Well Its Been 2 Years!

[Bemused]

Hello some familiar names still on here!

About 2 years ago now I registered on this site (not with this name, my old one has since been taken). Frankly I logged in to post as I was confused. A reasonably busy forum, that has since become almost an obsession to many, was arguing that a crash was on its way in the UK housing market. One bunch of regulars lead by some sad case called the "monkey" were even going so far as to trounce any other forum, post notices in estate agent windows and try and actively force a crash to happen (desperate and deluded yes but sadly true!).

I was intrigued so I posted my views which were that the yes the property market was overvalued, but the economic and social conditions were still favourable for further price rises. A crash was unlikely and at best there would be a gradual realisation that high pricing would force out first time buyers who simply would no longer be able to borrow enough. Sellers would then have to price more realistically to get a sale.

The result for this heresy of breaking the party line and not repeating the mantra of bubble, idiotic speculation consumer credit junky, fiat paper system collapse, and Brown bashing 50per cent collapse yada yada was that I was given loads of abuse. I just bowed out gracefully and went off and bought a house anyway. I have now sold it for a nice profit. Bully for me now queue the desparado brigade of quasi-socialist student ranting ...

My point being ... well its 2 years on. The economy has changed a bit; prices are slipping but not massively in most areas. Will I buy again?

If it was for investment no there are better opportunities elsewhere. As a family home though ... maybe. Rent seems to offer better value and peace of mind at the moment, but as a long term solution it’s not that favourable.

I will wait and see for a while. However for the slavishly obsessed amongst you this stagnation business is looking like a reality IMHO for at least another 12 months maybe even 3 years. Can you really handle another 2 years of analysing every fragment of press clippings, convinced that just around the corner houses will cost half as much?

Maybe and its only one possible consequence the "irrational exuberance" will result in not just a house price crash, but something far more severe in global econonomics. The problem then is whether it is best to have your cash tied up in bricks and mortar or in a bank where hyperinflation could strip your hard earned cash of its value??

[Time to raise the rents.]

Option B for me thanks, bricks & mortar.

[underpressuretobuy]

Hello some familiar names still on here!

About 2 years ago now I registered on this site (not with this name, my old one has since been taken).

I will wait and see for a while. However for the slavishly obsessed amongst you this stagnation business is looking like a reality IMHO for at least another 12 months maybe even 3 years. Can you really handle another 2 years of analysing every fragment of press clippings, convinced that just around the corner houses will cost half as much?

TROLL - In case you hadn't noticed a lot of people on here are priced out.

That is we earn good salaries but cannot afford anything

Thanks for posting.

[Bear Goggles]

Blimey! Stagnation, stagnation, stagnation.

It's all doom and gloom on this forum today. I'm not used to it. Amazing what 0.2% fall in CPI can do to a place.

It's enough to drive you to (binge) drink

[Bemused]

TROLL - In case you hadn't noticed a lot of people on here are priced out.

That is we earn good salaries but cannot afford anything

Thanks for posting.

I have been reasnably polite considering the abuse I got for my views - I do not see why posting is a different opinion is clasified as being a TROLL! Believe it or not despite having a large deposit I am also priced out of the properties that I expect to be able to buy on my salary!!!

[underpressuretobuy]

I have been reasnably polite considering the abuse I got for my views - I do not see why posting is a different opinion is clasified as being a TROLL! Believe it or not despite having a large deposit I am also priced out of the properties that I expect to be able to buy on my salary!!!

As you very well know, I have not referred to you as a troll because you express a different opinion but because you refer to HPCers as people who have sat here doing nothing for two years except waiting for prices to fall and slavishly scouring newspaper clippings.

I'm sorry but I don't see that inaccurate generalisation as being "reasonably polite".

That description certainly does not apply to me.

If I called you a troll it is because you would be amazed at the number of people who think its really original to post saying 'ha ha I made loads of money on property while you guys were all waiting for property prices to fall'. To me that is how your post reads. To someone like me who has been on here three months examining the situation because I realised I couldn't buy - it is insulting. I can't believe you don't know that.

This is what I objected to:

"Can you really handle another 2 years of analysing every fragment of press clippings, convinced that just around the corner houses will cost half as much?"

I don't have a choice, many of the people on this site don't have a choice.

We are priced out, we cannot afford it and so what if we maintain an interest in the property market even though we are priced out.

[Bemused]

Hi Bemused,

All credit to you for having worked things out for yourself so successfully btw. I do agree that many on here or that were once on here, called the market decline too soon.

Nevertheless, as you've pointed out yourself, now is certainly not the right time to buy, especially in my area as the market is taking a marked turn for the worse.

Hyperinflation in the UK you say? No, deflation I reckon with many already struggling to make the sums add up is what I'm seeing, even with absurdly low IRs. Best to tuck away one's savings somewhere safe until the inevitable fallout becomes apparent, then it's fill yer boots up time whenever that may be.

There's no need to rush anymore, value must return to the housing market before sales recover to healthy levels once more IMO.

All the best,

WA.

What a polite person - hello to you to! The only problem with this waiting game though is for how long?

I could wait up to 15 months but after that would be looking at getting a family home.

Are there really enough cracks in the economy to prevent a long period of stagnation? I have my doubts.

[since the beginning]

As you very well know, I have not referred to you as a troll because you express a different opinion but because you refer to HPCers as people who have sat here doing nothing for two years except waiting for prices to fall and slavishly scouring newspaper clippings.

I'm sorry but I don't see that inaccurate generalisation as being "reasonably polite".

That description certainly does not apply to me.

If I called you a troll it is because you would be amazed at the number of people who think its really original to post saying 'ha ha I made loads of money on property while you guys were all waiting for property prices to fall'. To me that is how your post reads. To someone like me who has been on here three months examining the situation because I realised I couldn't buy - it is insulting. I can't believe you don't know that.

This is what I objected to:

"Can you really handle another 2 years of analysing every fragment of press clippings, convinced that just around the corner houses will cost half as much?"

I don't have a choice, many of the people on this site don't have a choice.

We are priced out, we cannot afford it and so what if we maintain an interest in the property market even though we are priced out.

Great post and something that some people just can't seem to get in their head.

Edited November 15, 2005 by since the beginning

[Bemused]

As you very well know, I have not referred to you as a troll because you express a different opinion but because you refer to HPCers as people who have sat here doing nothing for two years except waiting for prices to fall and slavishly scouring newspaper clippings.

I'm sorry but I don't see that inaccurate generalisation as being "reasonably polite".

That description certainly does not apply to me.

If I called you a troll it is because you would be amazed at the number of people who think its really original to post saying 'ha ha I made loads of money on property while you guys were all waiting for property prices to fall'. To me that is how your post reads. To someone like me who has been on here three months examining the situation because I realised I couldn't buy - it is insulting. I can't believe you don't know that.

This is what I objected to:

"Can you really handle another 2 years of analysing every fragment of press clippings, convinced that just around the corner houses will cost half as much?"

I don't have a choice, many of the people on this site don't have a choice.

We are priced out, we cannot afford it and so what if we maintain an interest in the property market even though we are priced out.

Sorry if you objected to "Can you really handle another 2 years of analysing every fragment of press clippings, convinced that just around the corner houses will cost half as much?"

However there is a level of obsession on here and a tendacy to look for evidence that supports a singular view point. My belief is that a stagnation in housing is very likely until 2008. Debating every fluctuation and every report from Halifax, land registry, whoever will make little difference. These things move very slowly and unless there is some MAJOR economic shift the HPC is still some way off and even then is unlikely to be much more than a 20% correction IMHO.

So you are priced out of the market. Well so am I from the type of property I rent. Poor old me. I can do one of three things - bite the bullet and get a mortgage that is uncomfortable, continue renting or buy somewhere less than ideal.

Whichever I chose will be my own doing. I will not blame anyone else nor take any notice of the media with regards to what is going on. They have no idea and will spin whatever angle for the best story they can get.

(Ps if your a landlord good luck to you I hold no grudges, if you have flipped property and put in some hard graft again good luck to you - if I am priced out due to landlords and developers well thats my issue to deal with and I wont cast the blaim elsewhere but work patiently to a solution be it enjoying cheap rent or being burdened with a large morgage on a less than ideal house).

[munimula]

I was intrigued so I posted my views which were that the yes the property market was overvalued, but the economic and social conditions were still favourable for further price rises. A crash was unlikely and at best there would be a gradual realisation that high pricing would force out first time buyers who simply would no longer be able to borrow enough. Sellers would then have to price more realistically to get a sale.

The reason that I refuse to buy at current prices is that at 1998 prices + average CPI I would need a £30K mortgage with my current savings, £180 mortgage per month

However due to excessive HPI today I would need min £130K mortgage for the same property, £800 mortgage per month

Difference between mortgage costs = £600 every month, £7200 per year or about £10K of pre-tax earnings.

Without excessive HPI this is money that could be used to pay off the mortgage, save into a pension, buy things and stimulate the economy. The difference that HPI has made over the last 7 years is that if I represent an average FTBer and I buy or have bought in the last 2-3 years then a considerable amount of my money now has to service mortgage debt and is taken out of the wider economy.

I absolutely refuse to take on this kind of debt to pass the money up the chain to fund everybody else. If I did buy and take on this kind of debt I would have it for the next 25 years and like all those that are stretching to buy now the majority of their money during their working lives will have to go on servicing their mortgage debt. Basically everybody is becoming a complete slave to their mortgages and will be all their lives. This is why whether it happens quickly or not, whether it takes 2, 5 or even 10 years there is only one way for house prices to go. It's black and white in my oppinion. Think about it, if all this extra money is being sucked out of the economy to service mortgage debt then it doesn't bode very well for the economy or employment going forward and the slow down on the high street is just the start.

If things don't change then I along with what will probably become a flood of young people will take my savings abroad for a better quality of life somewhere else.

Edited November 15, 2005 by munimula

[jellybean]

Can you really handle another 2 years of analysing every fragment of press clippings, convinced that just around the corner houses will cost half as much?

Yes on that one to. I am not going anywhere.

[Bemused]

I absolutely refuse to take on this kind of debt to pass the money up the chain to fund everybody else.

Thats fair enough I am also reluctant to take on any mortgage over 80K and will most likely rent for another year or so

This is why whether it happens quickly or not, whether it takes 2, 5 or even 10 years there is only one way for house prices to go.

If you are able to do so that's great and in part is what my post is gettting at. There will be no instant boil-in-a-bag crash and to wait happily on the sidelines is one thing, but to fret over every false start is clearly a worrying proposition.

If you have cheap rent and can save why not just make the most of it?

[teddyboy]

I am somewhat bemused that people are so concerned about our welfare on this site.

Remarks like "can you really wait another 12 months?"

"You should buy now, the CPI is (chancellor adjusted) to 2.5% <cough> so prices are gonna rise"

"You should borrow as much as you can afford - its so easy nowadays with super low IR's"

ARE THESE PEOPLE REALLY TRYING TO HELP US?

This says one thing to me - SALESMAN!

The other factor that has come to light in the past 24-48 hours is the number of people giving up! What has changed in your life. Have you suddenly got 50K and said sod it - im buying? No, the chances are you are PRICED OUT! Whether you believe all the VI BS we have seen the last few days, or not. Your circumstance is no different.

Why are we doom-mongerers? Do not think that high HPI is causing SEVERE DOOM AND GLOOM to MILLIONS of people who want a house to reside in and not to FLIP?

STICK TO YOUR GUNS PEOPLE! LET THEM THROW MUD!

We aint up to our eyes in DEBT! I think a lot of this 'trolling', 'VI bull@ is prominent because if it happens even HALF of what we think will happen, then these people will be up SHITS CREEK*

*PS this is not a property location that is ideal for a profession couple. Its a nice way of saying your f*cked!

TB

Edited November 15, 2005 by teddyboy

[Bubble Pop Electric]

So you are priced out of the market. Well so am I from the type of property I rent. Poor old me. I can do one of three things - bite the bullet and get a mortgage that is uncomfortable, continue renting or buy somewhere less than ideal.

Whichever I chose will be my own doing. I will not blame anyone else nor take any notice of the media with regards to what is going on. They have no idea and will spin whatever angle for the best story they can get.

I fail to see why are people not aloud to moan or complain? Why shouldn't they feel sorry for themselves? How does it affect you apart from reading this - i think they're entitled to feel bitter if they want to. There seems to be a lot of people who come on here, and complain that everyone moans - well i say get it out of your system - good on you for moaning - That's what it's here for surely. So all you go-getters - that's great that you don't have a good old moan and you're up for a jog at four in the morning - and you don't obsess about anything. It would be really dull on here if people didn't have a good old rant - i like all you ranters - keep up the good work!

[ʎqɐqɹǝʞɐɥs]

What a polite person - hello to you to! The only problem with this waiting game though is for how long?

I could wait up to 15 months but after that would be looking at getting a family home.

Are there really enough cracks in the economy to prevent a long period of stagnation? I have my doubts.

Ha ha ha he! You are either the thickest hpcer to ever post or we should have sounded the AWOOGA alarm 5 posts ago. What do you find sooo hard to comprend that people are priced out the market?!? ******in fool

[jellybean]

I could wait up to 15 months but after that would be looking at getting a family home.

Are there really enough cracks in the economy to prevent a long period of stagnation? I have my doubts.

Does it matter if there is a 12, 24 or 36 month period of stagnation? Are you so keen to give yourself a huge debt, sleepless nights and a pretty good chance of loosing a year or two's worth of wages and possibly you're family?

It would be nothing short of insane to buy a house just now. If nothing else, look at the graph on the front page of the web site. That should tell you everything you need to know.

The anlysing every piece of inflation news and house prices and so on is just a bit of a giggle. If nothing else, this site has provided a rational justification to some of my intuitions.

I can aford to buy a bigger house. I am buggered I f I am giving my hard earnd to some bugger who has done nothing but sit on his / her ****.

[ʎqɐqɹǝʞɐɥs]

Does it matter if there is a 12, 24 or 36 month period of stagnation? Are you so keen to give yourself a huge debt, sleepless nights and a pretty good chance of loosing a year or two's worth of wages and possibly you're family?

It would be nothing short of insane to buy a house just now. If nothing else, look at the graph on the front page of the web site. That should tell you everything you need to know.

The anlysing every piece of inflation news and house prices and so on is just a bit of a giggle. If nothing else, this site has provided a rational justification to some of my intuitions.

I can aford to buy a bigger house. I am buggered I f I am giving my hard earnd to some bugger who has done nothing but sit on his / her ****.

Please dont let the troll wind you up, thats why hes 'bemused'.

[Guest Bart of Darkness]

if you have flipped property and put in some hard graft

Isn't that a contradiction in terms?

Two coats of magnolia paint = hard graft?

[Melmoth the Wanderer]

Yet another stupid comment about public sector workers. I have worked in public, private, and charitable sectors and your fantasy about lazy public sector workers is just that - it only exists in your head. Grow up. Or better still express these views next time you want assistance from an ambulance worker, doctor, police officer, social worker, or your kids need teaching, or the lights in your street need fixing, or whatever.

[Bemused]

Ha ha ha he! You are either the thickest hpcer to ever post or we should have sounded the AWOOGA alarm 5 posts ago. What do you find sooo hard to comprend that people are priced out the market?!? ******in fool

Why do you find it so hard to see that

1.every person in the country does not conform to your opinions

2.It is possible to offer a counter -argument without being a TROLL

3.not everybody is priced out and there is more than one market - its a big country with large variations in earnings, savings and cost of housing!

This year alone I have known 5 people sell their homes quite quickly and 4 people in my work place have bought (and no I do not earn massive amounts of money). And before you say it I know its not the whole picture but its as worth while an anecdotal as all the others of price drops and houses not selling as all the other anecdotals that are so eagerly lapped up here.

[Marina]

Well, 2 years on, indeed 2 years (almost) since I sold to rent. In that time prices of the sort of property I am interested that have actually sold are down between 10% and 15%.

Very few in the price range I am interested in actually sell - at least not for a year or so and then only after several price reductions - or going on and off the market a few times with different agents.

New build flats - 15% discount without negotiating.

Well into a HPC where I am - but its not called a HPC because:

There is still loads of overpriced property on the market which gives a false impression of prices.

It's taking time - people are reluctant to drop so only motivated sellers are doing deals.

Prices achieved are still way above what they sold for a few years ago.

So, everything going well as far as I am concerned. Definitely in the right direction and downward momentum is growing as the debt-driven consumer orgy is now over.

I'm feeling very optimistic about the future. In four or five years property will be back to reasonably affordable levels for young people.

Only fly in the ointment is that when it becomes cheaper to buy than rent - the market will take off again and the BTL vultures will descend and there will be another boom.

Higher interest rates will kill this so we'll just have to hope the massive trade imbalance in the States (and here) will cause IRs to rise in the medium term.

[homeowner]

Only fly in the ointment is that when it becomes cheaper to buy than rent - the market will take off again and the BTL vultures will descend and there will be another boom.

Higher interest rates will kill this so we'll just have to hope the massive trade imbalance in the States (and here) will cause IRs to rise in the medium term.

Good point.. but dont you think as people are now obsessed with property that as soon as any significant decrease takes place the investors will be back in along with all these FTB who have been saving and a full HPC will actually be averted by the people who want it most.

[London Landlady]

Pleeeease can someone tell me - whatis AWOOGA?????????????????

[Guest horace]

>> LL

AWOOGA?????????????????

It`s what die hard `HPC`ers cry when they read posts which do not confirm / support

their firmly held beliefs that house prices are over priced and must fall.

It`s a defence mechanism to intimidate those who take a contrary view.

Can often be heard in the House of Commons.

horace

Edited November 18, 2005 by horace

[Control Freak]

Good point.. but dont you think as people are now obsessed with property that as soon as any significant decrease takes place the investors will be back in along with all these FTB who have been saving and a full HPC will actually be averted by the people who want it most.

Isn't this when the 'Sentiment Factor' will kick in. It drove the prices up, and it will drive the prices lower than we now think would be a 'Good Investment Price'.