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House Price Crash Forum

WiseBear

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Everything posted by WiseBear

  1. Could be. It depends. Low rates could boost property prices or more money could trigger inflation fears and send interest rates higher and property lower. It's all down to perception.
  2. Australia in comparison: Sydney to Newcastle (Newcastle is NSW's second largest city at a distance of about 100 miles) Adult return £9.90 Off-peak return £6.60 Pensioner return (anytime) £1.40 But we now have the Opal card (equivalent to an Oyster card in London) so don't expect to pay this much
  3. I always like charts that correlate well to history and appear to be a good indicator of the future. This one caught my eye as being particularly interesting although I'd like to see more history. What do you think? Any other good "future predicting" charts?
  4. The global bond market will decide when interest rates will rise. The bond market is larger than both the property market and the stock market. At the moment the bond market sees significant future deflation and is priced accordingly. Stock markets and Property markets are currently responding to the low interest rates with a total disregard of why they are low. Who is right? Governments like to pretend that they set interest rates – they don’t.
  5. Yes, very funny. You haven't dealt with many estate agents have you?
  6. You seem somehwat confused - the debts on a banks balance sheet ARE the assets. They are matched by the liabilities which is the massive void from which credit is created plus the banks capital. The problem is when those debts are not repaid, and they won't be, it's the banks capital that gets hit first.
  7. Agreed. One way or another we will get austerity because there's no other option. If you continuously spend more than your income someday this will jump up and bite you on the ****. It's just a question of how austerity is applied and who the winners and losers are. Whether it's cost cutting or higher taxes & deficit spending or inflation or deflation it doesn't matter someone has to repay the debt.
  8. It should be obvious to anyone that living beyond your means is the best way to solve the problems created by living beyond your means.
  9. The UK is caught in a death grip - trapped between peak oil and a government intent on destroying the currency. Even without the UK's massive debt burden it's in big, big trouble. It's a sad end to a great nation.
  10. The fear of a deflationary collapse is massive. This will do nothing to prevent the inevetiable.
  11. It depends. The interest rate is made up of the risk free rate plus inflation expectation so as inflation rises so will interest rates but probably not as you'd expect. People still remember when UK inflation hit 26% but interest rates only reached 18% giving a large negative real rate and property prices also rose in real terms. Interest rates weren't higher because inflation was expected to ease and it did however it could have gone the other way and interest rates could have gone over 30% in which case property would have crashed. The hyper-inflation in Weimar Germany saw the price of property soar in DM but crash in real terms to close to nil. There was a thread on this a long while ago that's worth a revisit because people don't realise just how badly property does when the entire economy gets crushed.
  12. Down 0.6% last month and down 0.9% this month. That's a 2 month average of fall of 0.75% and 9.4% annualised. Not too bad I suppose - sure to accelerate from here
  13. Yes, but everyone knows it can't be paid back. The financial markets will target the likes of Greece, Portugal first then move onto Spain, Italy, France and finally the UK with the others all collapsing alone the way. It's going to get very messy. Just because the UK is not at the front of the queue I wouldn't say it was low risk. Because, like me and almost everyone else, you are a slave. You work others get the benefit - easy really. Because that's the system. It's always been the same and will never change. Kick the scum out of power if you like but the next lot will be exactly the same. When talking about pain, when a politician says "we" he means you. When talking about gain, when a politician says "we" he means them.
  14. Certainly, even for Aussie wages when compared to the UK. I sold my house and emmigrated in 2007. Getting out at the top of the UK property market and getting A$ at $2.50 made it worthwhile but I'm still renting here because property is in a big bubble. $9 (£6) for a beer by the harbour in Sydney and that's not a pint. Returned to UK this summer for a visit and the family went on a mad buying spree because the UK seemed so cheap. It seemed very strange seeing things in the supermarket priced in just pence. Yes but the bits that arn't are massive. Waestern Australia alone is bigger than the whole of Western Europe and the uninhabitable bits are resource rich. Not really. Sydney gets more rain than London (especially this week). True. Didn't really notice at first but it's true. True again but people jump on the plane like Brits use the bus. Seems odd now that I never went to say Sweden or Ireland in 40 years of living in UK yet people here fly from say Sydney to Melbourne for the day on a regualr basis. Various a lot. $3 (£2) a kilo maybe 2 years ago then before Yasi $0.79 (50p) a kilo was possible. After Yasi about $18 (£12) kilo. Some shops have signs in the window saying "No cash or bananas left on the premesis overnight". Red backs are fine - seen a few but we ignore each other. Huntsmen can be big and fast (and hairy) but generally ok. We had one once and left it to roam the house as it eats cockroaches (and small children ). Never see a funnel web and hope I never do - scary. Never seen a snake but heard lots of stories. Same with sharks & jellyfish. Yes unbelievable amounts of this stuff. Australia is already the richest country on earth according to a recent study. The future looks bright if we (notice the 'we' now) can keep hold of it. It will be a rocky ride though - Aus will get smashed again in another GFC. Yes, we now have dual citizenship - it's going to be increasingly important in the future to have options in my opinion. Ideally when retired we'll do 6 months in UK and 6 months in Aus. (or maybe I'm just dreaming).Which country is best? Both are great but in different ways but both also have their problems. I won't chose one over the other but ultimately it comes down to how much money you have (unfortunately).
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