Brexit What Happens Next Thread ---multiple merged threads.

[Sheeple Splinter]

5 hours ago, Agentimmo said:

Indeed. Short memories of the British and the electorate. The immigrant to the UK from the late 90s onwards was organised by UK Plc and sold to the public by their policitian friends. The EU had little to do with the numbers that were paid to come to the UK. Other countries with mature economies, France/Germany/Holland/Belgium/Italy etc , mitigated the flow from the EE countries. Only the UK went full on , due to the requirement to "grow" the UK economy. In effect, to boost the assets and wealth of a small minority. The UK public have been sold a pup, imo, with Brexit.

I'm sure it will sort itself out in 20-30 years, but until then......I've got my popcorn in hand, watching the unfolding - rather British - farce. Like one of those 1960's Ealing comedies that only the British could make.

Short memories indeed. Nu-Labour wanted to increase their voting base and rub the blues' noses in diversity. Old Labour want to continue growing their voting base.

[Riedquat]

42 minutes ago, Confusion of VIs said:

That's a good question. I suspect for the likes of ccc and RK it would have to be far larger than anything we are likely to see from either Brexit or a failing economy. Even a zero new migration rate wouldn't mean much to someone who walks down the street stressing every time he hears a foreign voice.

As you know well my issue is ultimately with population growth rather than hearing foreign voices (and it's not exactly rocket science to know that continual growth is unsustainable), so from that point of view, no likely to happen level is good enough. However the least disruptive route is to get there over many years, so as long as the trend is in the right direction and non-negligable then I might grudgingly accept it.

[Riedquat]

56 minutes ago, Sheeple Splinter said:

Labour are currently writhing on immigration. May has said tens of thousands but granted the blues have their own contortions.

The Conservatives have said that before yet didn't even make a token gesture at trying to reduce the numbers. It makes it hard to believe them. Even more so when it comes from May.

[Sheeple Splinter]

3 hours ago, pig said:

The referendum was subtexted with immigration by a UKIP indifferent to the use of xenophobia buttressed by the MSM. Whether or not the immigration is actually stopped, whether or not leaving the EU is good for Britain or not.

That simple abstraction of agenda is why we are now in this hopeless tragicomedy.

One follows the other i.e. the only way to control immigration from the EU is that you have to leave. The Remainer narrative always flops to zero immigration rather than what at least three parties were offering; controlled immigration. UKIP were the only party campaigning on zero net migration and, to use the remainer tags; the thick, northern, racist and xenophobic voters went elsewhere.

[ccc]

3 hours ago, Confusion of VIs said:

You mean just make up a fantasy outcome that flies in the face of all known facts. No thanks, I will leave you to cover that area of the debate. 

 

I think that closing a continually open door for up to half a billion people to pop over to the UK whenever they fancy and stay and work here for as long as they want will have a large impact on immigration. I know - ******ing lunacy. Complete logic fail.  

If our Government - whoever that may be - decides to try to negate this by opening other doors then they will be in very dangerous waters. The UK public have made their position very clear.

 

1 hour ago, Confusion of VIs said:

That's a good question. I suspect for the likes of ccc and RK it would have to be far larger than anything we are likely to see from either Brexit or a failing economy. Even a zero new migration rate wouldn't mean much to someone who walks down the street stressing every time he hears a foreign voice.

 

Who stresses every time they hear a foreign voice ?

 

[Sheeple Splinter]

3 hours ago, Confusion of VIs said:

Responsibility for where we are now is a separate issue.

Whatever damage he has done to the economy will be added to by Brexit.

As nobody has been able to produce a credible case for Brexit benefiting the economy in the short, medium or even medium/long term the only question  is by how much

Do you have a link to a 12+ year forecast that proved accurate?

Quote

...There is a reason for this. Most economists tend to put sophistication above broad principles. As such, they develop complex models that are designed to forecast with a great deal of accuracy what will happen if the current conditions broadly carry on or if there are changes in economic circumstances that can be handled within the model. When things happen that are outside the scope of forecasters’ models, they tend to flounder. This is especially so given that the apparent mathematical rigour of a modern economist’s training has led them to be ill-equipped (in my view) to think through issues in detail conceptually. However, for the record, let me say a little about what some forecasters have said about Brexit.

The Treasury Model suggested that, by 2030, GDP would be over 6 per cent lower if we left the EU and then negotiated a separate trade agreement with it. This is about £4,000 per household. However, the assumptions behind this modelling have been widely criticised. The way the Treasury models trade would not have predicted changes in trade patterns that have happened in recent years and the model essentially assumes that politicians do absolutely nothing to react to the new policy environment...
 

https://iea.org.uk/why-economic-forecasts-get-the-impact-of-brexit-wrong/

[knock out johnny]

2 minutes ago, ccc said:

 

Who stresses every time they hear a foreign voice ?

 

Probably the same kind of person who wants to reclaim tesco shelf-space from foreign foods and describes cafes on the way work changing from normal cafes (whatever that means) to foreign (and by implication not normal) cafes

[ccc]

12 minutes ago, Sheeple Splinter said:

One follows the other i.e. the only way to control immigration from the EU is that you have to leave. The Remainer narrative always flops to zero immigration rather than what at least three parties were offering; controlled immigration. UKIP were the only party campaigning on zero net migration and, to use the remainer tags; the thick, northern, racist and xenophobic voters went elsewhere.

Controlled immigration would be an incredible improvement compared to what we have now. No population growth and roughly around xzro net immigration would be even better. Imagine a country without a never-ending increase in people needing to live somewhere, consume this, take up space on the roads etc etc.

It would be amazing.

[ccc]

2 minutes ago, knock out johnny said:

Probably the same kind of person who wants to reclaim tesco shelf-space from foreign foods and describes cafes on the way work changing from normal cafes (whatever that means) to foreign (and by implication not normal) cafes

Reclaim Tesco shelf space ? 

Dear oh dear. I used shelf space as a FANTASTIC way to gauge real numbers of immigrants to an area. We all know why its a great way to gauge this. I am not going to explain again. What's your problem with that ? I cant remember ever stating I wanted to get the placards out to demand this space was returned to Haggis, neeps and tatties. You making stuff up again ?

As for cafes. The quote is below. The word 'normal' refers to the sort of café you would expect to see on Leith walk at any time in the past 50 years or so. One after one being replaced by Polish shops is not in any way 'normal'. Now - you may think that its great or whatever. Up to yourself. But hoards of Polish cafes on a Scottish street is not normal to most people.

How about you head off to Poznan and find me a street with an RS McColl, a butcher selling Haggis and a newsagent selling the Daily record...

You think that would be 'normal' if you could manage to find such a place ? No - of course it wouldn't.

On ‎24‎/‎01‎/‎2017 at 7:34 AM, ccc said:

With different benefit rules in place there would still be masses here. Not as many - but still too many. 

Went into Tesco yesterday to get a few things. Couldn't find a few things I usually do. Two new large Polish sections have appeared so I assume what I want to buy has been replaced by Polish sausages.

On the way there on Leith walk - a very busy road in central edinburgh- I noticed two previous 'normal' cafes have now become "Polish" cafes. One is the yellow bench cafe if anyone reading this is from the area.

This has all occurred within the two months I have been away on holiday. 

The numbers are staggering. 

 

On ‎24‎/‎01‎/‎2017 at 7:34 AM, ccc said:

 

[Sheeple Splinter]

3 hours ago, Futuroid said:

All the parties use "hot buttons" but it's traditional for their to be some connection between the hot button issue and the vote! 

FYI: The NHS will not be getting £350 million a week extra and Turkey isn't joining the EU any time soon. 

There was a connection, just not to your liking.

I suspect the NHS will continue to receive year on year increases in funding despite payments to the EU for the next x? years.

Turkey is playing the long game*, better off outside the EU with ENP, special customs arrangements, EU funded projects and the €3bn for the migrant scheme.

* Erdogan and 5 children

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/03/17/erdogan-calls-turkish-families-have-five-children-bulwark-against/

[knock out johnny]

24 minutes ago, ccc said:

Reclaim Tesco shelf space ? 

Dear oh dear. I used shelf space as a FANTASTIC way to gauge real numbers of immigrants to an area. We all know why its a great way to gauge this. I am not going to explain again. What's your problem with that ? I cant remember ever stating I wanted to get the placards out to demand this space was returned to Haggis, neeps and tatties. You making stuff up again ?

As for cafes. The quote is below. The word 'normal' refers to the sort of café you would expect to see on Leith walk at any time in the past 50 years or so. One after one being replaced by Polish shops is not in any way 'normal'. Now - you may think that its great or whatever. Up to yourself. But hoards of Polish cafes on a Scottish street is not normal to most people.

How about you head off to Poznan and find me a street with an RS McColl, a butcher selling Haggis and a newsagent selling the Daily record...

You think that would be 'normal' if you could manage to find such a place ? No - of course it wouldn't.

 

And breathe

I have absolutely no problem seeing another Polski Sklep open up where I live

foreign accents do indeed appear to be an issue for you - and your post demonstrates this

 

Edited June 20, 2017 by knock out johnny

[Sheeple Splinter]

1 hour ago, Riedquat said:

The Conservatives have said that before yet didn't even make a token gesture at trying to reduce the numbers. It makes it hard to believe them. Even more so when it comes from May.

Agreed, although there are now falls in RoW  + EU immigration figures.

[pig]

1 hour ago, Sheeple Splinter said:

One follows the other i.e. the only way to control immigration from the EU is that you have to leave. The Remainer narrative always flops to zero immigration rather than what at least three parties were offering; controlled immigration. UKIP were the only party campaigning on zero net migration and, to use the remainer tags; the thick, northern, racist and xenophobic voters went elsewhere.

Nope. The purpose of the xenophobia was to mobilise the vote against the EU plain and simple. It was a deliberate tactic, not a 'remainer tag', effective on the demographic it was aimed at and supported by the MSM. And we've been through enough times what the UK could have done about its immigration but didn't and most likely won't. 

A bunch of city boys and 1%ers took over UKIP. UKIP took over the Tory's. The Tory's...failed to take over the country. Somewhere along the way the question of 'what is in the best interests of the UK' was lost in all the 'hot button' pushing and weirdly it was the scruffy commie who asked it in the end.

Edited June 20, 2017 by pig

[cashinmattress]

4 hours ago, Sheeple Splinter said:

Ergo, can you accept that voters want controlled immigration?

UKIP = the LOL party

Voters want all kinds of stuff.. like free beer.

[Sheeple Splinter]

35 minutes ago, pig said:

Nope. The purpose of the xenophobia was to mobilise the vote against the EU plain and simple. It was a deliberate tactic, not a 'remainer tag', effective on the demographic it was aimed at and supported by the MSM. And we've been through enough times what the UK could have done about its immigration but didn't and most likely won't. 

A bunch of city boys and 1%ers took over UKIP. UKIP took over the Tory's. The Tory's...failed to take over the country. Somewhere along the way the question of 'what is in the best interests of the UK' was lost in all the 'hot button' pushing and weirdly it was the scruffy commie who asked it in the end.

Nope. The EU's policy of FoM, was one of the reasons that mobilised the vote to Leave. Easy to use these tags than dealing with the real pressures on infrastructure and services.

As posted previously, EU's incompetence in dealing with RoW migrants being ferried and fast-tracked up to Calais or held in camps did and does nothing to support the EU's supposed prestige.

I agree with your last paragraph.

Edited June 20, 2017 by Sheeple Splinter
last sentence added

[Sheeple Splinter]

27 minutes ago, cashinmattress said:

UKIP = the LOL party

Voters want all kinds of stuff.. like free beer.

UKIP RIP, will SNP follow the same course?

Free stuff...come on Labour (Old)

[Confusion of VIs]

1 hour ago, ccc said:

I think that closing a continually open door for up to half a billion people to pop over to the UK whenever they fancy and stay and work here for as long as they want will have a large impact on immigration. I know - ******ing lunacy. Complete logic fail.  

If our Government - whoever that may be - decides to try to negate this by opening other doors then they will be in very dangerous waters. The UK public have made their position very clear.

The bit you are still missing is that no one, apart from the now functionally defunct UKIP, is proposing to close the door. The Tories and Labour have both indicated that controlled immigration doesn't necessarily mean less immigration. Your linking leaving the EU with reduced immigration is the logic fail. They are separate issues.    

[Riedquat]

4 minutes ago, Confusion of VIs said:

The bit you are still missing is that no one, apart from the now functionally defunct UKIP, is proposing to close the door. The Tories and Labour have both indicated that controlled immigration doesn't necessarily mean less immigration. Your linking leaving the EU with reduced immigration is the logic fail. They are separate issues.    

Both leaving the EU and sorting out our own government are necessarry steps in that process, therefore they are not separate issues.

[Confusion of VIs]

2 hours ago, Sheeple Splinter said:

Do you have a link to a 12+ year forecast that proved accurate?

https://iea.org.uk/why-economic-forecasts-get-the-impact-of-brexit-wrong/

Forecasts are about probabilities you can find plenty of medium/long term forecasts that prove accurate when assessed against their stated probability bounds and identified risks/limitations.

What you are really saying is that it is possible they are all (I ignored Minford's forecast because a. he is nuts and b. his idea of success would be disastrous for a large proportion of the population) wrong which is true but unlikely, except in the case that some currently unforeseen factor seriously impacts our or the global economy.    

[Confusion of VIs]

14 minutes ago, Riedquat said:

Both leaving the EU and sorting out our own government are necessarry steps in that process, therefore they are not separate issues.

Maybe to get the complete halt to net immigration you want but not relevant to managing immigration in the way most people who voted leave envisage. 

[Byron]

2 hours ago, knock out johnny said:

And breathe

I have absolutely no problem seeing another Polski Sklep open up where I live

foreign accents do indeed appear to be an issue for you - and your post demonstrates this

 

Is there something wrong with you?

Most people understand why foreign shops are not welcome, why don't you?

[pig]

16 minutes ago, Sheeple Splinter said:

Nope. The EU's policy of FoM, was one of the reasons that mobilised the vote to Leave. Easy to use these tags than dealing with the real pressures on infrastructure and services.

As posted previously, EU's incompetence in dealing with RoW migrants being ferried and fast-tracked up to Calais or held in camps did and does nothing to support the EU's supposed prestige.

I agree with your last paragraph.

Sure, 'one of the reasons' kind of, but it fundamentally came about due to the mobilisation of xenophobia, the blaming all our ills on FoM as a diversion from the credit crunch fallout AND as (you?) stated above New Labour keen to promote growth. This is why for the most part Leave never had a viable plan (still doesn't as far as I can see) and why we're now on a miserable damage limitation exercise. 

The change in UKIP is instructive; this from an ex-leader no doubt with an axe to grind, but the change from an idea well worth debating to a instrumentalist nightmare rings horribly true:

Quote

 

"[UKIP] is a non-sectarian, non-racist party with no prejudices against foreigners or lawful minorities of any kind. It does not recognise the legitimacy of the European parliament and will send representatives only to the British parliament in Westminster."

"They got rid of all that after I left," says Sked, who resigned the leadership shortly after the 1997 general election. He claims that the tolerant, liberal and democratic party he founded was taken over by rightwingers and that, outgunned and outmanoeuvred by Farage and other leading figures after that election, he had no alternative but to quit.

"They took out the bit about no prejudices against lawful minorities and, as soon as I disappeared, they all decided they wanted to go to the European parliament and take their expenses."

...But even if Farage's recent statements about not wanting to live next door to Romanians suggest he is xenophobic, is there any proof he was racist when he and Sked worked together in the mid-1990s? Sked laughs at the question and recalls an incident from 1997 when the two men were arguing over the kind of candidates that Ukip should have standing at the looming general election. "He wanted ex-National Front candidates to run and I said, 'I'm not sure about that,' and he said, 'There's no need to worry about the n****r vote. The nig-nogs will never vote for us.'"

Farage has denied that he said these words and always insists that he is not racist.

How did Sked feel to hear such language? Who uses such racist words unless they think they're addressing a fellow racist or suspects they can co-opt the hearer into sharing their racist agenda? Sked shakes his head. "I was shocked," he says. "I had never heard people use those words. At the time, others thought he was being funny. I didn't. They showed what kind of man he is."

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/may/26/ukip-founder-alan-sked-party-become-frankensteins-monster

 

 

[pig]

3 minutes ago, Byron said:

Is there something wrong with you?

Most people understand why foreign shops are not welcome, why don't you?

Oh dear.

[knock out johnny]

10 minutes ago, Byron said:

Is there something wrong with you?

Most people understand why foreign shops are not welcome, why don't you?

And that's all she wrote - thank you

I truly despise and loathe you and your ilk - may you wallow in greater and greater misery - you don't even get my pity

This is really becoming a fetid little land

Edited June 20, 2017 by knock out johnny

[slawek]

12 minutes ago, Byron said:

Is there something wrong with you?

Most people understand why foreign shops are not welcome, why don't you?

Do you have a van? Are we going to see you on tely soon?