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House Price Crash Forum


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Everything posted by catmandu

  1. Won't be a surprise to anyone who has read the last 20 pages of this topic, but Special Report on Aberdeen here: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/05/14/aberdeen-the-granite-city-in-crisis/
  2. Putting in your offer via the solicitor isn't final. After the offer is accepted, you do the survey and based on the results of that go ahead with signing the missives which are final. The key to the process is that once your offer is accepted, both sides are under pressure from their solicitors to get the missives done quickly. Since this is generally in both sides interest, it happens fast - a few days...maybe a couple of weeks. If seller or buyer pulls out after missives are signed, there are financial penalties. In a bubble market it used to be common for interested parties to do the survey before putting an offer in. This was expensive if you had to do it on many houses but with a flatter market and the introduction of home reports, it is much less common. I have also read (not 100% sure on this info though) that if your offer is accepted but you don't go ahead with the missives for a spurious reason, the solicitor will no longer work with you (and you may still have to pay them).
  3. It works pretty well in Scotland. You get your finance in order, sort out a solicitor and when you are ready to buy you put in your offer. If accepted, that's it. No more worrying on either side about whether someone will pull out last minute. Takes away a lot of the stress of moving house. Wouldn't have it any other way.
  4. Doesn't matter what the investment product is, putting every penny you own into one thing is rarely a good idea as it makes you vulnerable to shocks, in this case tax changes. It may have worked well for the Wilsons and many others over the years but putting every penny into housing with little room for cash flow problems doesn't make it a good investment.
  5. Parks are great, dog owners that use them - less so. Stick to the paths and keep your eyes on the ground you are stepping on. That advice goes for the whole of Leith in my opinion (and abundant experience).
  6. I moved in the opposite direction and never regretted it - loved living in both countries though. Transfer of wealth is not permanent - but it is generational. At some point those with the money need to sell and won't be able to do so unless their asset is affordable.
  7. Edinburgh. 3% stamp duty threshold Been taking stock recently as I recently purchased a house but remain interested in the market in general and the damage the government is doing to the system (help to sell) House I had on my watch list sold recently - finally checked out the selling price and it was the same or less (can't quite remember) as the offer I'd put in about a year ago. That was just a first offer - if they'd come back to me I might have increased slightly, but they just rejected it outright saying the vendor was seeking much more. So that vendor waited a year and lost in the region of 5-15k. Actually a lot more than that as they bought at peak. I like to think that my offer helped pave the way for the new buyers. In addition there is another house nearby asking more than 100k more - it's a larger house but with other major downsides. I also expressed an interest in that house, but the vendor would not entertain the amount I was thinking of so I refused to view it. (in reality my offer would have been less). Now the asking price has come down in price to a level that the best they could possibly hope for is the price I was considering. But in reality with this new sale going through at 100k less, looks like they are going to have to shave another 10-15% at least off the price. Judging by their recent form - it'll take them about 5 more years to reduce to that level. There's some false optimism around at present but the above helps form my opinion that all remains very unwell in the market - particularly as this is desirable property in Scotland's capital. It is evident that people are most certainly losing money by holding out. It is also clear that patience and playing hardball remain the best buyer strategy for many. It's certainly healthy for the market to see the more unreasonable vendors losing out. Random additional thought: - When I come to sell there is no way I'll be using a "proper" EA - as a buyer I found them to be completely unnecessary (remember this is the Scottish system). I found them all happy to sit back and rely on the portals to do all the hard work for them.
  8. Wow. Quite a rant. And I cant find any flaw in your argument. What you discuss is exactly my experience.
  9. Strange analysis by you guys of channel 4 news. They specifically talked of a danger of another bubble and discussed the view that prices are going up despite wages rising below inflation.
  10. Excellent debate but when the tory said "if people want to buy a house we think it's right that the government helps" I was hoping paxman would ask "what scheme does the govt have for those who want to rent a house"
  11. After 2 years of looking in Edinburgh, recently had offer accepted at 20% off initial asking price, and 10% off reduced "offers over" price. House had been on market for almost as long as I'd been looking, with almost no viewers despite being a highly desirable property. Over the two years, I saw many properties languishing but also saw some sold at prices way above what I would have paid - one in particular shocked me - a probate sale of a nice house priced at maximum but in very poor condition went for above asking price. I found few properties I liked, offered on even fewer, always at 10-20% off - many sellers were in dreamland - time was the best negotiator but I consider myself lucky to have finally bought.
  12. I bought over winter (my preferred time for house hunting as everything is still on from spring but with less viewers (Edinburgh, 3% stamp duty). I got 20% off the (absurd) home report valuation and ended up paying a little less than my first rejected offer. House had been on for ages. The bad news though is that over spring, many of the houses I'd considered way over-priced and which had been on the market more than a year have sold. Not sure yet at what prices but compared to the last year or two, there does seem to be more activity. Note that this is 3% stamp duty threshold houses I am referring to. I'm quite relieved that I managed to buy at the price I did. I have little doubt that some of these current buyers are going to face real problems when interest rates go up, but that hardly helps those trying to buy at present. Obviously I now need to make sure I am not one of those statistics.
  13. It truly is amazing the effort governments go to prop up the housing market, but propping up BTL is just outrageous. I take comfort in the belief that although governments will go to crazy lengths to support house prices (certainly far more than I could have predicated in 2007), there is no policy that will do anything more than provide temporary props to the market. Temporary though the effects are, we're still talking about years as we've seen.
  14. Except that you are benefiting from having a roof over your house, getting gas/electricity/water piped to your door, having your rubbish taken away and a myriad other benefits most people wouldn't like to do without.
  15. One might argue that we don't - we haven't used gallons on the forecourt for 20 years? We still use mph but that is not what the sun is referring to. It doesn't make any sense to me having a headline in gallons unless you are exclusively targeting the over 50s.
  16. There is no housing shortage - just an excess of people. Good on him. He probably used the money I gave him in the 80s to buy the land so technically it's partly mine.
  17. Get 2 friends to arrange viewings. Sorted.
  18. That's pretty much a description of how things were in Dublin, Madrid, Tokyo before their particular bubbles popped. I would suggest the two go together - once ordinary people can't participate in the market, things have already gone too far towards being a bubble. Maybe it is good honest capitalism at its best. I just can't help feeling that the further wage inflation falls behind house prices, the worse the potential problems stored up.
  19. I'm no expert on the London market having never lived there, but to have a house price boom, a collapse of the economy along with another house price boom, then I get very suspicious that it is unsustainable. The factors which sustain it are real enough, but surely temporary - low IEs, UK being perceived as a safe haven, currency rates etc. The fact that BoMaD has entered the lexicon is perhaps also a sign that an unsustainable generational shift of wealth has occurred. Time will tell.
  20. If it looks like a bubble it's probably a bubble (or to be more accurate, a bubble on top of a bubble).
  21. Well maybe more accurately...people at the top and middle of the pyramid are cashing in. In some ways it does make sense to get rid of a BTL to help you own child get a house of their own. Yep. Prices went unsustainably high. They haven't come down a huge amount and are therefore I believe they are still unsustainable. BoMaD and IRs helps keep them where they are - for the moment anyway.
  22. I'm not suggesting that parents are borrowing money to lend to their kids. I'm suggesting that parents who have done well out of their own property and their BTLs are having to give up some of their savings / remortgage / sell second properties to fund a deposit for their kids. It's widely acknowledged that the BoMaD is providing much more funding than previously - that money has to be coming from somewhere. Personally I suspect many parents are oblivious to the irony that the money they made from property is having to go to their kids for housing costs.
  23. It is of course complete nonsense. As deposit requirement go up, demand goes down and prices follow. As the youth find it harder and harder to buy, so the mums and dads are required to subsidise their kids with their own ill-earned property gains. And so the circle starts again.
  24. It's the usual story of capitalism in motion. These companies make hay while the sun shines. They lend out more than they should, starting small but getting more ambitious. Pay their directors fortunes. Once the market is saturated and their customer's, i.e. the country's poor, are in debt to their eyeballs, and repayments stop coming in, the company will fold. Probably just after the directors have sold their shares. And the government all the time will sit on their hands watching it all happen. Now where have we seen this business model before??
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