves of what the Nationwide was saying at the start of 2007:

http://www.independent.co.uk/property/house-and-home/is-2007-the-year-in-which-house-prices-will-finally-crash-430922.html

Quote

The mortgage lender Nationwidemakes a similar forecast - gains of between 5 and 8 per cent - and expects London and the South-east to do best.

Have a really careful look at the article and compare it with the forecasts from various sources right now, 10 years later.

To summarise:

BEAR CAMP - Economist, University Professor, Asset Managers (smart money)

MIDDLE GROUND - Think tank, Halifax, Property Research

BULL CAMP - National Association of Estate Agents, Nationwide, Rightmove

CRAZY BULLS - Council of Mortgage Lenders, RICS, Estate Agents

Doesn't take a genius to see the pattern does it? Now apply those sentiment patterns to what you see right now.

[Guest]

35 minutes ago, Kosmin said:

Do you have some convoluted or smart-**** argument for why it's not possible to cut stamp duty etc.? (e.g. nothing can be done because we have a minority government)

I don't think it's at all likely, but my point was more that the government response in 2007/8 was not targeted specifically at housing, but at the economy more generally. By contrast, in 2013-2014 Osborne was almost entirely focused on the housing. That gives an idea of what can be done if the government is determined to prop up housing (I hope this is all moot, because public opinion seems more in favour of falling prices these days, but governments don't always respond to public opinion).

Firstly, don't be rude, you would not speak to anyone like that in day to day life, don't do it here.

 

Nothing they could possibly do now would match the impact of reducing base rates from 5% to sub 1% or the £375 Billion QE, I will not list them all again, but whatever they come out with now will just be gimmicks which in reality will make little difference except try to give off a fake impression of confidence that will not work. Nothing will ever beat that plunge in interest rates, that was a noticable saving in homeowners pockets that made it feel like Xmas day 10 fold.

They could do all the things you mentioned, but where is the money going to come from, the tax payer?

Plus we have moved on 10 years and the debt burden is even worse now. You start printing more money or over spending and see how the markets will now handle it. I personally don't think there is a thing that can be implemented now to save the property market except token gestues, which I agree they will probably try.

 

 

[TheCountOfNowhere]

27 minutes ago, TwoTearsInABucket said:

 

A broken clock is right twice a day. Your clock has been ticking almost 10 years. I'd be careful about putting a 201X date on a collapse. Sure one is bound to come, but what has happened in the last 10 years you have been here?

Let's see...prices collapse...price stagnated at collapsed price..IRS moved to 0...money printing theft started....corrupt tw#ts come to power off the backs of  promising to sort our the banks, the debt, house prices, they then proceeded to do the opposite. Scotland almost voted to he free if Westminster. UK voted to be free of the EU.  House prices still not reached real world average if 2007 and won't due to stagnant wages...htb2 scrapped...FLS scrapped...us rate rise...Chinese money controls....Canadians popping their own bubble...BTL taxation...term funding crime spree, regular terrorist attacks...£ collapsing again....tightening...Torys throwing an election...Corbyn almost coming to power and got married...had children...realised how f**king corrupt the UK was...made plans to leave....made/earned loads of cash that a boomer will not be seeing.

Everyone's clock ticks. My alarms gone off tho.

I'd have bought a house in 2010 had there been any to buy.  There was just endless pages of over priced sh*t up for sale for 5 years, saved by low IRs and QE.  Over priced sh*t that some mug from London or BTLer has "scooped up at a bargain price" post 2012 when FLS scheme was introduced  It's gone on too long now, it's no longer about house prices, it's about society and freedom.

 

What have you been doing....

Started primary School....left secondary school  

Wait, you'd need 11 years for that.

Edited August 1, 2017 by TheCountOfNowhere

[Mr Banks]

This is not surprising there are few forced sellers and still many enthusiatic buyers. Credit is free flowing so i cant see any sign of a crash or any negative indexes this year. TBH these mortgage lenders indexes are only cover a small section of the market and of course ignore cash buyers. There is a weighting of indexes i use with land registry being at the top halifax and nation wide in the middle and rightmove and "@TheCountOfNowhere random single property posted on HPC today thread index" somewhere near the bottom.

As an aside @TheCountOfNowhere as you can see from the "are the shires crashing?" thread you clock has been stopped for years. There is no sign of a big correction and your blame that list of events just looks ranty i aggree some are bad but life is often about the powerful screwing the less well off. It can and will get worse before people rise up you have been predicting revolt bankers on lamposts politicians hanging from trees for a while now. It hasn't happened even the riots of last week were quickly dealt with. And that last insult about schooling at the end sums up the quality of this debate from your end.

I agree about society and freedom thigh although this is still a niche view about HPI being bad certainly my family see me as at worse an ill informed nutter because i didn't buy in 2012 (even buying an overpriced house in 2012 would have seen me paying masively less than compared to now).

[Kosmin]

1 hour ago, wotsthat said:

I think you and a couple of others are wrong, and I am going to take great delight in telling you so, as I am sure you will also.

 

31 minutes ago, wotsthat said:

Firstly, don't be rude, you would not speak to anyone like that in day to day life, don't do it here.

Taking great delight in telling someone they are wrong seems rude to me!

35 minutes ago, wotsthat said:

Nothing they could possibly do now would match the impact of reducing base rates from 5% to sub 1% or the £375 Billion QE.

Debt forgiveness?

[Guest]

3 minutes ago, Kosmin said:

 

Taking great delight in telling someone they are wrong seems rude to me!

Debt forgiveness?

????

How is that being rude when I am suggesting that I will take delight in everyone on here getting a huge correction in property prices when they thought they might not just yet.

And we do want property prices fall yes??

[Kosmin]

40 minutes ago, wotsthat said:

They could do all the things you mentioned, but where is the money going to come from, the tax payer?

The money come from anywhere. If they try further crazy measures it would be lead to higher inflation (prices wouldn't go up in real terms, but there would be a "flight to real values"). If they are really committing to preventing falls they could do so and turn the UK into Zimbabwe, Weimar Germany, Venezuela or numerous others. I don't think this will happen, but it suggests the no.1 concern of the government isn't high house prices, and this certainly wasn't particularly high on the government's agenda in 2007-8.

[Kosmin]

^ above should say "The money doesn't come from anywhere."

[TheCountOfNowhere]

Just now, TwoTearsInABucket said:

 

Got out. Bought a house in another country for cash.

Why you bothering with madness then ?