This Just Hit Me Like A Brick

[smiffy1967]

At Chindia's current rate of increase in net oil imports, by 2020 their combined net oil imports will be equivalent to 100% of the combined projected net oil exports from Saudi Arabia, Russia, Norway, Iran and the UAE.

Thus, our forecast is that the US is well on its way to becoming free of its dependence on foreign sources of oil--just not in the way that most people anticipated.

Taken from the oil drum

[Timm]

At Chindia's current rate of increase in net oil imports, by 2020 their combined net oil imports will be equivalent to 100% of the combined projected net oil exports from Saudi Arabia, Russia, Norway, Iran and the UAE.

Thus, our forecast is that the US is well on its way to becoming free of its dependence on foreign sources of oil--just not in the way that most people anticipated.

Taken from the oil drum

That would explain why an Austrian response to recession is not an option.

[Guest spp]

Chindia makes up 1/3 of the worlds population.

They are awake and the world is going to be a much different place over the next few years.

ohh but green energy bla bla...one catch...the rare earths are in China.

You think they will sell them to you for $'s any time soon?

They don't need the U.S and U.K anymore. Time to get back to basics for us!

[eightiesgirly]

At Chindia's current rate of increase in net oil imports, by 2020 their combined net oil imports will be equivalent to 100% of the combined projected net oil exports from Saudi Arabia, Russia, Norway, Iran and the UAE.

Thus, our forecast is that the US is well on its way to becoming free of its dependence on foreign sources of oil--just not in the way that most people anticipated.

Taken from the oil drum

Oh dear!! Not enough cake to go round the party? Someone is gonna be p*ssed. How long 'till the bitch slappin starts?

[lowrentyieldmakessense(honest!)]

That would explain why an Austrian response to recession is not an option.

why

[tomwatkins]

Chindia makes up 1/3 of the worlds population.

They are awake and the world is going to be a much different place over the next few years.

ohh but green energy bla bla...one catch...the rare earths are in China.

You think they will sell them to you for $'s any time soon?

They don't need the U.S and U.K anymore. Time to get back to basics for us!

So there is no natural gas in the US? Try 500 years worth. Watch this space.

[Errol]

A shortage of resources always leads to war.

[Guest spp]

So there is no natural gas in the US? Try 500 years worth. Watch this space.

Waiting and watching.

Like I said...back to basics.

Though I feel Errol might be correct.

[Realistbear]

That would explain why an Austrian response to recession is not an option.

Are you talking about "the" Austrian response as in Lebenstraum and the rise of the Third Reich?

WW2 cured Austria-Germany's recession and post-inflation slump but it did cause a bit of a kerfuffle for everyone.

[pilchardthecat]

At Chindia's current rate of increase in net oil imports, by 2020 their combined net oil imports will be equivalent to 100% of the combined projected net oil exports from Saudi Arabia, Russia, Norway, Iran and the UAE.

Thus, our forecast is that the US is well on its way to becoming free of its dependence on foreign sources of oil--just not in the way that most people anticipated.

Taken from the oil drum

Has it occured to you that the current rate of increase might not continue until 2020?

Your entire post is based on the premise that it will. On what basis do you make this assumption?

[Timm]

why

I'm glad you asked me that.

The thing about allowing a natural contraction is that it tends to be followed by a strong recovery after resources have been better allocated. But what if we simply don't have enough of one group of resources? In that case a long, slow unwind might seem almost sensible, as people slowly got used to a lower standard of living.

Of course, there are huge flaws to this idea, such as an increasing wealth gap etc, but I think it might be worth some further consideration.

So there is no natural gas in the US? Try 500 years worth. Watch this space.

That would utterly scotch my theory.

Any evidence?

[The Bull Trap]

Any evidence?

My ex girlfriend is practically living in America now. I forget her job title, but she's a geologist who finds oil and gas, or helps work out how to get at it, or something. Either way, she seems pretty confident they have a feck load of resources out there. Cunning plan using up everyone elses before your own, right?

[eightiesgirly]

I'm glad you asked me that.

The thing about allowing a natural contraction is that it tends to be followed by a strong recovery after resources have been better allocated. But what if we simply don't have enough of one group of resources? In that case a long, slow unwind might seem almost sensible, as people slowly got used to a lower standard of living.

Of course, there are huge flaws to this idea, such as an increasing wealth gap etc, but I think it might be worth some further consideration.

That would utterly scotch my theory.

Any evidence?

http://www.eia.doe.gov/oil_gas/natural_gas/data_publications/crude_oil_natural_gas_reserves/cr.html

Good reading!

[scepticus]

The thing about allowing a natural contraction is that it tends to be followed by a strong recovery after resources have been better allocated. But what if we simply don't have enough of one group of resources?

that has been my thesis since I started posting here. The limited resources in future may be oil, land, labour or all three, but definitely financial capital won't be among them.

unless we collectively desire that outcome.

[northwestsmith2]

Place a bet on the future price of oil and hedge it in any currency, doesn't seem too clear cut when it's hard cash on the line.

['Bart']

Are you talking about "the" Austrian response as in Lebenstraum and the rise of the Third Reich?

Hopefully nothing quite so extreme RB, I hope that it refers to the Austrian School of Economics.

[scottbeard]

At Chindia's current rate of increase in net oil imports, by 2020 their combined net oil imports will be equivalent to 100% of the combined projected net oil exports from Saudi Arabia, Russia, Norway, Iran and the UAE.

In 1896 there were 20 cars in Britain. Now there are more like 30 million. That's a growth rate of around 13%pa, meaning that by 2020 we'd expect over 100 million cars in Britain, more than 1 per person!

You can't just extrapolate a projection assuming "all other things remain equal" because in real life they don't.

That said, of course there is only so much oil, and our share has to go down.

Edited August 17, 2010 by scottbeard

[Timm]

http://www.eia.doe.g...eserves/cr.html

Good reading!

Thanks. What level of credence do you attach to this?

that has been my thesis since I started posting here. The limited resources in future may be oil, land, labour or all three, but definitely financial capital won't be among them.

unless we collectively desire that outcome.

Hopefully nothing quite so extreme RB, I hope that it refers to the Austrian School of Economics.

Of course!

I just assumed RB was being cute and ignored him.

[smiffy1967]

At Chindia's current rate of increase in net oil imports, by 2020 their combined net oil imports will be equivalent to 100% of the combined projected net oil exports from Saudi Arabia, Russia, Norway, Iran and the UAE.

Thus, our forecast is that the US is well on its way to becoming free of its dependence on foreign sources of oil--just not in the way that most people anticipated.

Taken from the oil drum

bump

thought this was important