AvoidDebt Posted September 13, 2016 Share Posted September 13, 2016 For July 2016: the average price of a property in the UK was £216,750 the annual price change for a property in the UK was 8.3% the monthly price change for a property in the UK was 0.4% https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/uk-house-price-index-summary-july-2016/uk-house-price-index-summary-july-2016 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rantnrave Posted September 13, 2016 Share Posted September 13, 2016 English sales in May 2016 down by a third from May 2015 - the post-April BTL drop off captured Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvoidDebt Posted September 13, 2016 Author Share Posted September 13, 2016 London is also up. Avg Price £484,716 Monthly change 1.0% Annual change 12.3% Sales are collapsing England May 2016 49,795 May 2015 74,897 -33.5% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eddie_George Posted September 13, 2016 Share Posted September 13, 2016 Speculation has been the only thing driving the market since the financial crash Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zugzwang Posted September 13, 2016 Share Posted September 13, 2016 Speculation has been the only thing driving the market since the financial crash Plus Haldane and Carney's outrageous cheer-leading. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvoidDebt Posted September 13, 2016 Author Share Posted September 13, 2016 London sales down 46%. the number of completed house sales in London fell by 46% to 5,111 compared with 9,466 in May 2015 https://www.gov.uk/government/news/uk-house-price-index-hpi-for-july-2016 That will explain why the EAs are suddenly being so sympathetic round here. Them shopfront rents must be starting to bite. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rantnrave Posted September 13, 2016 Share Posted September 13, 2016 I can't see the breakdown of individual towns and cities? The old format was much more accessible IMO Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheCountOfNowhere Posted September 13, 2016 Share Posted September 13, 2016 F**KING MADNESS Did you just hear my scream !!!!! Why the f**k as the BoE allowed to drop rates and print money to forced down mortgage rates. These ****s should be in prison. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nabby81 Posted September 13, 2016 Share Posted September 13, 2016 People in Luton celebrating the 15% increase because Luton is on the Up don't you know , this will bring jobs and increases wages .... WTF is wrong with people don't they see that the areas with big rises are the previously less desirable areas and prices are up because no once can afford to buy elsewhere btu here's the kicker idiots enjoy your 15% rises because sooner rather than later your area is affordable and the London bubble moves onto the next area Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Saving For a Space Ship Posted September 13, 2016 Share Posted September 13, 2016 London sales down 46%. the number of completed house sales in London fell by 46% to 5,111 compared with 9,466 in May 2015 https://www.gov.uk/government/news/uk-house-price-index-hpi-for-july-2016 That will explain why the EAs are suddenly being so sympathetic round here. Them shopfront rents must be starting to bite. I'm reminded of a quote from an Ea in the 90s housing crash. It was something like 'If hardly anything is selling, there is no market' Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvoidDebt Posted September 13, 2016 Author Share Posted September 13, 2016 ..the areas with big rises are the previously less desirable area... SHPI? Sh*t House Price Inflation. Newham and Barking and Dagenham both up 20%+ in 2015. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bruce Banner Posted September 13, 2016 Share Posted September 13, 2016 F**KING MADNESS Did you just hear my scream !!!!! Why the f**k as the BoE allowed to drop rates and print money to forced down mortgage rates. These ****s should be in prison. Calm down dear. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheCountOfNowhere Posted September 13, 2016 Share Posted September 13, 2016 (edited) Calm down dear. I've had enough Bruce. The actions of the BoE post BrExit ( post 2007 for that matter) are criminal IMHO. There is no future in the UK till the bankers are regulated The bankers wont be regulated until something REALLY bad happens. Edited September 13, 2016 by TheCountOfNowhere Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bruce Banner Posted September 13, 2016 Share Posted September 13, 2016 I've had enough Bruce. The actions of the BoE post BrExit ( post 2007 for that matter) are criminal IMHO. There is no future in the UK till the bankers are regulated The bankers wont be regulated until something REALLY bad happens. Bail outs were the problem not lack of regulation. Banks lend recklessly... banks go bust = Free market in action. Banks lend recklessly... banks are bailed out = State intervention. It is state intervention, rather than the lack of it, that has caused the present problems. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crashmonitor Posted September 13, 2016 Share Posted September 13, 2016 (edited) I don't expect any imminent correction in the Market, for one thing anything north of about Derby is still technically in a housing recession having not attained peak prices achieved between 2004-2007. A twelve year trough is unprecedented after house prices tripled every decade in nominal terms from 1967-2007. However, the last thing you should do now is buy some God forsaken terraced house in a solid Labour ward of Cambridge for 400k, it doesn't make sense and the populace there have clearly completely lost it and need psychiatric help. But I am a believer in cycles and the Harrisonian 18 year cycle has remained unbroken since 1956 and the big one is not really pencilled in until 2025. Not that I think anybody buying now will do particularly well, after 2025 today's prices may well be revisited in real terms if not nominal. Also depends where you buy, in Leeds a 40k terraced house might prove a good long term bet, in Cambridge you will probably get slaughtered eventually. Edited September 13, 2016 by crashmonitor Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bruce Banner Posted September 13, 2016 Share Posted September 13, 2016 (edited) I don't expect any imminent correction in the Market, for one thing anything north of about Derby is still technically in a housing recession having not attained peak prices achieved between 2004-2007. A twelve year trough is unprecedented after house prices tripled every decade in nominal terms from 1967-2007. However, the last thing you should do now is buy some God forsaken terraced house in a solid Labour ward of Cambridge for 400k, it doesn't make sense and the populace there have clearly completely lost it and need psychiatric help. But I am a believer in cycles and the Harrisonian 18 year cycle has remained unbroken since 1956 and the big one is not really pencilled in until 2025. Not that I think anybody buying now will do particularly well, after 2025 today's prices may well be revisited in real terms if not nominal. Also depends where you buy, in Leeds a 40k terraced house might prove a good long term bet, in Cambridge you will probably get slaughtered eventually. 2007 was the peak of Labour's debt fuelled housing bubble which has since been kept inflated by low interest rates and Conservative props, Funding for Lending and Help to Buy. Edited September 13, 2016 by Bruce Banner Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crashmonitor Posted September 13, 2016 Share Posted September 13, 2016 (edited) based on that, then by 2025, we could see SE and London prices up by another 50% if that's when the next crash may occur. Even if it were to drop by 25%, you wouldn't have lost and still benefited from extreme low rates. Disclaimer: Just as annoyed as TCON and non-owner. Well 50% up over the next nine years and then 33% down would get us back to 2016 square one. And 33% down was the experience from 2007-2012 in real terms. So the days of winning on a the long horizon may well have passed. Edited September 13, 2016 by crashmonitor Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bruce Banner Posted September 13, 2016 Share Posted September 13, 2016 Spinning like a top as usual . Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crashmonitor Posted September 13, 2016 Share Posted September 13, 2016 (edited) Spinning like a top as usual . Well I hope i am wrong since two thirds of our equity remains in cash and only a third is in property. Perhaps I need some psychiatric help and do it the Cambridge way and just buy some stately home up here and let the debt do its thing and print me HPI. All those f&&king academics presumably know what they are doing. Edited September 13, 2016 by crashmonitor Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bruce Banner Posted September 13, 2016 Share Posted September 13, 2016 (edited) Well I hope i am wrong since two thirds of our equity remains in cash and only a third is in property. Perhaps I need some psychiatric help and do it the Cambridge way and just buy some stately home up here and let the debt do its thing and print me HPI. Also those f&&king academics presumably know what they are doing. Same as it ever was. http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/index.php?/topic/198646-land-reg-april-figure-up-15-mom/?p=1102526093 Edited September 13, 2016 by Bruce Banner Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvoidDebt Posted September 13, 2016 Author Share Posted September 13, 2016 Isn't the one to watch the actual sales figures? -33% (England) -46% (London). Has any industry remained in tact with such a decline in sales figures? I've spoken to four EAs at length recently from three different agencies. Surprisingly sympathetic. For once I wasnt made to feel like a time wasting scumbag because I'm not prepared to go OIEO. Genuine buyers are very thin on the ground. They seem to be blaming stubborn vendors. The BTL pullback is also very real, yield has always been terrible in London and looks like there will now be a carry cost waiting for those capital gainzz. Give it another few months and it will probably be the EAs that pull the trigger. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crashmonitor Posted September 13, 2016 Share Posted September 13, 2016 Same as it ever was. http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/index.php?/topic/198646-land-reg-april-figure-up-15-mom/?p=1102526093 So just because I think property in the north might not crash that means I should buy property, I might not want to. We would do very well out of a crash. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maynardgravy Posted September 13, 2016 Share Posted September 13, 2016 Isn't the one to watch the actual sales figures? -33% (England) -46% (London). Has any industry remained in tact with such a decline in sales figures? I've spoken to four EAs at length recently from three different agencies. Surprisingly sympathetic. For once I wasnt made to feel like a time wasting scumbag because I'm not prepared to go OIEO. Genuine buyers are very thin on the ground. They seem to be blaming stubborn vendors. The BTL pullback is also very real, yield has always been terrible in London and looks like there will now be a carry cost waiting for those capital gainzz. Give it another few months and it will probably be the EAs that pull the trigger. Exactly -46% in London is great news. It's grinding to a halt. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Patient London FTB Posted September 13, 2016 Share Posted September 13, 2016 National newbuild prices down 2.1% month on month Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rantnrave Posted September 13, 2016 Share Posted September 13, 2016 National newbuild prices down 2.1% month on monthWith the caveat that these figures are highly erratic. Hope it's right though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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