BoE investigates 'terrifying' rise in borrowing to fund new car purchases

[markyh]

10 hours ago, Gigantic Purple Slug said:

Are they actually aiming at all the market though ?

If so their product range would cover a range of vehicles, from the smallest to the largest.

In fact they appear like they are aiming at the more BMW/Audi segment of the market, with mid to large saloons rather than offering hatchbacks/super minis.

I don't see that they have a car equivalent to say a ford focus supermini, or VW golf which is probably one of the best selling cars in the UK.

Of course, they may have aimed at that market segment because that would be the only one that would carry the increased cost of EV in the early years.

 

Tesla C class hatch is coming in 2025 at about £25k for 300 mile range. They wont do this until they have plenty of 4680 cells as that format will be so much more cost, space, and energy efficient the battery costs will be under $50 kwh. So a 75kwh pack will cost under $4k in /battery cells. 

Tesla's plan has always been top down, as the smaller the car, the less profits, but it is in the plan. 

[markyh]

10 hours ago, Peter Hun said:

 

There is plenty of competition who are outgrowing the Americans in their own markets,  VW are selling 2:1 versus third place Tesla in Europe 

 

 

i don't believe that for 1 second, maybe only in certain isolated months where Tesla dont have a ship arriving. /look at it quarterly, on months /tesla boats arrive, on 2021 annually next month when we get the figures and Tesla's /=EU sales will be no.1 and trash VW . 

And 2022 berlin is now producing, so the eu competition are really screwed as Tesla are no long supply constrained in Europe. 

[markyh]

10 hours ago, Peter Hun said:

The ID.3 is the golf equivalent, Tesla dont compete in this segment as you say.

The only real cheap small car is the Dacia Spring. Problem is that the battery's are expensive so making cheap small cars is impossible. There is an FT article explaining the legacy laggards (Toyota) rightly point out that  the rest of the world will never be able to afford the cars or charging  infrastructure. 

Hence the interest in Hydrogen/ammonia. 

Lol, cant afford £50k 300kwh rapids, so they will use £2m 700 bar hydrogen filling stations with half a dozen pumps. Hydrogen is worldwide fantasy for passenger cars, no one can afford or is will to pay for the filling stations and the cars cost more that Tesla's for Mondeo 1.6 diesel performance. 

[markyh]

7 hours ago, Saving For a Space Ship said:

 

To stick up for @Peter Hun , he is not saying specific models, he is saying combined VW "Group" BEV sales in EU vs combined Tesla sales of S3XY . So you need to add up sales of VW E-up, E-golf, id3 , id4, Audi Etrons, Porsche Taycan, Skoda citygo and Enyaq , Seat MII , Cupra Born.

Still reckon after we get December figures Tesla combined will beat VW combined in EU alone, certainly Worldwide Tesla has trounced VW and will be no 1 or 2.  

[Peter Hun]

9 hours ago, Saving For a Space Ship said:

 

Yes Tesla basically have only one model of car.

VW sold over 200k EV cars in the first 11 months,neary  double Tesla. STELLANTIS are also outselling Tesla.

https://eu-evs.com/bestSellers/ALL/Groups/Year/2021

[Peter Hun]

10 hours ago, Confusion of VIs said:

Even if VW successfully executes all of their latest plans it only gets you to around 3m EVs a year by 2030. That's not much good when by then they will have lost almost all of their ICE sales.

Look at their plans over the past 5 yrs and you will see a succession of fantasies, maddest of all in March 2021 they were saying they would have 50 of the Chinese EV market.  I doubt they will have 5% and at the same time their ICE sales will have collapsed.  

 Volkswagen Plans To Dominate 70 Percent Of EV Market In Europe By 2030 (insideevs.com) 

They are also staking a lot on Quantumscape successfully commercialising their solid state batteries. Lots of big claims are coming out about progress but the markets are still not convinced. I bought some shares back in November last year, which quickly shot up 5 times in value and just as quickly went back down and are now worth almost exactly what I paid for them.    

That's exactly it.

They have public ally stated that  it does not make sense to produce a $25k car while sales of the higher priced models are battery constrained. Their $25k car will be designed and produced in China, design work is already underway and it's reasonable to expect an announcement of both the car and a second much larger China factory next year.  

The iD3 was a compliance car, launched before it was really ready, to reduce penalty taxes. My wife's has been back to the dealer 3 times for software updates and it's still doesn't have the ability to update online. She has been promised one more visit will sort out the problem, described to her as "it has got itself in a bit of a muddle"  

After years of lobbying to stop the move to BEVs, Toyota (like Hyundai and Kia) has realised they betting on the wrong horses (hybrids and Hydrogen), a couple of weeks ago they announced a $35bn investment in BEVs. Maybe this means they will also stop insulting their customers intelligence with ads for "self charging hybrids".

 

    

VW already have 26% of the EU EV market and the ID.3 is the second best selling individual car, they are building over a thousand per day. The software has been updated, i thought that was a good thing if it was a Tesla?

VW is number 3/4 in China, they started up this year with the new models.

VW plans are for market share and like every other manufacturer, they are plans that need to be implemented in competition with its peers. Not by proclamation. Teslas for plans  dominantion in 2030 are falling apart, 8% market share, and shrinking, in China, number 3 in Europe. Once their competitors start selling in America, Tesla's market share will shrink there too. Procla

Hyundai dont sell self charging models, they sell electric cars that are game changing in a way that Tesla is not.

Not only are the ioniq 5 and EV6 better than anything Tesla sell it is also considerably cheaper than the American cars.

[Saving For a Space Ship]

1 hour ago, Peter Hun said:

Yes Tesla basically have only one model of car.

VW sold over 200k EV cars in the first 11 months,neary  double Tesla. STELLANTIS are also outselling Tesla.

https://eu-evs.com/bestSellers/ALL/Groups/Year/2021

 Tesla dont make smaller, cheaper cars yet.  They are cars in different markets, the model y is also coming shortly and before you say it similar to the model 3, the vw id 3 & id4 share the same platform.

After Dieselgate (see great vid I posted a few posts earlier) , I would never trust vw, but a lot of idiots appear to ignore the fact they were poisoning them & their kids for years. You ignored my point about the $billion dollar battery replacement disaster of hyundai .

The hyundai shape looks like a crossover old audi a3 imo, the shape of the model 3 is evolution in drag reduction 

   

Quote

UK order books are now open for Tesla’s long-awaited Model Y, priced from £54,990 for the Long Range electric SUV. That’s the version we’re driving for the first time on British roads, though it’s a Dutch test car with the steering wheel on the left.

First right-hand-drive deliveries of Long Range models are expected by March 2022,

 

[hotblack42]

The definitive statements on this thread are disconcerting. My investment manager cites trends, business plans, past performance, political pressures, the apparent competence, or not, of fund managers & the management team of organisations she meets & questions in person.  She never says anything like 'ICE sales will collapse' or 'VW will definitely, or definitely not, achieve x% market share by 202x'.

Please advise what additional resources posters have access to on here that enables these confident predictions.  Knowing things like this must be a great way to make a fortune relatively quickly rather than boring old slow, steady, dependable gains.

[dpg50000]

Not sure if I've missed it in the 94 pages of this thread, but....

Did the BOE ever conclude their investigation and was any meaningful action ever implemented?

(Can't believe I typed that last sentence with a straight face 😆)

[Peter Hun]

5 hours ago, markyh said:

Lol, cant afford £50k 300kwh rapids, so they will use £2m 700 bar hydrogen filling stations with half a dozen pumps. Hydrogen is worldwide fantasy for passenger cars, no one can afford or is will to pay for the filling stations and the cars cost more that Tesla's for Mondeo 1.6 diesel performance. 

******** arguments were used against BEV and now look where we are with volume production. Green Hydrogen will start to be produced using the wind to H2 plants being introduced and from countries like Namibia who can export it. Outside certain countries and for some applications H2 will the only option. 

[Peter Hun]

6 hours ago, markyh said:

 

Tesla C class hatch is coming in 2025 at about £25k for 300 mile range. They wont do this until they have plenty of 4680 cells as that format will be so much more cost, space, and energy efficient the battery costs will be under $50 kwh. So a 75kwh pack will cost under $4k in /battery cells. 

Tesla's plan has always been top down, as the smaller the car, the less profits, but it is in the plan. 

Blah blah $30k Model 3 in 2018.

Meanwhile Dacia Spring is €18k and best selling car in France, for example. ID.3 is not much more than £25k today, not some hazy guess of price and specs years into the future.

[Peter Hun]

6 hours ago, markyh said:

 

i don't believe that for 1 second, maybe only in certain isolated months where Tesla dont have a ship arriving. /look at it quarterly, on months /tesla boats arrive, on 2021 annually next month when we get the figures and Tesla's /=EU sales will be no.1 and trash VW . 

And 2022 berlin is now producing, so the eu competition are really screwed as Tesla are no long supply constrained in Europe. 

The old, "don't like them facts so here are something I made up to prove my point".

We'll see how Tesla does with the Berlin plant in operation. Will it be cheaper, $75k starting point in the UK, for a car that is feeling dated and old tech, it has to be.

The figures I've used are year to date. Tesla may snatch second place with a big quarter end shipment but VW is miles ahead.

How much they can supply from China is debatable as its been starved of supply too. Model 3 sales down 63%, cannibalised by the Model Y like the S and X before it?

[Peter Hun]

2 hours ago, Saving For a Space Ship said:

You ignored my point about the $billion dollar battery replacement disaster of hyundai .

The hyundai shape looks like a crossover old audi a3 imo, the shape of the model 3 is evolution in drag reduction 

The disaster with LG Chem, Hyundai dropped them for CATL (owned by BYD) so now share a supplier with Tesla and VW.

Hyundai share of the recall was $340m not "billions". Irrelevant to me.

Looks are subjective most reviewers absolutely adore the I5/EV6. Range is over 300miles so it doesn't need to look like POS  Tesla.

[Peter Hun]

6 hours ago, markyh said:

To stick up for @Peter Hun , he is not saying specific models, he is saying combined VW "Group" BEV sales in EU vs combined Tesla sales of S3XY . So you need to add up sales of VW E-up, E-golf, id3 , id4, Audi Etrons, Porsche Taycan, Skoda citygo and Enyaq , Seat MII , Cupra Born.

Still reckon after we get December figures Tesla combined will beat VW combined in EU alone, certainly Worldwide Tesla has trounced VW and will be no 1 or 2.  

I expect Tesla to claim 1million sold in 2021 and still be 1st world wide. Next year BYD will be number 1. They will probably announce a factory in Europe using batteries from their CATL plant in Poland that will initially supply Tesla.

[markyh]

3 hours ago, Saving For a Space Ship said:

 Tesla dont make smaller, cheaper cars yet.  They are cars in different markets, the model y is also coming shortly and before you say it similar to the model 3, the vw id 3 & id4 share the same platform.

After Dieselgate (see great vid I posted a few posts earlier) , I would never trust vw, but a lot of idiots appear to ignore the fact they were poisoning them & their kids for years. You ignored my point about the $billion dollar battery replacement disaster of hyundai .

The hyundai shape looks like a crossover old audi a3 imo, the shape of the model 3 is evolution in drag reduction 

   

 

I have one on order from week 1 of the order book opening, due early 2022. Maybe Easter. 

[Confusion of VIs]

5 hours ago, Peter Hun said:

VW already have 26% of the EU EV market and the ID.3 is the second best selling individual car, they are building over a thousand per day. The software has been updated, i thought that was a good thing if it was a Tesla?

The software has ben updated several times, 3 visits to a dealer to do it. It should now have online updates but they keep failing, now promised that the next dealer visit will sort it out. In contrast my tesla just works.

1 hour ago, Peter Hun said:

I expect Tesla to claim 1million sold in 2021 and still be 1st world wide. Next year BYD will be number 1. They will probably announce a factory in Europe using batteries from their CATL plant in Poland that will initially supply Tesla.

Tesla won't hit 1m maybe 920k, still above most analyst estimates but after a year of cost reduction and price increases the impressive figure will be the earnings.  BYD might get close to Tesla in sales next year but still only around 50% by revenue.  

1 hour ago, Peter Hun said:

Hence the interest in Hydrogen/ammonia. 

All the green Hydrogen that can be produced will be used to decarbonise industrial processes not transport.

Also the energy efficiency cycle of using hydrogen in fuel cells to produce electricity is around half that of using batteries to store grid electricity.   

[Peter Hun]

1 hour ago, Confusion of VIs said:

All the green Hydrogen that can be produced will be used to decarbonise industrial processes not transport.

That depends on how much they produce. Battery power wont cut it in most of the world or in marine and aviation.

1 hour ago, Confusion of VIs said:

Also the energy efficiency cycle of using hydrogen in fuel cells to produce electricity is around half that of using batteries to store grid electricity.   

True but there maybe no alternative. Also production and storage of H2 could allow renewables in inaccessible/remote locations where grid connectivity is un viable.

Dump ten thousand wind generators in the Atlantic and collect the H2 from them on regular basis.

[markyh]

1 hour ago, Peter Hun said:

That depends on how much they produce. Battery power wont cut it in most of the world or in marine and aviation.

True but there maybe no alternative. Also production and storage of H2 could allow renewables in inaccessible/remote locations where grid connectivity is un viable.

Dump ten thousand wind generators in the Atlantic and collect the H2 from them on regular basis.

Yesh, happy to carry this disagreement over for years and review annually too, it's fun being right all the time. Willing to bet by the time BEV are 5% of the Global fleet the HFCEV are only about in pittiful numbers worldwide. 

If the first world cant afford  the filling and transportation systems for passenger cars, forget the rest of the world, they will be sticking with ICE or building out at least 2nd world electric systems like South Africa. 

Only 2 possible places HFCEV might make 1% of the new fleet by 2030, Japan and California. The Oil companies will never pay for it unless they are allowed to sell blue gas Hydrogen for ever, the public wont stomach huge taxes to pay for it, and Toyota , Honda and pals just will never afford to put in the filling stations to sell the cars like Tesla has with the Supercharger Network. 

It's also another terrible waste of energy ground to fuel tank, ICE 25% Efficient, HFCEV 38% , BEV, 80%.   

Good luck with your pipe dream. Hydrogen will be for industry, planes and lorries / buses only. 

[Saving For a Space Ship]

On 31/12/2021 at 10:00, Peter Hun said:

The disaster with LG Chem, Hyundai dropped them for CATL (owned by BYD) so now share a supplier with Tesla and VW.

Hyundai share of the recall was $340m not "billions". Irrelevant to me.

Looks are subjective most reviewers absolutely adore the I5/EV6. Range is over 300miles so it doesn't need to look like POS  Tesla.

I did not say $billions, I said $billion . original articles at the time said it cost $1 billion . half to be paid by hyundai, half by the batt supplier 

THis article from april 2021 says $900 million

Looks are subjective to a degree, but for good design the drag coefficient should be constantly improving, not looking like an old car .

ie Mercedes-Benz EQS Achieves 4 Mi/kWh With 0.20 Drag Coefficient

https://insideevs.com/news/497543/mercedes-benz-eqs-4-mi-kwh/   

Quote

Apr 7, 2021 - 04:50 pm Kona Electric battery recall keeps troubling Hyundai

https://www.electrive.com/2021/04/07/kona-ev-owners-find-hyundai-mishandling-recall/

The Kona Electric uses the same batteries as GM’s Chevrolet Bolt, for which there was also a recall. GM had begun swapping the batteries that October, while Hyundai stuck with the software update as a final solution.

That was until the company had to give in this February when Korean media reported Hyundai was replacing the entire batteries of all 77,000 Kona Electric vehicles worldwide.

These account for nearly 70% of the 111,000 units sold over the past three years in Hyundai’s major markets of Europe, the US and South Korea. A few days later, on 25 February, the manufacturer extended the recall to include not only the Kona Electric but also the Ioniq Electric and some Elec City e-bus units at the cost of $900 million following fires in 15 Kona EVs.

Still, the decision to finally replace the batteries sounded like good news, all things considered at the time. However, the new Reuters report points to Hyundai still not having sorted the problem and even less the communication.

Take the example of Kim, an EV owner in Seoul. He told the news agency: “When I asked Hyundai’s repair centre when exactly my Kona EV will be getting a battery replacement, they just told me that they would put me ahead in the line, but I haven’t received the exact date yet.” Kim then added,

“There were only a few EV options when I bought my Kona EV back in 2018, but now that there are way more EV models available, I don’t think I would go for Hyundai again.”And Kim is not alone.

Already in November 2020, 173 Kona EV owners filed a class-action lawsuit, seeking 8 million won ($7,000) compensation each for what they consider a reduced value of their EVs.

back on topic , the price increase in cars / lease or buy is getting crazy in he US  ..

Buyer Rejects $50K Dealer Markup On Mercedes EQS, Gets Lucid Air Jon Rettinger initially wanted a Mercedes-Benz EQS 580 4MATIC, but the insane markup drove him to buy a Lucid Air instead.

https://insideevs.com/news/557827/mercedes-eqs-50000usd-dealer-markup/

 

interesting ..Are VW, BMW & Mercedes colluding to STOP Tesla? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9eajbyS4bI8

Edited January 1, 2022 by Saving For a Space Ship

[hotblack42]

EV sales have doubled from 5 to 10% this year, albeit in a reduced overall market.

The charging network isn't keeping up.  In addition, although we could easily afford an EV, £37000 for a decent sized, good looking one is way too much, we expect something along the lines of a top of the range RAV4 for that, not something similar to a well specified Focus.

There's a modest premium for the energy cost saving.  The wittering about the value of old batteries is just BS from the industry looking to justify residual values.

We do about 8k miles pa across 2 cars.  For now we'll sell them & get a good value used hybrid or Euro 6 diesel.

Very happy to go EV when a desirable, nearly new one is about £20-25k in today's money & there is more charging capacity than demand on peak driving days.

Until then we'll sit on our hands, despite having a drive & making our Bungalow 'charger ready' as part of its rewire last year.  Have invested in the technology via pension fund though😉

Edited January 1, 2022 by hotblack42
Clarify

[Peter Hun]

1 hour ago, Saving For a Space Ship said:

I did not say $billions, I said $billion . original articles at the time said it cost $1 billion . half to be paid by hyundai, half by the batt supplier 

THis article from april 2021 says $900 million

Looks are subjective to a degree, but for good design the drag coefficient should be constantly improving, not looking like an old car .

ie Mercedes-Benz EQS Achieves 4 Mi/kWh With 0.20 Drag Coefficient

https://insideevs.com/news/497543/mercedes-benz-eqs-4-mi-kwh/   

 

The final bill was  $680m split between the two.

[Peter Hun]

21 hours ago, markyh said:

Yesh, happy to carry this disagreement over for years and review annually too, it's fun being right all the time. Willing to bet by the time BEV are 5% of the Global fleet the HFCEV are only about in pittiful numbers worldwide. 

If the first world cant afford  the filling and transportation systems for passenger cars, forget the rest of the world, they will be sticking with ICE or building out at least 2nd world electric systems like South Africa. 

Only 2 possible places HFCEV might make 1% of the new fleet by 2030, Japan and California. The Oil companies will never pay for it unless they are allowed to sell blue gas Hydrogen for ever, the public wont stomach huge taxes to pay for it, and Toyota , Honda and pals just will never afford to put in the filling stations to sell the cars like Tesla has with the Supercharger Network. 

It's also another terrible waste of energy ground to fuel tank, ICE 25% Efficient, HFCEV 38% , BEV, 80%.   

Good luck with your pipe dream. Hydrogen will be for industry, planes and lorries / buses only. 

Cheap Green Hydrogen will probably used in the form of Amonia or other artifical fuel in high efficiency combustion motors. Has the advantage of duel fuel usage.

[markyh]

29 minutes ago, Peter Hun said:

Cheap Green Hydrogen will probably used in the form of Amonia or other artifical fuel in high efficiency combustion motors. Has the advantage of duel fuel usage.

How do they get around legislation that says zero emissions at the tailpipe? Goog luck with that. only 8 years left of pure ICE sales, tick tock, tock tock. 

[Peter Hun]

4 hours ago, markyh said:

How do they get around legislation that says zero emissions at the tailpipe? Goog luck with that. only 8 years left of pure ICE sales, tick tock, tock tock. 

Depends on the type of emissions. There is no countdown in many countries.

[Saving For a Space Ship]

GM heralded this plant as a model for its electric car future. Then its batteries started exploding.

The company had to recall 141,000 Chevrolet Bolt electric vehicles, a microcosm of the challenge GM faces as it aims to shift its production to all-electric  

https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2021/12/30/chevy-bolt-gm/