Have Your Plans Changed?

[Guest_FaFa!_*]

I was ill for a few years. Without meaning to sound dramatic there was a time, a time when I spent a great deal of time on this forum, when I did not think I was going to make it.

I have no family. No relatives.

If it was not for the small group of wonderful friends I have here in Swansea I would not be sat here now typing this.

I am therefore accutely aware of the importance of friends and of having a 'support network'. It is not until you are faced with such drastic things in life that you realise how important such people are.

My plan is to buy and then use my home as a base to go away and do IT contracts overseas. I will have my home and my friends to come home to.

Amen to that.

If you are buying in the knowledge of the downside risks which are that

(i) your house may halve in value

(ii) interest rates will rise

(iii) you maybe unable to move if you need to

then why not go for it? I think people on this website sometimes have to understand that there is a difference between buying blindly and assuming the best and buying whilst knowing the worse may happen. Only you know what is best for you and what your personal circumstances are. Best of luck with your decision, whatever it is.

As for the OP's question not much has changed for me, in terms of the way I view the market. House prices will come down to a level where they are supported by wages. I don't see the inflation argument working, as wages would need to rise in tandem with inflation for it to apply. They aren't and they won't.

[Bruce Banner]

my plans change all the time....depends largely onhow much work I have.

At the mo, its very quiet, yet to telephone enquiries today....was in Swansea on Monday, got lost, and left.....seafog obscured the whole place.

Last time I flew there I had to use GPS to find the bloody airfield.

[Bloo Loo]

Amen to that.

If you are buying in the knowledge of the downside risks which are that

(i) your house may halve in value

(ii) interest rates will rise

(iii) you maybe unable to move if you need to

then why not go for it? I think people on this website sometimes have to understand that there is a difference between buying blindly and assuming the best and buying whilst knowing the worse may happen. Only you know what is best for you and what your personal circumstances are. Best of luck with your decision, whatever it is.

As for the OP's question not much has changed for me, in terms of the way I view the market. House prices will come down to a level where they are supported by wages. I don't see the inflation argument working, as wages would need to rise in tandem with inflation for it to apply. They aren't and they won't.

you cant take it with you.

be it cash, house, car, dog.

[The Masked Tulip]

my plans change all the time....depends largely on how much work I have.

At the mo, its very quiet, yet two telephone enquiries today already....was in Swansea on Monday, got lost, and left.....seafog obscured the whole place.

the Hotel we stayed in was busy Saturday and Sunday...Monday there was one other party there....The recession is hitting the private sector and the growth expected by the Chancellor is NOT coming...unless the Government borrow more to offset the losses....

Which hotel did you stay in? Was it a chain or a locally owned one?

Just asking as you have posted a few times about the fog on Monday last but I remember clear blue skies and sunshine, myself going for a cycle along the sea-front and basking in how warm it was.

[campervanman]

With what seems like the new government trying to prop up house prices as much as Labour did, has this changed your plans?

If it is going to take another 2-4 years, will you wait? Will you give in and join the party? Will you leave the country? Any other option?

If after a year of real austerity (say this time next year) prices havn't fallen significantly further then I think you can say that they won't, at least nominally, unless there is something really big coming down the track (world war/deepening of the global food/energy crisis or both), in which case you'll probably have more important things to think about than how much UK house prices will fall.

[Bloo Loo]

Which hotel did you stay in? Was it a chain or a locally owned one?

Just asking as you have posted a few times about the fog on Monday last but I remember clear blue skies and sunshine, myself going for a cycle along the sea-front and basking in how warm it was.

We stayed near crickhowell. Wouldnt call 13C very warm...that is double overcoat weather for Mrs Loo, and the fog at Swansea meant she werent getting out..no way.

Went to the National Botanical place on Monday then along the coast road and saw a sign for a national waterfront museum.

Followed the signs into Swansea ( about 4PM), Tom Tom said take a few turns but I tried to follw the route the signs set.. they signs ended...I got lost. Ended up in a dock with all newbuilds on it.

Climbed back out of Swansea into sunshine and drove accross beautiful country back to Crickhowell.

The only thing was the lack of pubs....but, the hedges were just about 100% trimmed down low, although many main roads were strewn with rubbish...very noticeable as we crossed the border Saturday.

Highly recommend the Big Pit...

[erranta]

Last time I flew there I had to use GPS to find the bloody airfield.

Very nice of them - I can just imagine them in their white coats guiding you in with their auriscopes!

[fadeaway]

Yes, it has reinforced my decision to buy a property today.

Brand new 3-bed 3-story 20 mins from the city center and railway station, Over 1100 sqft of space, 2 driveways and a nice garden.

First listed on Zoopla for £184,995 on 27th Feb 2010 (This is for the terraced version, the end of terrace is £4,000 more at £188,995)

I will be purchasing the end of terrace version for £161,500 with £2,300 of free carpeting throughout and £2,000 worth of free ceramic tiling for the bathrooms, kitchen and hallway.

5 year fixed at 4.79% with free valuation, £195 fee and £250 cashback. (I have 25% deposit). At the rate me and my partner earn money, the mortgage will be halved by the time the fix is up, so I am not worried about future rate rises.

£27,500 discount from the original paper price plus 3-4k worth of free flooring.

Or roughly 16-17% off the paper price.

The same design houses 2 yards away all sold for 180k+.

Combined with a great interest rate and my stamp duty break for the rest of the year, I think this is better than waiting 2-3 years for a 40% price crash. My life is not worth putting on hold for the difference of 20k or so. My partner wants a house, I want to make her happy. Sometimes we have to make sacrifices,

Edited March 24, 2011 by fadeaway

[The Masked Tulip]

We stayed near crickhowell. Wouldnt call 13C very warm...that is double overcoat weather for Mrs Loo, and the fog at Swansea meant she werent getting out..no way.

Went to the National Botanical place on Monday then along the coast road and saw a sign for a national waterfront museum.

Followed the signs into Swansea ( about 4PM), Tom Tom said take a few turns but I tried to follw the route the signs set.. they signs ended...I got lost. Ended up in a dock with all newbuilds on it.

Climbed back out of Swansea into sunshine and drove accross beautiful country back to Crickhowell.

The only thing was the lack of pubs....but, the hedges were just about 100% trimmed down low, although many main roads were strewn with rubbish...very noticeable as we crossed the border Saturday.

Highly recommend the Big Pit...

So you drove all the way from Crickhowell to within just 10 minutes of Europe's first designated area of outstanding natural beauty but you got lost and missed the very thing that thousands of people visit Swansea for each year.

PMSL.

[the stig]

I have to say that given the huge numbers being thrown around in the media, which makes my oustanding mortgage seem insignificant, the current dislike i have for my job when i've got better, more meaningful things to be getting on with, i'm seriously considering taking a few years off work. Then maybe i'll retrain, maybe i'll just doss about.

Not to mention the extension of SMI for yet another year. The blatant backing of BTL with the reduction of stamp duty payable on bulk purchases was one of those typical cough-cough bits of the budget speech that was said quickly and lost amongst other headline grabbers.

All-in-all, why should i bother?!

[Guest]

Yes my plans have changed, I was thinking that I would buy a property one day if they returned to sensible prices. Now it look more likely that I'll rent forever (and don't believe in the 'have to buy one day, otherwise you'll rent forever and that is a waste of money' theory, so it doesn't really bother me that much).

[Bloo Loo]

So you drove all the way from Crickhowell to within just 10 minutes of Europe's first designated area of outstanding natural beauty but you got lost and missed the very thing that thousands of people visit Swansea for each year.

PMSL.

Well, it was 4PM, and we'd been walking all day.

and foggy.

[Constable]

Yes, it has reinforced my decision to buy a property today.

Brand new 3-bed 3-story 20 mins from the city center and railway station, Over 1100 sqft of space, 2 driveways and a nice garden.

First listed on Zoopla for £184,995 on 27th Feb 2010 (This is for the terraced version, the end of terrace is £4,000 more at £188,995)

I will be purchasing the end of terrace version for £161,500 with £2,300 of free carpeting throughout and £2,000 worth of free ceramic tiling for the bathrooms, kitchen and hallway.

5 year fixed at 4.79% with free valuation, £195 fee and £250 cashback. (I have 25% deposit). At the rate me and my partner earn money, the mortgage will be halved by the time the fix is up, so I am not worried about future rate rises.

£27,500 discount from the original paper price plus 3-4k worth of free flooring.

Or roughly 16-17% off the paper price.

The same design houses 2 yards away all sold for 180k+.

Combined with a great interest rate and my stamp duty break for the rest of the year, I think this is better than waiting 2-3 years for a 40% price crash. My life is not worth putting on hold for the difference of 20k or so. My partner wants a house, I want to make her happy. Sometimes we have to make sacrifices,

I understand your motivations and fair enough if you really want to own a new build house. Personally I think they're a decent renting option, but I wouldn't want to own a cheaply built bland house that might fall down before the mortgage is paid off! No offence intended. Where in the country are you?

Out of interest what variable rate mortgage deal could you get? IMO the talk of interest rate rises is in the banks' interest as they are gonna do much better from people on fixed rates. I don't think base rates are going above 2% for the next 10 years, unless it is forced on them.

[silver surfer]

I was ill for a few years. Without meaning to sound dramatic there was a time, a time when I spent a great deal of time on this forum, when I did not think I was going to make it.

Sorry to hear that. Hope you're fully recovered now.

[Tenubracon]

you cant take it with you.

be it cash, house, car, dog.

You can take the dog if you make like a pharaoh.

[Democorruptcy]

I am actively looking now and will buy.

I am worse off financially than last year. I have paid more rent.

There are less houses on the market in my price range than last year. There is a dearth of such properties coming to the market.

What does come to the market often comes on for 50K to 70K asking price more than similar houses were doing last year.

Given the delusional aspect of house prices it will be months or a year for most of these people to even take 10K off their ludicrous asking prices.

We are in the 1970s now. Inflation is running riot and they are inflating away the debt of the feckless who ramped up house prices. My house buying fund is being wrecked by inflation.

No, I do not wish to risk it in shares, commodities, gold or anything else.

The UK does not care about the prudent. It rewards the feckless and it is about time we all waked up and realised it.

I never understand that thinking. If it's a house buying fund then it can only be wrecked by HPI. Other price inflation is just leaving people with less money to support HPI.

As to this FTB deposit scheme I think it's very wrong because it's giving money to housebuilders and saying to people don't save just be feckless and the state will help you.

What it does to house prices depends on sentiment. If people see it as a prop for house prices and rush to buy then prices could go up. However why should it actually increase prices? It is the death of 10,000 chains and could starve the market of it's lifeblood. These FTBs can only buy a new build and cannot afford to sell until they can to pay back the 20% deposit. That's 10,000 FTBs who won't be buying a house that would lead to more sales.

[Jack's Creation]

No change here.

I'm happy renting.

Prices will fall in stages as reality starts to bite and the sheeple/media realise that the property boom is OVER and is not coming back.

Things have changed forever re employment, wages and stardards of living because of globalisation (the affects of which were masked for many years by the biggest credit bubble in history).

Unemployment is the only thing that will be booming over the next 10 years.

I might buy a place one day, or I might go abroad.

The only chance of me buying in the next few years is if we get a hyperinflation - then I'll exchange precious metals for property when there is blood on the streets as Rothschild advised.

Keep the faith HPCers.

+1

A perfect summation of the current UK situation.

[silver surfer]

Yes, my plans have changed.

I STR'd in 2005 and have been renting since. I've been holding out for very substantial falls, similar to what we saw in the 1989/95 crash. Now I think falls on this scale will be mainly limited to flats and high unemployment areas. Renting was okay while I've been working in London, but I'm one of the fortunate baby boomers with a gold plated company pension, and I'll soon be taking early retirement and heading to the south coast to spend more time sailing. Consequently I will be buying sometime this year.

But my plans have changed in another aspect as well. I'm lucky to have the resources to make a meaningful distinction between the biggest house I can afford and the smallest house I need. Instead of buying the biggest house I'll be buying the smallest that still meets my brief. The reason is that I still think that property will be a lousy investment over the next few decades, drifting sideways for years and years. Without a return to easy credit (and that won't happen in my lifetime) there'll be no house price boom. Consequently I want the minimum amount of my money invested in bricks and mortar, while still wanting the freedom to decorate and alter a property any way I want, something I can only get with ownership.

Edited March 24, 2011 by silver surfer

[Bruce Banner]

Yes, my plans have changed.

I STR'd in 2005 and have been renting since. I've been holding out for very substantial falls, similar to what we saw in the 1989/95 crash. Now I think falls on this scale will be mainly limited to flats and high unemployment areas. Renting was okay while I've been working in London, but I'm one of the fortunate baby boomers with a gold plated company pension, and I'll soon be taking early retirement and heading to the south coast to spend more time sailing. Consequently I will be buying sometime this year.

But my plans have changed in another aspect as well. I'm lucky to have the resources to make a meaningful distinction between the biggest house I can afford and the smallest house I need. Instead of buying the biggest house I'll be buying the smallest that still meets my brief. The reason is that I still think that property will be a lousy investment over the next few decades, drifting sideways for years and years. Without a return to easy credit (and that won't happen in my lifetime) there'll be no house price boom. Consequently I want the minimum amount of my money invested in bricks and mortar, while still wanting the freedom to decorate and alter a property any way I want, something I can only get with ownership.

I always detested decorating and maintenance so renting suits me perfectly .

[fadeaway]

I understand your motivations and fair enough if you really want to own a new build house. Personally I think they're a decent renting option, but I wouldn't want to own a cheaply built bland house that might fall down before the mortgage is paid off! No offence intended. Where in the country are you?

Out of interest what variable rate mortgage deal could you get? IMO the talk of interest rate rises is in the banks' interest as they are gonna do much better from people on fixed rates. I don't think base rates are going above 2% for the next 10 years, unless it is forced on them.

East anglia. Personally I've lived in a variety of new-builds, ranging from 500k+ to 140k 2-beds and never had a problem with any of them.

Quite a statement about rate rises there.

Other option was a 2.89% lifetime tracker (BoE + 2.39%) from HSBC. I'm still undecided between risking rate rises or just fixing for 5yr at 4.79%.

[The Masked Tulip]

But my plans have changed in another aspect as well. I'm lucky to have the resources to make a meaningful distinction between the biggest house I can afford and the smallest house I need. Instead of buying the biggest house I'll be buying the smallest that still meets my brief. The reason is that I still think that property will be a lousy investment over the next few decades, drifting sideways for years and years. Without a return to easy credit (and that won't happen in my lifetime) there'll be no house price boom. Consequently I want the minimum amount of my money invested in bricks and mortar, while still wanting the freedom to decorate and alter a property any way I want, something I can only get with ownership.

+1

In the past 6 weeks or so I have made a big change in the mindset of the type of house I am seeking.

Fuel costs, location close to a good Co-op within walking distance, near main bus route are increasingly important factors.

I keep looking on RM at houses which are enormous and which are on for ludicrous asking prices but which are knackered inside. Usually some old dear has gone into a home or passed on and the greedy inheritors come along wanting top dollar.

Such huge houses, I think, are increasingly unaffordable to run.

[General Congreve]

We are in the 1970s now. Inflation is running riot and they are inflating away the debt of the feckless who ramped up house prices. My house buying fund is being wrecked by inflation.

No, I do not wish to risk it in shares, commodities, gold or anything else.

The UK does not care about the prudent. It rewards the feckless and it is about time we all waked up and realised it.

Yes, they have chosen the path of record low interest rates, QE and inflation in order to inflate away government debt and prop up the housing market that is the supposed backbone of our broken economy. Unless there is a bond market meltdown, there is nothing that will change this. Even if the bond market tries to force the government's hand they will just QE and monetise more of our own debt to keep interest rates low, cue even more inflation.

Ask yourself this:

- Is inflation likely to fall back?

- Are the government likely to raise interest rates?

- If the government do rise interest rates, how long will it take for them to put them back into positive territory (needed to halt inflation). That's currently a 5.5% minimum from the current base rate of 0.5% (a rise of even 4 quarter points is neither here nor there in the scheme of things).

When you've taken time to think about the above, have a good think about your house fund sitting in sterling in the bank and then think about RISK.

To clarify, every tenner you have saved has lost 55 pence of it's purchasing power in the last year and inflation is accelerating.

Maybe I'm stupid, but I think I'll stick with my 'risky' gold.

Edited March 24, 2011 by General Congreve

[Patfig]

With what seems like the new government trying to prop up house prices as much as Labour did, has this changed your plans?

If it is going to take another 2-4 years, will you wait? Will you give in and join the party? Will you leave the country? Any other option?

Gonna leave again!!

[silver surfer]

- Is inflation likely to fall back?

- Are the government likely to raise interest rates?

- If the government do rise interest rates, how long will it take for them to put them back into positive territory (needed to halt inflation). That's currently a 5.5% minimum from the current base rate of 0.5% (a rise of even 4 quarter points is neither here nor there in the scheme of things).

1. Yes

2. Yes

3. 2013

[The Masked Tulip]

Yes, they have chosen the path of record low interest rates, QE and inflation in order to inflate away government debt and prop up the housing market that is the supposed backbone of our broken economy. Unless there is a bond market meltdown, there is nothing that will change this. Even if the bond market tries to force the government's hand they will just QE and monetise more of our own debt to keep interest rates low, cue even more inflation.

Ask yourself this:

- Is inflation likely to fall back?

- Are the government likely to raise interest rates?

- If the government do rise interest rates, how long will it take for them to put them back into positive territory (needed to halt inflation). That's currently a 5.5% minimum from the current base rate of 0.5% (a rise of even 4 quarter points is neither here nor there in the scheme of things).

When you've taken time to think about the above, have a good think about your house fund sitting in sterling in the bank and then think about RISK.

To clarify, every tenner you have saved has lost 55 pence of it's purchasing power in the last year and inflation is accelerating.

Maybe I'm stupid, but I think I'll stick with my 'risky' gold.

I agree with you. I just ain't in a position to be able to speculate large amounts of the funds I live on on shares, gold, commodities or the 4.30 at Epsom.

But everything else you say about inflation and IRs are spot on. We talk endlessly on here about IRs rising - ain't going to happen. OK, they might raise the odd 0.25% once of twice in the next 18 months but any other talk of sharp IRs rises is just talk. Not going to happen short of some kind of Sterling crisis.