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kenzdawg

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About kenzdawg

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    HPC Regular
  1. kenzdawg

    We were ruined by Thatcher, Blair, and Hayek.

    As usual with the Guardian there is a semantic confusion above and below the line on what neoliberalism is. What is it if it is not open markets, globalised supply chains, free movement of capital and labour? But there is a belief that there is an a la carte menu of policies to be chosen from. Furthermore, tell them that reversing globalisation will punish emerging markets with who knows what consequence and they glitch like windows 98.
  2. HPC favourite Mark Blyth on "Global Trumpism". Here. Makes the case that economic nationalism isn't the preserve of the right; either we're all getting more "racist" or the wheels are falling off globalisation. Strangely the people who shrilly insist on the former seem to be most heavily invested in the latter.
  3. kenzdawg

    Taleb nails it. Again.

    Trump is firstly an economic nationalist. If you want an idea of the future look to Herbert Hoover, and he will likely be as unsuccessful. A Trump supporter said it last night on the BBC's radio coverage that the reality of globalisation for most working Americans has merely been wage arbitrage at their expense. The deflationary effect on consumer prices has been largely offset by inflation in asset prices (as no one here needs to be told). So superficially at least Trump's argument makes sense, the problem comes when you ask who is going to buy all the goods made by the "jobs brought home" when the trade barriers are in place? This will only become apparent when the dollar stops being the dominant reserve currency. I think the post-Trump world will be one of discrete, non-comumicating trade blocks that will be not unlike the era of Empire, with great power rivalry and localised colonial wars.
  4. Just a tip: with a gold money account you can exit your metal holding in dollars. I bought back into gold a week before the vote, was regretting the day before and have made a respectable 10% since. Personally I think the 'fundamentals' are against a large rally right now (cot, usd index), I expect there to be a retraction before the next round of QE and we're off to the races again. But who knows, we're still at panic stations.
  5. kenzdawg

    No Interest Rate Rise Until 2020: Yippee!

    There's no strong reason for thinking there will be an interest rate rise for the foreseeable. We are in a secular deflationary environment; a combination of peak debt, low demand, we're on the cusp of a recession, deflationary automation - hence a liquidity trap. No one knows how to reinflate the developed economies, anyone who says otherwise is a liar. I'd give up on expecting the inflation cavalry to save house prices.
  6. kenzdawg

    Independent Scotland 'would Find It Extremely Difficult To Join Eu'

    +1000. It gets up my goat to be constantly told the Scots want independence - the Scottish nationalists want it. I for one don't appreciate their ventriloquist act. That said, I'm slightly torn on the subject. A post independence Scotland will probably be a more socially, if not fiscally, conservative country (the small c conservative SUP were up to 1965 the party of government in Scotland), and it's one of scandals of Scottish politics that there isn't a functioning christian democratic party to represent that constituency. Also, the shower of cyber nats who think this is the mother of all general elections and that there will be not more Tory government (which will be nominally true, just not they way they think) will get what they deserve good and hard. But on the whole probably not a good thing.
  7. kenzdawg

    432 People

    Possibly because much of the land in Scotland is economically useless. A lot of the highland are poor quality grazing land suitable for a small population of sheep or grouse, hence the large estates. Yet certain people go on about this like it was some terrible injustice. Who on earth does it actually effect?
  8. kenzdawg

    Laughable House

    The owner probably has mobility problems. See the brain/on switch? Use it.
  9. kenzdawg

    Optimistic Pricing In Edinburgh

    Piss-take of the week could go to this one. Getting on for 3.5k psm it seems solicitors are back to testing peak prices for some properties.
  10. kenzdawg

    Buying In Edinburgh

    No, its a falling market, albeit agonisingly slowly. Does it work for you? Dunno, but if you've come here hoping we'll talk you into it you're on to a hiding to nothing. Check out citylets.co.uk for info on the rental market. Otherwise, DYOR.
  11. Comfortable journalist in cosy niche industry discovers harsh fact about the labour market: employers don't want employees. Period. Not only are they are cost rather than a benefit, but they are an inferior substitution good - inferior to capital machinery. For the first time machines are encroaching on intellectual labour and will keep on doing so until it reaches academia, law, medicine. This is the future, there will be less productive work to do and the proles (in the marxist sense of those who sell their surplus labour) won't like it.
  12. I recall reading (and please correct me) that someone in the US was buying up delinquent student loans for pennies on the dollar and forgiving them as a charitable gesture. If that's possible, and true, that's a business right there; buy up securitised student debt at a discount, identify the debtor and offer to forgive it for a 100% markup on cost. But honestly what a bizarre system we've concocted. If someone in the private sector came up to you and said would you like to ring a mountain of debt because you'll probably never have to repay it, that ought to raise more red flags than the chinese army.
  13. 2010: Mortgage salesman - "Ah, Mr Smith, thank you for coming in. Here's your cheque, more than you asked for I'm pleased to say, treat yourself on us, haha! No you wont have to pay a penny back until you can afford it, interest will accrue though. No sorry didn't say anything, off you toddle. 2015: "Ah Mr Smith, we've reviewed our policy on loan non-payers like you and decided your credit score is now zero. We do need you to pay off your debts. Yes I know what we said, but you're a big boy now and debts are debts and you incurred them." 2020: "What with the economy as it is we've sold our loan book to factors with retroactive legislation that debts are repaid starting at one pounds earnings. Parliamentary sovereignty's a bitch eh. That's what you get for trusting the government, now where's our f***ing money?"
  14. kenzdawg

    Stock Market

    Scientist predicts 60% market collapse.
  15. That's just obscurantism for the sake of it. There is a reason for it, even if the only reason is that people are being unreasonable. If there is one thing I've learnt from all this, though, it is don't take investment advice from people who think the world is about to end.
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