Brexit What Happens Next Thread ---multiple merged threads.

[cashinmattress]

1 hour ago, TJHooker said:

It isn't the major reason i voted to leave

I'll bite... go on then.

What is the major reason you voted leave?

[Confusion of VIs]

5 minutes ago, rollover said:

It looks to me that the Labour doesn't want to play the ball, simply because they don't need to.

Any step they will take - support or reject May's/Tories plan, come with their own plan or support second referendum, would drag them further and further into Brexit quagmire. And straight away Labour will be co-responsible for Brexit and the following mess.

If they stay out, Tories will be fully responsible for creating the Brexit issue, delivering referendum, negotiating, delivering the Brexit and all the mess and turmoil that will follow after.

An opposition that is too frightened to oppose won't win power anytime soon. To take advantage of May' failure to secure a good deal they have to been seen to impose it and appear united. 

Given the Parliamentary arithmetic this means defeating May and forcing her into either adopting a Labour/cross party proposal or doubling down with a no deal exit.

Hoping that things will be so bad by the time of the next election that Labour will be guaranteed to win is not a realistic policy, as Brexit will be a slow motion car crash with the damage developing over the next five or ten years and the electorate probably still willing to give the Tories the benefit of the doubt in the 22 election.

[Guest]

3 minutes ago, Confusion of VIs said:

Hoping that things will be so bad by the time of the next election that Labour will be guaranteed to win is not a realistic policy, as Brexit will be a slow motion car crash with the damage developing over the next five or ten years and the electorate probably still willing to give the Tories the benefit of the doubt in the 22 election.

You don't ascribe to the remain unicorn fantasy; i.e. that Brexit will be so absolutely atrociously awful that we'll be begging to rejoin on much worse terms (Euro, no veto, no rebate) ?

[GrizzlyDave]

1 hour ago, dugsbody said:

It is the major reason people voted to leave the EU. Every single nonsense argument about trade deals and sovereignty eventually boils down to ending freedom of movement. It's what you all want primarily, it's just that some are more honest about it than others.

Why stop at the EU border - why not have global FOM.

[Guest]

48 minutes ago, rollover said:

It looks to me that the Labour doesn't want to play the ball, simply because they don't need to.

Any step they will take - support or reject May's/Tories plan, come with their own plan or support second referendum, would drag them further and further into Brexit quagmire. And straight away Labour will be co-responsible for Brexit and the following mess.

If they stay out, Tories will be fully responsible for creating the Brexit issue, delivering referendum, negotiating, delivering the Brexit and all the mess and turmoil that will follow after.

It looks to me that you don't really understand the British parliamentary system.

[OnionTerror]

6 hours ago, thehowler said:

Too many ifs and buts there though. EFTA has its own budget requirements - tiny, admittedly. And nobody in govt wants/admits they want sole WTO, they're still talking about close, frictionless trade with EU. May making the usual promises in Sunday Times today, (easy trade, NI, right to make own trade deals - "I will not let you down") raising stakes on resignation if she doesn't get them.

Customs Partnership still resolves all this though, EU keeping very quiet about it since the positive remarks by Ireland last week.

A customs partnership won’t prevent a hard border.  You’re only mucking about with tariffs. It won’t resolve non tariff barriers.

Edited May 13, 2018 by Dave Beans

[rollover]

25 minutes ago, Confusion of VIs said:

An opposition that is too frightened to oppose won't win power anytime soon. To take advantage of May' failure to secure a good deal they have to been seen to impose it and appear united. 

Given the Parliamentary arithmetic this means defeating May and forcing her into either adopting a Labour/cross party proposal or doubling down with a no deal exit.

Hoping that things will be so bad by the time of the next election that Labour will be guaranteed to win is not a realistic policy, as Brexit will be a slow motion car crash with the damage developing over the next five or ten years and the electorate probably still willing to give the Tories the benefit of the doubt in the 22 election.

Why disrupt Tories just now, when they are doing very good job and tear themselves apart.

About 60 of them support hard Brexit. For that reason there is no middle way or any kind of agreement that will get support and time is running out.

Tories are in driving seat and are running out with promised but for them undeliverable options and also excuses.

Anybody who will join the Brexit bandwagon now, will be co-responsible and share the blame.

[Guest]

2 minutes ago, rollover said:

Why disrupt Tories just now, when they are doing very good job and tear themselves apart.

About 60 of them support hard Brexit. For that reason there is no middle way or any kind of agreement that will get support and time is running out.

Tories are in driving seat and are running out with promised but for them undeliverable options and also excuses.

Anybody who will join the Brexit bandwagon now, will be co-responsible and share the blame.

It looks to me that you don't really understand the British parliamentary system.

[rollover]

9 minutes ago, highYield said:

It looks to me that you don't really understand the British parliamentary system.

It's quite possible, but I think you completely missed Tories internal numbers. They are now fighting themselves, why to get involved.

[Guest]

Just now, rollover said:

It's quite possible, but I think you completely missed Tories internal numbers. They are now fighting themselves, why to get involved.

Yes, entirely possible that a UK eligible to vote Brexit geek completely missed that.

Oh - wait - no, it's not.

[rollover]

11 minutes ago, highYield said:

Yes, entirely possible that a UK eligible to vote Brexit geek completely missed that.

Oh - wait - no, it's not.

Exactly, Good point. UKIP is already forgotten and Tories are the only one now holding the Brexit parcel. And the parcel has to be delivered soon.

Edited May 13, 2018 by rollover

[rollover]

33 minutes ago, highYield said:

It looks to me that you don't really understand the British parliamentary system.

If Labour don't bite, the numbers don't add up. Because the number is not there. It's going to be seen who miscalculated.

[cashinmattress]

23 minutes ago, rollover said:

Exactly, Good point. UKIP is already forgotten and Tories are the only one now holding the Brexit parcel. And the parcel has to be delivered soon.

Corbin is pro-Brexit, albeit an unelectable socialist: however,.. that's 257 labour seats added to 316 tory seats.

The parcel is firmly in the hands of both parties.

 

[Guest]

11 minutes ago, cashinmattress said:

Corbin is pro-Brexit, albeit an unelectable socialist: however,.. that's 257 labour seats added to 316 tory seats.

The parcel is firmly in the hands of both parties.

That seems how our current parliamentary duopoly 'works'. Even a DUP hung one.

[rollover]

39 minutes ago, cashinmattress said:

Corbin is pro-Brexit, albeit an unelectable socialist: however,.. that's 257 labour seats added to 316 tory seats.

The parcel is firmly in the hands of both parties.

 

I could be wrong, but I think Labour don't play, that's minus 257 labour seats. And the parcel is firmly in the Tory hands exclusively.

[Guest]

 

from:

21 hours ago, rollover said:

 

Jezza is the power that can save UK from Brexit. Go, go, go!

to:

4 minutes ago, rollover said:

I could be wrong, but I think Labour don't play, that's minus 257 labour seats. And the parcel is firmly in the Tory hands exclusively.

In the same day. What's the point?

[rollover]

6 minutes ago, highYield said:

 

from:

to:

In the same day. What's the point?

Sorry, in two days!

My point is, the less Jezza do now the more he will gain. He could just comfortably sit back and watch the show unravel, with jumbo size popcorn on his side.

[Guest]

1 minute ago, rollover said:

Sorry, in two days!

My point is, the less Jezza do now the more he will gain. He could just comfortably sit back and watch the show unravel, with jumbo size popcorn on his side.

Good point. 2 days.

That's not how our political duopoly works; there are no real abstentions. Whipping a vote *against* Brexit would be a complete volte face for Corbyn - so many of our politicians have been pilloried for much less, let alone going against the willow the people. The multitude of new possible political paths that'd enable would deserve a thread of their own. Even Corbyn giving a free vote in the HoC on a Brexit vote seems implausible.

[pig]

3 hours ago, rollover said:

Why disrupt Tories just now, when they are doing very good job and tear themselves apart.

About 60 of them support hard Brexit. For that reason there is no middle way or any kind of agreement that will get support and time is running out.

Tories are in driving seat and are running out with promised but for them undeliverable options and also excuses.

Anybody who will join the Brexit bandwagon now, will be co-responsible and share the blame.

Because filibustering the country to calamity is probably what the 60 are after ?

Be brilliant for the Batshit Brexiters if we were booted out on WTO terms and they simply get to blame May...

[Guest]

4 minutes ago, pig said:

Because filibustering the country to calamity is probably what the 60 are after ?

Be brilliant for the Batshit Brexiters if we were booted out on WTO terms and they simply get to blame May...

You appear to be forgetting that the few main advocates on this thread for a hard Brexit are remainers.

[Confusion of VIs]

3 hours ago, highYield said:

You don't ascribe to the remain unicorn fantasy; i.e. that Brexit will be so absolutely atrociously awful that we'll be begging to rejoin on much worse terms (Euro, no veto, no rebate) ?

No, my view has always been that Brexit will be a slow motion car crash. It will probably take 10 years before the true scale of the damage becomes clear. 

Of course whatever happens the Brexiteers will deny it has anything to do to Brexit, just like they are already in denial that the UK's relative economic underperformance since the vote has anything to do with Brexit.  

I cannot find any public figures to verify this (the published figures are too lumpy to discern underlying trends) but last month I was told by someone working in DexEU that they estimate the vote has already cost the UK £60bn of foreign direct investment and that the downward trend is accelerating. This is now one of their major concerns over Brexit.

What is in the open is the OECD's estimate that the loss to the UK economy has already exceeded our annual contributions to the EU and will be double them by the time we Leave in 2019.

Unfortunately we are a slowly boiling frog. It would actually be better for us if the damage was going to be immediately apparent but with things like reduced FDI and trade frictions causing firms to consolidate production within the single market, by the time the damage is apparent it is already too late to do anything about it. Meanwhile the Brexiteers will keep their fingers in their ears while chanting project fear to avoid having to accept any evidence of damage.  

As for rejoining. Once we are out (possibly including out of transition) the chances of getting back in will be remote. First we would have to come to terms with the national humiliation of asking to be let back in and then not have our application vetoed by one or more countries. 

[dugsbody]

7 hours ago, TJHooker said:

 

If i had known you're a libtard who wishes to bring down all borders i'd have ignored your childlike posts from the start.

Yes someone who travels the world for the last 2 decades and raises a mixed race child on my own clearly has a limited nationalist views.You libtards really are ignorant silly little boys.

People in the EU are allowed to move in their trading union, but fascists student union libtards like yourself can't accept the will of the majority of the British people and a democratic vote.

I want to limit people coming here as its better for my families life, why are you so undoubtedly childlike that you don't understand the reason people vote?

I'm just quoting this post because it reminds me I definitely picked the correct side supporting remain. 

Libtards move the world forward, dragging regressive conservative people who fear change such as woman being allowed to vote, kicking and screaming into a better world. You're welcome.

[Funn3r]

37 minutes ago, Confusion of VIs said:

No, my view has always been that Brexit will be a slow motion car crash. It will probably take 10 years before the true scale of the damage becomes clear. 

Of course whatever happens the Brexiteers will deny it has anything to do to Brexit, just like they are already in denial that the UK's relative economic underperformance since the vote has anything to do with Brexit.  

I cannot find any public figures to verify this (the published figures are too lumpy to discern underlying trends) but last month I was told by someone working in DexEU that they estimate the vote has already cost the UK £60bn of foreign direct investment and that the downward trend is accelerating. This is now one of their major concerns over Brexit.

What is in the open is the OECD's estimate that the loss to the UK economy has already exceeded our annual contributions to the EU and will be double them by the time we Leave in 2019.

Unfortunately we are a slowly boiling frog. It would actually be better for us if the damage was going to be immediately apparent but with things like reduced FDI and trade frictions causing firms to consolidate production within the single market, by the time the damage is apparent it is already too late to do anything about it. Meanwhile the Brexiteers will keep their fingers in their ears while chanting project fear to avoid having to accept any evidence of damage.  

As for rejoining. Once we are out (possibly including out of transition) the chances of getting back in will be remote. First we would have to come to terms with the national humiliation of asking to be let back in and then not have our application vetoed by one or more countries. 

Yes but we'll get blue passports? 

[thehowler]

5 hours ago, rollover said:

For that reason there is no middle way or any kind of agreement that will get support and time is running out.

Melodrama.

CP is the middle way. And yes, Dave Beans, it prevents a hard border.

Why is everyone refusing to accept that CP is a potential way out of this - if the EU can be persuaded to accede? Again...we'd have full access to Single Market, so no hard border. NI border would be unchanged. And we could make our own trade deals. May could put CP to the HoC and defeat Mogg and co.

So get behind it.

 

[Funn3r]

Rochdale Herald nails it as usual