Are The Shires Crashing ?

[Si1]

I am sure that is true. But Exeter is small enough that you only need a trickle of medical consultants, solicitors, dentists, professors, accountants (earning £80K+) and London sellers to keep the upper tranche of the property market ticking over.

Omg. You're serious. Lmao.

[Si1]

You can easily earn £80K+ easily and live in Exeter...you just have to commute up to the big city during the week and back on a friday.

Expensive but you definitely officially live in Exeter and not lodnon, even though you spend 5 days there as opposed to 2.

You can do that in Huddersfield too.

[GreenDevil]

And Cornwall. Only 6hrs each way.

[Conquistador]

You sound like my mum.

Solicitors earn fckall these. Ditto accountants.

And these will only move to somewhere which needs there skills i.e. large companies.

And again, Exeter is too small to attract much in the way of consultants and dentists.

On the whole, Professors earn a lot less than 80k.

In fact, bar consultants, all the above tend to average around 40-50k.

I was never saying that there are a substantial number of these people living in Exeter. Clearly there are not*. My proposition is only that the top few percentiles of a very skewed earnings distribution*, combined with incoming London equity, is sufficient to sustain the ticking over of high-end property (e.g., people snapping up St Leonards townhouses at asking prices > £500K).

Of course, these purchases are detached from the bulk of Exeter market activity, as they are from most (low) local wages. But that's another story...

*But they are not unheard of, e.g., Exeter Uni professorial salary scale is £65-106K. Not sure about higher echelons of Met Office.

[spyguy]

You can do that in Huddersfield too.

Id guess Huddersfield is closer too.

Fast train to York is just under 2H.

Exeter is about 4 to 5h.

[spyguy]

I was never saying that there are a substantial number of these people living in Exeter. Clearly there are not*. My proposition is only that the top few percentiles of a very skewed earnings distribution*, combined with incoming London equity, is sufficient to sustain the ticking over of high-end property (e.g., people snapping up St Leonards townhouses at asking prices > £500K).

Of course, these purchases are detached from the bulk of Exeter market activity, as they are from most (low) local wages. But that's another story...

*But they are not unheard of, e.g., Exeter Uni professorial salary scale is £65-106K. Not sure about higher echelons of Met Office.

I used to know Met workers when they operated from Bracknell.

They all jumped at the chance to dump Bracknell for Exeter. I would have too.

However, with the loss of the BBC contract, the Met is not looking greeat.

Professors/chairs are very much a dead man shoes job.

[Conquistador]

Id guess Huddersfield is closer too.

Fast train to York is just under 2H.

Exeter is about 4 to 5h.

Nah, Exeter is more like 3h to Paddington. Not that it's much fun.

[spyguy]

You can easily earn £80K+ easily and live in Exeter...you just have to commute up to the big city during the week and back on a friday.

Expensive but you definitely officially live in Exeter and not lodnon, even though you spend 5 days there as opposed to 2.

OK, lets MMR those extra costs.

Train tickets ~300/month.

Flat share in London - 600/month.

Thats ~ 1k post tax/1.6k pretax = ~20k of your earnings gone.

Knocking off 100k of your mortgage.

Mortgage down to sub-200k.

[Sancho Panza]

You sound like my mum.

Solicitors earn fckall these. Ditto accountants.

And these will only move to somewhere which needs there skills i.e. large companies.

And again, Exeter is too small to attract much in the way of consultants and dentists.

On the whole, Professors earn a lot less than 80k.

In fact, bar consultants, all the above tend to average around 40-50k.

My sister is a Fellow of the Royal College of something or other doing cosmetic dentistry and repairing the hatchet jobs done on dental tourists to places like Bulgaria and Czech Republic.She maintains she's made more through her house appreciating than she ever has in sorting people's teeth.

Solictors can't even sell practices on when they retire here in the Midlands these days.Well,they do sell I suppose,for the cost of 6 years public liability.

[TheCountOfNowhere]

Rebranded shires crashing twitter followes shot up 50 people in 1 and a bit days.

Could be onto something here

https://twitter.com/HousePriceMania

Plus the BrExit nonsense is a boon.

[spyguy]

My sister is a Fellow of the Royal College of something or other doing cosmetic dentistry and repairing the hatchet jobs done on dental tourists to places like Bulgaria and Czech Republic.She maintains she's made more through her house appreciating than she ever has in sorting people's teeth.

Solictors can't even sell practices on when they retire here in the Midlands these days.Well,they do sell I suppose,for the cost of 6 years public liability.

My point, and why I mentioned the poster sounded like my Mum, is that an areas average wage is easy to find and pretty much follws the standard distribution.

In my Mums case, the average wage is ~21K.

You will not find many people earning double that wage. And, if you do, they'll only get a mortgage of ~120K, which makes her rtying to sell her house for 300K pretty ambitious. Shes not! But if she was, it'll sit on the shelf for years, like the other 200k+ houses.

Not sure about the distribution of savings. Id guess they are skewed at the top and bottom.

But most people I know would struggle to get their hands on 5K cash.

[thewig]

Rebranded shires crashing twitter followes shot up 50 people in 1 and a bit days.

Could be onto something here

https://twitter.com/HousePriceMania

Plus the BrExit nonsense is a boon.

666 followers now...

for the love of ALLAH, can someone from here with a twitter account click follow!!!

[Sancho Panza]

My point, and why I mentioned the poster sounded like my Mum, is that an areas average wage is easy to find and pretty much follws the standard distribution.

In my Mums case, the average wage is ~21K.

You will not find many people earning double that wage. And, if you do, they'll only get a mortgage of ~120K, which makes her rtying to sell her house for 300K pretty ambitious. Shes not! But if she was, it'll sit on the shelf for years, like the other 200k+ houses.

Not sure about the distribution of savings. Id guess they are skewed at the top and bottom.

But most people I know would struggle to get their hands on 5K cash.

I agree,when the market needs buyers financing off local salaries/wages,it's going to be in deep trouble.

I think your estimate of £5k is beyond the reach of most people with young kids and rent to pay.Average savings are likely skewed toward upper age group deciles.

Edited April 19, 2016 by Sancho Panza

[thewig]

666 followers now...

for the love of ALLAH, can someone from here with a twitter account click follow!!!

Thanks to number 667... everyone can RELAX

[North London Rent Girl]

OK, statistics not a strong point - I was comparing ALL houses on houseprices.io of any number of beds with 4+ bed houses on Rightmove.

If I include all houses on Rightmove in my search area then 5.9% are priced over £1million.

So 1 in 3 actually sell and 2 in 3 don't sell.

I've no idea to whom!

I'll go quietly...

Over a million is still very high for the area I'm keeping an eye on - bits of e. devon, but there are lots and lots of places in the 500-1m range. They're not what I'm looking at but it has become routine to hear about the latest development near me mum when I'm down there. Another small bungalow with a large garden being knocked down to make way for 4 mcmansions with tiny gardens and put on the market for 700-800 grand. I know OF one person who's bought one (someone my cousin knows, her dad helped her - what?!!) but don't know anyone who could afford one, including people who already own nice properties down there. It just doesn't hang together.

[North London Rent Girl]

Houses selling quickly in prime Exeter (St Leonards) where demand is mainly from incoming Londoners and elite professions (£500,000+ bracket). City has experienced price rises of about 4-5% per year since 2013. Most houses in the uppermost quintile of the distribution (£400,000+) seem to be selling close to asking price within a few weeks. Market not on fire, it's rising slowly, but no sign of a slump yet.

'Prime Exeter', a-hah hah. No, ok, I hear you, St Leonards is nice, bits of Pennsylvania, too - it is really quite a nice city. There's definitely a posh element down there but there's not many of them and they're not going to be buying a place in Cranbrook or that new development out towards Topsham or that one - is it near Pinhoe? These are big developments. How big is Cranbrook - 11,000, right? The properly wealthy float about in a little world of their own but they don't account for much of the market.

[North London Rent Girl]

You can easily earn £80K+ easily and live in Exeter...you just have to commute up to the big city during the week and back on a friday.

Expensive but you definitely officially live in Exeter and not lodnon, even though you spend 5 days there as opposed to 2.

Exactly! Except that people tend not to want to spend their weekends in Exeter itself, they want to spend them in a lovely place in the middle of nowhere - that's the pull down there for that contingent. They're not interested in what is now the anytown of central Exeter, they're not wowed by a Carluccio's, they want a view over a field with no people in it. Sort of makes them almost human.

[Tresbon]

666 followers now...

for the love of ALLAH, can someone from here with a twitter account click follow!!!

Done!

[shindigger]

.

Edited April 20, 2016 by shindigger

[Guest]

In my search area, the stock of houses under £300k (various filters applied e.g. non new build. non retirement, not shared ownership, non STC)...

...has increased from 95 in March to 117 today. Percentage of houses reduced has gone from 19% to 33%

Several with £10k off after a week or two on market. These can only be committed sellers having to drop prices during the best time of the year to sell property.

[TheCountOfNowhere]

In my search area, the stock of houses under £300k (various filters applied e.g. non new build. non retirement, not shared ownership, non STC)...

...has increased from 95 in March to 117 today. Percentage of houses reduced has gone from 19% to 33%

Several with £10k off after a week or two on market. These can only be committed sellers having to drop prices during the best time of the year to sell property.

Not really been following my old search areas such. Have no intention of buying a house in the UK now. Its just gotten insane.

[Guest]

Not really been following my old search areas such. Have no intention of buying a house in the UK now. Its just gotten insane.

My family situation and lack of balls means I will only buy in UK... So I'm closely following my search area so I can pounce on a realistic and desperate seller.

[Killer Bunny]

Desperation / capitulation at end of crash not at start

[TheCountOfNowhere]

Desperation / capitulation at end of crash not at start

Sincew 2008 it's been time for

Soon it will be time for

[Si1]

Desperation / capitulation at end of crash not at start

Precisely