Roost Posted October 8, 2010 Share Posted October 8, 2010 I love a good photo thread on a Friday so I thought I would see what everybody's specific house price crash expectations (are, timescale and value) are in pictures... A pointless excercise maybe but I'm just curious in what you are all realistically expecting to pan out over the next couple of years, and this may make an intersting thread to refer back to in future; to assess the accuracy of predictions made by posters here. for example, when the time is right I am looking to buy a very standard 3 bed detached like the one pictured below... This is located in Surrey, currently advertised at £260,000 I'm expecting (hoping) to pick up a similar property for around £190,000 before 2012 rightmove ad would love to see expectations of other HPC posters... R Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Badger Posted October 8, 2010 Share Posted October 8, 2010 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Badger Posted October 8, 2010 Share Posted October 8, 2010 and I forgot of course Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Killer Bunny Posted October 8, 2010 Share Posted October 8, 2010 I'm expecting (hoping) to pick up a similar property for around £190,000 before 2012 £190k if you're crap at haggling. There will be 10-20% of available stock who will be DESPERATE. £150k more like if you know what you're doing. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cardiffone Posted October 8, 2010 Share Posted October 8, 2010 (edited) I love a good photo thread on a Friday so I thought I would see what everybody's specific house price crash expectations (are, timescale and value) are in pictures... A pointless excercise maybe but I'm just curious in what you are all realistically expecting to pan out over the next couple of years, and this may make an intersting thread to refer back to in future; to assess the accuracy of predictions made by posters here. for example, when the time is right I am looking to buy a very standard 3 bed detached like the one pictured below... This is located in Surrey, currently advertised at £260,000 I'm expecting (hoping) to pick up a similar property for around £190,000 before 2012 rightmove ad would love to see expectations of other HPC posters... R I expect never live in a lego town house like that.... Edited October 8, 2010 by cardiffone Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Monk Posted October 8, 2010 Share Posted October 8, 2010 That looks like the ideal type of house for a typical family, let's say he is a tyre fitter and earns £18,000, she is a nurse working part-time while she raises the kids and earns £14,000... I make that about £80,000's worth. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrs Bear Posted October 8, 2010 Share Posted October 8, 2010 I expect never live in a lego town house like that.... A rude newbie. Please go away and learn some manners. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cardiffone Posted October 8, 2010 Share Posted October 8, 2010 A rude newbie. Please go away and learn some manners. Sorry I'm just as annoyed by poor design and shoddy building, as I am by sky high prices. I wish people would stop buying these types of houses, then they would stop building them and build decent well designed modern homes..... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scottbeard Posted October 8, 2010 Share Posted October 8, 2010 That looks like the ideal type of house for a typical family, let's say he is a tyre fitter and earns £18,000, she is a nurse working part-time while she raises the kids and earns £14,000... I make that about £80,000's worth. 1. That house looks looks nicer than average (average would be 3 bed semi, not detached) 2. It's in Surrey: prime south east territory I'd regard this as something like a "one FT teacher, one PT teacher" house, and therefore maybe 4 x (£30,000 plus £15,000) = £180k So £190k doesn't sound unreasonable. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scottbeard Posted October 8, 2010 Share Posted October 8, 2010 Sorry I'm just as annoyed by poor design and shoddy building, as I am by sky high prices. I wish people would stop buying these types of houses, then they would stop building them and build decent well designed modern homes..... The design of that house seems fine to me, and i don't see how the photo alone tells you it has "shoddy" construction. If your ambition is bigger than a nice 3 bedroom detached house in Surrey, frankly you won't find much sympathy from 99% of the population here. :angry: Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arbitrage Posted October 8, 2010 Share Posted October 8, 2010 That looks like the ideal type of house for a typical family, let's say he is a tyre fitter and earns £18,000, she is a nurse working part-time while she raises the kids and earns £14,000... I make that about £80,000's worth. +1 Yes, the maths really is that simple - however, after the bust their will be a monumental shortage of credit which will crush EFFECTIVE demand, and with it, prices £60 000 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Limpet Posted October 8, 2010 Share Posted October 8, 2010 1. That house looks looks nicer than average (average would be 3 bed semi, not detached) 2. It's in Surrey: prime south east territory I'd regard this as something like a "one FT teacher, one PT teacher" house, and therefore maybe 4 x (£30,000 plus £15,000) = £180k So £190k doesn't sound unreasonable. I remember back in 1987 when I bought mine the generally accepted offer was 3 1/2 times my salary or 3 times plus the wifes annual salary. So on those numbers you could borrow £105k so allowing about a 10% deposit you`d pay about £120k. That sounds fairer. I don`t get this enthusiasm for counting many multiples of joint salaries. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guillotine Posted October 8, 2010 Share Posted October 8, 2010 (edited) The design of that house seems fine to me, and i don't see how the photo alone tells you it has "shoddy" construction. If your ambition is bigger than a nice 3 bedroom detached house in Surrey, frankly you won't find much sympathy from 99% of the population here. :angry: a) It's not detached b ) Surrey is an historic English county, not part of some Prescottian "region". Edited October 8, 2010 by Bring forth the guillotine Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Monk Posted October 8, 2010 Share Posted October 8, 2010 The design of that house seems fine to me, and i don't see how the photo alone tells you it has "shoddy" construction. It is largely a matter of taste methinks, I too do not find the design appealing simply because I prefer Victorian and Edwardian architecture. Therefore I too would not want to live there. Nothing wrong with anyone who does, but nothing wrong with anyone who doesn't either. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Monk Posted October 8, 2010 Share Posted October 8, 2010 I'd regard this as something like a "one FT teacher, one PT teacher" house, and therefore maybe 4 x (£30,000 plus £15,000) = £180k So £190k doesn't sound unreasonable. Four times the main earner's income, plus four times the secondary earner's income is not a reasonable mortgage to advance. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Giordano Bruno Posted October 8, 2010 Share Posted October 8, 2010 A rude newbie. Please go away and learn some manners. I am curious as to where the rudeness lies. I can see rudeness in your post, but not in the post that you refer to. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Goat Posted October 8, 2010 Share Posted October 8, 2010 (edited) I'd regard this as something like a "one FT teacher, one PT teacher" house, and therefore maybe 4 x (£30,000 plus £15,000) = £180k So £190k doesn't sound unreasonable. 4 x £30,000 + £15,000 = £135,000 not £180,000. £150,000 would look closer to the mark. Edit: Brain failure. But 4x combined is insane - 4x husband plus say £30,000 deposit maybe; anything the wife makes will end up going on childcare and other children costs. Edited October 8, 2010 by Goat Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jonboy2010 Posted October 8, 2010 Share Posted October 8, 2010 I love a good photo thread on a Friday so I thought I would see what everybody's specific house price crash expectations (are, timescale and value) are in pictures... A pointless excercise maybe but I'm just curious in what you are all realistically expecting to pan out over the next couple of years, and this may make an intersting thread to refer back to in future; to assess the accuracy of predictions made by posters here. for example, when the time is right I am looking to buy a very standard 3 bed detached like the one pictured below... This is located in Surrey, currently advertised at £260,000 I'm expecting (hoping) to pick up a similar property for around £190,000 before 2012 rightmove ad would love to see expectations of other HPC posters... R Just see a property in my area yesterday was 399000 today 350000 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roost Posted October 8, 2010 Author Share Posted October 8, 2010 That looks like the ideal type of house for a typical family, let's say he is a tyre fitter and earns £18,000, she is a nurse working part-time while she raises the kids and earns £14,000... I make that about £80,000's worth. 1. That house looks looks nicer than average (average would be 3 bed semi, not detached) 2. It's in Surrey: prime south east territory I'd regard this as something like a "one FT teacher, one PT teacher" house, and therefore maybe 4 x (£30,000 plus £15,000) = £180k So £190k doesn't sound unreasonable. I remember back in 1987 when I bought mine the generally accepted offer was 3 1/2 times my salary or 3 times plus the wifes annual salary. So on those numbers you could borrow £105k so allowing about a 10% deposit you`d pay about £120k. That sounds fairer. I don`t get this enthusiasm for counting many multiples of joint salaries. Interesting to hear a valuation in terms of who you would expect to live there earnings wise... especially as scottbeard is very close to the mark. This seems to be a lost art as houses just don't reflect owners/occupations anymore; more age than anything. Older people have massive houses seemingly regardless of their occupations while younger people either rent or own 2 bed shoe boxes... you would obviously expect this to a degree but I've got a load of mates my age (28) who are earning decent salaries and couldn't afford a place like the 'lego house' pictured even on combined mortgage with partner. But hey I guess thats why this website is here. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Monk Posted October 8, 2010 Share Posted October 8, 2010 I would also say that if I was employed in education, particularly if I was, say, a media studies or sports psychology lecturer at a third rate poly, I would not be feeling too confident about my future employment prospects because we can't afford this "50% of kids must go to Uni" nonsense either any more and I see dark clouds on the horizon for many in the educonomy.. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hpc-craig Posted October 8, 2010 Share Posted October 8, 2010 It is largely a matter of taste methinks, I too do not find the design appealing simply because I prefer Victorian and Edwardian architecture. Therefore I too would not want to live there. Nothing wrong with anyone who does, but nothing wrong with anyone who doesn't either. Good man. Buying a house is extremely personal and everyone has different tastes. I am expected to buy a fairly new (60's or later) house in the suburbs because that's what most of my family have. Personally I prefer older properties (wooden floors and quirky stairs do it for me) and would like to live closer to town. Some of my Aunties/Uncles have to drive EVERYWHERE - pub, shops, takeaway. The argument of suburbs being quieter and 'less hassle' doesn't wash with me. I've seen some really rough area's out of town. The house that the chose looks like a good solid family home. I would be happy to live there, but I probably wouldn't choose it as it's not what I would really like. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
theonlywayisdown Posted October 8, 2010 Share Posted October 8, 2010 (edited) I love a good photo thread on a Friday so I thought I would see what everybody's specific house price crash expectations (are, timescale and value) are in pictures... A pointless excercise maybe but I'm just curious in what you are all realistically expecting to pan out over the next couple of years, and this may make an intersting thread to refer back to in future; to assess the accuracy of predictions made by posters here. for example, when the time is right I am looking to buy a very standard 3 bed detached like the one pictured below... This is located in Surrey, currently advertised at £260,000 I'm expecting (hoping) to pick up a similar property for around £190,000 before 2012 rightmove ad would love to see expectations of other HPC posters... R These houses are the typical cheap box type houses built by the likes of Barratts in the early 90s (my parents live in one). Low ceilings, thin plaster walls, cheap fittings and hollow doors were the standard back then. You can change the windows and doors, but the walls you cant do anything about. £150k given the location, should be about right. They don't build houses like they used to..... EDIT: forgot to mention, the rooms are also tiny.... Edited October 8, 2010 by theonlywayisdown Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
neil324 Posted October 8, 2010 Share Posted October 8, 2010 Last sold 29th July 2005 £222,000. So their flying a kite asking £260,000. I think prices will fall back to anywhere between 2002 to 2004 prices depending on various factors. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Monk Posted October 8, 2010 Share Posted October 8, 2010 (edited) £150k given the location, should be about right. But not if you have to stretch yourself to the hilt to service the mortgage from the moment you buy it, unless you do not expect a) interest rates to rise any time in the next 25 years b ) inflation to outstrip future pay rises at any time in the next 25 years, or c) your income to fall or disappear completely any time in the next 25 years. Edited October 8, 2010 by Harry Monk Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
theonlywayisdown Posted October 8, 2010 Share Posted October 8, 2010 But not if you have to stretch yourself to the hilt to service the mortgage from the moment you buy it, unless you do not expect a) interest rates to rise any time in the next 25 years b ) inflation to outstrip future pay rises at any time in the next 25 years, or c) your income to fall or disappear completely any time in the next 25 years. Perhaps my viewpoint is skewed, although I do know firsthand how poorly built these type of houses are, my valuation is based on what I'd pay for it outright in cash. Mortgage availability, interest rates, wage inflation/deflation doesn't concern me at all at the moment (guess I'm lucky ) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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