Ireland Going Bankrupt and the Bailout consequences

[Sledgehead]

[eric pebble]

Of course, both Ireland and the UK have really been undone by their banking industries which have essentially single handed bankrupted both nations.

YUP ---- with

PREDATORY LIAR LOANS.

That is what did it.

[eric pebble]

BBC finance reporter says Ireland are in trouble, not because of overspending, but large private debt and banks failing to get paid.

NOT THE HOUSING BUBBLE.

Er...... nope.

DEBT. PRIVATE DEBT. MORTGAGE DEBT.

LIAR LOAN DEBT.

[_w_]

Is this real?

[Traktion]

Is this real?

Aye - it was on Newsnight too.

[_w_]

Aye - it was on Newsnight too.

Bl**dy heck!

This is the first piece of accurate reporting on the crisis since it started two years ago. We're getting there!

[stormymonday_2011]

Reading the attached thread on the propertypin it looks as though a full blown bank run in Ireland is probably only hours away

http://www.thepropertypin.com/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=34479

The average Irish punter is now thoroughly spooked

The question is whether this is actually being engineered or is it spontaneous

The PIMCO article and certain other stories I have seen suggests this pot is deliberately being stirred to get it to boil.

Just starting to wonder............

[_w_]

The question is whether this is actually being engineered or is it spontaneous

The PIMCO article and certain other stories I have seen suggests this pot is deliberately being stirred to get it to boil.

Just starting to wonder............

Thank God for your post. I was beginning to believe I was completely nuts. This whole crisis / pseudo panic thing looks like it is completely engineered.

[maxdiver]

I can't say that I'm happy about these events in Ireland.

But as an Irishman in exile in the UK - I can only say that it was predicted by myself and the few journalists/economists of note in Ireland.

Thanks HPC - it's been a very informative 5 years on this site (I had a previous log-on).

If the economic miracles of Europe have fallen (Eire, Lativa, Portugal, Greece....) - who knows which emperor's clothes will fall next.

The world is a very strange place - and the world of business is corrupt, tariffed and subsidised: and we can't expect to make a living from house prices alone.

[Captain Cavey]

It's getting pretty ugly and some malcontents are getting personal.

Tratiors ?

[Giordano Bruno]

Tratiors ?

Whatever a tratior is, I wouldn't like to be one, I'm sure.

[yellerkat]

Is this real?

Aye - it was on Newsnight too.

And an excellent one from last week in case you missed it:

ED: sp

Edited November 24, 2010 by yellerkat

[interestrateripoff]

Thank God for your post. I was beginning to believe I was completely nuts. This whole crisis / pseudo panic thing looks like it is completely engineered.

To bring forth a global single currency? Which no doubt would generate huge profits for those banks involved in issuing it?

[Dave Spart]

from jsmineset.com

http://jsmineset.com/

[SHERWICK]

To bring forth a global single currency? Which no doubt would generate huge profits for those banks involved in issuing it?

Can't see a global currency ever taking hold because currency trading is by far and away the most traded asset class out there, i.e. the bankers make a lot of money from this.

[interestrateripoff]

Can't see a global currency ever taking hold because currency trading is by far and away the most traded asset class out there, i.e. the bankers make a lot of money from this.

You can if you have to trade you local currency to buy the global one, and vice versa.

[SHERWICK]

Reading the attached thread on the propertypin it looks as though a full blown bank run in Ireland is probably only hours away

http://www.theproper...php?f=4&t=34479

From that thread:

"no country for old men" gurdiev has calculated annual interest payments of 14bn pa

we is foooooooooooooooked

we broke the euro

moral of the story..."don't let the Irish in"

[SHERWICK]

You can if you have to trade you local currency to buy the global one, and vice versa.

Once everyone has the global currency though it will be very boring indeed.

[Dave Spart]

It's getting pretty ugly and some malcontents are getting personal.

Being called a tratior is one thing, but when you're just a Physiotherapist and Sports Injury clinic that's entirely another. Woe-be-tide them if they'd been paediatricians.

[ShedDweller]

From that thread:

"no country for old men" gurdiev has calculated annual interest payments of 14bn pa

Does anyone else have any more numbers? This bailout is 90bn which is (according to I think the BBC but might be wrong) €18500 for every man woman and child in the Irish Republic.

I make that an extra €1000 in taxes from each taxpayer in perpetuity ..

But how much more can the banks lose? In 12 months time will they be telling the government they need yet more cash? and again in 2012 ? What's the worst that can happen (because it probably will) ?

Ignoring all the developer loans and the sillyness (buying up the front in CapeTown etc) how much of the banks (or taxpayers) money is tied up in mortgages given between 2003 and 2009 with more than 70% LTV ? Even if the loan is 100% performing now I would only put a value on it of 40c in the € .

All the analysis you see is spun as "It can't get worse" but it has continued to get much worse .. does anyone have any figures?

[Bloo Loo]

Does anyone else have any more numbers? This bailout is 90bn which is (according to I think the BBC but might be wrong) €18500 for every man woman and child in the Irish Republic.

I make that an extra €1000 in taxes from each taxpayer in perpetuity ..

But how much more can the banks lose? In 12 months time will they be telling the government they need yet more cash? and again in 2012 ? What's the worst that can happen (because it probably will) ?

Ignoring all the developer loans and the sillyness (buying up the front in CapeTown etc) how much of the banks (or taxpayers) money is tied up in mortgages given between 2003 and 2009 with more than 70% LTV ? Even if the loan is 100% performing now I would only put a value on it of 40c in the € .

All the analysis you see is spun as "It can't get worse" but it has continued to get much worse .. does anyone have any figures?

the banks are fine...they made huge profits, theyve just run out of cash.

no problem...just borrow some....

course that detracts from their profits, ( which have yet to materialise, and they wont without the cash), so of course, nothing is fixed.

Meanwhile the Perps in all this are long gone and living in the Sun sipping the Very best Chianti and whores sweat.

[Traktion]

Reading the attached thread on the propertypin it looks as though a full blown bank run in Ireland is probably only hours away

http://www.thepropertypin.com/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=34479

The average Irish punter is now thoroughly spooked

The question is whether this is actually being engineered or is it spontaneous

The PIMCO article and certain other stories I have seen suggests this pot is deliberately being stirred to get it to boil.

Just starting to wonder............

Thanks for the link - some worried people there.

Also, there was a link to a discussion program about defaulting, due to IMF package being unaffordable - very interesting!

http://tv3.ie/videos.php?date_mode=0&full_episodes=1&locID=1.65.169

I've not watched it all yet, but it should be interesting.

EDIT: €343bn needed when everything is added in?!

Edited November 24, 2010 by Traktion

[Traktion]

Thanks for the link - some worried people there.

Also, there was a link to a discussion program about defaulting, due to IMF package being unaffordable - very interesting!

http://tv3.ie/videos.php?date_mode=0&full_episodes=1&locID=1.65.169

I've not watched it all yet, but it should be interesting.

EDIT: €343bn needed when everything is added in?!

That video is a right eye opener! Open discussions about Ireland being broke and in default territory. Figures are impossibly large to pay for, due to the Euro and its banking system. Maybe there is time for the IMF to be told to feck off yet!

[interestrateripoff]

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financetopics/financialcrisis/8156282/Ireland-austerity-plan-to-cost-Irish-households-3000.html

Between 2011 and 2015, the Irish government must make £8.5 billion of spending cuts and collect an additional £4.2 billion in taxation with an austerity programme that will bring Ireland's generous welfare state to an end.

There was more bad news for Ireland this morning after Standard & Poor cuts its debt rating two points as contagion threatens to spread through the rest of the euro region.

The EU has warned the fragile Irish government that it must find savings worth £5 billion next year, in what is expected to be a deeply controversial 2011 budget to be unveiled on December 7.

.........

The current entrance level for income tax is £15,506 for a single person and £27,071 for a married couple with children, thresholds that will rise over the next four years.

Ireland's minimum wage is to be cut 13 per cent and all Irish households face a new £257 property tax from 2012. Welfare payments, including jobseekers allowance and child benefit, will be cut five per cent or £2.5 billion.

Something we will see here, own property and have to pay a tax on it? A nice little earner that could turn out to be.

Just think what this will do for aggregate demand. GDP and GNP to collapse further on these cuts?

[copydude]

But how much more can the banks lose . . .

. . . . how much of the banks (or taxpayers) money is tied up in mortgages given between 2003 and 2009 with more than 70% LTV ? Even if the loan is 100% performing now I would only put a value on it of 40c in the € .

All the analysis you see is spun as "It can't get worse" but it has continued to get much worse .. does anyone have any figures?

This is from the Geary Institute report:

Just as in America, lending standards declined during the boom.

Of first-time buyers in 2006, only 24% had loans to value below the traditional maximum of 80% (and this falls to 15% in Dublin), 64% had ratios above 90%, and 30% were 100% mortgages.

The failings were even graver with respect to development loans where, in many cases, collateral was dispensed with, and banks lent against so-called “personal guarantees” * that the bank would have recourse to the borrower’s personal assets in the event of default. Large developers were able to borrow hundreds of millions without posting collateral on the strength of their believed equity in other highly leveraged projects they had undertaken.

*Liar Loans. Estimated to represent a quarter of the business at two Irish banks.