The Bust For Osborne's Deliberate Boom

[Bland Unsight]

Just a quick poll. Lots of signs in the wind that the machinery put in place to produce the boom is being withdrawn and lots of speculation by posters as towhether or not Osborne has done enough to give the boom the juice it needs to reach the 2015 General Election. (Consider the Donkey Kong option a way of spoiling your ballot paper...) Poll is not public.

[gf3]

Just a quick poll. Lots of signs in the wind that the machinery put in place to produce the boom is being withdrawn and lots of speculation by posters as towhether or not Osborne has done enough to give the boom the juice it needs to reach the 2015 General Election. (Consider the Donkey Kong option a way of spoiling your ballot paper...) Poll is not public.

I though house prices were 10% over value when I bought my house in 2001. So I have given up on thinking there will be a crash. However London and the SE maybe differt.

[macbeth79]

I think it was intended after the election, but it has peaked too soon, so i think before the next election unless they can get more money to be spent on the houses in london.

[Gigantic Purple Slug]

Just a quick poll. Lots of signs in the wind that the machinery put in place to produce the boom is being withdrawn and lots of speculation by posters as towhether or not Osborne has done enough to give the boom the juice it needs to reach the 2015 General Election. (Consider the Donkey Kong option a way of spoiling your ballot paper...) Poll is not public.

Even if it does not have enough gas to go to the next election, the likelyhood is that they will just tweak something else to make it reach. There is little downside to doing so.

That said, I think after the next election could be the crunch time.

Although the Tories record at the moment appears unremarkable, they have managed a fine balancing act when in general there has been little room for manoevre.

They have managed to reduce spending without kicking off any major public sector aggro. They have averted market attention by contracting spending better than major competitive economies such as France.

Now they are hoping that growth will make up the spending gap that comes as a consequence of not being able to print more money. This growth will almost certainly come as a result of the US economic increase, and may be further fueled by a fracking boom over here.

Major potential downsides I see are the further contraction of spending that needs to come in after 2015 to improve the budget position. This is going to take a big chunk out of the growth that will come. As will the new mortgage rules and things like FLS reduction, but as these are locally determined they are likely to be fudged.

Japan and China also pose significant risks, but if these go down it will be politically defendable, in the respect that "it happened somewhere else" and if Japan and China do go down the whole world will be screwed anyway. The Tories can't control what goes on over there, so there is no real point making policy to deal with it.

I think the Scotland independence vote will be overshadowed by the UK independence vote from Europe that Cameron will have to promise at the next election in order to pacify the far right. I think that any party that promises the vote will be elected, and that the result of leaving Europe, well that is a big big question mark over what will happen.

[long time lurking]

All fine and dandy until the FFL cash has run out most of the banks stocked up big time before the plug was pulled, although there seems to be an ever decreasing number of willing/eligible borrowers

The trouble will start when this money runs out providing theres no other scheme ushered in to save the day ....heres for hoping on that one

[okaycuckoo]

They have diverted market attention by contracting spending better than major competitive economies such as France.

Now they are hoping that growth will make up the spending gap that comes as a consequence of not being able to print more money. This growth will almost certainly come as a result of the US economic increase, and may be further fueled by a fracking boom over here

But French growth improved more quickly than the UK.

I expect the US will be hitting recession just about later this year.

And I really don't expect a fracking boom in the UK - by the time environmental concerns are railroaded, it will be proven to be an economic bust.

Sad thing is the party with the most reasonable and interesting policies - LibDem as expressed by Vince Cable - is about to get wiped out.

[Gigantic Purple Slug]

But French growth improved more quickly than the UK.

I expect the US will be hitting recession just about later this year.

And I really don't expect a fracking boom in the UK - by the time environmental concerns are railroaded, it will be proven to be an economic bust.

Sad thing is the party with the most reasonable and interesting policies - LibDem as expressed by Vince Cable - is about to get wiped out.

How about french spending ?

[renting til I die]

I voted for Donkey Kong because it really was a great game and I'm so bored of thinking about house prices!

I truth, I have no idea. Could be a year, could be 10 years. All I know is the more leverage people take on and the more people get into BTL. the worst the eventual crash will be and the more people will get hurt.

[Oh Well :(]

They need to keep up the open doors policy to let a few million more immigrants in. This will keep the housing shortage going and hence fuel the boom.

The changes to the pensions in 2015 allowing the entire pension to be cashed in are also designed to increase the money supply. The plan is pensioners will use the lump sums to help their children buy a shoe box. The longer it goes on the worse it will be. At some point there will be massive taxes on property as the money runs out. Then the snake really will be eating its tail and the collapse will be quicker and harder than any want or wish for.

[okaycuckoo]

How about french spending ?

I presume that led to french growth. [edit: not helpful - I should have added that growth of private debt is the worrying thing for me because it just piles up inflexible costs for the people.]

Anyway - I want to see what UKIP has to say about Le Pen's views on the bancor:

During a press conference in June 2011, she advocated to reintroduce the Havana Charter and implement an "International Trade Organization" (in place of World Trade Organization), in order to reorganize the world trade exchanges.^[124] Signed by 53 countries and rejected by the US in 1951, this Charter was a trade agreement that would have established an international currency known as the bancor.^[125] She claimed that the "Havana Charters's proposals perfectly fit into her economic philosophy"^[124] and that "its first article conciliates international trade and employment".^[126]

Edited May 5, 2014 by okaycuckoo

[macbeth79]

They need to keep up the open doors policy to let a few million more immigrants in. This will keep the housing shortage going and hence fuel the boom.

UKRAINE

[Gigantic Purple Slug]

All fine and dandy until the FFL cash has run out most of the banks stocked up big time before the plug was pulled, although there seems to be an ever decreasing number of willing/eligible borrowers

The trouble will start when this money runs out providing theres no other scheme ushered in to save the day ....heres for hoping on that one

I think your hopes are hopeless.

The Tories have survived the term that everyone said was the term that no one wanted to win, that would make them unelectable for a generation.

if you think they aren't going to burn another 20 billion or so to keep this all going until after May 2015 then you're living in a dreamworld.

[Bland Unsight]

I think your hopes are hopeless.

The Tories have survived the term that everyone said was the term that no one wanted to win, that would make them unelectable for a generation.

if you think they aren't going to burn another 20 billion or so to keep this all going until after May 2015 then you're living in a dreamworld.

I'm inclined to agree. I'd like to think that everything is being lined up for a decent crash in late 2015/early 2016 - hence whoever is in power will have plenty of time for the blood letting and bad headlines to be forgotten and replaced with positive news stories about GDP growth fuelled by accelerating house building and people spending money on tat rather than elevated rents and mortgage interest before the next election comes around. I'm finally coming to terms with the fact that I'm a naive optimist, .

[long time lurking]

I think your hopes are hopeless.

The Tories have survived the term that everyone said was the term that no one wanted to win, that would make them unelectable for a generation.

if you think they aren't going to burn another 20 billion or so to keep this all going until after May 2015 then you're living in a dreamworld.

I have no doubt they will if needed but the point was i doubt it will be needed as the banks are stuffed to the gills with FFL cash and the willingness to borrow is falling ,take a horse to water and all that ,20 billion or 100 billion it`s irrelevant if nobody wants it ....Gidiot shot his load to early and is now scrambling about looking for the packet of blue pills ....whether they work or not is any ones guess but one things for sure he will eat the lot before calling it a day

Not hoping for owt BTW

[alexw]

Even if it does not have enough gas to go to the next election, the likelyhood is that they will just tweak something else to make it reach. There is little downside to doing so.

That said, I think after the next election could be the crunch time.

Although the Tories record at the moment appears unremarkable, they have managed a fine balancing act when in general there has been little room for manoevre.

They have managed to reduce spending without kicking off any major public sector aggro. They have averted market attention by contracting spending better than major competitive economies such as France.

Now they are hoping that growth will make up the spending gap that comes as a consequence of not being able to print more money. This growth will almost certainly come as a result of the US economic increase, and may be further fueled by a fracking boom over here.

Major potential downsides I see are the further contraction of spending that needs to come in after 2015 to improve the budget position. This is going to take a big chunk out of the growth that will come. As will the new mortgage rules and things like FLS reduction, but as these are locally determined they are likely to be fudged.

Japan and China also pose significant risks, but if these go down it will be politically defendable, in the respect that "it happened somewhere else" and if Japan and China do go down the whole world will be screwed anyway. The Tories can't control what goes on over there, so there is no real point making policy to deal with it.

I think the Scotland independence vote will be overshadowed by the UK independence vote from Europe that Cameron will have to promise at the next election in order to pacify the far right. I think that any party that promises the vote will be elected, and that the result of leaving Europe, well that is a big big question mark over what will happen.

What planet are you posting from my I ask? Also what interstellar communications medium do you use? Because you certainly cannot be talking about this planet, and the UK and the tory party therein. But I do have to say it's a mighty coincidence that your home planet has a nation with a political party that has the same name as ours. My what I coincidence!

Edited May 5, 2014 by alexw

[zugzwang]

I think your hopes are hopeless.

The Tories have survived the term that everyone said was the term that no one wanted to win, that would make them unelectable for a generation.

if you think they aren't going to burn another 20 billion or so to keep this all going until after May 2015 then you're living in a dreamworld.

Agreed, Osborne can always find a few billion on a one-off basis through accounting trickery or by flogging off something to the Qataris. OTH a sharp contraction in the world economy might still undermine his prospects of winning the GE. Whatever the result the present HPI subsidies don't make much sense after May, 2015 to any party, so 12 months after the GE is my guess.

[Wurzel Of Highbridge]

I think the government realise how much people hate housing inflation these days, so they are now reigning in the inflation.

[Eddie_George]

I'm inclined to agree. I'd like to think that everything is being lined up for a decent crash in late 2015/early 2016 - hence whoever is in power will have plenty of time for the blood letting and bad headlines to be forgotten and replaced with positive news stories about GDP growth fuelled by accelerating house building and people spending money on tat rather than elevated rents and mortgage interest before the next election comes around. I'm finally coming to terms with the fact that I'm a naive optimist, .

Poor old Ed Miliband. He's gonna be the one left holding the turd that is the UK economy when the music stops.

[porca misèria]

A proper bust should feature someone Greek?

[edit - the previous bust was a too-obvious fake]

Edited May 5, 2014 by porca misèria

[Corruption]

I opted for "i dont know" as the fact this site is still running 10 years or more down the line shows we really don't know.

But i also think that Gidiot and the Tory party dont have the intelligence to time a bubble for the May 2015 election.

Edited May 5, 2014 by Corruption

[cybernoid]

If they can keep it going until the election what happens next depends on the election result I suppose.

If the conservatives won't do it on purpose labour will have to by mistake.

[Gigantic Purple Slug]

I opted for "i dont know" as the fact this site is still running 10 years or more down the line shows we really don't know.

But i also think that Gidiot and the Tory party dont have the intelligence to time a bubble for the May 2015 election.

Funny thing is I remember having exactly the same discussion on this site back before the last election.

The question then was could Gordon keep the plates spinning until May 2010 and what an unlucky guy Cameron was to inherit the scorched earth.

[Bland Unsight]

Funny thing is I remember having exactly the same discussion on this site back before the last election.

The question then was could Gordon keep the plates spinning until May 2010 and what an unlucky guy Cameron was to inherit the scorched earth.

What a depressing thought! But could there really be anything left for the government to throw at the problem as potent as the combined effect of dropping the policy rate to 0.5%, £375bn of QE, FLS and HTB? They are going to have to start abducting people and taking them to detention centres staffed by mortgage brokers and estate agents if they want to up the ante from here...

I'm going to the pub to drown my sorrows. I'll check in on this thread later. Glad to see that "Donkey Kong" is doing better presently than "Don't know"

Edited May 5, 2014 by ChairmanOfTheBored

[porca misèria]

Funny thing is I remember having exactly the same discussion on this site back before the last election.

Zigackly.

I thought they'd let a regular HPC happen after the 2005 election. Then Gordon injected a big dose of Ballsian stimulus and lined us up for the Big Bust.

Well, I guess he promised "no return to Tory boom and bust", so an ordinary recession and regular recovery would've been a betrayal. A crisis on this scale took it right out of the realms of tory boom and bust as we knew it back then.

[Corruption]

Funny thing is I remember having exactly the same discussion on this site back before the last election.

The question then was could Gordon keep the plates spinning until May 2010 and what an unlucky guy Cameron was to inherit the scorched earth.

In 2010 Cameron could have let it all crash and blamed Brown, Blair, Balls and Milliband showing them as the incompetents they are ... and he'd have had his property market price rise by 2015 with just a little manipulation.

Instead he's hidden Labours incompetency and theyll be able to blame him in 2015 should they let market forces take over.