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House Price Crash Forum


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About JimSkank

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    HPC Poster
  1. I have 25 years to go on my 400k mortgage... feel my pain!! Put down a 40% deposit, got a five year fix. Rate rises would hurt but not as much as the disappearence of equity. Its a gamble. My gamble is that mortgage rates won't be allowed to rise as the entire state seems truly entwined with non-decreasing house prices. Half of homeowners have no mortgage, i think the growth that is the endgame is that everyone is borrowed up to the max. Not sure where they'll go from there! But at the moment you have the lucky elders ricketing around in their paid off houses, ready to be replaced with all this borrowing capacity. Raw debt fodder. Look at the OBS forecasts, thats where the growth comes from. Very sad, very unfair, but if that is the case i can't fight it. Jim
  2. Yep, I have been sucked in. Got a 10 year fix at 3.89% so hoping to ride out any storms. Debt coming out of my eyeballs. Oh well...
  3. Hazzard, Great work thanks very much for this. Wondering why you don't include Barclays/Woolwich and First Direct? Cheers, Jimbo
  4. You're original OP stated an assumption of non-growth over 100 years and also defined growth as the commonly understood real-gdp increases as a measure. So, i'm assuming a), and c above are measures of prosperity outside of this that you are proposing society may value more in such an environment. I would say that a) must therefore be contributing to efficiency rather than complexity, or it would contradict the original non-growth assumption. Increasing efficiency I would argue then leads to c). sounds like maintenance to the status quo, which is a given in flat land surely! all roads lead to c)....
  5. Wondered if anybody had any advice or experience with buying/renting in herts/bucks villages north of London? I'm moving back to the uk after 4 years away, and whilst renting to start with, may persuade myself to make a few offers from 6 months onwards. Budget is 400k - 600k, and looking for a 3+ bed with a garden in a village type setting. Prices seem extremely high, only not as ridiculous as closer in to London. I guess I'm mainly looking for comments on specific areas, localised markets prices/volumes/stock - good/bad areas etc... Only the start of the process for me, and a large chance I won't buy, but will update here with any research I do that I think is interesting/useful. Cheers
  6. Complete ********, terrible reporting, and kneejerk reactionary rubbish from most here. By what mechanism will this amount of government debt be 'transferred' to households?
  7. No the household debt figure is pure liabilities. The OBR forecast doesn't seem to add a corresponding savings/asset forecast. I'm quite interested in these figures. The following is a (corrected) extract from the OBR forecast in November, the numbers changed slightly in March this year but the gist is the same... So massive increases here. I think home loans are roughly 80% of this figure, investment loans 10% (predominantly btl i would guess), and 10% is credit/store cards and other unsecured. Perhaps the forecast includes increases in student loans and other unsecured, but i'm guessing the great proportion of this increase regards mortgage loans/btl loans. I just don't see this as a sensible forecast given the environment. However, rather than assuming their ineptitude I am more inclined that discussions with banksters have resulted in them being able to make this forecast. These figures will all be tied together in their economic models for growth, and will be a key driver of the growth (small as it is) in their long term forecasts. Hence, less of a rebalancing of the economy than they would have you believe, as much is still resting on a recovering housing market with (vast) increases in personal debt. Finally, and perhaps this is reading too much into it, the correction was issued in February...OBR correction ... just as growth figures were coming to light that were revised down strongly to those previously forecast.... hmmmmm.....
  8. This really is a great gif, looking forward to it developing. Is it possible to go even further back?
  9. Getting in sunnier in wales mr tulip
  10. Thanks, and I think its ok, have kept it as simple as possible. For example there is no variance in rates achievable on different LTV's, or benefits of saving greater deposits due to not buying etc..
  11. The following table shows the house price declines needed to offset movements in mortgage rates (y) with a given deposit (x% of house value) on an associated loan of any size. x=10% x=25% x=50% x=75%y=+1% -3.6% -3.0% -2.0% -1.0%y=+2% -6.9% -5.7% -3.8% -1.9%y=+3% -10.0% -8.3% -5.5% -2.8%y=+4% -12.8% -10.7% -7.1% -3.6%y=+5% -15.5% -13.0% -8.6% -4.3% Eg, If you were buying with a 25% deposit and if rates rise by 3% tomorrow, then a corresponding fall in house prices of at least 8.3% would be necessary to ensure net positive impact. Assumptions - The rate variance applies only for the first 5 years of a 25 year mortage - Decline in HP's stated, effecting the offset calculation (difference in payments for first 5 years + difference in outstanding loan liability at year 5). - No discounting for present value in first 5 years. Of course, there are further considerations regarding rent, interest etc, which will differ on individual circumstances but I have tried to isolate the impact of the increased cost of money against potential future falls. For me personally, buying with 50% deposit, I would expect an increase in future mortgage rates of +3% to negatively impact HPD by more than 5.5% and so gives me confidence to wait it out. Happy to answer questions on calculation. Jim
  12. Hmmmmm, we got to page 3 without anyone pointing out the error in the original hypothesis although you do allude to it here... (although from the wrong angle) Although the interest payments are 33% higher post-crash, the monthly mortgage payment will actually be less as you are paying back less of the capital. In the post-crash case the monthly payment is about 780 quid a month, whereas pre-crash the monthly payment is 800 quid a month. Hence lower payments and a net benefit over the mortgage term. Jim
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