New Car Sales Fell 17.5% August 2010

[timebandit]

New car sales fell 17.5% August 2010 compared with August 2009

Car dealer link

Edited September 6, 2010 by timebandit

[Guest_James Toney_*]

no shock really, as the labour party bought cars for people,

[TheCountOfNowhere]

Yip, the 200 Billion bribe has run out.

[Mega]

In July BMW sales were UP, Yes UP 13% !!!!!

BMW sell more cars than Toyota+Lexus.............Audi out sells Honda.........Merc out sells Nissan.

Hyundi/Kia well down same for other brands................what does this tell you?

The £200 billion bribe went to the WRONG people!

Mike

[winkie]

It costs enough money to keep a car on the road running.......how can most of us can afford to buy one as well, when you have a perfectly good model that's paid for and gets you from a to b in a reliable and the best most cost effective way.

[profitofdoom]

It costs enough money to keep a car on the road running.......how can most of us can afford to buy one as well, when you have a perfectly good model that's paid for and gets you from a to b in a reliable and the best most cost effective way.

I am in used rather than new but of course we get to hear the "whispers".August is always a tricky month with holidays and the new year identifier plate about to arrive.2010 compare to '09 though was totally different.Scrappage pulled all sorts of people into the market but almost exclusively for entry level models around the £7k mark.So numbers alone only paint part of the picture.The cars sold in '09 would have had an unbievably low profit margin for the dealers.Maybe only 4-5% so you need to sell a lot of them.

I last sold a used car on August 20th - a £1995 Fiesta.There is a climate of fear in the whole market,buyers and sellers.I have stopped buying stock now and this will most likely result in further steep falls in values between now and year end.

[Snugglybear]

The £200 billion bribe went to the WRONG people!

Mike

There's an expression in Welsh that means literally 'water runs into hollows': the nearest English expression I can think of is 'Them as has gets more' or the biblical 'To him that hath shall be given'.

Can't think why anyone believed it would be different this time.

[FreeTrader]

August new car registrations:

2006: 77,961

2007: 77,649

2008: 63,225

2009: 67,006

2010: 55,305

[talksalot81]

I am in used rather than new but of course we get to hear the "whispers".August is always a tricky month with holidays and the new year identifier plate about to arrive.2010 compare to '09 though was totally different.Scrappage pulled all sorts of people into the market but almost exclusively for entry level models around the £7k mark.So numbers alone only paint part of the picture.The cars sold in '09 would have had an unbievably low profit margin for the dealers.Maybe only 4-5% so you need to sell a lot of them.

I last sold a used car on August 20th - a £1995 Fiesta.There is a climate of fear in the whole market,buyers and sellers.I have stopped buying stock now and this will most likely result in further steep falls in values between now and year end.

That is some interesting information. I have suspected something like this to be true but many of the dealers I have heard from claim that times are great. However their high prices seem to mean that there are a lot of cars on the forecourts and not many moving to the roads. I would not be surprised to see a repeat of a couple of years ago and we might be about to see the onset of the double dip in the used car market...

[winkie]

That is some interesting information. I have suspected something like this to be true but many of the dealers I have heard from claim that times are great. However their high prices seem to mean that there are a lot of cars on the forecourts and not many moving to the roads. I would not be surprised to see a repeat of a couple of years ago and we might be about to see the onset of the double dip in the used car market...

...or the margins are so low on the new cars they try to make it up on the part exchanged secondhand.....I wonder how the VAT will affect the new car market?

I recon there might be a few bargains around in two to three years time when the scrappage cars are off loaded as new secondhand.

Edited September 6, 2010 by winkie

[fluffy666]

I am in used rather than new but of course we get to hear the "whispers".August is always a tricky month with holidays and the new year identifier plate about to arrive.2010 compare to '09 though was totally different.Scrappage pulled all sorts of people into the market but almost exclusively for entry level models around the £7k mark.So numbers alone only paint part of the picture.The cars sold in '09 would have had an unbievably low profit margin for the dealers.Maybe only 4-5% so you need to sell a lot of them.

I last sold a used car on August 20th - a £1995 Fiesta.There is a climate of fear in the whole market,buyers and sellers.I have stopped buying stock now and this will most likely result in further steep falls in values between now and year end.

Well, this is the problem; even though I would like to get a better car for the missus and could easily afford it for now, it would mean taking on a financial commitment when the economy does not look in great shape. That and the fixation with the new model Fiesta..

[xux42]

August new car registrations:

2006: 77,961

2007: 77,649

2008: 63,225

2009: 67,006

2010: 55,305

So the huge scrappage subsidy didn't even get the 09 sales figures within 10000 of 07.

You wouldn't stay in business long if you ran a company like that.

[Sour Mash]

New car sales fell 17.5% August 2010 compared with August 2009

Car dealer link

The inevitable result of the futility of pulling sales forward with a government (taxpayer funded) giveaway. 100% predictable.

However, I'm sure this will be 'unexpected' when it hits the mainstream news and it will be trumpeted as an example of how important it is to keep providing 'stimulus' to the economy and how cutting government spending back is going to be responsible for all coming economic ills.

[council dweller]

I am in used rather than new but of course we get to hear the "whispers".August is always a tricky month with holidays and the new year identifier plate about to arrive.2010 compare to '09 though was totally different.Scrappage pulled all sorts of people into the market but almost exclusively for entry level models around the £7k mark.So numbers alone only paint part of the picture.The cars sold in '09 would have had an unbievably low profit margin for the dealers.Maybe only 4-5% so you need to sell a lot of them.

I last sold a used car on August 20th - a £1995 Fiesta.There is a climate of fear in the whole market,buyers and sellers.I have stopped buying stock now and this will most likely result in further steep falls in values between now and year end.

That sounds really bad, please keep us informed. Sounds like one of my old man's stories from 1930....well maybe it will if you have no sales for 3 or 4 months!

[Caveat Mortgagor]

Not surprised. We wanted to replace Mrs Caveats car. Not old enough to qualify for last scrappage scheme or we would have done it before. Sick of waiting for distorted second hand prices to re-adjust after scrappage scheme ramped them all up.

Decided to get a late 10 reg in the hope we could get a bargain as the registration was due to change. Alas, no diesel Yaris available. Factory order only, could not tell us how long it would take. Ditto the Fiesta diesel. By the time they would be available the new reg would have kicked in and the price reduction would not be available.

Our experience would suggest the fall in sales volumes can be at least partly explained by a fall in supply volumes. Maybe the manufacturers are expecting volumes to fall and are leading the way.

Edited September 6, 2010 by Caveat Mortgagor

[Mega]

Am holding off till peek oil, the future is range extenders, battery cars with small jet engine to generate eletric power once the battery is 50% used.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YEz_1cSQdPc

Mike

[council dweller]

Not surprised. We wanted to replace Mrs Caveats car. Not old enough to qualify for last scrappage scheme or we would have done it before. Sick of waiting for distorted second hand prices to re-adjust after scrappage scheme ramped them all up.

Decided to get a late 10 reg in the hope we could get a bargain as the registration was due to change. Alas, no diesel Yaris available. Factory order only, could not tell us how long it would take. Ditto the Fiesta diesel. By the time they would be available the new reg would have kicked in and the price reduction would not be available.

Our experience would suggest the fall in sales volumes can be at least partly explained by a fall in supply volumes. Maybe the manufacturers are expecting volumes to fall and are leading the way.

I did think about using the scappage scheme if our old Rover started giving serious problems (1995) but it's still running well and taking the wife to and from work. Any major problem and we'll look at the new Suzuki swift...probably a good bet.

[koala_bear]

Not surprised. We wanted to replace Mrs Caveats car. Not old enough to qualify for last scrappage scheme or we would have done it before. Sick of waiting for distorted second hand prices to re-adjust after scrappage scheme ramped them all up.

Decided to get a late 10 reg in the hope we could get a bargain as the registration was due to change. Alas, no diesel Yaris available. Factory order only, could not tell us how long it would take. Ditto the Fiesta diesel. By the time they would be available the new reg would have kicked in and the price reduction would not be available.

Our experience would suggest the fall in sales volumes can be at least partly explained by a fall in supply volumes. Maybe the manufacturers are expecting volumes to fall and are leading the way.

If you look the more detailed sales figures, the proportion of new diesel cars sold has been going up rapidly over the last few months. The scrapage scheme lead to the number of new (typically cheaper) petrol cars sold increasing and with the end of the scrapage it has swung back to diesel as the people buying cars now are prepared to pay extra for better fuel economy and lower long term running costs. Therefore diesel engine production capacity is maxed out and they have loads of petrol engine production capacity.Car manufactures tend to share engine design and manufacture especially with diesel engines, so if one plant is at 100% it can effect several manufactures ability to deliver anything soon.

[profitofdoom]

The scrappage scheme cars won't come back into the market.The whole point was that you needed to be the owner of a car AT LEAST ten years old.The typical buyer was a little old lady with a T reg Clio with 30k on the clock and iin pristine condition.These people had money invested earning no interest so they spent £5k on changing to a new car. A sound financial decision of course but forget it for another ten years.

The used market in the last half of 2008 took a heavy plunge.I just looked at my stock book and in October '08 I bought a Mondeo Zetec Diesel "55" plate with 50k for £3500. Two years later the trade price stands at £3675.In the mean time the prices have soared and arte now on a steep downward track,averaging about a 2.5% fall per month since April ,compared with an expected 1%.My guess is that the next 4 months will see at least another 10% fall and more likely 15%.

[Home_To_Roost]

I am in used rather than new but of course we get to hear the "whispers".August is always a tricky month with holidays and the new year identifier plate about to arrive.2010 compare to '09 though was totally different.Scrappage pulled all sorts of people into the market but almost exclusively for entry level models around the £7k mark.So numbers alone only paint part of the picture.The cars sold in '09 would have had an unbievably low profit margin for the dealers.Maybe only 4-5% so you need to sell a lot of them.

I last sold a used car on August 20th - a £1995 Fiesta.There is a climate of fear in the whole market,buyers and sellers.I have stopped buying stock now and this will most likely result in further steep falls in values between now and year end.

There is an independent Alfa dealer in my area. Up until 2009 he always had 20-25 cars in stock, but in recent months that number has been reducing .... he only has 12 now . You're not alone!

[profitofdoom]

There is an independent Alfa dealer in my area. Up until 2009 he always had 20-25 cars in stock, but in recent months that number has been reducing .... he only has 12 now . You're not alone!

The problem is if I buy cars now, say at an average of £5000 the resulting fall by year end could reduce their value by £750 which is more than the average profit .

[Home_To_Roost]

August new car registrations:

2010: 55,305

When was the last time they were this low?

[talksalot81]

The used market in the last half of 2008 took a heavy plunge.I just looked at my stock book and in October '08 I bought a Mondeo Zetec Diesel "55" plate with 50k for £3500. Two years later the trade price stands at £3675.In the mean time the prices have soared and arte now on a steep downward track,averaging about a 2.5% fall per month since April ,compared with an expected 1%.My guess is that the next 4 months will see at least another 10% fall and more likely 15%.

I am a sucker for a nice car and watched closely porsche pricing. You were getting a wide selection of good 911 Turbos for less than £30k and a bit of work might have seen you get as low as £25k without having to go to insane miles. The prices are stubbornly staying a good 20% higher than that... with a tough winter it really seems unlikely to remain there.

[FreeTrader]

When was the last time they were this low?

Going back further:

2000: 72,700

2001: 77,246

2002: 87,425

2003: 89,338

2004: 84,996

2005: 83,066

2006: 77,961

2007: 77,649

2008: 63,225

2009: 67,006

2010: 55,305

August is a very low month though (along with Feb) because of the identifier change. Last September for example there were 368,000 registrations.

[fluffy666]

There is an independent Alfa dealer in my area. Up until 2009 he always had 20-25 cars in stock, but in recent months that number has been reducing .... he only has 12 now . You're not alone!

To be fair, a passer by could have sneezed and half his stock collapsed into a cloud of rust and plastic bits.. that's Italian engineering, you know..