Jump to content
House Price Crash Forum

Meat Puppet

  • Posts

  • Joined

  • Last visited

Everything posted by Meat Puppet

  1. No not really. I certainly hope you are not considering making any decisions based on the fear mongering here on this site. It was before my time, but I've seen comments that the best forecaster here was a banned "troll" called Sibley. Unfortunately this seems to be a gathering place for malcontents and monomaniacs despite the occasional brilliant poster. To make matters worse the best of the actives here changes his name every fortnight, and the most original thinker decided to make his own website.
  2. Quite clever setting up that enclave in E14. They won't notice a thing.
  3. Good stuff TdL. As Minsky stated it was an extended period of macroeconomic stability that led households to continue ratcheting up their leverage. Would have been much better to have had a sharp recession after the tech boom that might have kept that private debt at reasonable levels. Now the question is how much deleveraging is going to take place. Each crisis and recession from here on out will cause households to want less and less debt. A downward spiral will then replace the upward boom and instead of private debt dropping to something like 60% of GDP it will continue on down to 40 or even 30%. It will take a decade at least to get to those latter ratios.
  4. What's interesting is that inflation expectations are almost exactly what they have been over the last five years. So the BoE has a credibility problem, but its the exact opposite of what nearly everyone here thinks it is. The markets refuse to believe that they will conduct sustained monetary expansion and raise long term inflation rates. This means liquidity trap conditions will continue to prevail and growth will continue to be subpar for a long time yet.
  5. You must have no reference to previous downturns. This country and others can still afford to pay nearly 20% of its potential workforce to be idle. These are people who otherwise would have suffered from malnutrition and in many cases in the US travelled thousands of miles for the privilege of indentured servitude. And your forecasts of something wonderful must mean the children of today's dispossessed. Demographic changes are snail like.
  6. Extremely bullish on bonds was smart three decades ago, but one decade ago just after 9/11... OK it wasn't the worst call, but not spectacular. This bull market is looking very tired to me especially after the blow off of the last 2-3 months. Compare 10 year gilts to the dividend on the FTSE, better yet do the same in Germany. Equities look, relatively, cheap to me here.
  7. I'm certainly no supporter of these mega banks but dealing with the local banks 20 to 25 years ago was no fun for the mobile professional as I found myself. I had accounts in Illinois, Ohio, Louisiana, Mississippi and North Carolina. I think most of those banks are now owned by Wachovia or however has since bought them out. So I think the removal of the whatever the interstate banking act was, was a good idea for the modern age. Removal of Glass-Steagal, however, is a different story.
  8. And how does "capitalism" focus on this long view you talk about? Sounds like you mean a state is necessary to dictate what these long term values are. Let's face it everything in life is a trade off and there are no panaceas. Either accept the gains offered by the free market which may (or may not - nothing is guaranteed) lead to a sub optimal result, or have a heavy handed static statist society which almost certainly results in no long term improvements. Or as most of the west has done for the last 200 hundred years shuffle between the two and hope for the best.
  9. Nominally I think the S&P 500 just nudged it in late 2007.
  10. I would think that family would be the ultimate security rather than land or houses. Suburban sprawl in America started slowly after WW2 and it was the Silent generation who followed the GIs who mainly benefited from it. The GIs, analogous to today's Millenials according to Strauss and Howe, were self-sacrificing in their younger years but grabbed outsized pots of goodies in their old age. And if equities are shunned, then as a vulture like Gen Xer then I am in there.
  11. The stats say that the average London FTBer has a deposit of around £100k and a salary around £50-60k. By salary that means professionals only and by deposit it either means bankers or those with kind and wealthy parents. Like most mega cities renting will be more prevalent in London and there is still a huge social rented sector. Forced sales, and that means a serious depression, are the best means for a price drop in London unless the green belt is sacrificed.
  12. Thanks for the reply, and I agree with what you have said having spent a short time as an "analyst", in the WTC no less, back in the dark ages. However dividends, which are not subject to manipulation (as even a renowned intellect like G W Bush noted), and dividend yields price the US markets much higher than their UK and Euro counterparts. This has happened consistently since about '95 through both bull and bear markets. Perhaps some of this has to do with tax consequences, but having lived on both sides of the pond I don't think they are that relevant.
  13. Wow! Is he the UK's Bob Prechter? You know someone is either a crook or stupid when they bring out the Japan comparison.
  14. This might work, but I'm still influenced by the first Generations book by Strauss and Howe from 20 years ago. This sort of mass protest would have worked with the boomers who wanted to remake the world back in the 60s, but these millenials are just too conformist to make a mass movement. They will make good cannon fodder when their time comes though. Of course I take these generalisations with multiple grains of salt, but it may be true in that 10% (just guessing) of boomers were hippies but only 1% of millenials give a damn about income inequality. Thats the difference between era defining protests.
  15. Austrian economics is great for low capital / loads of labour countries like the early USSR or post WWII Asia. Yes, we know savings = investment as a matter of economic law, but the great imponderable is how labour productivity given a certain level of capital increases. That is the only way that living standards increase at the margin, ie us in the developed world.
  16. Don't get me wrong I think we are in for a sub-par decade or so, but when these self-serving finance pro's start in about the end of the world as we know it and then with a presumably straight face claim that they knew it was heading this way back in 2005 then my bullsh1t detector is flashing bright red. Might be we don't even have another recession before the deleveraging has run its course. I rather doubt it, but it is certainly possible. What may be worse than collapse for those who have prepared is a prolonged period of very low or even negative asset returns but house prices remaining stubbornly high compared to wages.
  17. Back in August in Bangkok I saw an ad at the Sala Daeng BTS station aimed at investors about a new block of apartments with yields in the 5 to 7% range. I imagine those were gross yields as well. If that's what is available in a not so stable third world country then why expect more here in the UK.
  18. Senior economist for a huge bank eh? I don't think there could be a more bullish indicator than this. Only the ignored "crackpots" were bearish in 2005.
  19. I wonder if this is one of the reasons why P/E ratios have been persistently higher in the US than in Europe. Most American companies have been ruthless in switching to defined contribution plans starting at least 20 years ago. Might have to question my strategy of overweighting European shares based on single digit P/Es.
  20. I believe S Korea has some of the most restrictive planning laws in the world.
  21. I'm glad there are people who actually watch, or even own, a TV to tell me what the public thinks. Or is it what the public is told to think? Jesus, maybe I should just watch for myself and make up my own opinion. Or would that really be my own opinion...
  22. The perma bulls have been chastened by the latest losses, and to be fair I've lost some too in the meltdown, and probably won't respond until gold has an up day. But please take the oz of gold to global money supply arguments with several tons of salt. The PMs are worthy of investment even if they are expected to return nothing because they are not correlated with either stock or bond returns in the long run, but they should only take a small part of your portfolio.
  23. The reasons the perma bulls will give you are as realistic as you would have heard in 1999 from the tech bulls. The time to have bought gold and silver was long ago; we need ideas about what beaten down assets are worthy of investment now. Non financial Italian big caps anyone?
  • Create New...

Important Information

We have placed cookies on your device to help make this website better. You can adjust your cookie settings, otherwise we'll assume you're okay to continue.