Telegraph: Ten Reasons Why I'm Looking Forwards To The House Price Crash

[olde guto]

It's heartening to see this - although you can't help but wonder .... why wasn't this written years ago? Typical coy journalism waiting until the housing bubble is at its worst before admitting to it. The same paper that's been talking up house prices for years. Now the editor gives the go-ahead to state the bleeding obvious:-

No sh!t sherlock.

Yeah, right. Fact is mate - money talks. You might feel guilty, but you'll take the money and sell up at a profit.

It's all about the timing. Too early and it'll be seen either as the work of a tin hat nut job or baseless doommongering (so it won't even get past the editor). Get just right and you'll be seen as some sort of economic oracle.

There is a definite narrative in the MSM regarding bubble popping, prices being insane, foreign investors fleeing, market collapsing.

Next up.....tell the sheeple that the crash has started.....

PANIC PANIC PANIC.

This is softening them up for the bad good news of the HPC. They don't want to have too controversial a headline now as people will just reject it.

[TheCountOfNowhere]

IIt's all about the timing. Too early and it'll be seen either as the work of a tin hat nut job or baseless doommongering (so it won't even get past the editor). Get just right and you'll be seen as some sort of economic oracle.

I'm both.

[19 year mortgage 8itch]

He is so one of us. But whom?

Privileged, 40-something white guys are 10 a penny

[pig]

They were banging on about that one all the time in the 80s and here the UK still is - with average standards of living still getting ever more relentlessly reduced year on year.

Point number 8 about there being better jobs/future for scientists and engineers etc That's a good 'un - google/bing Harold Wilson (the 1960s) for a laugh on that one.

From Wikipedia

Indeed there's likely to be a house price crash and also quite likely pretty soon but articles like the telegraph's have been published over and over again in the telegraph and in other outlets over past decades so people shouldn't build their hopes up that the UK will change in the way they try to imply. The chances of that change happening aren't entirely non existent but as things are the chances are extremely slim to virtually impossible.

Well - that is really interesting to know, I had no idea. Would be interesting to delve into this and see what happened. Presumably something to do with the oil crisis+winter of discontent ?

Because following that logic the difference now is that there is a post 2008 credit crunch audience that increasingly understands what now appears to be screwing everything up for whom articles like this - not to mention films like the Big Short - now actually mean something. Frankly it would have all passed over my head prior to 2004-ish.

Its not as if we're simply about to 'delete Thatcherism, copy paste Wilsonism' (whatever that is!), but the gross distortions of the economy through real estate speculation, [brace for Eric Pebble impact] liar loans, banker and financial industry cluster**ks etc are real and tangible.

[billybong]

The UK economy seems far worse now than even in the 80s after the awful worst of the then oil crisis and all the other 70s stuff etc and people are more generally aware (or at least they can be if they're interested enough). Also to be fair The Big Short is far more precise, revealing and truthful about the scandalous financial behaviours than any other popular film on general release in the past.

The main point is that the idea that excessive investment in housing detracts from investment in real productive stuff (and is therefore of course a bad thing) isn't a new idea as propagated in that telegraph article nor is the idea mentioned in the telegraph about scientists and engineers etc eventually benefiting. So far despite all the decades things don't seem to have changed much in terms of sectorial favouritism - indeed the economy, economic imbalances and job type inequalities seem to be far worse.

It is a bit disappointing to realise that (to say the very very least) but that's the reality.

Edited February 8, 2016 by billybong

[eric pebble]

The UK economy seems far worse now than even in the 80s after the awful worst of the then oil crisis and all the other 70s stuff etc and people are more generally aware (or at least they can be if they're interested enough). Also to be fair The Big Short is far more precise, revealing and truthful about the scandalous financial behaviours than any other popular film on general release in the past.

The main point is that the idea that excessive investment in housing detracts from investment in real productive stuff (and is therefore of course a bad thing) isn't a new idea as propagated in that telegraph article nor is the idea mentioned in the telegraph about scientists and engineers etc eventually benefiting. So far despite all the decades things don't seem to have changed much in terms of sectorial favouritism - indeed the economy, economic imbalances and job type inequalities seem to be far worse.

It is a bit disappointing to realise that (to say the very very least) but that's the reality.

I reckon that the UK is SERIOUSLY F****D --- and 95% of the reason for this is -- Massive Fraud driven HPI.... We are witnessing one of the greatest financial bubble scandals in all history.... The bubble is SO big, you can't actually see it unless you go and look at it from space.

[Rave]

Alex Proud has been good for this sort of stuff for a while. It's enjoyable, but he's still a lefty statist at heart.

[spyguy]

The UK economy seems far worse now than even in the 80s after the awful worst of the then oil crisis and all the other 70s stuff etc and people are more generally aware (or at least they can be if they're interested enough). Also to be fair The Big Short is far more precise, revealing and truthful about the scandalous financial behaviours than any other popular film on general release in the past.

The main point is that the idea that excessive investment in housing detracts from investment in real productive stuff (and is therefore of course a bad thing) isn't a new idea as propagated in that telegraph article nor is the idea mentioned in the telegraph about scientists and engineers etc eventually benefiting. So far despite all the decades things don't seem to have changed much in terms of sectorial favouritism - indeed the economy, economic imbalances and job type inequalities seem to be far worse.

It is a bit disappointing to realise that (to say the very very least) but that's the reality.

Well its debt - the levels of debt have run far ahead of the UKs ability to pay for it.

In the late 80s boomers were in their 40s - 20 odd years before pulling down on unfunded pensions.

Now they are pulling down on those pensions.

[campervanman]

Try telling that to my Mrs who will not be drawing on her pension until 6 years later than the pre boomer generation did.

[TheCountOfNowhere]

Try telling that to my Mrs who will not be drawing on her pension until 6 years later than the pre boomer generation did.

Dont worry though, she'll live 5 years less.

Ever get the feeling you are being screwed ?

[campervanman]

We are all being screwed. Some of us understand that, others participate in an intergenerational blame game orchestrated by those who are screwing us.

[19 year mortgage 8itch]

Try telling that to my Mrs who will not be drawing on her pension until 6 years later than the pre boomer generation did.

Seeing as you'll have 2, my heart doesn't bleed for you.

[billybong]

Well its debt - the levels of debt have run far ahead of the UKs ability to pay for it.

In the late 80s boomers were in their 40s - 20 odd years before pulling down on unfunded pensions.

Now they are pulling down on those pensions.

Debt, a seriously unbalanced economy getting worse and government incompetence/self serving/deceit etc.

[campervanman]

Seeing as you'll have 2, my heart doesn't bleed for you.

I wouldn't expect you to but I would expect you to understand that the boomer generation face worse pension provision than the previous one.

[19 year mortgage 8itch]

I wouldn't expect you to but I would expect you to understand that the boomer generation face worse pension provision than the previous one.

That's exactly the same argument we use and you criticise us. And now you're using it? Well done

[spyguy]

I wouldn't expect you to but I would expect you to understand that the boomer generation face worse pension provision than the previous one.

Some do, a lot don't.

A 67 YO female headteacher/council-made-up-job has been gifted an unfunded lottery ticket.

Ditto a 55 YO copper or fireman.

Pension provision for someone 55 working in the private sector with a DC pension will be significantly less.

My mum, 72, has never worked in a job where she's paid tax. Maybe a few quid when she did some extra shifts.

She's probably 10 times more from her pension than she ever paid in tax.

[campervanman]

That's exactly the same argument we use and you criticise us. And now you're using it? Well done

What I criticise are some young people think that their problems will be solved by destroying pensions for all. Young people need to start focusing on the real causes of why things are as they are. Blaming older generations because they benefitted from wealth distribution that meant that there was more to go around is not the answer, what is needed is to start focusing on changing wealth distribution back to how it was. There are signs that some other younger people get it which is encouraging.

There is no inconsistency in my argument. I do not blame people older than me for having better pensions, I blame the change in how the cake is divided up since the 1980's. If more people did the same instead of blaming each other then maybe things can change.

Edited February 9, 2016 by campervanman

[Steppenpig]

they benefitted from wealth distribution that meant that there was more to go around

He's gone from "smarter than thou" to "holier than thou"

[Riedquat]

What I criticise are some young people think that their problems will be solved by destroying pensions for all. Young people need to start focusing on the real causes of why things are as they are. Blaming older generations because they benefitted from wealth distribution that meant that there was more to go around is not the answer, what is needed is to start focusing on changing wealth distribution back to how it was. There are signs that some other younger people get it which is encouraging.

There is no inconsistency in my argument. I do not blame people older than me for having better pensions, I blame the change in how the cake is divided up since the 1980's. If more people did the same instead of blaming each other then maybe things can change.

The people who get the blame are the ones who take out more than they put in.

[19 year mortgage 8itch]

What I criticise are some young people think that their problems will be solved by destroying pensions for all. Young people need to start focusing on the real causes of why things are as they are. Blaming older generations because they benefitted from wealth distribution that meant that there was more to go around is not the answer, what is needed is to start focusing on changing wealth distribution back to how it was. There are signs that some other younger people get it which is encouraging.

There is no inconsistency in my argument. I do not blame people older than me for having better pensions, I blame the change in how the cake is divided up since the 1980's. If more people did the same instead of blaming each other then maybe things can change.

As a generation, the young have no jobs, no education unless they take a mountain of debt, absolutely no security of tenure in where they live. And all you can think about it your pension and your wife's.

No, you don't get it.

[Automotive Engineer]

He's gone from "smarter than thou" to "holier than thou"

Pensions are a wealth distributing mechanism from the young to the old. This system requires an increasing population to maintain, the pension system in the 60's was a correct method in its day given the demographic landscape. Today that landscape has changed and as such so should pensions. Unfortunately, pensioners are a voting block.

Like Neptune eating his children, we are well and truly fckkd

[Amiinsane]

What I criticise are some young people think that their problems will be solved by destroying pensions for all. Young people need to start focusing on the real causes of why things are as they are. Blaming older generations because they benefitted from wealth distribution that meant that there was more to go around is not the answer, what is needed is to start focusing on changing wealth distribution back to how it was. There are signs that some other younger people get it which is encouraging.

There is no inconsistency in my argument. I do not blame people older than me for having better pensions, I blame the change in how the cake is divided up since the 1980's. If more people did the same instead of blaming each other then maybe things can change.

[Amiinsane]

Sorry. posted the quote without my response.

You can't tell young people not to be angry about the older generation having secure pensions, houses etc while telling them they need to start their lives with a huge millstone of debt around their neck. This isn't wealth distribution it's generational theft.

[Tresbon]

Sorry. posted the quote without my response.

You can't tell young people not to be angry about the older generation having secure pensions, houses etc while telling them they need to start their lives with a huge millstone of debt around their neck. This isn't wealth distribution it's generational theft.

Whilst also being told they are lazy, stupid and feckless.

[Automotive Engineer]

Sorry. posted the quote without my response.

You can't tell young people not to be angry about the older generation having secure pensions, houses etc while telling them they need to start their lives with a huge millstone of debt around their neck. This isn't wealth distribution it's generational theft.

Hello. Young man here.

I don't blame the elderly for setting up a pension system in the past which to us seems overly generous. It wasn't in it's day, it was sensible with a pyramid shaped population graph.

What I do PARTIALLY blame is the slef serving interest to MAINTAIN such a system when the demographics have changed.

A baby boom cannot be supported by a dwindling population (inverse pyramid). And immigration should NOT be a substitute for dwindling workforce (that brings a host of other problems).