thehowler Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 1 hour ago, Dave Beans said: Nowt wrong in leaving, otherwise what? we rescind a50 and it’ll be remain in name only? Go to the WA and EFTA stays on the table. We get a hard out and it’s an association agreement with a permanent backstop. Yes. MPs don't seem to realize that a deal will have to be done, and if we don't agree to it before the Art 50 end date the negotiations will be even tougher - with a worse outcome - for us. But I'm not convinced that a majority of MPs even know what the SM is. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bruce Banner Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 3 minutes ago, thehowler said: Yes. MPs don't seem to realize that a deal will have to be done, and if we don't agree to it before the Art 50 end date the negotiations will be even tougher - with a worse outcome - for us. But I'm not convinced that a majority of MPs even know what the SM is. But a deal does not have to be done! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thehowler Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 1 hour ago, Dorkins said: I don't think this is true. Territorial sovereignty is very much a de facto status and is based on who has the monopoly on force within a given geographical area - just look at Crimea. Only Russia says it's Russian but they use rubles, have Russian passports, the Russian military is there and you can't get in there without a Russian visa. Sure, the UK government made some commitments in the GFA but as a sovereign nation it could unilaterally say it is withdrawing from the GFA and will no longer honour those commitments and will instead do as it pleases in NI. If there were RoI/EU troops in NI I would agree that the UK had ceded full sovereignty. Edit: same principle applies to the backstop in the WA. The UK can sign the WA, commit to the backstop, and later unilaterally withdraw from it if it so chooses. That's what sovereignty is. Can the govt unilaterally withdraw from the GFA? I think it might have to be done through consulting the people of NI. That was the essence of my point on reduced remote control over NI. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dorkins Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 24 minutes ago, thehowler said: Are you saying the EU would take legal action against ROI to impose border checks? The EU operates according to rule of law, so if a member state was breaking the law a case would be raised at the ECJ or (more likely) the law would be changed to make the RoI-NI border an exception. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OnionTerror Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 28 minutes ago, thehowler said: So what would the EU do? Both the ROI and Brits have said they would not impose controls. Juncker is on film saying no border controls, in any circumstance. The DUP have said they will refuse to adopt or legislate for any ports/sea checks. This was always the risk for the ROI running straight to the EU. They all thought MPs would have no choice but to take the deal, but it now looks as though they'll resist. Are you saying the EU would take legal action against ROI to impose border checks? https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/amp.independent.ie/business/brexit/hard-border-will-not-be-avoided-by-good-intentions-alone-say-varadkar-and-may-37685931.html Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thehowler Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 (edited) 29 minutes ago, Dave Beans said: https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/amp.independent.ie/business/brexit/hard-border-will-not-be-avoided-by-good-intentions-alone-say-varadkar-and-may-37685931.html Nothing substantive in any of that, the usual waffle. Something will have to break. It will either be MPs getting behind May's deal, now or later, or Varadkar offering a compromise. Is it really worth the risk of no deal 80 days from now for the climbdown of a 5/10 year break clause? Edited January 8, 2019 by thehowler Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bruce Banner Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 3 minutes ago, thehowler said: Nothing substantive in any of that, the usual waffle. Something will have to break. It will either be MPs getting behind May's deal, now or later, or Varadkar offering a compromise. Is it really worth the risk of no deal 80 days from now for the climbdown of a 5/10 year break clause? Hopefully, MPs won't be "getting behind" May's deal, or any "Son of May's deal". No deal, no problem! Or better still, revoke A50. Or the democratic option... Ask the people to confirm their wishes in the light of what they have learned over the last two years. If they go for May's deal, so be it! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OnionTerror Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 (edited) 46 minutes ago, thehowler said: Nothing substantive in any of that, the usual waffle. Something will have to break. It will either be MPs getting behind May's deal, now or later, or Varadkar offering a compromise. Is it really worth the risk of no deal 80 days from now for the climbdown of a 5/10 year break clause? The EU may suggest that goods coming into the SM from ROI need to be checked (although I dont think it will). We shall have to wait and see. Edited January 8, 2019 by Dave Beans Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thehowler Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 39 minutes ago, Dave Beans said: The EU may suggest that goods coming into the SM from ROI need to be checked (although I dont think it will). We shall have to wait and see. That was my first thought, given ROI won't have a land border with the EU. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kzb Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 3 minutes ago, thehowler said: That was my first thought, given ROI won't have a land border with the EU. Would it not be illegal to institute checks on a fellow EU member? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GrizzlyDave Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 1 hour ago, kzb said: Would it not be illegal to institute checks on a fellow EU member? Gosh this sounds rather awkward ???? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thehowler Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 Well, Varadkar has made his gamble. If the deal doesn't squeak through - largely because the backstop is perceived to be constitutionally outrageous by many MPs - I can't imagine his minority govt will last for long. Another player gone from the scene. Precious few of the Brexit cast will be left in power as we enter 2020, I imagine. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thehowler Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 Nerves rising in Dublin...replace strategic mistake with end of our careers... As an Irish diplomat was quoted as telling the Bloomberg news agency, “this will either be an incredible diplomatic triumph or a strategic mistake”. https://www.irishtimes.com/news/world/brexit/ireland-s-brexit-backstop-gamble-may-not-be-a-wise-bet-1.3739427 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thehowler Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 So the EU can see that May is going to lose the vote. Does anyone disagree? Yet they still refuse to move on the backstop. Do they really think Parliament will force the govt to revoke Art 50 and the Brits will abandon Brexit? Who will crack first? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GrizzlyDave Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 2 minutes ago, thehowler said: So the EU can see that May is going to lose the vote. Does anyone disagree? Yet they still refuse to move on the backstop. Do they really think Parliament will force the govt to revoke Art 50 and the Brits will abandon Brexit? Who will crack first? I suggest pragmatically that the EU want to see the WA vote result and respond accordigly. If it is a massive rejection then that is a very different scenario to a close defeat; whereby the EU might look to tweak the WA to enable a narrow win at a second vote. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IMHAL Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 (edited) https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-46799778 "There's a big problem facing members of Parliament who want to avoid a no-deal Brexit. They can't just show there is a majority in the House of Commons against no deal - they need to prove there is a majority in favour of an alternative outcome." I love this quote.... if you take THAT quote above and transpose it to the Referendum.... you get.... You can't just show there is a majority in the House of Commons against Remain - you need to prove there is a majority in favour of an alternative outcome." Brexit was not an alternative outcome .... it was a set of alternative outcomes, none of which are acceptable. And therein lies the problem with the referendum and why it was flawed. Maybe a bit academic now....but flawed none the less. Edited January 8, 2019 by IMHAL Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bruce Banner Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 15 minutes ago, thehowler said: So the EU can see that May is going to lose the vote. Does anyone disagree? Yet they still refuse to move on the backstop. Do they really think Parliament will force the govt to revoke Art 50 and the Brits will abandon Brexit? Who will crack first? No Yes, they do Yes, I hope so, but a 2nd referendum would be more democratic. Not May, she doesn't know when to give up , but hopefully the decision will be made for her Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thehowler Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 18 minutes ago, GrizzlyDave said: I suggest pragmatically that the EU want to see the WA vote result and respond accordigly. If it is a massive rejection then that is a very different scenario to a close defeat; whereby the EU might look to tweak the WA to enable a narrow win at a second vote. I always feared the ROI would get sold down the river. The world's got history for that. Varadkar's strategy to either force us into backstop or cancel Brexit has a paradoxical weakness with its big stick, in that the worst outcome for us - no deal - is also the worst for him. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bruce Banner Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 1 minute ago, thehowler said: I always feared the ROI would get sold down the river. The world's got history for that. Varadkar's strategy to either force us into backstop or cancel Brexit has a paradoxical weakness with its big stick, in that the worst outcome for us - no deal - is also the worst for him. Correction, the worst option for us is May's deal! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thehowler Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 21 minutes ago, IMHAL said: Brexit was not an alternative outcome .... it was a set of alternative outcomes, none of which are acceptable. And therein lies the problem with the referendum and why it was flawed. Maybe a bit academic now....but flawed none the less. It was in or out. Joe Public didn't set the question. MPs did. They can either take what's available for out - the vote result - or they can defy the result. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bruce Banner Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 1 minute ago, thehowler said: It was in or out. Joe Public didn't set the question. MPs did. They can either take what's available for out - the vote result - or they can defy the result. It's not that simple and you know it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thehowler Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 1 minute ago, Bruce Banner said: Correction, the worst option for us is May's deal! Bruce, there will be a deal. You can have May's deal now or you can take something worse in 6 months or a year but we will, inevitably, sit down with the EU and make a deal. Even pariah states make deals. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thehowler Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 1 minute ago, Bruce Banner said: It's not that simple and you know it. The public made their choice. The govt interpreted their choice. Parliament then refused/enacted that choice. So the history will show. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thehowler Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 And by the way, if we do/did go back in it will be on a much closer footing. Don't think for a moment the EU are going to suffer all this BS and then readmit us on the same half-assed, non-committal, not-sure status as before. That time is gone. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GrizzlyDave Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 7 minutes ago, thehowler said: I always feared the ROI would get sold down the river. The world's got history for that. Varadkar's strategy to either force us into backstop or cancel Brexit has a paradoxical weakness with its big stick, in that the worst outcome for us - no deal - is also the worst for him. I don’t see it as the ROI being sold down the river. A couple of forwards need to peel off, and get behind the maul, to push it over the try line. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.