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Pay Off The Mortgage ...

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Spoke to a guy who's in trouble with his mortgage. About 60 years old, nice chap, upbeat. He bought in 2002, with second wife. He owes £275k + £80k on a second charge, property on market for £355k quick sale. £14k in arrears, monthly instalments over £1k. Term expires in less than a year.

He has a failing franchise, but wants to keep the house because the projected earnings will cover it. Also said he expects to earn enough through forex dealing. Wha? You mean spread betting? Yes, I've been watching the market for a couple of years and now I have a system for currency pairs. Just started to use it, and I get updates every morning. I won't be greedy, just playing the volatility. Problem is my broadband goes down regularly and I have to restart the computer ...

I covered my eyes. Couldn't watch.

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Spoke to a guy who's in trouble with his mortgage. About 60 years old, nice chap, upbeat. He bought in 2002, with second wife. He owes £275k + £80k on a second charge, property on market for £355k quick sale. £14k in arrears, monthly instalments over £1k. Term expires in less than a year.

He has a failing franchise, but wants to keep the house because the projected earnings will cover it. Also said he expects to earn enough through forex dealing. Wha? You mean spread betting? Yes, I've been watching the market for a couple of years and now I have a system for currency pairs. Just started to use it, and I get updates every morning. I won't be greedy, just playing the volatility. Problem is my broadband goes down regularly and I have to restart the computer ...

I covered my eyes. Couldn't watch.

So 9 years and f*ck all equity ?? good going, guess hes spunked it all MEWing thinking it was going to rise in value forever. Yeah spread betting is good for paying off a mortgage, not sure it will be his that gets payed off though ...

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I'm staggered that 20% win.

:blink:

There are two sides to every trade. The small guy (s) and people with trillions like Soros. Bit like playing brag and going blind with a pot load of money. Guess who wins?

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There was a piece on Working Lunch a few years ago about a guy who wanted to quit his job and become a Day-trader.

They pointed out in the show that to earn say £15,000 a year he would need a 10% return on his money - and then he'd be paying tax on his profits.

Basically - the guy (who looked a bit dim) had nothing to say and I felt embarassed for him.

Ultimately, you can't compete with Professional Traders - you can buy and hold certain shares and make some money - but you have a real lack of info. - and that is where people will get screwed. You can complain about the fees for funds - but you are paying them to look after your money, it's only fair they have a cut.

Believing that you have a way of beating the market - foolish.

(in saying that, I do occasionally use Betfair and I win consistently small amounts from races - typically £20 or so, which is from betting for and against the same horse. I'm good at spotting trends but would not consider this a reliable route to paying off my mortgage or paying for retirement)

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A bit more risky than looking for money on the floor, but I can't really lose. If it's not there I don't lose any money.

LOL! You the one who used to post about paying off the mortgage with pennies found on the pavement?

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There was a piece on Working Lunch a few years ago about a guy who wanted to quit his job and become a Day-trader.

They pointed out in the show that to earn say £15,000 a year he would need a 10% return on his money - and then he'd be paying tax on his profits.

Basically - the guy (who looked a bit dim) had nothing to say and I felt embarassed for him.

Ultimately, you can't compete with Professional Traders - you can buy and hold certain shares and make some money - but you have a real lack of info. - and that is where people will get screwed. You can complain about the fees for funds - but you are paying them to look after your money, it's only fair they have a cut.

Believing that you have a way of beating the market - foolish.

This guy isn't day trading - he's gambling with eye watering leverage! In his eyes the upside is there's no tax to pay on his gains. The question isn't even "What gains?" - it's "How do I negotiate my bankruptcy"?

Overall, I agree with your views on trading. Few have the ability, the rest don't know they don't have the ability.

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It is possible to make small profits using a disiplined set of rules, but the temptation is to start betting bigger and bigger on the back of those wins and you're wiped out in no time! Forget trying to pay off the mortgage!

---

Try this for fun for one month:

Open a demo account with any of the spreadbetters, and put on the following trades each day, that expire after 24hrs if not activated, with each of the major currency pairs:

Place an order; Long at the next key support level on a 15 minute chart, target 30 pips away, stop 15 pips away.

Place an order; Short at the next resistance level on a 15 minute chart, target 30 pips away, stop 15 pips away.

Bet size, for every £1000 in the account you can bet £1/pip. So a £10,000 account you can bet upto £10/pip.

Probability wise, a price will more likely obey a key resistance/support level than break it during a sideways trading range. Additionally price action spends 70% of the time in a sideways trading range.

---

Another forex trade is to google "London Breakout trade", but too many people do this currently I think, and counter traders are taking money off people trying it!

Edited by Money Spinner

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It is possible to make small profits using a disiplined set of rules, but the temptation is to start betting bigger and bigger on the back of those wins and you're wiped out in no time! Forget trying to pay off the mortgage!

---

Try this for fun for one month:

Open a demo account with any of the spreadbetters, and put on the following trades each day, that expire after 24hrs if not activated, with each of the major currency pairs:

Place an order; Long at the next key support level on a 15 minute chart, target 30 pips away, stop 15 pips away.

Place an order; Short at the next resistance level on a 15 minute chart, target 30 pips away, stop 15 pips away.

Bet size, for every £1000 in the account you can bet £1/pip. So a £10,000 account you can bet upto £10/pip.

Probability wise, a price will more likely obey a key resistance/support level than break it during a sideways trading range. Additionally price action spends 70% of the time in a sideways trading range.

---

Another forex trade is to google "London Breakout trade", but too many people do this currently I think, and counter traders are taking money off people trying it!

its pretty pointless arsing around pretending because the majority of it is emotion (specifically how you will behave in a position that is making/losing real money when it goes right or wrong, without knowing that (and the natural behaviourial instinct is to act perfectly incorrectly) you cant really learn much about yourself. Besides daytrading pure systems is boring and monotonous (IMO), its like licking envelopes for a job, it effectively takes the enjoyment out of it like professional gambling for a living i would guess

Edited by georgia o'keeffe

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Place an order; Long at the next key support level on a 15 minute chart, target 30 pips away, stop 15 pips away.

Place an order; Short at the next resistance level on a 15 minute chart, target 30 pips away, stop 15 pips away.

Bet size, for every £1000 in the account you can bet £1/pip. So a £10,000 account you can bet upto £10/pip.

Is this an English language forum?

Probability wise, a price will more likely obey a key resistance/support level than break it during a sideways trading range. Additionally price action spends 70% of the time in a sideways trading range.

---

Another forex trade is to google "London Breakout trade", but too many people do this currently I think, and counter traders are taking money off people trying it!

Edited by John The Pessimist

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Intraday fx spreadbetting. Doubt he'll last two weeks.

If his broadband keeps crashing and he has to restart his computer he will be lucky to last 2 trades :lol:

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If his broadband keeps crashing and he has to restart his computer he will be lucky to last 2 trades :lol:

best just to gamble, that way you will end up with no tax dues

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If his broadband keeps crashing and he has to restart his computer he will be lucky to last 2 trades :lol:

Ah, but he has automatic stops in place.

I've seen people sued when they thought they had stops. Amazing the liablities you can assume on t'intertubes with a credit card!

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I used to trade crude with spread bets just as the fun started to kick off in 08. I never tried to 'beat the market' just went with the trends. I shorted it down from about $100 to $40 in stages. Selling on the bounces. Although it's not as easy as it sounds! For example how do you when it's a pull back and a not turnaround. One trick I discovered which became very profitable was that on the last trading day of each month crude rallied by anything from $1 to $6 I assume as traders close short positions to crystilize profits to make there monthly profit/loss look good.

Once oil bottomed, I think it was Christmas 09ish I couldn't find any trades to make. I'd go a few weeks without doing anything then I'd get bored and try and force it. Basically gambling. Made about three big losses in a row and decided the fun was over so I packed it in. Made several thousand pounds in total though which gave a healthy boost to the house deposit fund so can't complain.

I wouldn't do it now though. My house deposit is too precious to take such big risks with.

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Spoke to a guy who's in trouble with his mortgage. About 60 years old, nice chap, upbeat. He bought in 2002, with second wife. He owes £275k + £80k on a second charge, property on market for £355k quick sale. £14k in arrears, monthly instalments over £1k. Term expires in less than a year.

He has a failing franchise, but wants to keep the house because the projected earnings will cover it. Also said he expects to earn enough through forex dealing. Wha? You mean spread betting? Yes, I've been watching the market for a couple of years and now I have a system for currency pairs. Just started to use it, and I get updates every morning. I won't be greedy, just playing the volatility. Problem is my broadband goes down regularly and I have to restart the computer ...

I covered my eyes. Couldn't watch.

If he is an experienced and competent trader then 1% a week would be a reasonable goal. Keeping the maths very simple for the purposes of illustration, that's 4% a month, assuming that he needs to earn say £2k a month then his account would need to be £50k as an absolute minimum. This is assuming he is any good and his amazing system works. However trading with a dodgy broadband connection would be a bit foolish. If that is a problem it would imply he is doing a short term strategy which makes doing this with a dodgy broadband even more foolish. And if he had £50k kicking around, that presumably would be better off spent paying down his debts.

My experience of forex spread betting in the last three years is that you can have a good strategy, but playing it is another. You are essentially competing against yourself. Working out when to bet in easy. If you cannot even do that, it is a total non-starter. It is taking the bet in the first place, then taking the profit or loss at the correct time which is hard. If you have a strategy working well, it is fine. But when you have a glaring buy or sell signal, but have just lost half a dozen bets in a row, will you still take it?

Believing that you have a way of beating the market - foolish.

You don't need to outwit people to win. Just work out if it is going up or down within a given timeframe.

its pretty pointless arsing around pretending because the majority of it is emotion (specifically how you will behave in a position that is making/losing real money when it goes right or wrong, without knowing that (and the natural behaviourial instinct is to act perfectly incorrectly) you cant really learn much about yourself. Besides daytrading pure systems is boring and monotonous (IMO), its like licking envelopes for a job, it effectively takes the enjoyment out of it like professional gambling for a living i would guess

Yeah, boredom is a killer.

I'd get bored and try and force it. Basically gambling.

Been there done that. Part of the reason my spread betting is currently profitable is I am no longer concerned about not seeing an opportunity so only bet when it appears to be a dead cert. Starting out and trading under pressure? The number of people who have been able to do that and be sucessful can be counted on the fingers of one hand.

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It is possible to make small profits using a disiplined set of rules, but the temptation is to start betting bigger and bigger on the back of those wins and you're wiped out in no time! Forget trying to pay off the mortgage!

---

Try this for fun for one month:

Open a demo account with any of the spreadbetters, and put on the following trades each day, that expire after 24hrs if not activated, with each of the major currency pairs:

Place an order; Long at the next key support level on a 15 minute chart, target 30 pips away, stop 15 pips away.

Place an order; Short at the next resistance level on a 15 minute chart, target 30 pips away, stop 15 pips away.

Bet size, for every £1000 in the account you can bet £1/pip. So a £10,000 account you can bet upto £10/pip.

Probability wise, a price will more likely obey a key resistance/support level than break it during a sideways trading range. Additionally price action spends 70% of the time in a sideways trading range.

So in a nutshell, what type of trade is this? What would this be called as an option strategy? Cannot quite visualise where the profits are coming from and where the losses are.

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If he is an experienced and competent trader then 1% a week would be a reasonable goal. Keeping the maths very simple for the purposes of illustration, that's 4% a month, assuming that he needs to earn say £2k a month then his account would need to be £50k as an absolute minimum.

Have you lost your mind? 4% a *year* is ambitious for any strategy that is meant to preserve the capital. I vaguely recall that Madoff was claiming to make approx 1.5% a month, so calling nearly three times that "reasonable" has substantial potential if you are into stand-up comedy. Do you realise that 1% a week is 67% a year? I have seen Ponzi schemes promising less.

Part of the reason my spread betting is currently profitable is I am no longer concerned about not seeing an opportunity so only bet when it appears to be a dead cert.

Please stop before everyone dies of laughter. It is fundamentally impossible for more than a few people on the planet to recognise dead-certs in the liquid forex markets with any reliability. If they exist at all, they can be easily recognised because they associate with other billionaires. If you don't, you are not one of them. "Currently", eh?

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Spreadbetting tops my salary up although I only aim for 25 pips a day and then stop. Only put on £2 per pip but most weeks hit my 125 pip target so make approx 1k a month tax free give or take.

I once stepped outside of my rules and got greedy. Lost every trade for 2 weeks trying to claw back losses.

Dont try and beat the market as it is impossible but piggy back the big boys. If you have a system you think is the holy grail and noone else knows it then you are doomed. Go with the obvious trades as thousands of traders round the world will be looking at the same screen you are and will see the same trades.

Keep an eye on news releases as these skew data and best to stay out for an hour or two.

Keep charts clean, too many indicators cloud everything and keep away from small timeframes, 1hr is the absolute minimum for me and even this gives you lots of noise.

50 Fib and round numbers (00) are the only indicators I use.

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Spoke to a guy who's in trouble with his mortgage. About 60 years old, nice chap, upbeat. He bought in 2002, with second wife. He owes £275k + £80k on a second charge, property on market for £355k quick sale. £14k in arrears, monthly instalments over £1k. Term expires in less than a year.

He has a failing franchise, but wants to keep the house because the projected earnings will cover it. Also said he expects to earn enough through forex dealing. Wha? You mean spread betting? Yes, I've been watching the market for a couple of years and now I have a system for currency pairs. Just started to use it, and I get updates every morning. I won't be greedy, just playing the volatility. Problem is my broadband goes down regularly and I have to restart the computer ...

I covered my eyes. Couldn't watch.

I think it's safe to say this man failed his decision making O level.

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  • 312 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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