Uk Economy Will Take Years To Recover Says Boe's Dale

[Hectors House]

The UK's economic recovery will take a "number of years" the Bank of England's chief economist Spencer Dale has said.

Speaking to the BBC, Mr Dale added that interest rates will remain low for what he termed a "sustained period".

"We had a very deep recession, we have a number of years to go" he added, though he said that the economy is moving in the right direction.

Mr Dale also said that while a close eye is being kept on house prices, he doesn't see a housing market bubble.

He said: "We know that the housing market can quickly go from normal levels to overheating," but that the UK is "not there now".

Spencer Dale sits on the BoE's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC), which sets interest rates.

On Wednesday, minutes from the MPC's November meeting showed the nine members all voted to leave interest rates at their current 0.5%.

The Bank's plans for future interest rate rises have been closely watched since August when the governor, Mark Carney, said that he would not consider a rate rise until unemployment fell to 7%.

However, unemployment, the Bank said on Wednesday, has fallen faster than predicted, and the 7% level is not to be regarded as an automatic trigger for a rate hike.

Though Mr Dale warned that the recovery is not in its final stages, he stressed that things are improving.

This echoes comments from Wednesday's MPC minutes that the UK, in the Bank's view, is in a "sustained recovery" and does not face major inflation risks.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-25044115

[The Knimbies who say No]

The UK's economic recovery will take a "number of years" the Bank of England's chief economist Spencer Dale has said.

Speaking to the BBC, Mr Dale added that interest rates will remain low for what he termed a "sustained period".

"We had a very deep recession, we have a number of years to go" he added, though he said that the economy is moving in the right direction.

Mr Dale also said that while a close eye is being kept on house prices, he doesn't see a housing market bubble.

He said: "We know that the housing market can quickly go from normal levels to overheating," but that the UK is "not there now".

Spencer Dale sits on the BoE's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC), which sets interest rates.

On Wednesday, minutes from the MPC's November meeting showed the nine members all voted to leave interest rates at their current 0.5%.

The Bank's plans for future interest rate rises have been closely watched since August when the governor, Mark Carney, said that he would not consider a rate rise until unemployment fell to 7%.

However, unemployment, the Bank said on Wednesday, has fallen faster than predicted, and the 7% level is not to be regarded as an automatic trigger for a rate hike.

Though Mr Dale warned that the recovery is not in its final stages, he stressed that things are improving.

This echoes comments from Wednesday's MPC minutes that the UK, in the Bank's view, is in a "sustained recovery" and does not face major inflation risks.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-25044115

So the forward guidance is that rates will not rise, preferably ever.

So who wants Sterling?

[Ash4781]

It's been 6 years already!

[Hectors House]

It's been 6 years already!

The 30 year depression?

[cool_hand]

Mr Dale also said that while a close eye is being kept on house prices, he doesn't see a housing market bubble.

He said: "We know that the housing market can quickly go from normal levels to overheating," but that the UK is "not there now".

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-25044115

What planet is this guy living on? The last time I looked London was a part of the UK.

[Monkey]

The 30 year depression?

Going Japaneese

Edited November 21, 2013 by Monkey

[TheCountOfNowhere]

The UK's economic recovery will take a "number of years" the Bank of England's chief economist Spencer Dale has said.

Speaking to the BBC, Mr Dale added that interest rates will remain low for what he termed a "sustained period".

"We had a very deep recession, we have a number of years to go" he added, though he said that the economy is moving in the right direction.

Mr Dale also said that while a close eye is being kept on house prices, he doesn't see a housing market bubble.

He said: "We know that the housing market can quickly go from normal levels to overheating," but that the UK is "not there now".

Spencer Dale sits on the BoE's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC), which sets interest rates.

On Wednesday, minutes from the MPC's November meeting showed the nine members all voted to leave interest rates at their current 0.5%.

The Bank's plans for future interest rate rises have been closely watched since August when the governor, Mark Carney, said that he would not consider a rate rise until unemployment fell to 7%.

However, unemployment, the Bank said on Wednesday, has fallen faster than predicted, and the 7% level is not to be regarded as an automatic trigger for a rate hike.

Though Mr Dale warned that the recovery is not in its final stages, he stressed that things are improving.

This echoes comments from Wednesday's MPC minutes that the UK, in the Bank's view, is in a "sustained recovery" and does not face major inflation risks.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-25044115

These people are lying to us in my opinion. I dont believe they dont know exactly what they are doing and what is happening. In the housing market. . they seemed to have positioned themselves to be able to hold a whole government and country to ransom. something has to got to change. We even had the main man on tv telling savers their policy was for their benefit, they must think we are stupid.

Edited November 21, 2013 by TheCountOfNowhere

[The Masked Tulip]

IRs not to rise for years, going Japanese, etc. The shock that HPCers need will come from outside the UK and not from within.

Our problem is that we have BOE/Govt induced HPI again.

[Monkey]

IRs not to rise for years, going Japanese, etc. The shock that HPCers need will come from outside the UK and not from within.

Quite, there is so many potential sh1t storms ahead, its hard to guess which one. I cant beleive we havnt gone the way of Ireland Greece or even iceland yet, truely amazed they managed to keep proping up the economy/property market for so long

[wonderpup]

He said: "We know that the housing market can quickly go from normal levels to overheating," but that the UK is "not there now".

Like they knew last time? They know jack sh*t- they just cross their fingers and hope for the best.

Why are we still listening to people who failed to see the biggest credit bubble in nearly a century until it burst right in front of them?

[R K]

These people are lying to us in my opinion. I dont believe they dont know exactly what they are doing and what is happening. In the housing market. . they seemed to have positioned themselves to be able to hold a whole government and country to ransom. something has to got to change. We even had the main man on tv telling savers their policy was for their benefit, they must think we are stupid.

That's the problem with a currency zone.

Just 'cause Arabs, Russians and Chinese billionaires want to buy up Kensington and Chelsea doesn't mean ZIRP is wrong for the 60m people who don't live/work in the City.

They won't bother until the terraces in Newcastle are rising at 30% p.a.

[The Masked Tulip]

They won't bother until the terraces in Newcastle are rising at 30% p.a.

They are in Swansea but they think it is a good thing.

[TheCountOfNowhere]

IRs not to rise for years, going Japanese, etc. The shock that HPCers need will come from outside the UK and not from within.

Our problem is that we have BOE/Govt induced HPI again.

Except we dont. Look at the land registry, there is no real increase despite all udir scheming. The country is In a mess. take out the London bubble and prices are down when the London bubble collapses next week the party is over

[zugzwang]

Except we dont. Look at the land registry, there is no real increase despite all udir scheming. The country is In a mess. take out the London bubble and prices are down when the London bubble collapses next week the party is over

^

this.

It's amazing to me, such is the strength of the Force, that even hardened HPCers are being mind-******ed into believing Osborne and Carney's spin!

So Help to Buy has put a couple of billion into the market since April? Big deal. Transactions are still way down. Builders are bringing forward their construction plans? Make the most of it lads, the credit impulse from HTB won't last long, and thanks for the new stock. Capital outflows are pouring out of China? No, they've been pouring into China all year. American banksters using their QE winnings to run up prices in the capital? No doubt, they've done the same in US metro areas. But US markets are falling again already because demand is entirely speculative and there are no genuine buyers at bubble prices.The UK economy still needs an additional £100+bn pumped into it every year to generate a miserable sodding 1.5% GDP growth. And even after a trillion pounds of govt borrowing the UK economy is still smaller than it was in 2008.

Get real!

[The Masked Tulip]

GMO Quarterly Letter- Ignoble Prizes and Appointments, Jeremy Grantham, November 2013

Some of Yellen’s supporters, rather desperately I think, claim that she warned of an impending

housing bust, yet she has quotes out there, so like Bernanke’s that I forget which quote is which, to the effect that

housing merely reflected a strong economy.

She also sounded like early Greenspan in suggesting that bubbles don’t

exist, and even if they did, it would not be the Fed’s business to intervene, and even if it were, there would be nothing

they could do, and even if there were, the guaranteed pain of intervention would not be worth the possible benefits.

(The Canadian running the Bank of England, Mr. Carney, claims to know better: that housing bubbles do indeed exist

and are worth keeping an eye on. He’ll need some luck with the level of U.K. housing prices today – even as the

U.K. government encourages more leveraged mortgages. Do they never learn? Guaranteeing new mortgages over

5% will serve to further push the prices up so that for any new buyers, houses will be affordable only at low mortgage

rates.

But England has floating mortgage rates for heaven’s sake! And one day, dear home buyer, mortgage rates will

become more normal, possibly even nasty – it has happened – and you will simply not be able to afford the payments.

What a bad idea this is.)

[billybong]

Well someone is lying through their teeth because it's only a couple of days ago there were announcements about recovery being well under way and to get on the housing ladder before it's too late because of the house price boom.

[Pindar]

The mood changes like the bitcoin price.

[Democorruptcy]

That's the problem with a currency zone.

Just 'cause Arabs, Russians and Chinese billionaires want to buy up Kensington and Chelsea doesn't mean ZIRP is wrong for the 60m people who don't live/work in the City.

They won't bother until the terraces in Newcastle are rising at 30% p.a.

When annual HPI was near 30% in 2003 the BoE cut rates to a 48 year low. Cue the subsequent housing market high.

"This is one of the biggest gambles any central banks has done - cutting rates when house price inflation is close to 30% and inflation is already above target," said John Butler, UK economist at HSBC.

"It is true to say [the Bank is] playing with fire."

Ross Walker, UK economist at Royal Bank of Scotland, said: "I can see nothing in the data that suggests the UK consumer needs further interest rate easing

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/2732645.stm

[The Knimbies who say No]

^

this.

It's amazing to me, such is the strength of the Force, that even hardened HPCers are being mind-******ed into believing Osborne and Carney's spin!

So Help to Buy has put a couple of billion into the market since April? Big deal. Transactions are still way down. Builders are bringing forward their construction plans? Make the most of it lads, the credit impulse from HTB won't last long, and thanks for the new stock. Capital outflows are pouring out of China? No, they've been pouring into China all year. American banksters using their QE winnings to run up prices in the capital? No doubt, they've done the same in US metro areas. But US markets are falling again already because demand is entirely speculative and there are no genuine buyers at bubble prices.The UK economy still needs an additional £100+bn pumped into it every year to generate a miserable sodding 1.5% GDP growth. And even after a trillion pounds of govt borrowing the UK economy is still smaller than it was in 2008.

Get real!

Refreshing, as always.

[interestrateripoff]

They are in Swansea but they think it is a good thing.

Because it's boosting tax revenues. See here.

[interestrateripoff]

When annual HPI was near 30% in 2003 the BoE cut rates to a 48 year low. Cue the subsequent housing market high.

Thanks for the link. I'll add it to the Brown thread in my my link.

[Billy soy]

^

this.

It's amazing to me, such is the strength of the Force, that even hardened HPCers are being mind-******ed into believing Osborne and Carney's spin!

So Help to Buy has put a couple of billion into the market since April? Big deal. Transactions are still way down. Builders are bringing forward their construction plans? Make the most of it lads, the credit impulse from HTB won't last long, and thanks for the new stock. Capital outflows are pouring out of China? No, they've been pouring into China all year. American banksters using their QE winnings to run up prices in the capital? No doubt, they've done the same in US metro areas. But US markets are falling again already because demand is entirely speculative and there are no genuine buyers at bubble prices.The UK economy still needs an additional £100+bn pumped into it every year to generate a miserable sodding 1.5% GDP growth. And even after a trillion pounds of govt borrowing the UK economy is still smaller than it was in 2008.

Get real!

Amen!