Rm -1.1%

[Pent Up]

Well, Autumn is almost here - never understood the nuttiness of EAs who try to make out that Easter/Spring is a huge selling time and then from May to end of August no one wants to buy a house but we all rush to their offices in September!

The summer lull is not just a lull from buyers, it's a lull in new listings too. September is bringing a return to the surge in listings combined with further falling demand. People will be rushing to EA offices in September but it will be a rush of new vendors not a rush of buyers!

[The Masked Tulip]

Don't forget public job losses and the slashing of mortgage assistance is going to cause a wave of repossessions (I think the BBC implied this morning it could be as many as 250,000 who currently receive this benefit).

No-wonder Right Move are advertising on TV. It's a preemptive move to attract sellers now before a mass of homes are repo'd and sold through auction.

A few weeks ago RM was listed as a stock to sell in Moneyweek.

[The Masked Tulip]

What I would like to know is where all these people who if they do manage to sell are planning to move to?.....

I know of a few people who are in debt hoping to sell their homes and move into housing association housing, but failing to realise that the waiting lists are long.

I suspect others are assuming they will get full asking price, pay off debts and downgrade - probably explains so many of the ludicrous asking prices.

[The Masked Tulip]

It is on the Mail's website now.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1313488/Double-dip-fear-house-prices-fall-month-row.html

[Guest_James Toney_*]

i know 3 friends who are getting houses valued this week,

they are trying to sell asap and move in with parents , because they cant really afford the mortgage payments now,

[Realistbear]

I was waiting for some whole number drops before getting interested and RM has finally been and gone and done it!

Locally (East of Brighton) I am seeing much bigger falls as I am now registered with a couple of EAs and am tracking several properties. I told them that I am interested in properties that were listed in the low £300's at the beginning of the year when they went below £250k. Those £300k houses are hovering around £250-£270 as of today and I have decided to lower ther ante to the £225 level before I start to look a little closer. With whole number drops representing far bigger on the ground drops I should be in the market to buy after Crimbo.

[Constable]

They have to provide a crumb of comfort, it is their trade, and I do find them mor ebalanced than most VIs.

I agree, and to be fair they called the top of the "return to normal" phase in June.

[winkie]

I know of a few people who are in debt hoping to sell their homes and move into housing association housing, but failing to realise that the waiting lists are long.

I suspect others are assuming they will get full asking price, pay off debts and downgrade - probably explains so many of the ludicrous asking prices.

...very little council/housing association housing available, not nearly enough for all those that require it.

...house price drop will come from the top.

[Guest_James Toney_*]

I was waiting for some whole number drops before getting interested and RM has finally been and gone and done it!

Locally (East of Brighton) I am seeing much bigger falls as I am now registered with a couple of EAs and am tracking several properties. I told them that I am interested in properties that were listed in the low £300's at the beginning of the year when they went below £250k. Those £300k houses are hovering around £250-£270 as of today and I have decided to lower ther ante to the £225 level before I start to look a little closer. With whole number drops representing far bigger on the ground drops I should be in the market to buy after Crimbo.

RB , i am going to start putting in offers 20-30% below asking prices after xmas

[The Masked Tulip]

RB , i am going to start putting in offers 20-30% below asking prices after xmas

Yes, but Easter will only be 4 months away then - bound to be a bounce in Easter 2011

[Bloo Loo]

Our young friends with the bad neighbours who have their house valued at 30K over what they paid in 2008....have had no viewings whatsoever.

They have viewed a few though....and now ARE tempted to push themselves to the much higher mortgage the EA said they could get.

This is what happens...a sensible decision is turned by persuasive VIs, and asking prices are always just out of reach of sensible these days, so the unsensible looks the norm and desirable.

lucky for this couple, they may make an offer (another sold) but unable to proceed as their base property is unsold, unviewed, and unloved.

[Guest_James Toney_*]

Yes, but Easter will only be 4 months away then - bound to be a bounce in Easter 2011

we all know there will be no easter bounce until 2013

[MrB]

we all know there will be no easter bounce until 2013

Drollery aside, there probably will be mini spring bounces throughout any sustained period of falls. There were Spring bounces throughout the last crash, and it's very unusual for prices not to increase in the Spring months,

Still think some old time posters are getting in too early. 5-10% falls from here only puts us in 2008 territory IMO, I'd be looking for gains post 2004 to be wiped out, at least in real terms. Forget any idea of 'anchoring' delusional discounts. Just because a property was marketed at £300,000 (with no interest) and is now marketed for £270,000 does not mean you are getting a 10% discount! In reality it's still priced probably 40% above the normal value in relation to earnings/rental yields.

I'm in Club 2013.

[JimSkank]

Sorry to crow about this yet again but I predicted here that Hammersmith & Fulham (Aug -4.7%; Sept -8.3%), Wandsworth (-6.2%; -2.0%), Richmond (-6.1%; -5.7%), Kingston (-6.0%; -2.6%), Camden (-5.3%; -4.2%) and Islington (-4.1%; -1.6%) would lead the way.

I was sure that there would be a bounce in the Rightmove stats after such chunky falls last month. How wrong I was!

So the average asking price for a place in Hammersmith & Fulham has fallen from £801,261 in June to £685,263 in September. -£115,998 (-14.48%). Ouch! I know the falls only wipe out the "gains" from the previous 6 months, but I can imagine a few middle class property obsessives choking on their Special K in London this morning.

Wow, but that sounds too extreme for Hammersmith & Fulham?? Can these stats be skewed by the mix of properties coming to market (ie, big block of shite newbuild skewing down), or are they adjusted like the other indicees?

Either way its GO GO GO GO GO GO GO GO GO!!!!!!

[Realistbear]

Drollery aside, there probably will be mini spring bounces throughout any sustained period of falls. There were Spring bounces throughout the last crash, and it's very unusual for prices not to increase in the Spring months,

Still think some old time posters are getting in too early. 5-10% falls from here only puts us in 2008 territory IMO, I'd be looking for gains post 2004 to be wiped out, at least in real terms. Forget any idea of 'anchoring' delusional discounts. Just because a property was marketed at £300,000 (with no interest) and is now marketed for £270,000 does not mean you are getting a 10% discount! In reality it's still priced probably 40% above the normal value in relation to earnings/rental yields.

I'm in Club 2013.

The stuff I am looking at peaked above £350k (we are only 5 muikles East of Frenzy City Brighton) and I plan to start looking seriously at around £225k which does represent a decent drop of arond 30-40%. Where I live thetre are a lot of stable retired folks and it is already much cheaper than 5 miles West so any drops will be below the national average imo. I am now renting a one-bed flat from freinds and it is a nice gaff but not for long term.

Much will depend on what actually happens in the next quarter. If we start to see some juicy drops (5% a month) then it may be best to stay clear longer. I am assuming a gentle crash of around 30-40% with the starting point being the peak of 2008 when a typical property I would buy would have been £350. Knock off 35% and you get around £225 or so. If I was further North I would expect at least 45% off from peak and so forth. This bit of the SE will get hit hard but possibly not as hard as the rest of the country and, TBH, prices did not rise that fast here in the boom years as it is not Brighton.

[Guest_James Toney_*]

Drollery aside, there probably will be mini spring bounces throughout any sustained period of falls. There were Spring bounces throughout the last crash, and it's very unusual for prices not to increase in the Spring months,

Still think some old time posters are getting in too early. 5-10% falls from here only puts us in 2008 territory IMO, I'd be looking for gains post 2004 to be wiped out, at least in real terms. Forget any idea of 'anchoring' delusional discounts. Just because a property was marketed at £300,000 (with no interest) and is now marketed for £270,000 does not mean you are getting a 10% discount! In reality it's still priced probably 40% above the normal value in relation to earnings/rental yields.

I'm in Club 2013.

excellent post

[JimSkank]

Drollery aside, there probably will be mini spring bounces throughout any sustained period of falls. There were Spring bounces throughout the last crash, and it's very unusual for prices not to increase in the Spring months,

Still think some old time posters are getting in too early. 5-10% falls from here only puts us in 2008 territory IMO, I'd be looking for gains post 2004 to be wiped out, at least in real terms. Forget any idea of 'anchoring' delusional discounts. Just because a property was marketed at £300,000 (with no interest) and is now marketed for £270,000 does not mean you are getting a 10% discount! In reality it's still priced probably 40% above the normal value in relation to earnings/rental yields.

I'm in Club 2013.

Club 2013 all the way, probably won't return to the UK till then for that reason too...

[Georgia O'Keeffe]

Drollery aside, there probably will be mini spring bounces throughout any sustained period of falls. There were Spring bounces throughout the last crash, and it's very unusual for prices not to increase in the Spring months,

Still think some old time posters are getting in too early. 5-10% falls from here only puts us in 2008 territory IMO, I'd be looking for gains post 2004 to be wiped out, at least in real terms. Forget any idea of 'anchoring' delusional discounts. Just because a property was marketed at £300,000 (with no interest) and is now marketed for £270,000 does not mean you are getting a 10% discount! In reality it's still priced probably 40% above the normal value in relation to earnings/rental yields.

I'm in Club 2013.

Currently my money would be on the next notable bounce (5%ish over a few months) being when the nationwide index takes out the march 09 lows and falls to about 140K (the bounce being a back test of the March 09 value of about 148), after that bounce it should pretty rapidly fall sub 100K which is likely to see the majority of the crash, i imagine this will be interest rate driven).

Alternatively prices could double over the next seven years and everyone can be rich rich rich

[Topher Bear]

We will be looking to move in 3 to 6 months time, and that is likely to be a change of area so mrs tb is reluctant to buy, then we'd be stuck for another 6 months. So although tempted to buy soon, I might be held back for my good:)

[Democorruptcy]

the lowest new properties coming to market numbers for months...26,000 per WEEK.

with 40,000 approvals per MONTH? thats good news for bulls?

For numpties like me who missed Bloo's bold text on his original post

[OnlyMe]

Well, Autumn is almost here - never understood the nuttiness of EAs who try to make out that Easter/Spring is a huge selling time and then from May to end of August no one wants to buy a house but we all rush to their offices in September!

They try and push up the prices to provide some intial momentum (and sales) before it goes dead over the winter in an attmept to keep all the averages going up over the year and all that confidencec nice and bubbly, helps seed the spring "bounce".

2010 - FAIL.

Edited September 20, 2010 by OnlyMe

[catmandu]

It says there's been a big slowdown in the number of properties coming onto the market

Not good news

Assuming the figures are not seaonally adjusted, this is surely expected - people put their house on the market in spring - far less in August/Sept when the winter months are approaching.

Of course in most cases the houses are still on the market no matter what time it was first put there which I why I'd agree with the other poster that time on market is a better indicator.

Expect some to remove their property from the market, some to drop their prices and some to stay on the market with no viewings.

We'll have another surge next spring but by then the prices will be markedly lower than today. If the other stats from Nationwide etc confirm -1% a month then don't underestimate how fast that will feed into the market after the govt cuts kick in.

Banks have been very generous about repossessions, but that won't last forever.

[red]

We will be looking to move in 3 to 6 months time, and that is likely to be a change of area so mrs tb is reluctant to buy, then we'd be stuck for another 6 months. So although tempted to buy soon, I might be held back for my good:)

We're expecting our first child any day now - Mrs Red very, very keen to get a place of our own. Had enough of renting. It looks like we'll be buying into the slide sometime next year. Frustrating as I was prepared to dig in for a couple more years. Hey ho.

Though encouraged by RM stats, there's simply not enough on the market here in London N2 - asking prices remain stubbornly high and very little is selling.

With little hope of IRs rising in next 6 months, we're hoping catalyst for further, more pronounced falls will come from unemployment/sentiment/forced sales...

[moonriver]

Bloomberg's report on this....

I see it says there is a "relentless stream of fresh property".

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-09-19/u-k-home-asking-prices-drop-erasing-half-of-2010-gain-rightmove-says.html

U.K. House-Price Drop Erases Half of 2010 Gains, Rightmove Says

U.K. home sellers lowered asking prices for a third month in September, wiping out half of the gains made since the start of 2010, Rightmove Plc said.

Average asking prices in England and Wales fell 1.1 percent from the previous month to 229,767 pounds ($358,551), the operator of Britain’s biggest property website said in a report published in London today. Values have dropped 3.4 percent in the last three months, it said.

A pickup in the supply of homes for sale is putting downward pressure on prices, while curbs on lending by banks crimped demand, Rightmove said. Bank of England Governor Mervyn King said last week that bank balance sheets “are not in tremendously robust shape,” and that this may restrain lending.

“The surge of extra stock has left the market with a real supply hangover,” Miles Shipside, commercial director of Rightmove, said in the statement. “Sellers’ attempts to hold onto price gains made earlier in the year have suffered from a relentless stream of fresh property.”

The average unsold number of properties per real-estate agent held at a record high of 79 this month, Rightmove said.

Seven of 10 regions tracked by the property company showed falling asking prices, led by a 4.4 percent drop in the East Midlands. Values in London fell 1.5 percent, led by an 8.3 percent decline in Hammersmith and Fulham.

Rightmove said the weekly average of properties listed for sale in September fell to 26,000, the lowest since April. The reading exceeded 30,000 in June and July, and has held above 25,000 since March.

U.K. banks approved 48,772 mortgages in July, little changed from the previous month and less than half the level at the start of 2007, before the financial crisis struck. King told a meeting of the Trades Union Congress last week that lenders still need time to improve their financial positions after the crisis.

[the flying pig]

London freesheet 'City AM' had an interesting take on the news.

They reckon that Londoners were 'hit' by the news.

What I think they really mean is that London boomers and BTL-ers were hit. Londoners born in the 80s, 90s, and some of the 70s were clearly ‘boosted’.