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AvoidDebt

Land Reg: +0.4 Jul 2016

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People in Luton celebrating the 15% increase because Luton is on the Up don't you know , this will bring jobs and increases wages ....

WTF is wrong with people don't they see that the areas with big rises are the previously less desirable areas and prices are up because no once can afford to buy elsewhere btu here's the kicker

idiots enjoy your 15% rises because sooner rather than later your area is affordable and the London bubble moves onto the next area

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London sales down 46%.

the number of completed house sales in London fell by 46% to 5,111 compared with 9,466 in May 2015

https://www.gov.uk/government/news/uk-house-price-index-hpi-for-july-2016

That will explain why the EAs are suddenly being so sympathetic round here. Them shopfront rents must be starting to bite.

I'm reminded of a quote from an Ea in the 90s housing crash.

It was something like 'If hardly anything is selling, there is no market'

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Calm down dear.

I've had enough Bruce.

The actions of the BoE post BrExit ( post 2007 for that matter) are criminal IMHO.

There is no future in the UK till the bankers are regulated

The bankers wont be regulated until something REALLY bad happens.

Edited by TheCountOfNowhere

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I've had enough Bruce.

The actions of the BoE post BrExit ( post 2007 for that matter) are criminal IMHO.

There is no future in the UK till the bankers are regulated

The bankers wont be regulated until something REALLY bad happens.

Bail outs were the problem not lack of regulation.

Banks lend recklessly... banks go bust = Free market in action.

Banks lend recklessly... banks are bailed out = State intervention.

It is state intervention, rather than the lack of it, that has caused the present problems.

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I don't expect any imminent correction in the Market, for one thing anything north of about Derby is still technically in a housing recession having not attained peak prices achieved between 2004-2007. A twelve year trough is unprecedented after house prices tripled every decade in nominal terms from 1967-2007.

However, the last thing you should do now is buy some God forsaken terraced house in a solid Labour ward of Cambridge for 400k, it doesn't make sense and the populace there have clearly completely lost it and need psychiatric help.

But I am a believer in cycles and the Harrisonian 18 year cycle has remained unbroken since 1956 and the big one is not really pencilled in until 2025. Not that I think anybody buying now will do particularly well, after 2025 today's prices may well be revisited in real terms if not nominal.

Also depends where you buy, in Leeds a 40k terraced house might prove a good long term bet, in Cambridge you will probably get slaughtered eventually.

Edited by crashmonitor

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I don't expect any imminent correction in the Market, for one thing anything north of about Derby is still technically in a housing recession having not attained peak prices achieved between 2004-2007. A twelve year trough is unprecedented after house prices tripled every decade in nominal terms from 1967-2007.

However, the last thing you should do now is buy some God forsaken terraced house in a solid Labour ward of Cambridge for 400k, it doesn't make sense and the populace there have clearly completely lost it and need psychiatric help.

But I am a believer in cycles and the Harrisonian 18 year cycle has remained unbroken since 1956 and the big one is not really pencilled in until 2025. Not that I think anybody buying now will do particularly well, after 2025 today's prices may well be revisited in real terms if not nominal.

Also depends where you buy, in Leeds a 40k terraced house might prove a good long term bet, in Cambridge you will probably get slaughtered eventually.

2007 was the peak of Labour's debt fuelled housing bubble which has since been kept inflated by low interest rates and Conservative props, Funding for Lending and Help to Buy.

Edited by Bruce Banner

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based on that, then by 2025, we could see SE and London prices up by another 50% if that's when the next crash may occur. Even if it were to drop by 25%, you wouldn't have lost and still benefited from extreme low rates.

Disclaimer: Just as annoyed as TCON and non-owner.

Well 50% up over the next nine years and then 33% down would get us back to 2016 square one. And 33% down was the experience from 2007-2012 in real terms. So the days of winning on a the long horizon may well have passed.

Edited by crashmonitor

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Spinning like a top as usual :rolleyes:.

Well I hope i am wrong since two thirds of our equity remains in cash and only a third is in property. Perhaps I need some psychiatric help and do it the Cambridge way and just buy some stately home up here and let the debt do its thing and print me HPI. All those f&&king academics presumably know what they are doing.

Edited by crashmonitor

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Well I hope i am wrong since two thirds of our equity remains in cash and only a third is in property. Perhaps I need some psychiatric help and do it the Cambridge way and just buy some stately home up here and let the debt do its thing and print me HPI. Also those f&&king academics presumably know what they are doing.

Same as it ever was.

http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/index.php?/topic/198646-land-reg-april-figure-up-15-mom/?p=1102526093

Edited by Bruce Banner

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Isn't the one to watch the actual sales figures? -33% (England) -46% (London). Has any industry remained in tact with such a decline in sales figures?

I've spoken to four EAs at length recently from three different agencies. Surprisingly sympathetic. For once I wasnt made to feel like a time wasting scumbag because I'm not prepared to go OIEO. Genuine buyers are very thin on the ground. They seem to be blaming stubborn vendors. The BTL pullback is also very real, yield has always been terrible in London and looks like there will now be a carry cost waiting for those capital gainzz. Give it another few months and it will probably be the EAs that pull the trigger.

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Isn't the one to watch the actual sales figures? -33% (England) -46% (London). Has any industry remained in tact with such a decline in sales figures?

I've spoken to four EAs at length recently from three different agencies. Surprisingly sympathetic. For once I wasnt made to feel like a time wasting scumbag because I'm not prepared to go OIEO. Genuine buyers are very thin on the ground. They seem to be blaming stubborn vendors. The BTL pullback is also very real, yield has always been terrible in London and looks like there will now be a carry cost waiting for those capital gainzz. Give it another few months and it will probably be the EAs that pull the trigger.

Exactly -46% in London is great news. It's grinding to a halt.

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