Stock Market

[Eddie_George]

This. This and this.

The window of opportunity for the continued advancement of the human race is rapidly slamming shut. We've pissed away (pissing away, if you're more optimistic) a once, never to repeated gift of high energy density hydro-carbons.

The scientists that could have leveraged this gift towards a clean energy on-world/exploratory off-world future for mankind have been seriously misallocated. Those of us who refused to join the high-frequency coin clipping pointlessness remain underpaid, overworked and seriously thinking feckit and joining them in their gilded handbasket to a dead biosphere hell.

It is a shame. It's a dreadful, awful crying out shame

(Yes, I am a larf at parties too!)

Tragic isn't it? What a waste of talent. Just think how much better Britain could've been if this talent was put to good use. Instead, all the country is famous for these days is gambling.

Edited April 17, 2013 by Eddie_George

[sossij]

Tragic isn't it? What a waste of talent. Just think how much better Britain could've been if this talent was put to good use. Instead, all the country is famous for these days is gambling.

Agreed. Utterly tragic.

When you think what someone like Elon Musk can achieve - PayPal, Tesla Motors, SpaceX - just think what an army of scientists and engineers could achieve with the billions that have stuffed down the gullets of the bankers in this country. It's criminal.

Edited April 17, 2013 by sossij

[pl1]

Agreed. Utterly tragic.

When you think what someone like Elon Musk can achieve - PayPal, Tesla Motors, SpaceX - just think what an army of scientists and engineers could achieve with the billions that have stuffed down the gullets of the bankers in this country. It's criminal.

A lot of these physicists became "quants" and ushered in the financial crisis after Bill Clinton cancelled the Super Conducting Super Collider. After years of sucking off the public teet they didn't know what to do with themselves and got sucked into an altogether different kind of vortex.

[Gigantic Purple Slug]

Dow goes through 15000.

[justthisbloke]

Dow goes through 15000.

I'm still sat on a pile of cash Thought I'd be clever last summer and wait for the Grexit apocalypse that never happened - and have watched the markets rise without pause ever since.

Still, I've got about 60%[1] in UK equities which have done pretty well. Surprisingly well - I hold boring divi payers that I'd never expected to race away yet seem to have risen ahead of the index. Weird.

[1] The percentage has been pretty constant; the growth in equities approximately equalling the amount I've added to the cash pile from earnings.

[SuperChimp]

This. This and this.

The window of opportunity for the continued advancement of the human race is rapidly slamming shut. We've pissed away (pissing away, if you're more optimistic) a once, never to repeated gift of high energy density hydro-carbons.

The scientists that could have leveraged this gift towards a clean energy on-world/exploratory off-world future for mankind have been seriously misallocated. Those of us who refused to join the high-frequency coin clipping pointlessness remain underpaid, overworked and seriously thinking feckit and joining them in their gilded handbasket to a dead biosphere hell.

Excellent post.

Maybe on other planets great civilizations have risen and fallen and when they are discovered all that is left in the rubble is the alien equivalent of Location Location Location.

[sossij]

Excellent post.

Thanks 98% Chimp.

Maybe on other planets great civilizations have risen and fallen and when they are discovered all that is left in the rubble is the alien equivalent of Location Location Location.

That would be galactically depressing

[Mrs Bear]

Of course all these graphs fail to account for the effect of dividends and dividend reinvestment, with which they'd look a fair bit more positive.

Equities are still yielding a good income, and in a low interest rate environment where cash-savings and bonds offer negative real returns, I know where my money's going.

That's the thing. IMO the stock market will do OK - up a bit, down a bit - until IRs start shooting up.

[winkie]

Sainsburys have a special this month on butterkist popcorn - might be worth getting a bag or two in along with some beers.

[winkie]

There will not be enough time to run from your shoeshine boy to your stockbroker.

....it is totally out of our hands....if not in the know who knows.....gains made on a nano second both on the up and the downs......short-termism get even shorter.

[justthisbloke]

That's the thing. IMO the stock market will do OK - up a bit, down a bit - until IRs start shooting up.

I don't see that happening anytime soon.

1 month - certainly not

3 months - also certainly not

1 year - almost certainly not

2 years - probably not

3 years - getting possible, I guess - but I still don't see "high rates" as likely.

So we're looking at 5 year plus - possibly a lot longer. That's a long time to go without an income.

[Democorruptcy]

I don't see that happening anytime soon.

1 month - certainly not

3 months - also certainly not

1 year - almost certainly not

2 years - probably not

3 years - getting possible, I guess - but I still don't see "high rates" as likely.

So we're looking at 5 year plus - possibly a lot longer. That's a long time to go without an income.

An increase in the tax on saving interest will come before any interest rate rises. The governbankment will want their share.

[wish I could afford one]

Many people, myself included, think the stock market is in an enormous bubble, and ROI is poor considerng the market fundamentals in a recession.

...

I'll be contrarian and say I don't agree.

I agree the S&P 500 looks frothy and my calculations suggest an over valuation of about 35%.

However my maths suggests the FTSE100 is only about 10% over valued. Additionally the UK market still has some good solid dividend payers available on forecast dividend yields of over 5% for anyone thinking HYP. SSE, VOD and RDSB immediately come to mind.

[wish I could afford one]

FTSE 100 since 1984, I don't see a bubble there.

http://uk.finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=^FTSE#symbol=^ftse;range=my;compare=;indicator=volume;charttype=area;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=undefined;

FTSE as typically reported by the mainstream media.

FTSE represented in an appropriate non sensationalist way. Ie presented on a log y-axis and corrected for the devaluation of what it is measured in.

I see since 1993 a market with no growth but instead one that oscillates about a fairly consistent value providing good buy and sell opportunities for an investor walking a mechanical buy, hold, rebalance long term path of wealth creation. On top of that you get something that nobody looking at these types of charts seems to remember exists - Dividends. This post shows just how important dividends have been no matter whether buying the FTSE100, FTSE250, FTSE Small Cap or FTSE All Share.

[gf3]

My view is there is only one way the stock market is going and that is up.

This will continue until the yield effectively fall to zero and then it will be game up.

There will be no yield where ever you look. Millionaires will find they will have to spend their capital to maintain their standard of living. Billionaires will find they can just about continue to grow their wealth.

I have no idea how long it will take for this scenario to arrive but I think this is the long term future.

So fill your boots until then.

[200p]

People calling things "it's a bubble", is in a bubble.

[kenzdawg]

Scientist predicts 60% market collapse.

Chris Martenson is a world-renowned expert on identifying dangerous, yet hidden, exponential growth patterns in global economies, energy demand, and food consumption...

And he is predicting a 60% stock market collapse will strike in the next three months.

Martenson’s opinion isn’t to be taken lightly, as his research is highly regarded by the United Nations, UK Parliament, and Fortune 500 companies.

His shocking forecast is based on a new alarming pattern he’s identified — he’s calling it “a dreaded triple top”

Edited May 4, 2013 by kenzdawg

[19 year mortgage 8itch]

My view is there is only one way the stock market is going and that is up.

This will continue until the yield effectively fall to zero and then it will be game up.

There will be no yield where ever you look. Millionaires will find they will have to spend their capital to maintain their standard of living. Billionaires will find they can just about continue to grow their wealth.

I have no idea how long it will take for this scenario to arrive but I think this is the long term future.

So fill your boots until then.

I liked this post and aside from making a SM prediction (how would I know?) is how I've recently thought we'll end up.

Just hope it is sooner rather than later.

[goldbug9999]

My view is there is only one way the stock market is going and that is up.

This will continue until the yield effectively fall to zero and then it will be game up.

Since a AAA gilt is effectively a zero risk stock (or in theory should be ...) the coupons acts a bench mark for the minimum yield. So thats what, 2% ?,FTSE 100 yields average about 2.5% currently so that means theres only .5% risk adjustment which seems unsustainable low to me.

[Frank Hovis]

Since a AAA gilt is effectively a zero risk stock (or in theory should be ...) the coupons acts a bench mark for the minimum yield. So thats what, 2% ?,FTSE 100 yields average about 2.5% currently so that means theres only .5% risk adjustment which seems unsustainable low to me.

FTSE all-share 3.4%

http://www.investorschronicle.co.uk/2013/04/17/funds-and-etfs/investment-trusts/investment-trusts-beat-ftse-all-share-yield-sKYTSie4s9Unl4oSreJwzH/article.html

1 year gilt 0.26%

5 year gilt 0.71%

10 year gilt 1.56%

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business/market_data/gilt/default.stm

So risk adjustment 2% - 3% and that's just on the yield.

The risk IMO is of high inflation continuing for many years which the FTSE should match but will erode both the coupon and capital of the gilt.

[goldbug9999]

So risk adjustment 2% - 3% and that's just on the yield.

The risk IMO is of high inflation continuing for many years which the FTSE should match but will erode both the coupon and capital of the gilt.

OK, still think it looks low even at 2-3%. The thing about inflation is that it all depends on future policy decision that we (as in those of us who don't move in the circles of power) have no way of predicting so that makes it an out and out punt IMO.