Brexit What Happens Next Thread ---multiple merged threads.

[rollover]

14 minutes ago, GrizzlyDave said:

Exactly - it is the only option to be acceptable to the majority (imho).

Majority?

 

Quote

 

Norway-style Brexit option can't be considered, Corbyn tells MPs

Guardian

 

 

[HairyOb1]

7 minutes ago, Dave Beans said:

Nope...I'm not not getting into bitter arguments, because it solves nothing...The size of the single market acquis is 5780.  That's all the UK would have to take on...

Again, that is not the flaming discussion; you were discussing Norway, as was I, and their law statutes are 75% based on EU law.  That's my sole argument in this.  You said I was talking out of my ar5e and I am simply not, I am given you facts and quotes from people who are or were involved in it all.  You can't say I am talking sh17 simply as you don't agree with something I am proving factual, it's disingenuous 

I linked to another report, that if we tried the same model, we'd end up with around 2/3rds of our current 80% EU laws.

My whole point is that Norway is pretty much in full regulatory alignment with the EU and also statute.  They are, that's proven, demonstrable.  No, we'll not have to do the same, but we'll be a lot higher than 20% and it's also not Brexit.  If we go Norway, we go FOM and the other 3 pillars of the EU, it will simply not be Brexit in any way shape or form.

I also can't see ERG going for it, so it's going to be a big test for her leadership

Edited May 15, 2018 by HairyOb1

[Confusion of VIs]

50 minutes ago, GrizzlyDave said:

Spoiler alert - we are going to take the Norway option.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/05/14/theresa-may-hits-wall-eu-customs-deal-admits-current-options/

It was clear from the outset that neither options was workable. Makes you wonder just how thick the Cabinet must be to have wasted this amount of time and effort warring over two unworkable options.

Still not as thick as Corbyn, who couldn't see an open goal from 5 yards away. Labour has a golden no lose opportunity to push for an EEA type deal. If the government is forced to follow he looks like a leader if they don't they will have 100% ownership of all the problems to come.     

[OnionTerror]

1 minute ago, HairyOb1 said:

Again, that is not the flaming discussion; you were discussing Norway, as was I, and their law statutes are 75% based on EU law.  That's my sole argument in this.  You said I was talking out of my ar5e and I am simply not, I am given you facts and quotes from people who are or were involved in it all.  You can't talk sh17 and then say you don't want to talk shi7, it's disingenuous 

 I linked to another report, that if we tried the same model, we'd end up with around 2/3rds of our current 80% EU laws.

 My whole point is that Norway is pretty much in full regulatory alignment with the EU and also statute.  They are, that's proven, demonstrable.  No, we'll not have to do the same, but we'll be. a lot higher than 20% and it's also not Brexit.  If we go Norway, we got FOM and the other 3 pillars of the EU, it will simply not be Brexit in any way shape or form.

Did you read the link I sent you...Which explains the figures in the report?

[HairyOb1]

Just now, Dave Beans said:

Did you read the link I sent you...Which explains the figures in the report?

Not all of it, but I am also guessing from your own replies you read none of the 'Outside and Inside' link I supplied.

Look, this is going nowhere.  I have quoted from their own report, and their own minster, in that they acquiesce to 75% of EU law and that number will rise.  I am happy that's going to be the truth, enough for me to think, ok, that makes sense.

After rebates, their contribution is almost the same as us too, but that's a different argument.  It isn't Brexit, in any way shape or form.

[GrizzlyDave]

Not wishing to wade in but looking at Iceland (another EFTA member) they have adopted 10% of EU laws;

https://icelandmonitor.mbl.is/news/politics_and_society/2015/10/21/iceland_has_adopted_10_prosent_of_eu_laws/

[OnionTerror]

3 minutes ago, HairyOb1 said:

Not all of it, but I am also guessing from your own replies you read none of the 'Outside and Inside' link I supplied.

Look, this is going nowhere.  I have quoted from their own report, and their own minster, in that they acquiesce to 75% of EU law and that number will rise.  I am happy that's going to be the truth, enough for me to think, ok, that makes sense.

 After rebates, their contribution is almost the same as us too, but that's a different argument.  It isn't Brexit, in any way shape or form.

I agree it isn't going anyway, and the figure of about 20ish percent is right....What is Brexit to you?  Are you full on WTO hardcore, let's treat the Brexiteers to a taste of their own medicine kind of person, or do you want a pragmatic approach?

Edited May 15, 2018 by Dave Beans

[GrizzlyDave]

12 minutes ago, rollover said:

Majority?

 

 

Imho. It is acceptable. Not preferred. Not favoured. Merely acceptable. Yes. Imho. Yes.

[HairyOb1]

1 minute ago, GrizzlyDave said:

Not wishing to wade in but looking at Iceland (another EFTA member) they have adopted 10% of EU laws;

https://icelandmonitor.mbl.is/news/politics_and_society/2015/10/21/iceland_has_adopted_10_prosent_of_eu_laws/

I looked at an article today that said it was closer to 18%, but I am not starting that one, unless I can retrieve the link

 

[GrizzlyDave]

9 minutes ago, Confusion of VIs said:

It was clear from the outset that neither options was workable. Makes you wonder just how thick the Cabinet must be to have wasted this amount of time and effort warring over two unworkable options.

Still not as thick as Corbyn, who couldn't see an open goal from 5 yards away. Labour has a golden no lose opportunity to push for an EEA type deal. If the government is forced to follow he looks like a leader if they don't they will have 100% ownership of all the problems to come.     

Starmer knows this and wants this. JC is just a human shield.

[HairyOb1]

6 minutes ago, Dave Beans said:

I agree it isn't going anyway, and the figure of about 20ish percent is right....What is Brexit to you?  Are you full on WTO hardcore, let's treat the Brexiteers to a taste of their own medicine kind of person, or do you want a pragmatic approach?

Dave, it simply isn't, you think it is, I think it isn't, there are no absolutes.  I know that, which is why I want to stop, as it's pointless, we're entrenched and will only regurgitate what we think.  I am happy to agree to disagree.

I am totally against Brexit.  However, I am of two minds when it comes to it, one is, yes, let our world burn for a couple of years, which would lead to full integration in the EU, Euro, joint armed forces, etc.  The other is pragmatic, yes, a Norway type model, that I was initially against, but feel, like Dave, the only model which would get a good majority support in the UK.

If I am in a generous mood, I think I support the Norway model, if I am just astonished at the Brexit rhetoric we're still being subjected to, I feel the house on fire option would best suit us.

So I am 50% Jon2b, 50% Grizzly in the matter.  Still not really decided on what's the best option.

[jonb2]

13 hours ago, GrizzlyDave said:

It’s not about being better it’s about being distinct, sovereign, individual, happy.

Again GD

 

[HairyOb1]

One thing I do believe, 100%, is that whatever happens, if we do leave in any way, we will rejoin at a later date, and the terms of us rejoining will not be as favourable as they are now.  That's the main reason I think this is all folly, a vanity piece gone wrong, and instead of people acting on that, that vanity is still driving it all.

[OnionTerror]

10 minutes ago, HairyOb1 said:

Dave, it simply isn't, you think it is, I think it isn't, there are no absolutes.  I know that, which is why I want to stop, as it's pointless, we're entrenched and will only regurgitate what we think.  I am happy to agree to disagree.

 I am totally against Brexit.  However, I am of two minds when it comes to it, one is, yes, let our world burn for a couple of years, which would lead to full integration in the EU, Euro, joint armed forces, etc.  The other is pragmatic, yes, a Norway type model, that I was initially against, but feel, like Dave, the only model which would get a good majority support in the UK.

 If I am in a generous mood, I think I support the Norway model, if I am just astonished at the Brexit rhetoric we're still being subjected to, I feel the house on fire option would best suit us.

So I am 50% Jon2b, 50% Grizzly in the matter.  Still not really decided on what's the best option.

Even if the government went down the "accidental Brexit" , where time ran out and it lead us to the WTO.  I don't think a couple of years on the WTO would automatically lead us back into the EU...After a few weeks, or months, we would end up going back down the EEA route...

An FTA is not much better than the WTO...all you are doing is removing tariffs & quotas.  It would also take several years to agree...

Edited May 15, 2018 by Dave Beans

[jonb2]

12 hours ago, highYield said:

Well, no - Brexit focussed attention on how appallingly the Home Office had decided/were told to (?) treat UK residents from the Windrush generation - when our politicos had no EU layers above them to lay the blame on / hide behind, they were rapidly fired and/or held responsible.

Hopefully an indication of how things will be if we do indeed leave the EU. 

Responsible politicians.

Did you mention the Home Office HY?

http://metro.co.uk/2018/05/13/crystal-meth-found-home-office-headquarters-london-7543132/

[HairyOb1]

1 minute ago, Dave Beans said:

Even if the government went down the "accidental Brexit" , where time ran out and it lead us to the WTO.  I don't think a couple of years on the WTO would automatically lead us back into the EU...After a few weeks, or months, we would end up going back down the EEA route...

An FTA is not much better than the WTO...all you are doing is removing tariffs & quotas.  It would also take several years to agree...

But that's the rub to me, as when we fall out of the EU based on the dates on Art 50, we have to 'apply' to join EEA, which can be vetoed.  I am off the mind it would be vetoed, as it keeps the pressure on us.

I truly believe, within my lifetime, if we do leave in any meaningful way, we'll be back but as fill members, Schengen, Euro, EU Army and Police, all of it.  As I think the only way we'll be allowed back in, would be on full membership terms with no veto too.

 

[HairyOb1]

3 minutes ago, jonb2 said:

Did you mention the Home Office HY?

http://metro.co.uk/2018/05/13/crystal-meth-found-home-office-headquarters-london-7543132/

Or the fact they do still have those EU layers above them and were still held responsible and fired.

More hot air from HY unfortunately.

[GrizzlyDave]

16 minutes ago, jonb2 said:

Again GD

 

What’s your point, that income inequality was falling in the Uk until we joined the EU?

Edited May 15, 2018 by GrizzlyDave

[OnionTerror]

7 minutes ago, HairyOb1 said:

But that's the rub to me, as when we fall out of the EU based on the dates on Art 50, we have to 'apply' to join EEA, which can be vetoed.  I am off the mind it would be vetoed, as it keeps the pressure on us.

I truly believe, within my lifetime, if we do leave in any meaningful way, we'll be back but as fill members, Schengen, Euro, EU Army and Police, all of it.  As I think the only way we'll be allowed back in, would be on full membership terms with no veto too.

 

I agree with you, in regards to, if we had to re-enter, it would be a full in, no holes barred integration...although I don't think it is inevitable.

[HairyOb1]

3 minutes ago, Dave Beans said:

I agree with you, in regards to, if we had to re-enter, it would be a full in, no holes barred integration...although I don't think it is inevitable.

Maybe that's just wishful thinking on my part then!

I do think we'll reenter, just a matter of when, if we do actually leave.  I still don't think we'll leave, not in any solid way.

[jonb2]

2 minutes ago, GrizzlyDave said:

What’s your point?

The point is, as it always has been -

" It’s not about being better it’s about being distinct, sovereign, individual, happy. "

Westminster is the destroyer of all good things.

Looking at the graph - inequality is not nearly as bad in most of Europe compared to most Anglo western countries. The EU have a better value system that we should learn from. We are not leaving neo-liberalism, we are leaving the EU.

[jonb2]

15 minutes ago, HairyOb1 said:

Or the fact they do still have those EU layers above them and were still held responsible and fired.

More hot air from HY unfortunately.

For me, it explains Brexit. A crystal-meth induced hot sweat nightmare (with bad teeth).

Edited May 15, 2018 by jonb2

[OnionTerror]

2 minutes ago, HairyOb1 said:

Maybe that's just wishful thinking on my part then!

I do think we'll reenter, just a matter of when, if we do actually leave.  I still don't think we'll leave, not in any solid way.

We have about 6 weeks to find out, where the EU 27 are going to make a decision if enough progress has been made...The EU are already planning for no deal if nothing is agreed.  They have already said that the withdrawal agreement & transition will not happen if nothing is agreed..

[jonb2]

12 minutes ago, GrizzlyDave said:

What’s your point, that income inequality was falling in the Uk until we joined the EU?

You edited it. No the beginning of the Thatcher/Reagan wet dream. The other counties in Europe in the graph don't have the same level of problems.

[HairyOb1]

12 minutes ago, Dave Beans said:

We have about 6 weeks to find out, where the EU 27 are going to make a decision if enough progress has been made...The EU are already planning for no deal if nothing is agreed.  They have already said that the withdrawal agreement & transition will not happen if nothing is agreed..

I think they'll come to an agreement of a longer transition phase, but we'll have to agree to all sorts of conditions, I would imagine.  I know of some companies on the continent who are contingency planning on full swivel eyed Brexit.