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House Price Crash Forum


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About Bemused

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  1. I disagree - the people that lend it to them should!
  2. If they are keen to help you out maybe you could buy the house and be a live in landlord to help cover the mortgage payments? pay them back monthly from the other tenants rents If a few years down you need your own place maybe you could sell it and buy flats - or convert it into 2 flats and let one to cover your own payments
  3. If they were serious about controlling inflation they would have acted long ago. Keep a careful watch on this in 2007 as STR's could quickly find themselves well out of pocket ....
  4. They will do what they usually do debate all the above, waffle about the US slowdown and all the poor ole retailers it will affect and then decide to keep rates on hold.
  5. Ah this is the key issue alongside what level of inflation will be prevailant
  6. Strange how the unprecendted **** up in Iraq is now all the fault of Iran is it not?
  7. Unfortunately not so in my neck of the woods - if rates went to 6% probably.
  8. I get grouchy with HPC as there is a very blinkered perspective here. Without rates hitting 6.5 - 7% (unlikely) or a big recession (possible) prices are very unlikely to halve overnight Its very hard to generalise as there will be big differences in the type and location of the property ("shortage" homes - eg family home good area, good schools and new build city centre flats for example) but I can see the regions sobering up to the fact the market is unsustainable and prices dropping. Without an external stimulus though I do not think it will be a rapid affair. It could taken 2/3 years and then stagnate whilst inflationary pressures build.
  9. Oh god I forgot how frustrating posting here was compared to theotherplace.com (edit i can not believe that fubra have cencored a competitors website - what does that say about this place!!!) Yes I think HPI will go Y-O-Y negative by end 2007 Yes I think house prices are overvalued Yes I think were in a bubble Yes I think there will be a correction Yes I think it will start in the regions this time not in London Yes I think interest rates will rise but nowhere near enough to keep pace with inflation (edit BOE on the day of the largest rise in mortgage borrowing at the tail end of a huge boom keep rates on hold) Yes I think sterling will be devalued alongside the dollar Yes I think prices will fall but not by anything like 50% (without huge IR increases or a severe global recession) Yes I believe lax money supply and accomodative interest rates are here to stay in the the short to medium term This leads me to believe that although property is overvalued and likely to fall some way it may be a better inflation hedge than money in the bank. i would rather own property "worth" 300K that falls by 60K and then stagnates for 4 years or so in a high inflation environment than have cash festering in a bank losing its real worth as inflation rages in the wider economy. I can not see the future just keeping my mind open so I can gauge the situation as it unfolds.
  10. I see you have skimmed the post and picked out the bits you want to support your arguament - have you been to realistbear school of posting? Prior to 2005 a drop looked possible. Since then in my neck of the woods property has rocked to around 50-70K increase. By next year it is likely to increase by another 10-20K. It will take one hell of a crash to knock 80K off property in the short term (1 -2 years), unless you are talking protracted falls over several years (which if inflation carries on as it is would decimate savings). No I am not in the South East or London Read the posts I have made. I have already stated that HPI will go Y-O-Y negative in the UK in 2007 dragged down by the regions so the North and North East could well lead the way. I have also said I will consider buying if the BOE do not raise rates significantly as INFLATION and a DEVALUATION of £ sterling are far more IMMEDIATE threads to to my current situation that a crash in house prices
  11. Cant comment on the whole country obviously but in the markets I am familiar with London, Bristol and Surrey things are still booming. I really don't buy this whole conspiracy stuff. Obviously the figures are distorted by the obscene costs of and scramble for properties in prosperous areas, but the BBC et al are not involved in some enormous conspiracy headed by Gordon Brown and backed by the mysterious forces in the US as some of the nut jobs here seem to imply.
  12. sure they are either streaching themselves to the limit on any number of stupid mortgage "deals " that are available and commiting themselves to a life of servitude and praying rates never exceed 6% in their lifetime - or cashing in on previous huge gains made in property and taking advantage of very low interest rates.
  13. Ahh refreshing an open mind on HPC! I am of similar sentiments but for slightly different reasons. I will be keeping a close eye on what the BOE does and may have to buy as well (maybe not in the UK) this will grieve me no end.
  14. Could it be that *shock*horror* people really are still buying property? Go on shout bull, awooga, VI, sheeple, but in my neck of the woods property has been going up steadily. It will continue early next year . If rates dont keep rising in response I will buy (though not nececarily in the UK).
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