Daily Mail Eventually Publishes Our Hpc Graphs

[Doesn't Commute Anymore]

House prices falling £40 a day as most of the gains in the last 12 months are wiped out

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1334612/House-prices-fall-wiping-gains-year.html

I've always maintained that The Daily Mail is the best barometer of sentiment in UK housing - faithfully telling the middle classess what they want to hear - as long as it sells as many covers as possible.

We have now reached the fulcrum point where middle england would rather see facts (HPC graphs) than hear the denial (estate agent VI talk). Look at these charts, familiar to us all, but now available from a Daily Mail url!!!!!

"Old faithful"

"Spot the cyclical pattern, anyone?"

"Real, yes real, decline from peak"

Beautiful to see! Moreover, the text has a bear/bull/bear paragraph structure, not the bull/bear/bull sandwich typically used to 'up-spin' negative news.

Edited December 1, 2010 by Diet Cola Addict

[Kilham]

House prices have bounced back up more often than the bad guy in a cheap slasher but this time I really get the feeling this sucker is going down.

[The Masked Tulip]

this time I really get the feeling this sucker is going down.

Why? What is different now?

[Kilham]

Just a feeling that things are becoming more bearish, probably coupled with a great deal of wishful thinking as I'm sick and tired of waiting.

[rantnrave]

They've just cut and pasted the graphs from the Nationwide release...?

When they post the lifecycle of a bubble chart, then I'll be impressed (turns to watch pig fly pass window).

[rantnrave]

Why? What is different now?

IMO it's the credit situation. Even if the uninformed want to buy at inflated prices, as they have for most of the last decade, the banks aren't lending like they did. Put differently, the party was in full swing and someone just took away the punch bowl. People stay merry for a little while longer and then reality sets in - the women there are all ugly hoofers and the host has a shocking taste in music.

*edited for extra sarcasm*

Edited December 1, 2010 by rantnrave

[Harry Monk]

The majority of HPC'ers live in a totally different world to my little working-class existence, but I was laid off in June and everybody else I know is being laid off left right and centre at the moment.

It's only next year that all the the public sector people will get laid off because we, the trash, don't pay tax any more so their wages can't be paid out of our tax any more.

Next year will be when the reality kicks in- house prices aren't going up any time soon!

[guitarman001]

Just LOOK at the average price of a house back between 2000-2002. That to me represents a little more sanity.

[Pent Up]

So we are the same position as Dec 08, and prices will start to soar again in Feb 11. Two more months of falls softening or easing of prices before the recover starts.

Nope, we are Dec 07. The second peak was summer 2010 we are in for another 14 months of this...

[RichB]

Why? What is different now?

Tis a new paradigm now, surely. The value of houses only ever goes down. Everyone knows that in the long term you will always lose out on property.

[Fishbone Glover]

Just LOOK at the average price of a house back between 2000-2002. That to me represents a little more sanity.

Yes, sickening isn't it! Give the oft quoted average salary of 26K - ish, £100K average house price seems quite sensible to me, and I think it's where we're headed. Eventually.

[guitarman001]

Here's hoping....... stupidly I put some money in house builders hoping the share price would pick up but they keep going down, down, down. Taken my money out, back into a safe bank account, and doing some tough saving (e.g. being a Scrooge) in prep for the collapse. My timeframe to buy is after 2 years or so.

Let's hope prices come down and STAY down without speculators swooping in and buying up cheap properties.

[the_duke_of_hazzard]

Tis a new paradigm now, surely. The value of houses only ever goes down. Everyone knows that in the long term you will always lose out on property.

The SLS is ending. That's what changing. The recovery in prices can be traced to the SLS scheme's setting up, and the dropping off of credit supply has hardened since it became clear the BoE was not going to keep the scheme going.

The BoE gets maligned on here for not raising rates, but in effect SLS not continuing is them tightening the screws far more than a simple rise in rates. It's perhaps why they're nervous about upping rates now.

[Giordano Bruno]

Why? What is different now?

VI ramping fatigue. The horse is dead, time to stop flogging the poor thing.

[erranta]

Just LOOK at the average price of a house back between 2000-2002. That to me represents a little more sanity.

Everyone is fixated on the prices - but it's the interest rates aswell which decide how much is affordable.

What will they be in 2 yrs?

Will any young pro's have paid off their student debts (decreasing third world type jobs and pay even if they can get a proper job) and saved a hefty deposit within 10 yrs?

Housing if left alone will become peanuts to buy.

[guitarman001]

Tell you guys what - if this isn't it, it will never happen. Given EVERYTHING that's going on, these have to be the WORST conditions for decades...

I believe prices will fall and that a great many other predictions from this site regarding macro-economics on the world stage will be played out.

For me, this is it. Next two years - crunch time for whether or not this is going to happen.

[guitarman001]

Everyone is fixated on the prices - but it's the interest rates aswell which decide how much is affordable.

What will they be in 2 yrs?

Will any young pro's have paid off their student debts (decreasing third world type jobs and pay even if they can get a proper job) and saved a hefty deposit within 10 yrs?

Housing if left alone will become peanuts to buy.

I hear you. I'm trying to pay off my loan somewhat myself (£23k savings, £14k student loan left, paying £300 a month, saving ~£600 a month, minus a few months considering holiday and car maintenance).

SOME people are catching on - I've heard of SO many young people like myself moving back home so they can save a deposit up (if they're able to move back home!).

I hope it comes to peanuts like you say.

This is pretty sad, but often I'm on the phone to a friend who thinks the same and I make sure that I'm heard talking about how prices are crashing hard. Usually people don't bat an eyelid but at least it feels like I'm doing SOMETHING (I also regularly talk about this sort of thing to colleagues, friends etc).

I'd rather have a £100k mortgage with 10% rate for a few years than a £200k mortgage with 3% rate!

[PbroAgent]

The bubble was fuelled by an irresponsible increase in mortgage lending, i.e. 5x income, 120% LTV deals. Now that these deals are no longer available, people simply can't afford the overinflated prices.

Prices will continue to fall until the average house price is available to an average buyer getting an average (and responsible) mortgage. This is still a long way away.

[guitarman001]

I think it MAY have been HSBC or Bank of Scotland who are going to allow a friend of mine on £30k (whose job was under threat last year) a £185k mortgage and all he needed was a £20k deposit.

Doesn't sound like responsible lending has fully come back...

[Giordano Bruno]

I think it MAY have been HSBC or Bank of Scotland who are going to allow a friend of mine on £30k (whose job was under threat last year) a £185k mortgage and all he needed was a £20k deposit.

Doesn't sound like responsible lending has fully come back...

That wouldn't be a liar loan, of course.

I know that they are still happening. Can't say anymore.

[Realistbear]

Why? What is different now?

Nothing is different. Same old cycle--boom and....................................................bust.

[Doesn't Commute Anymore]

Doesn't sound like responsible lending has fully come back...

Even if irresponsible lending practices return, the appetite of Joe Public for huge unaffordable loans is now dying.

This is true, even at current record low interest rates.

People know there are bad times ahead and don't want to commit to future promises. We are past the "it will return to normal soon" stage.

Also, everyone knows housing market liquidity has dried up.

[rantnrave]

Even if irresponsible lending practices return, the appetite of Joe Public for huge unaffordable loans is now dying.

This is true, even at current record low interest rates.

People know there are bad times ahead and don't want to commit to future promises. We are past the "it will return to normal soon" stage.

Also, everyone knows housing market liquidity has dried up.

If that is true, folk around where you live are a heck of a lot more clued-up than where I am. I have a colleague who can't wait to buy because they think renting is dead money. Elsewhere, a friend still thinks property is the best investment against inflation out there (even though they've become accidental landlords after moving to this area). He was absolutely gobsmacked when I told him that YoY growth figures were about to turn negative. I've considered sending him a link to this site, but he would dismiss it immediately and I might lose a good friend! It will take a plane flying the banner of falling hps to be in the sky all day everyday to change views here.

Anyone who is aware that all is not rosy in the housing market shrugs it off with 'happens every year at this time and it will all bounce back in the Spring...'

[WiseBear]

Yes, good looking charts.

I still believe at some point we will get hit by the BTL tsunami.

5% monthly drops anyone?

[erranta]

Even if irresponsible lending practices return, the appetite of Joe Public for huge unaffordable loans is now dying.

This is true, even at current record low interest rates.

People know there are bad times ahead and don't want to commit to future promises. We are past the "it will return to normal soon" stage.

Also, everyone knows housing market liquidity has dried up.

Paying Billions more to Bankers in Interest and fees just sucks money out of the economy into one tiny uber greedy City sector to pay off their bonuses.

Meanwhile, thousands of small businesses go bust needlessly around the UK due to less expenditure, putting more people out of work, reducing tax take > rinse and repeat until people are not handing vast sums to bankers/landlords in order to get a roof over their heads.

Edited December 2, 2010 by erranta