Nationwide - Uk House Prices Fall Again In Nov

[Constable]

Tiny fall but it's the sentiment change that is all important.

The homeowning sheeple are so used to rising prices that sustained falls, however small in nominal terms, will increasingly force them to accept the new reality - that property is doomed as an investment class.

"It's the hope that kills you, not the disappointment".

[Constable]

BBC

So so close now to YoY -ve

Could a clever person do a version of this graph adjusted for inflation (RPI)?

The BBC should publish both graphs so that the people realise how the tax of inflation is killing their beloved property "investments".

[exiges]

Tiny fall but it's the sentiment change that is all important.

True.. although it's death by a thousand cuts. If there were solid drops over 1% each month people would try to get out quick before it falls much further. As it stands, with 0.3% here or there people don't see it as significant.. and certainly not significant enough to upset their mortgage deal they won't be able to transfer easily.

[N1AK]

.3% is a little low, but a fall is a fall.

Rather a steady trickle, and a slow turning of sentiment than the -3.x% figure we had a while back and then positive the next month.

0.3% a month is still -3.6% averaged over a year, consider the 4% inflation and your talking about houses being worth nearly 8% (£13k) less in real terms in a year. I think anyone expecting more than 15% actual drops is likely to be dissapointed...

[Democorruptcy]

That is interesting. The cynic in me would think something else. If you had been getting heat from the PCC about complaints on certain articles to do with a one sided view of house prices and the use of misleading figures - what would be a good way to prove you had no such one sided view...

A temporary blip then?

The top ramper is on form today, Jill Insley's headline "House price declines easing off".

House prices continued to fall during November, but at a much slower rate than during the property slump in 2008, according to figures released by Nationwide building society today.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/money/2010/dec/01/nationwide-house-prices-fall

[rantnrave]

0.3% a month is still -3.6% averaged over a year, consider the 4% inflation and your talking about houses being worth nearly 8% (£13k) less in real terms in a year. I think anyone expecting more than 15% actual drops is likely to be dissapointed...

Good point. Even more so if we take the quarterly rate which is -1.5%. That's 6% a year give or take with 4% inflation and so a drop of 10% a year in real terms!

[Timm]

Nationwide figures (nominal)

Nov 10: 163,398

Feb 09 (recent trough): 147,746

Oct 07 (peak): 186,044

May 04: 149,020

So we're 12% off the peak. To return to the recent trough in nominal terms needs a fall of a further 9.6%. Any bigger fall would put us back to April 04 prices.

It's going to be a lost decade I think. 2004 - 2014, HPI = 0%.

Could a clever person do a version of this graph adjusted for inflation (RPI)?

The BBC should publish both graphs so that the people realise how the tax of inflation is killing their beloved property "investments".

I think Freetrader keeps one up to date.

Though I think he does it for Halifax only.

[Caveat Mortgagor]

Just been looking at the figures to see what would need to happen in Dec to bring the YOY change down to 0%.

I noticed that last december, the avge price fell by £660 and due to the seasonal adjustment this was reported as a 0.4% increase in prices.

Edited December 1, 2010 by Caveat Mortgagor

[Selling up]

It's going to be a lost decade I think. 2004 - 2014, HPI = 0%.

Sounds about right.

[winkie]

Slowly deflating.

[Peter Hun]

Nationwide figures (nominal)

Nov 10: 163,398

Feb 09 (recent trough): 147,746

Oct 07 (peak): 186,044

May 04: 149,020

So we're 12% off the peak. To return to the recent trough in nominal terms needs a fall of a further 9.6%. Any bigger fall would put us back to April 04 prices.

Inflation adjusted its down 19% .

http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2010/12/01/423111/homeowners-luckier-this-time/

[NEO72]

Probably worth pointing out that at the same stage (ie November) at the start of HPC Mk 1, the 3 M-O-M figure was +1.4%. It wasn't until spring that things really got going (probably all the extra sellers who'd been waiting for the spring bounce ).

Of course what we'll actually hear from the VIs are comparisons with the height of the last one (ie late 2008) to make us think that this time it'll be OK