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General Congreve

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Everything posted by General Congreve

  1. You are right, it is difficult making little, most likely a negative return on your investments, thanks to the criminal policies of the BoE and their counterparts elsewhere in the world.
  2. Yeah, sorry to be the bearer of bad news. Just please don't shoot the messenger.
  3. If the banks go bust though, will those savers still have savings to spend into the economy? Surely their savings will just end up in the hands of the banks creditors, who will then be the ones who get first bite of the cherry on depreciated assets. In a way this forced sale, although unjust, will help bring house prices down. So in their efforts to keep 'asset prices' high, meaning houses of course, not all assets, the BoE are being self-defeating. As the inflation just squeezes people from the other side, as evidenced by the OP. Really it seems the prudent will now gets shafted either way. As if they let it all go bust savers lose all their money through bank collapse and if they print to stop it going bust, savers ultimately lose all their money via inflation.
  4. Well done CheeznBreed. The truth on the BBC!
  5. A house is fine as an asset. Anything over 16k in savings and no money for you. It's a sliding scale of benefit payments from there onwards.
  6. And no one can blame you or legions in your position for thinking like this. I'd do the same in your shoes and feel justified in doing so. Unfortunately this is a big part of the reason we are going down, down, down and there will be no recovery. Loose monetary policy will continue ad infinitum, sterling will continue its century long fiat nose dive and more wealth will be stolen from the people of Britain that actually still have a job or are still accumulating savings in a bank account.
  7. Never heard that, brilliant. Might have to borrow it.
  8. Hey Red Karma, off-topic, but in a thread yesterday someone mentioned a poster who used to have the signature: All goldbugs will get creamed for exactly the reason they think they won't Am I right in thinking that was you? I'm only asking because no one knew what the reason for being creamed was. If it is you could you just quickly clarify please, as it caused much fluster and debate. Many Thanks.
  9. I am all for Progressive taxation. Progressive taxation backed by sound money that is. No more printing to pay for commitments (to buy votes) that causes inflation that hits the poorest hardest. Good honest money that can't be printed and holds it value, a pound in one year is the same as a pound in the next, no more government theft from the population. Get rid of regressive taxes like fuel duty and VAT that penalise the lowest earners. Tax progressively according to wealth and income only and redistribute via good public services for all - schools, police, nurses and a unemployment benefits that keep people, clothed, fed and warm, but don't give people the incentive never to look after themselves again etc. But 98%, is just f4cking stupid. I mean, seriously! Mind you, it'd be another positive for gold (as the rich hide more assets off balance sheet), as it was in the 70's.
  10. Indeed. We live in interesting times. What many don't think about is how during the last gold/silver bull run it was just the West taking part. Now billions of Chinese and hundreds of millions, if not billions, of others from former communist countries and BRIC countries with newly-earned wealth are in on the act. So there is vastly more people competing for what is, per head, much less gold than back then (when you take account of mined gold and population growth since then). Not the most important reason, but a notable one for why this ship is going to the moon.
  11. You get the VAT back when you sell if you do it privately, say via ebay. So that's not necessarily a problem. Agreed that the premium on that bad boy doesn't make it the best way to buy silver. The bulk of any purchase should be boring old bullion, because you are buying for the silver value, not the notional value, so bullion should be your first port of call. But still, I think you'll agree it's a nice addition to top off somebody's otherwise ordinary collection. First time I've heard of one or seen one BTW. BTW, you haven't missed the silver boat, not a by a long shot. It's on the march again after it's correction, now is still a good time to buy as it's nudging $40/Oz this week, it'll be hitting $50/Oz again soon and then much further beyond. QE3 ended and surprise, surprise, despite those that claimed that would pole axe silver and gold, they held there ground and are advancing once more. I recommend King World News for info on gold and silver. It will really give you the picture on a lot of what lies behind the gold/silver story, but in a very concise bite-sized way. Most of that stuff that does get talked about here sooner or laterobviously, but it's a nice little news feed that gets updated with a short article or two every day or two, all in one place (site can be a little sluggish though). I recommend you read it for a week, you should find it very enlightening. Also take a look at this if you haven't seen it yet, the relatively straight bits are when we were on the gold standard, the rest is history and the future: That money in the bank isn't going to grow and they'll keep QEing and ZIRPing to keep house price nominally high, while debauching the currency. They have to, as the governments now owns a huge chunk of the mortgages in the UK now, via the bailed out banks. This story is only going one way.
  12. If you're on the right side of the tracks, pun intended, then all this extra waste and debt that is pushing the UK and the world closer to the edge of insolvency - well closer to the fact that our current insolvency will be totally apparent - is something to welcome, rather than curse. After all, there is little we can do about it.
  13. No problem, peoples will be able to warm themselves against the chill by throwing bricks of worthless cash onto the fire.
  14. Maybe Fukushima will have another little wobble just before hand and you'll get a reprieve on the currency front. Fingers crossed
  15. I think the Chinese are partly hedging - getting rid of dollar assets to buy euro assets (as it might help a little depending how the chips fall) - and partly doing this to support their own export economy to Europe, thereby staving off the inevitable civil unrest that would follow from waves of factory closures and the inherent threat to the rule of the Communist Party that would bring. Like you say, tall these actions are chewing gum and bogies and are bound to fail, as whatever is done, the economies of the West are still one big unstable stinking pile of manure and the Chinese economy is built atop it.
  16. Inflation/devaluation isn't just good, it's plain brilliant!
  17. In this instance I'm inclined to agree. Housing might look like a good deal right now if purchased in gold. But because 99% are purchasing in fiat, which is suffering a squeeze both in its value vs. gold and in terms of peoples real disposable income thanks to inflation, then house prices, whether priced in gold or sterling, have much further to fall.
  18. Well, seems you've done your homework on the house front, and if you are self-employed in a niche industry, that is hopefully resistant to economic downturn, then you should fair OK. With regards to gold, the time to get out of housing and into gold was at its optimum point (to maximise financial returns from the two bull markets) in 2005, maybe that is what you are thinking of? Otherwise you might as well say the low in the early 2000's was actually the best time to get in as it was the lowest price. Who are all these people who want gold? I know of no one, bar one close friend who has followed the markets for a few years who has any, physical or paper. With the exception of him, it has never cropped up in conversation amongst friends or family. Hardly the bubble-like vibe that was felt with houses when every man and his dog in the office, BBQ's, parties, down the pub, was on about house prices. Where are all the gold investment programs? All I see is old peak market re-runs of 'Homes under the Hammer' on the TV. Sure there's the odd ad out there for BUYING it from people. But paying suckers below market rates for a valuable investment is the polar opposite to marketing and flogging gold by the bucket load to the unwashed masses. Seems the masses are only too happy to get rid of the stuff in return for a few bits of paper - no doubt to help pay a little bit of their share off the burgeoning debt bubble! The press have hardly picked up the mania. I have seen a couple of foot notes about it in the Sunday Times Money Section in the past year (I read the old man's copy occasionally) and they called it a bubble! Whereas just a few weeks back they were announcing it was time to get back into BTL on the front page Those that mistimed the last gold bull run were those piling in at the last minute. I am sitting on near 50% gains so far, so there is plenty of wiggle room for me. Not that we are anywhere near the peak. The 1980's peak came about because Paul Volcker raised interest rates to 20% to quell rampant inflation and dished out the economic pain the US needed to get back on track after it left the gold standard. This was a temporary fix of course, we are now back to square one in infinitely worse shape, having shot all the bullets in the fight against sound money. Had Volcker not acted, gold would have usurped the dollar back then and it would have been the dollar holders who mistimed. While real interest rates are negative gold ALWAYS goes up, this is historical fact. With real inflation nearer 10% than 5%, can you really see Merv putting up interest rates 20-fold to 10%+ to quell inflation? He wont even budge by 0.25%. And he is talking of more QE. Even if rates are forced up by the markets (this is what QE stops) or voluntarily raised to these heights, what will happen is bank, housing and economic collapse. In this scenario the govt. will be forced to devalue it's currency to meet its obligations or the markets will sell the currency and do it for them. In this scenario the currency fails and gold soars, see Iceland for details - currency down 69% vs. Euro, gold up 259% in Krona. With nearly the whole world up to it's eyes in this debt morass, there can only be one way this will play out. A bubble? No. The closest thing to a sure fire winner that most of us will see in our lifetime? Yes. Counter party risk is minimal. If you buy from a reputable dealer, research your coins/bullion properly etc. then risks are minimal compared to most other asset classes, e.g. oil ETF, pension fund, shares etc. Anyway, I'm not saying you've made an appalling decision, now I know some more facts, but you are most definitely wrong on gold IMO. Be interesting to check back in a year or two to compare notes.
  19. The Eurocrats are really running scared. The rating agencies are incompetent idiots, but still, on this occasion they are actually right. The whole charade reminds me of the disagreements that would crop up when playing 'army' with my mates when I was a small lad: Rating's Agency - "Bang, Bang, you're dead!" Eurocrats - "No I'm not, you missed!" Rating's Agency - "No, I didn't I shot you in the head!" Eurocrats - "Liar! I'm not playing any more!"
  20. "Markets can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent" - Someone famous once said that and in the case of our resident capitulators, I think he was right. Like I said though, a house with a modest mortgage might just still be a better bet than cash.
  21. It's not just about getting as positive return on investment. Of course, that will be a welcome bonus, but the main reason for holding gold is not to lose your shirt. I too, want to have a (bigger) home, that I can raise a family in, but I realise the best way to go about that right now, isn't to put up cash as collateral and get myself a big mortgage that is prey to interest rate rises in the future. The best way is to put my cash in gold, watch it grow, while at the same time watching house prices slide. When the time is right, BLAM, BLAM!!! The old one two! Gold up + house prices down = Much cheaper house.
  22. I see, you've been in gold and silver before. Of course, yes, electronic gold, ETC's, ETF's, essentially paper gold, are not worth the risk and you have been at the sharp end with Lehman on that score. There will be much more of that to come in the future. Yes, physical gold has to be secured somewhere. This may involve security deposit boxes, safes, even a bit of midnight gardening! However, the effort will be worth it not to see your wealth vapourise in an Icesave-style bust - I got my money out of there 2 days before - but thanks go out ot Gordo for returning me my outstanding interest at tax payers expense. Like I said in my previous post, you're not taking a HUGE risk, but it is still a fairly decent risk, because it hinges on you keeping your job in what will soon be a depression IMO. IMO the only thing bubblicous about gold is all the bubble nonsense talk about it. Gold is millennia-old currency and still today, de facto currency, so can only float upwards as the dollar, euro, pound etc. sink, as they are prone to do, either via more money printing devaluing these currencies and/or through economic collapse leading to a devaluation of these currencies. It is not gold in the bubble, but debt-backed fiat currencies, gold is not so much rising (although it is in part as people rush to it for safety) as fiat currencies are falling. So, I'm interested as to why you think gold is a bubble set to burst?
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