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House Price Crash Expectations...


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HOLA441
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HOLA445

to the aurthor i really cannot for the life of me see why a house like that can be worth that, the exact same type of house is already 130-140k cheaper in the midlands, ever thought of living elsewhere i work all over the uk , just done a stint on hyde park one, and it really does amaze me how people can pay stupid money just for postcodes, london is a toilet

Edited by sponge
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HOLA446
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HOLA447

Here's one from sunny Fulham:

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-15775341.html?premiumA=true

Currently at £2,000,000

Target price: £300,000-400,000

44364_LRS20008D7_IMG_00_0000.jpg

I live in Margate which is a complete and total dump, but Broadstairs and Sandwich are very pleasant and attractive local towns and a house like that in one of the nicest parts of those towns would be priced at around £230,000, and wouldn't sell at that. In Margate it would go to market at about £160,000, and wouldn't sell here either.

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HOLA448

I would also say that if you bought the house on the left, as opposed to the one on the right, that you would have to factor in a reduction of around £20,000 to get that white exterior paint stripped off, because as everybody surely knows by now, you don't paint Edwardian brickwork in Dulux.

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HOLA449

Four times the main earner's income, plus four times the secondary earner's income is not a reasonable mortgage to advance.

It's not reasonable, but two wage earners is a socio economic trend that I can't see ever really unwinding.

Even as a bear, this puts a bit of a floor under house prices IMO.

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HOLA4410

£190k if you're crap at haggling. There will be 10-20% of available stock who will be DESPERATE. £150k more like if you know what you're doing.

Good point: buy from a desperate seller.

I was going to remind the OP that sold prices are now, on average 7 to 8% below asking price. So, that house is already at 230ish. I think prices may fall around 10% until Feb/March. Almost 190k already.

Plus your point: find a desperate seller, and the 190k cold be found in 6 months time.

The new question becomes: Would Feb/March be a good time to get a 10 years fixed?

I would like to hear your opinion on it KB.

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HOLA4411

It's not reasonable, but two wage earners is a socio economic trend that I can't see ever really unwinding.

Well, that's women's fault for burning their bras in the 60's. They demanded the right to work, and they ended up with the obligation to work.

Sow the wind, reap the whirlwind.

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HOLA4412

Four times the main earner's income, plus four times the secondary earner's income is not a reasonable mortgage to advance.

4x combined is insane - 4x husband plus say £30,000 deposit maybe; anything the wife makes will end up going on childcare and other children costs.

Is it really insane? Say 180k price, allowing for a 25% deposit, means a £135k mortgage is payments of £880pm over 25 years at 6% interest. Is that honestly "insane" for a family bringing in 45k pa plus child benefits etc? I don't think so.

Interesting to hear a valuation in terms of who you would expect to live there earnings wise... especially as scottbeard is very close to the mark.

Why thankyouverymuch. :)

It's a very interesting subject - how much SHOULD houses be selling for post-HPC. That house you pictured will never ever sell for 80k, despite Harry Monk's protestations, though it is quite possible that if it was elsewhere in the UK than the South East it could do.

But there will always be rich and poor, so I always think of houses in terms of where on the greasy pole of society I would expect the owner of XX place to be, and think then what he or she could afford.

The idea that all couples should/will be owning great big detatched houses based on 3.5 x one minimum wage income is as irrational as the idea that property prices only ever go up.

It's not detached

Oh come on, it's got next door's garage attached, that's all! It's detached. :rolleyes:

Or are you just goading me into using the hideous phrase "link detached" on this website?

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This is around the corner from us and is identical to the one we're currently renting. It's up for £295,000.

Crazy price for the area IMO (Guisborough, Cleveland) but it is quite a nice part of the area.

I've been hoping to pick one of these up for about £200k, but after almost 2 years renting, prices have hardly moved. Hope this is the turning point...

21623_GS1738_IMG_00_0000.jpg

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HOLA4415

It's not reasonable, but two wage earners is a socio economic trend that I can't see ever really unwinding.

Even as a bear, this puts a bit of a floor under house prices IMO.

Jobs in a lot of sectors are being taken out with the unwinding of easy credit conditions and austerity measures. There might be two willing wage earners for many households but fewer job opportunities out there. At the type of pay levels thought of as common place today. I suspect the changes playing out will collpase through your price floor.

Sorry theonlywayisdown. Interesting question which I'm still thinking about.

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HOLA4416

This is around the corner from us and is identical to the one we're currently renting. It's up for £295,000.

Crazy price for the area IMO (Guisborough, Cleveland) but it is quite a nice part of the area.

I've been hoping to pick one of these up for about £200k, but after almost 2 years renting, prices have hardly moved. Hope this is the turning point...

21623_GS1738_IMG_00_0000.jpg

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HOLA4418

I love a good photo thread on a Friday so I thought I would see what everybody's specific house price crash expectations (are, timescale and value) are in pictures...

A pointless excercise maybe but I'm just curious in what you are all realistically expecting to pan out over the next couple of years, and this may make an intersting thread to refer back to in future; to assess the accuracy of predictions made by posters here.

for example, when the time is right I am looking to buy a very standard 3 bed detached like the one pictured below...

This is located in Surrey, currently advertised at £260,000

I'm expecting (hoping) to pick up a similar property for around £190,000 before 2012

22889_1928144_IMG_00_0001.jpg

rightmove ad

would love to see expectations of other HPC posters...

R

Cheap, nasty, small, overpriced box house. Even at £140,000. Even at £100,000.

The design of that house seems fine to me, and i don't see how the photo alone tells you it has "shoddy" construction.

If your ambition is bigger than a nice 3 bedroom detached house in Surrey, frankly you won't find much sympathy from 99% of the population here. :angry:

It's never edifying to see 'ambition' and 'own an x bedroom [detached] house' in the same sentence. Please someone shoot me if my 'ambitions' amount only to owning a few bricks and a tiny garden in this **ked up land.

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HOLA4419

^ disagree Mr B.

Nobody has a right to be a big posh detached house in a great area.

What we do have the right to is for the average man to own the average house without a life of debt slavery.

The poster getting a house like the above for £100k is what this site is about.

Anybody complaining about the cost of houses over £750k has no right IMO. Just buy one for £300k and retire, rather than stoking the madness and feeding the bankstas

Edited by Kyoto
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HOLA4421

I love a good photo thread on a Friday so I thought I would see what everybody's specific house price crash expectations (are, timescale and value) are in pictures...

A pointless excercise maybe but I'm just curious in what you are all realistically expecting to pan out over the next couple of years, and this may make an intersting thread to refer back to in future; to assess the accuracy of predictions made by posters here.

for example, when the time is right I am looking to buy a very standard 3 bed detached like the one pictured below...

This is located in Surrey, currently advertised at £260,000

I'm expecting (hoping) to pick up a similar property for around £190,000 before 2012

22889_1928144_IMG_00_0001.jpg

rightmove ad

would love to see expectations of other HPC posters...

R

I've been spoiled by living most of my life elsewhere especially in the US. That looks like something an itinerant Mexican farm worker might aspire to. How many square foot is that?

If the average street cleaner or shop assistant in Surrey couldn't afford it then it is too expensive.

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HOLA4422

I've been spoiled by living most of my life elsewhere especially in the US. That looks like something an itinerant Mexican farm worker might aspire to. How many square foot is that?

If the average street cleaner or shop assistant in Surrey couldn't afford it then it is too expensive.

For all those decades of being one of the richest countries in the world, most people of Britain have to put up with this hobbit-style accomodation.

And yet there are families in this country who own 100s of hectars and didn't have to even lift a finger in their lives... All they needed was to train the peasants to enjoy their servitude.

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HOLA4423

I love a good photo thread on a Friday so I thought I would see what everybody's specific house price crash expectations (are, timescale and value) are in pictures...

A pointless excercise maybe but I'm just curious in what you are all realistically expecting to pan out over the next couple of years, and this may make an intersting thread to refer back to in future; to assess the accuracy of predictions made by posters here.

for example, when the time is right I am looking to buy a very standard 3 bed detached like the one pictured below...

This is located in Surrey, currently advertised at £260,000

I'm expecting (hoping) to pick up a similar property for around £190,000 before 2012

22889_1928144_IMG_00_0001.jpg

rightmove ad

would love to see expectations of other HPC posters...

R

OK, everyones had a good giggle at the Barratt home.

An agonising question for me is, do I sign another years rental agreement ??

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