Flat Bear Posted August 5, 2009 Share Posted August 5, 2009 What I posted yesterdayExactly - I WAS WRONG (edit; just re-read it I said "some forecasters have predicted..." so actually I was not wrong )I was convinced we would have a deflationary outcome - if this had played out naturally It will not now end in the biggest global asset deflationary bust of all time - quite the opposite.... Hyperinflation is inevitable I advise all to read this thread: http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/ind...p;#entry2056537 That troll bruce banner has conveniently bumped it to the top of the economics section. Thanks BB You know, SOME of what you say and your conclusions seem plausable and thought provoking and I do think you are correct in some of your analysis (although you do repeat yourself). Maybe it is your antagonists who are in denial or maybe it is you or maybe all of you? and me? Please take this criticism in a positive way. Maybe you are not asking the right questions? Maybe you are seeing conclusions out of self interest? Maybe you are too close to the situation and need to step back? Maybe you are overestimating some factors whilst dismissing other which do have a real influence? Maybe you are a teeny weeny bit Dogmatic about this particular issue? What I am sure about That there is no certainty. This I am absolutely certain about. That events won't play out exactly as you describe, again I have absolute certainty. What questions should we re-ask so we can draw conclusions? Do we believe this government is in control? Or have events and previous decisions they have made tell us they are incompetent? Have I got enough information or enough knowledge about this to be reasonably certain? How has massive influxes of money into an economy affected prices of assets and commodites historically in the short and longer term? Has it previously made a difference how this money was introduced (ie through bank or other etc)? Have I got enough information or enough knowledge about this to be reasonably certain of a likely outcome? So just these two questions I have lost count of the number of times I have been dumbstruck by the sheer stupidity and naivity of many of this governments proposals. You simply could not make most of it up. I am fairly certain the people who run the economy are twits. I do not believe they will have any control when swings in inflation take place. They will blame "unforeseen" events whilst they hike up interest rates cut benefits and services and are forced to lay off 100,000s of public sector employees. Even the subsequent social unrest will be blamed on something or someone else. Inflation is the increase in the money supply. Price increases are a result. I have looked back at previous situations where there has been increases in the money supply and in most cases it is fairly certain inflation is a result. But what about Japan? Japan was, and had, a totally different situation than we see ourselves in and did they actually pump money into the system? or did they just give governmental support and assurances to the financial and larger manufacturing sectors? What money is actually being pumped into the "system" in this country? How much of it is simply being used to shore up ailing bank balance sheets? (Affectually been given to larger financial instituations as fresh collatoral, like the bank of mum and dad where Darling is mum and Brown is dad and Northern Rock was their financially wayward offspring) Do I really know where this "QE" money has gone? where and what it is being used for? and thus can I say with any certainty how much affect it will have on inflation? No I don't really know enough. Does anyone else? What I do know is it will have at least some inflationary consequences, that it will cause distortions especially in the financial markets and it will weaken with a possibility of destroying the uk economy. I also fairly sure that the ensueing inflation will not happen over night or within a year but will appear when least expected and when it has been forgotten about. Once inflation is released it takes decades to get back in the bag. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MOP Posted August 5, 2009 Share Posted August 5, 2009 Can I ask how you came to this estimation? (I am assuming you are counting 12 zeros as a trillion). Is this your estimation of how much you think they will spend once all this is over? Is this a future prediction?It might be easier on everyone to miss out the zeros. I have been struggling to find a link as to how much has been QE'd in America. I did find this which if I understood correctly suggests they are buying $1450 billion in mortgage backed securities, and $300 billion in US treasuries. This was back in June though http://www.american.com/archive/2009/june/...asing-challenge Do you have a more up to date or clearer source, or have I misunderstood (which is equally possible). I am a concerned that you have exagerated a bit, but you seem to know your stuff so I am sure you will be able to provide more information. Try to keep up at the back please. U.S. Bailout Costs May Reach $23.7 Trillion, TARP Inspector Says http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/ind...=120451&hl= Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neverland Posted August 5, 2009 Share Posted August 5, 2009 (edited) Starts getting marginal from here on in in nominal terms I think.Perhaps another modest slide after this summer bounce into the winter with real terms lows grinding down over the next couple of years. But I think it will start becoming more a question of local markets, aside from 'commodity' housing and 2 bed flat developments, where we're going to continue to see developers and sales companies like DylanHarvey go bust for a while yet I'm sure. There is also the issue of negotiating a bigger discount in a falling market to consider as well as time to retirement and other personal issues. I'm not very bothered personally - I like the freedom of not owning but I'm sure we haven't yet seen the back of QE with the election shortly to take a more prominent role and sterling has risen 25% since Jim Rogers told us it was in the bin. But in nominal terms, as we go into the winter I think we'll have had the best of it. Will we have much lower nominals and better rates into Autumn/Winter 2010? I find it hard to see how we will. I'm comfortable with Harrison's 14 up and 4 down model, giving a further 2 years 'ish but that last 5-10% average fall starts to become a trade-off with other factors I think. 2p 'orth. Don't shoot me. I think you are probably right Actually we own our house without debt and didnt STR for the similar reasons to you - we like the security of not renting! Anyway lets not get into that old cul de sac.. There could be steep falls in house prices though if interest rates pick up quicker than expected What could cause that? - inflation - buyers of gilts demanding higher returns for perceived risk Either is plausible, no? Edited August 5, 2009 by Neverland Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
loginandtonic Posted August 5, 2009 Share Posted August 5, 2009 Once inflation is released it takes decades to get back in the bag. just like a pack of tassimo t-discs in fact. see the other thread now, the City pundits are majority forecasting QE ends at 150bn (which is enough of a dangerous punt anyway innit) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thedebtisreal Posted August 5, 2009 Share Posted August 5, 2009 (edited) Learn a lesson. Nah. HPC until I die. In a penniless hole. Who's with me? Edited August 5, 2009 by thedebtisreal Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MOP Posted August 5, 2009 Share Posted August 5, 2009 You have been humiliated on here. If a HPC was going to happen you would be seeing drops month in month out. You nearly managed to topple the housing market with your negative spin but we didn't allow it to happen. Homeowner/BTL's 1. Renters/dreamers 0. You're smashed on the rocks. It's all over. Put your hands up and admit it. I'll have more respect for you. Anyone fancy a dinner party at mine? I'd like to tell you about how much money my house went up this month. You just know you're going to be hammered into the ground now. Do you remember a few months ago how cocky you were saying stuff like ' The bloke at work said houses will go up soon?' Remember all your snidey responses and smug comments? Remember how clever you all thought you were? It's karma. What goes around comes around. Now you have yours. You shouldn't wish ill on other people. Learn a lesson. Brain Damaged. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
spivT Posted August 5, 2009 Share Posted August 5, 2009 (edited) A good piece in MoneyWeeks Money Morning emailIs the house price crash over? So what’s going on? Is the house price crash over? We don’t think so. There’s certainly been a bounce in prices. But there are good reasons to believe that this is unsustainable. We believe that the price of property is largely set by supply and demand for credit. In other words, the more you can borrow, and the more relaxed banks are about giving it to you, the higher house prices will go. The boom years demonstrated this amply. Products such as the above-mentioned “Together†home loan, and the rising number of interest-only loans taken out, were fantastic examples of the phenomenon. But right now, physical supply and demand is having an impact. Because interest rates are so low, the number of forced sellers has fallen sharply. The idea of moving house when the future looks uncertain is also no doubt making many people stay put. So the number of houses coming on to the market has dived. According to figures from Henry Pryor of HousingExpert.com, the number of properties coming on to the market has fallen from “a peak in February 2004 of over 7,400 per day to just 3,100 today.†Meanwhile, the number of sales has dived from a “peak of 5,200 per day in the summer of 2007… to just 1,300 last Christmas†before recovering a little during the “spring selling season to 2,500 a dayâ€. So both the number of sellers and number of buyers has dived – but the gap between the two has closed. So you’ve got more buyers chasing fewer properties. And if all of those buyers are cash-rich and fussy, they’re only going to be chasing the best homes on the market. That suggests that the average price paid is going to be higher than you’d see in a more typical market with a larger number of transactions. As Pryor puts it, “if there were just one home on the market and two buyers in the whole country then estate agents and mortgage brokers would no doubt jump up and down and point excitedly at the excess of buyers and predict a rise in prices as a result… but can we really base the health of the nation’s housing stock on this?†This house price bounce won't last The point is that this can’t last. As David Smith of property consultancy Carter Jonas puts it: “There is a stark shortage of property on the market and this, above all, is driving the rebound we are seeing. The worry is that this shortage of property will cause buyers to sit on the fence again, as they shy away from committing to a purchase at a higher price.†But the other point is that sellers who’ve been holding off may see prices rising and decide to stick their homes on the market. The trouble is, while the number of sellers can rise easily, the number of buyers may not go up to match. That comes back to the availability of credit. To keep house prices propped up where they were, the market needed lenders like Northern Rock, who would extend reckless loans at ridiculous rates to desperate first-time buyers. Or their counterparts at Bradford & Bingley, who would do the same for amateur property speculators. Those lenders are now out of business as far as the housing market is concerned. And no one is coming in to take their place. That’s why this bounce is going to be temporary. that article is exactly what i'm thinking/hoping is happening, although it's hard to imagine the govt. won't keep the foot on the intervention pedal until they get booted out. :angry: By govt. i also mean central bank. feckers. :angry: Edited August 5, 2009 by spivtastic Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bruce Banner Posted August 5, 2009 Share Posted August 5, 2009 Whatever you throw at me. Whatever you say on this thread , you, me and everyone reading this will know that when you saw that data today your heart sank like the Titanic. If it had been a drop this thread would be full of smug comments, not back peddling crap like now. Next on the menu. Starting next month. Rent rises. This will be the worst 5 years of your lives. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pie-eater Posted August 5, 2009 Share Posted August 5, 2009 Whatever you throw at me. Whatever you say on this thread , you, me and everyone reading this will know that when you saw that data today your heart sank like the Titanic. If it had been a drop this thread would be full of smug comments, not back peddling crap like now. Next on the menu. Starting next month. Rent rises. This will be the worst 5 years of your lives. You vile little turd. The figures were expected as a result of Nationwide's Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bloo Loo Posted August 5, 2009 Share Posted August 5, 2009 Whatever you throw at me. Whatever you say on this thread , you, me and everyone reading this will know that when you saw that data today your heart sank like the Titanic. If it had been a drop this thread would be full of smug comments, not back peddling crap like now. Next on the menu. Starting next month. Rent rises. This will be the worst 5 years of your lives. are you having schardenfreud? I though I told you, its ugly, it upsets posters and gets you banned. I see no case you make, just a regurge of figures. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joey Buttafueco Jr Posted August 5, 2009 Author Share Posted August 5, 2009 The figures were expected as a result of Nationwide's Can you explain your logic please? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yellerkat Posted August 5, 2009 Share Posted August 5, 2009 (edited) Here comes Sibley again, DUCK! ED: He's gone away again, thank feck. Edited August 5, 2009 by yellerkat Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ronpember Posted August 5, 2009 Share Posted August 5, 2009 Can you explain your logic please? I think he means that given that Nwide's figures were positive then it might be reasonably expected that Halifax's would be similar... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pie-eater Posted August 5, 2009 Share Posted August 5, 2009 I think he means that given that Nwide's figures were positive then it might be reasonably expected that Halifax's would be similar... Aye, in my non-scientific mind I expected a similar figure. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joey Buttafueco Jr Posted August 5, 2009 Author Share Posted August 5, 2009 I think he means that given that Nwide's figures were positive then it might be reasonably expected that Halifax's would be similar... I thought just last week people were complaining about the disparity..... The expectation that I saw this morning on Bloomberg at 06:59 was 0.6%, therefore 1.1% wasn't expected, it was better than expected Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pie-eater Posted August 5, 2009 Share Posted August 5, 2009 You lot love dishing it out don't you? You slag of sheeple who are just normal folks trying to make a life for themselves. BTL landlords who are just get up and go people trying to make money. In reality you want a pice of the action yourselves. You'd be the first boasting how much you made by waiting for a crash if it had worked for you. I'm so glad it failed. At least the people who worked and saved didn't lose out. It wouldn't have been fair if that had happened. Well done to the government for stopping it. No, I just called you a turd for your post wishing ill on people. I don't think I've ever responded to a single post of yours before. I actually own a BTL, but that's another matter Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MOP Posted August 5, 2009 Share Posted August 5, 2009 I thought just last week people were complaining about the disparity..... The expectation that I saw this morning on Bloomberg at 06:59 was 0.6%, therefore 1.1% wasn't expected, it was better than expected Why have you not switched from Bear to Bull yet? You continue to revel in Bullish news and yet remain a supposed Bear? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joey Buttafueco Jr Posted August 5, 2009 Author Share Posted August 5, 2009 Why have you not switched from Bear to Bull yet? You continue to revel in Bullish news and yet remain a supposed Bear? I revel in correcting people that speak falsehoods, be they bullish or bearish. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
piece of paper Posted August 5, 2009 Share Posted August 5, 2009 You have been humiliated on here. If a HPC was going to happen you would be seeing drops month in month out. You nearly managed to topple the housing market with your negative spin but we didn't allow it to happen. Homeowner/BTL's 1. Renters/dreamers 0. You're smashed on the rocks. It's all over. Put your hands up and admit it. I'll have more respect for you. Anyone fancy a dinner party at mine? I'd like to tell you about how much money my house went up this month. You just know you're going to be hammered into the ground now. Do you remember a few months ago how cocky you were saying stuff like ' The bloke at work said houses will go up soon?' Remember all your snidey responses and smug comments? Remember how clever you all thought you were? It's karma. What goes around comes around. Now you have yours. You shouldn't wish ill on other people. Learn a lesson. There are special things that I never knew I was missing. Sibley's respect - how have I lived without it? p-o-p Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MOP Posted August 5, 2009 Share Posted August 5, 2009 (edited) I revel in correcting people that speak falsehoods, be they bullish or bearish. Nah. You revel in bullish news. You are more bull than bear these days. Much more. Edited August 5, 2009 by MOP Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morgs Posted August 5, 2009 Share Posted August 5, 2009 You have been humiliated on here. If a HPC was going to happen you would be seeing drops month in month out. You nearly managed to topple the housing market with your negative spin but we didn't allow it to happen. Homeowner/BTL's 1. Renters/dreamers 0. You're smashed on the rocks. It's all over. Put your hands up and admit it. I'll have more respect for you. Anyone fancy a dinner party at mine? I'd like to tell you about how much money my house went up this month. You just know you're going to be hammered into the ground now. Do you remember a few months ago how cocky you were saying stuff like ' The bloke at work said houses will go up soon?' Remember all your snidey responses and smug comments? Remember how clever you all thought you were? It's karma. What goes around comes around. Now you have yours. You shouldn't wish ill on other people. Learn a lesson. Classic Sibley. A little OTT, but not far from reality. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bruce Banner Posted August 5, 2009 Share Posted August 5, 2009 Classic Sibley. A little OTT, but not far from reality. Morgs Group: New Members Posts: 13 Joined: 24-July 09 Member No.: 21,865 Bull or Bear? Neither Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yellerkat Posted August 5, 2009 Share Posted August 5, 2009 Fundamentals will trump everything in the end. Even - or especially? - Sibleghhh. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fudge Posted August 5, 2009 Share Posted August 5, 2009 You have been humiliated on here. If a HPC was going to happen you would be seeing drops month in month out. You nearly managed to topple the housing market with your negative spin but we didn't allow it to happen. Homeowner/BTL's 1. Renters/dreamers 0. You're smashed on the rocks. It's all over. Put your hands up and admit it. I'll have more respect for you. Anyone fancy a dinner party at mine? I'd like to tell you about how much money my house went up this month. You just know you're going to be hammered into the ground now. Do you remember a few months ago how cocky you were saying stuff like ' The bloke at work said houses will go up soon?' Remember all your snidey responses and smug comments? Remember how clever you all thought you were? It's karma. What goes around comes around. Now you have yours. You shouldn't wish ill on other people. Learn a lesson. Boy are some people gonna be disappointed when house prices resume their plunge downwards next month. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joey Buttafueco Jr Posted August 5, 2009 Author Share Posted August 5, 2009 Nah. You revel in bullish news. You are more bull than bear these days. Much more. I don't recall revelling in any economic news of late. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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