AThirdWay Posted June 25, 2016 Share Posted June 25, 2016 I think Sturgeon is a good politician. Is keeping the vote option open but the powder dry. The key issue for me is Scotlands currency post break up. Before there was some sort of nebulous claim that they would keep the pound. I really don't see that as an option if they leave the UK this time - it has to be the euro for a whole host of reasons. I think the Scots are strongly negative on the Euro. I don't see that the negative regarding brexit will gain enough popularity for a leave if the euro has to be adopted. Far better IMO for Sturgeon to wait for a few years and see how Brexit develops and see what that does to the appetite for a leave vote. This will mean pacifying a lot more of the SNP die hards who are probably keen to hold another vote, but not keen on being patient. I think 5 years or so is required, minimum. Absolutely. I can't see there being a referendum until such time as an actual date for Brexit has been announced. By that time, all the 'emergency measures' that Brussels has put on the table for Scotland, and possibly even a few that haven't (!) will have been leaked to the press.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Habeas Domus Posted June 25, 2016 Share Posted June 25, 2016 You lot are so out of touch with Scottish opinion. One of the key points the NO campaign ran with is if you vote YES you will no longer be in the EU. During the Scottish referendum the EU in/out referendum wasn't even a thing. There is no precedent for an EU member state dividing into two sovereign countries after joining the EU.[221] Supporters of independence stated that an independent Scotland would become an EU member by treaty amendment under Article 48 of the EU treaties.[222] Opponents say that this would not be possible and that an independent Scotland would need to apply for EU membership under Article 49, which would require ratification by each member state.[222]Christina McKelvie, Convener of the European and External Relations Committee of the Scottish Parliament, in March 2014 asked Viviane Reding, Vice-President of the European Commission, whether Article 48 would apply.[223] Reding replied that EU treaties would no longer apply to a territory when it secedes from a member state.[224] She also indicated that Article 49 would be the route to apply to become a member of the EU.[224] José Manuel Barroso, president of the European Commission, stated earlier that an independent Scotland would have to apply for membership, while the rest of the UK would continue to be a member.[225] In 2014, he reiterated that Scotland joining the EU would be "extremely difficult, if not impossible".[226] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scottish_independence_referendum,_2014 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AThirdWay Posted June 25, 2016 Share Posted June 25, 2016 p.s. Where's all the condemnation of selfish boomers now then? From the beeb: "The survey, conducted after voting closed, found 75% of those aged between 18 and 24 voted to remain in the EU". Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niall of the Nine Hostages Posted June 25, 2016 Share Posted June 25, 2016 Anyone seen this? Sorry if its already been posted. Scottish independence at 2:36 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EUBanana Posted June 25, 2016 Share Posted June 25, 2016 Looks like the Sturgeon-ator has seen her chance. https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2016/jun/25/sturgeon-seeks-urgent-brussels-talks-to-protect-scotlands-eu-membership Also looks as if Brussels is going to play hardball. http://europa.eu/rapid/press-release_MEMO-16-2328_en.htm http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/eu-referendum-brexit-boris-johnson-michael-gove-vote-leave-a7100431.html I did ask, maybe on this thread, maybe on another, what happens if Sturgeon comes back with a good deal for Scotland..... Thoughts? Boris is a europhile, he doesn't really want to go. Hence the delays. "Never trust a Tory"... When Article 50 is invoked that's it, the red button has been pressed, so they don't want to do that. They are playing for time. There will now be frenzied negotiating behind the scenes and efforts will be made to scare the $hit out of England. The EU nomenklatura know they don't really want to leave. Them wanting them to press the button asap is them playing hardball. All part of the negotiating. Meanwhile they are working very hard to isolate Farage again. Because Farage actually really does want to leave! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gigantic Purple Slug Posted June 25, 2016 Share Posted June 25, 2016 (edited) Absolutely. I can't see there being a referendum until such time as an actual date for Brexit has been announced. By that time, all the 'emergency measures' that Brussels has put on the table for Scotland, and possibly even a few that haven't (!) will have been leaked to the press.... I don't think it will happen on a timescale consistent with Brexit. It will take much longer than that. I also think there will be a big question mark over whether Brussels will come up with a good deal for Scotland. Generally EU expansionist policy seems to favour relatively immature economies with low social spending, (a cynic might say where they can develop markets to sell manufactured goods into). I'm not convinced that Brussels will want to have monetary union with yet another economy which has a history of high social spending and mature markets without having any well defined fiscal control. Edit : Now I see the video. Very good. Edited June 25, 2016 by Gigantic Purple Slug Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Qetesuesi Posted June 25, 2016 Share Posted June 25, 2016 p.s. Where's all the condemnation of selfish boomers now then? From the beeb: "The survey, conducted after voting closed, found 75% of those aged between 18 and 24 voted to remain in the EU". As a non-boomer I'll bite. Anyone over 59 will have been eligible to vote in 1975. I don't know if breakdown by age group is available for that first referendum, but let's say the younger voters of the time voted more or less in line with the solid two-thirds majority to stay in the Common Market. Then today's equivalent younger voters really need to ask themselves what could have happened to cause that two-third majority for remaining to convert to what looks like a two-thirds majority to leave. For that they can only consult history - or else, actually go and talk to their parents etc. who have lived through these 41 years and can clearly recall what turned them against the EU to such a massive extent. What the young ones would learn from this research would truly enlighten them. Maybe the young should actually thank their older-therefore-generally-wiser seniors for saving them from themselves? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dorkins Posted June 25, 2016 Share Posted June 25, 2016 The key issue for me is Scotlands currency post break up. Before there was some sort of nebulous claim that they would keep the pound. I really don't see that as an option if they leave the UK this time - it has to be the euro for a whole host of reasons. Scotland wouldn't qualify for the euro straight away, they would have to be in ERM II for at least 2 years and sterling is not in ERM II: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Euro_convergence_criteria It's possible that the criteria could be changed but this would require a new treaty as it was established by Maastricht. Scotland should adopt a Scottish pound on leaving the UK, plenty of small developed countries with their own free floating currencies. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riedquat Posted June 25, 2016 Share Posted June 25, 2016 Nope, only if there is a "significant and material change" in Scotland's relationship with the UK, and the world. Apart from signing us up to another illegal war, I can't think of a bigger change than this. Can you? Don't recall that being on the ballot for the 2014 referendum either. Listen Scotland, you voted to stay in the UK, leaving the EU was always a possibility, do the grown up thing and accept your decision. It needs to be made absolutely clear that Scotland decided to stay just a couple of years ago, and they're staying no matter how much the nationalists cry now that they think they've found an excuse to go back on their word. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Exmond Posted June 25, 2016 Author Share Posted June 25, 2016 (edited) Don't recall that being on the ballot for the 2014 referendum either. No but it was in the SNP's manifesto just last month. A large percentage of the Scottish people agreed with that (I believe the SNP have the largest mandate of any political party in the EU currently). I imagine there will be polls out next week letting us know how many people support another referendum. I am confident it will be a majority. And that is the thing. It is up to the people if they want another referendum. It is wrong to deny the people another one if that is what they want. Democracy! Edited June 25, 2016 by Exmond Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Exmond Posted June 25, 2016 Author Share Posted June 25, 2016 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riedquat Posted June 25, 2016 Share Posted June 25, 2016 (edited) And that is the thing. It is up to the people if they want another referendum. It is wrong to deny the people another one if that is what they want. Democracy! "We're part of a group that happened to vote the opposite way to other people in the democractic process so we should get another vote to get what we want. Democracy!" As for that Tweet, that's proof that there was no chance of it happening for you? The PM at the time, David Cameron, had already offered the EU referendum if he was still in power in 2015, and because of that anyone who denied there was a risk of leaving was either ignorant or foolish, and ditto for anyone who believed them. The odds might not've been massive (IIRC it depended upon the Tories winning a majority, which wasn't looking like the most likely outcome of the next general election of the time), but "no chance" was simply not true. Edited June 25, 2016 by Riedquat Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Exmond Posted June 25, 2016 Author Share Posted June 25, 2016 Seems the Scottish parliament will need to give permission for Brexit. It keeps getting better and better! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Exmond Posted June 25, 2016 Author Share Posted June 25, 2016 (edited) "We're part of a group that happened to vote the opposite way to other people in the democractic process so we should get another vote to get what we want. Democracy!" It would need to be a majority opinion. Obviously. Edited June 25, 2016 by Exmond Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riedquat Posted June 25, 2016 Share Posted June 25, 2016 It would need to be a majority opinion. Obviously. A majority of the group who decided that the didn't like what another majority voted for it would seem. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Exmond Posted June 25, 2016 Author Share Posted June 25, 2016 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Exmond Posted June 25, 2016 Author Share Posted June 25, 2016 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Exmond Posted June 25, 2016 Author Share Posted June 25, 2016 It just occurred to me that the YES side should receive a boost in votes from EU citizens come the referendum. Although I am not sure how they voted previously, I would imagine they will be voting predominately YES this time (because why wouldn't they!). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pole Posted June 25, 2016 Share Posted June 25, 2016 Assuming that the indyref2 will also be 'once in a generation', I wonder how many 'once in a generation' Scottish referendums will I witness this decade alone? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Exmond Posted June 25, 2016 Author Share Posted June 25, 2016 (edited) Assuming that the indyref2 will also be 'once in a generation', I wonder how many 'once in a generation' Scottish referendums will I witness this decade alone? That was Alex Salmond's opinion. Don't believe me? Go look up the video in which he says it. Anyway, why should a country be beholden to one man (a great man though) or political parties opinion? Is it just me or are all these unionist posters arguments for denying us a second referendum really weak sauce? Edited June 25, 2016 by Exmond Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tinker Posted June 25, 2016 Share Posted June 25, 2016 Well said hotairmail, the feeling on here was one of astonishment at Fear campaign and disappointment that the Scottish bottled this 'one in a lifetime' opportunity. Sturgeon just posturing. Look at meeeee! Aren't I important? 10% deficit in Scotland, spending well beyond their means, falling oil revenues, reliance on England for subsidies. Small, ageing population... little fish in big EU pool. What currency to use? I doubt she would win a second referendum; particularly once the dust settles on Brexit and opportunities open up. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dorkins Posted June 25, 2016 Share Posted June 25, 2016 I doubt she would win a second referendum; particularly once the dust settles on Brexit and opportunities open up. I'm sure the SNP must be doing indyref2 polling like crazy at the moment. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Exmond Posted June 25, 2016 Author Share Posted June 25, 2016 Well said hotairmail, the feeling on here was one of astonishment at Fear campaign and disappointment that the Scottish bottled this 'one in a lifetime' opportunity. Sturgeon just posturing. Look at meeeee! Aren't I important? 10% deficit in Scotland, spending well beyond their means, falling oil revenues, reliance on England for subsidies. Small, ageing population... little fish in big EU pool. What currency to use? I doubt she would win a second referendum; particularly once the dust settles on Brexit and opportunities open up. We shall see once the first set of polls come in. If they are around 60% for a new referendum I reckon the SNP will go full steam ahead. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riedquat Posted June 25, 2016 Share Posted June 25, 2016 We shall see once the first set of polls come in. If they are around 60% for a new referendum I reckon the SNP will go full steam ahead. I'd have thought that recent events would rather put everyone off having any faith in such polls. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Qetesuesi Posted June 25, 2016 Share Posted June 25, 2016 "Lack of the Oirish" photo That's quite significant evidence of the ignorance of a large number of Remainers, in NI at least. Everyone on here knows that it'll be at least 2 years 'till the UK is finally out of the EU, so why the mad rush for foreign passports the day after the vote? Just think: if NI Remainers had been properly informed, there might have been fewer of them - and Leave might have won in NI, leaving Alban the oddball of the Union. Other than this, the photo has diddly-squat to do with the SNP. Why are you here Edmond? It's "Exmond" - a name which suggests that its owner would like to secede from more than just the UK. "Stop the world, I want to get off" Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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