The Collapse Of The Russian Bear Thread

[jetcat]

Russia has no intention of invading Ukraine proper. The East is now a separate, defined area. They will merely supply the Donbass with whatever is required to protect themselves from the Kiev nazis.

With intentions to invade or without, there have been plenty of proofs of Russian direct involvement, including aforementioned T-72B3, BTR-82A, MTLBs modified by Muromteplovoz (just 15 ever built!) and various AT weapons unique to Russia and manufactured in 2013-14. How many of the tanks, heavy weapons and artillery claimed by rebels to have been captured from Ukrainian army but in fact came from Russia's identical stock we'll never know. Ukrainians keep crying wolf but are occasionally right judging by that equipment, captured "lost" Russian soldiers and columns of Russian military filmed in Donetsk and Luhansk regions. There may not have been thousands, but a few hundreds just seen on the videos, who intervened with superior equipment and training to break the back of Ukrainian offensive. Furthermore, their presence was confirmed by Strelkov and various DNR and LNR field commanders, and even the Russian defense minister who claimed they were volunteers who go there in their spare time (as if a serving officer or soldier can go anywhere without their commanders' approval).

[Errol]

Yes, as my post said, they will send whatever is required to maintain the Donbass as a separate, protected area - short of actual, outright invasion (this will only come if the crazy people in Kiev do something very stupid).

Edited November 24, 2014 by Errol

[olde guto]

But Ukraine is not Georgia. Ukraine has 45 millions of population. Last year 10% wanted to joined NATO. Now 60%. Russians kill about 5 Ukrainian soldiers every day. Every single kill makes anti Russian resistance more and more popular.

Putler does not want to go to Kiev as:

- he would be there already

- he does not have spare money for long campaign; plus Russian economy is tanking

- he does not have spare money to subsidise even Eastern Ukraine; Crimea required already to spend national Russian pension fund on it

- he can not afford to kill more Russian conscripts (current estimated losses between 500 to 2000)

- he can not keep it secreet from Russian public, who is 60% against

- Ukraine army with volunteers is dug in. He we would need now 3x more troops to attack

- Russian air supremacy would be tricky to achieve with West technology

So if Putler wants to get in he will get his own Stalingrad/Afghanistan/Vietnam ... Russian soldier is tough, but Ukrainian as well. There is nothing like a free lunch ...

Russia doesn't really want to invade because it knows it'll end-up fighting irregular forces or insurgents or whatever you want to call them (like the Ukrainians are having to deal with in the eastern provinces). They might be many things but they aren't totally stupid, they've seen the damage that can be done to a world superpower by very angry locals in Afghanistan (first hand in the 80's and second hand now). They also have experience of the Chechen war, it's fairly reasonable to suggest that the only reason they have peace in Chechnya is because they bought-off the rebel leaders (who have suddenly become all pro-Russian). Even Russia's well oiled propaganda machine would struggle to contain news about deaths of Russian soldiers if they ever invaded.

I wonder how the estimated loss in Russian import duties caused by a EU-Ukraine trade deal compares to their losses due to sanctions and lower fuel prices?

Edited November 24, 2014 by olde guto

[interestrateripoff]

Oil prices dive after OPEC decides against output cut

- Brent crude oil plunged as much as $6.50 a barrel on Thursday, and U.S. crude fell by nearly as much, posting the steepest one-day falls since 2011, after OPEC decided against cutting output despite a huge oversupply in world markets.

Saudi attacking Putin?

[Damik]

Oil prices dive after OPEC decides against output cut

- Brent crude oil plunged as much as $6.50 a barrel on Thursday, and U.S. crude fell by nearly as much, posting the steepest one-day falls since 2011, after OPEC decided against cutting output despite a huge oversupply in world markets.

Saudi attacking Putin?

what a horror .. cheaper fuel for all of us ... just Putler is not able to finance his little wars here and there ...

Edited November 27, 2014 by Damik

[R K]

World First ‏@World_First 7m7 minutes ago

Rouble getting beaten like it owes money. Down 7.30% vs USD on the session

[thecrashingisles]

World First ‏@World_First 7m7 minutes ago

Rouble getting beaten like it owes money. Down 7.30% vs USD on the session

Don't worry, Vlad Wilson says the rouble in your pocket is not being devalued.

[Errol]

Russian President Vladimir Putin expects the oil market to find its balance by the middle of next year. “I am confident that in the first quarter, in the middle of next year the [oil] market will find a balance,” Putin said at a meeting with the chief executive officer of France’s Total, Reuters said. The president said he had expected oil prices to fall after OPEC’s meeting. Moscow had not insisted on any specific action to stabilize them, Putin added.

http://rt.com/business/

[R K]

Don't worry, Vlad Wilson says the rouble in your pocket is not being devalued.

Image in my head now of Vlad puffing on his pipe. Nice.

[Saving For a Space Ship]

Putin Says Russia Will Scrap South Stream Pipeline

http://www.rt.com/business/210483-putin-russia-gas-turkey/

http://www.abcnews.go.com/Politics/wireStory/putin-russia-scrap-south-stream-pipeline-27282897

[Damik]

Russian President Vladimir Putin expects the oil market to find its balance by the middle of next year. “I am confident that in the first quarter, in the middle of next year the [oil] market will find a balance,” Putin said at a meeting with the chief executive officer of France’s Total, Reuters said. The president said he had expected oil prices to fall after OPEC’s meeting. Moscow had not insisted on any specific action to stabilize them, Putin added.

http://rt.com/business/

Perhaps Putler should open a hedge fund. With his visions of future he can not go really wrong ... It would also help to predict his next target of agression - based on what stock his fund is shorting ... perhaps Baltics ???

http://in.reuters.com/article/2014/12/01/russia-nato-baltic-idINKCN0JF2V520141201

Russia says NATO destabilises Baltics, plans war games

[interestrateripoff]

Russia warns of recession in 2015

• Rouble in biggest fall since 1998
• Oil prices plunge after Opec meeting
• Study reveals Russia's near misses in Europe

The Russian government warns the economy will fall into recession next year as Western sanctions over Ukraine and falling oil prices begin to bite.

Putin appears to be in a catch 22 now if he turns the gas off as he needs the money.

[200p]

Will it be the end of the Rouble? What position is George Soros taking (remember he made a billion breaking the Bank of England)

---

"You can see it in the billions that they have had to spend defending a rouble that continues to fall. You see it in the high rates of inflation inside the country."

2nd Dec 2014

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/12/02/us-ukraine-crisis-usa-idUSKCN0JG11R20141202

I remember not so long ago, when the £ was under attack, and George Soros might have wanted history to repeat, that the £ wouldn't be defended, and speculators went somewhere else after that.

Ah source:

Treasury will not step in to prop up pound

15 Dec 2008

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2008/dec/15/treasury-pound-exchange-currency-economic

Edited December 2, 2014 by 200p

[R K]

Well, the gold bugs promised hyperinflation. They just picked the wrong currency.

Where's the rockets?!

[200p]

Ha I think everyone talks there own book (in the shorter term), peak oil, etc. Although gold is doing better if you actually live in Russia and hold roubles, as gold is priced in dollars.

[R K]

Ha I think everyone talks there own book (in the shorter term), peak oil, etc. Although gold is doing better if you actually live in Russia and hold roubles, as gold is priced in dollars.

Soyuz rockets might be appropriate or perhaps a BUK

[thecrashingisles]

Soyuz rockets might be appropriate or perhaps a BUK

Never let is be said that Putin is a man who passes the BUK.

[Gigantic Purple Slug]

Rouble taking a big dive. Is this the speculators taking the CB to the cleaners ?

[interestrateripoff]

• 

  Russian Services Industry Slumps to Lowest Since May 2009

  Russia’s services activity slumped to its lowest in five-and-a-half years as sanctions over Ukraine compounded weak demand, a falling ruble and political uncertainty to undermine private companies.

[Damik]

Putler's regime getting more pathetic every day:

http://www.themoscowtimes.com/business/article/putin-signs-russian-budget-for-next-year-based-on-100-oil-price/512521.html

Putin Signs Russian Budget For Next Year Based on $100 Oil Price

http://www.themoscowtimes.com/news/article/moscow-police-detain-25-people-at-seminar-on-maidan-style-political-protests/512520.html

Moscow Police Detain 25 People at Seminar on Maidan-Style Political Protests

http://www.themoscowtimes.com/business/article/russia-wants-to-boost-syrian-fruit-and-vegetables-imports/512517.html

Russia Wants to Boost Syrian Fruit and Vegetables Imports

[interestrateripoff]

With Russia on Brink of Recession, Putin Faces ‘New Reality’

NY Times take.

[olde guto]

Russia warns of recession in 2015

• Rouble in biggest fall since 1998
• Oil prices plunge after Opec meeting
• Study reveals Russia's near misses in Europe

The Russian government warns the economy will fall into recession next year as Western sanctions over Ukraine and falling oil prices begin to bite.

Putin appears to be in a catch 22 now if he turns the gas off as he needs the money.

Yep, makes you actually wonder if some leaders in "the west" might actually know what they are doing.

Putin made the mistake of using gas as weapon against not only Ukraine but Belarus as well when they dared displease him. This sort of thing encourages sensible countries to either build more storage capacity and/or those countries lucky enough to have a coast line can make plans to build LNG terminals supplied by Arabs or Americans (then there is shale gas extraction in Europe). Hoisted with his own petard? I wonder if he's ever considered why there hasn't been a repeat of the 1973 Arab oil crisis?

Interestingly if Russia turned the taps off for 3 months during Nov-Jan most of Europe would get by unaffected

https://www.infraday.tu-berlin.de/fileadmin/fg280/veranstaltungen/infraday/Infraday_2014/Presentations/Hecking_Infraday_2014.pdf

If it's a mild winter then life is made even harder for him as gas consumption will be lower than normal. If the west (and China for that matter) really wanted to create trouble for Putin they'd try and set Asian Russia (where all the gas is) against European Russia (where all the money goes).

[macbeth79]

' What if " Russia refuses to pay her debts to the west the communists did that trick before it might give them 20 years of grace.

[Damik]

Oil, the Ruble and Putin Are All Headed for 63

[Guest Jemmy Button]

Oil, the Ruble and Putin Are All Headed for 63

Damik, why do you hate the Russian people so much? Why do you want to see the Russian people swept away? What has happened to you to fuel this hatred?