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Joey Buttafueco Jr

Halifax +1.1% Mom, -12.1% Yoy

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Have you got a link please? Can't see on BBC...

Need a official link so you can cream yourself all over it ? ........ What with you deserting to bull status now :rolleyes:

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Link Halifax

The house price to earnings ratio – a key affordability measure - has declined from a peak of 5.84 in July 2007 to an estimated 4.36 in July 2009. The long-term average is 4.0.

In another thread at the weekend that related to an article in the Telegraph titled " House Prices Still Falling" :

House prices are still falling

It may be true that the path to true love does not always run smooth. That is also true of house price declines. Last week the Nationwide reported that house prices rose by 1.3pc in July. Great, the slump in house prices is over. Actually, probably not.

By David Blanchflower

Published: 9:49PM BST 01 Aug 2009

Three of the last seven months of data from Nationwide have been down and four up. The latest data from the Halifax show four down months and only two up. So what is going on?

First, these data are seasonally adjusted by both the Halifax and the Nationwide. That is to account for the fact that there are regular monthly patterns every year. This is a problem now as patterns in the past when house prices were rising aren't very helpful in a period of falling prices.

Second, estimates of monthly house price changes aren't very accurate when the number of house sales are small, so you get lots of variation in prices each month. Over the period June 1989 to July 1995, for example, when average house prices fell from £70,095 to £60,965 there were 23 months where prices increased and three where they were flat and 48 when they fell. ......

......How much further will house prices fall? The best guide is the ratio between average earnings and average house prices. This is a measure of affordability. Between 1983 and 2001, before house prices started to climb, the ratio averaged 3.62. By July 2007 the ratio had reached 5.84; it has subsequently fallen back to 4.33.

To get back to the long-run average of 3.62 from 5.84 implies a drop of 38pc. So far we are down 26pc, so it looks like there is more to go. The possibility is that house price falls will be even greater than that if the ratio falls below its long-run trend before recovering, as it did in the early 1990s.

House prices probably have a good way to drop yet. Lots of people may tell you otherwise − estate agents, mortgage brokers and bankers − because they have something to gain. My advice is just to look at the data.

I confirmed probably that I am the bear with little brain when I asked, what connection, if any, a 38% drop in loan to income has to the % drop in property values?

If Benjamin Disraeli were alive today, living in an average £153,000 house in Norfolk rather than Hughenden Manor in Buckinghamshire, and holding bank, telecoms and media shares alongside his Anglo-Mexican and South African mining speculations, he might be tempted to reorder his classification of “lies, damned lies, and statisticsâ€. Because the latest market data seem anything but mendacious. ......

......Homeowners would be even more stupid to believe those house price rises were based on anything like a meaningful sample size. Over the periods covered by the indices, sale volumes were down by around 75 per cent, compared with the 10-year average – and down by 50 per cent on last summer. As former statistics software vendor Nick Hopkinson, now of Property Portfolio Rescue, put it: “Such an illiquid housing market makes looking at monthly price trends statistically meaningless.†It’s not sufficient data for Paul Samter of the Council of Mortgage Lenders, who this week admitted: “The outlook is still sluggish.â€

Any statistic can lie if the sample size is small enough. Take house price inflation at Hughenden Manor. Technically, it is 1.1 per cent a year. But there are only two available data points: a Domesday Book valuation of £10 in 1086, and Disraeli’s purchase price of £35,000 in 1847 – which he could only afford with a 70 per cent loan-to-value mortgage from Lord Henry Bentinck!

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Indeed, the specifics of each monthly change are unimportant.

But much like when prices were tumbling on these low transaction levels, the trend is what's important.

And the trend is up.

Brown has succeeded, albeit temporarily, in his mission to rescue the housing market at all costs, no matter how expensive that may end up being.

Banks rescued, taxpayers dumped with "bad banks" while shareholders and directors take the spoils of the "good banks", limitless money printing, zero interest rates.

Whilst this may only be delaying the problem and making it worse, it's time to acknowledge that this game is massively skewed against anyone who missed Labour's Good Ship Housing Boom.

Brown is the very worst of the housing bulls, like the BTL scum he spawned, he simply must keep the housing market afloat.

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Thanks - well pleased. Buying a house this month - happy days are here again!!

mind you dont get gazumped

with unemployment tumbling and new businesses starting and making massive profits every day, property is going to be more and more in demand and we'll look back upon these days as very cheap prices,

remember we are a very rich nation because we can just print whatever we need and there are no consequences for that, none at all, Gordon Brown's ideas work perfectly just as always.

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Indeed, the specifics of each monthly change are unimportant.

But much like when prices were tumbling on these low transaction levels, the trend is what's important.

And the trend is up.

Brown has succeeded, albeit temporarily, in his mission to rescue the housing market at all costs, no matter how expensive that may end up being.

Banks rescued, taxpayers dumped with "bad banks" while shareholders and directors take the spoils of the "good banks", limitless money printing, zero interest rates.

Whilst this may only be delaying the problem and making it worse, it's time to acknowledge that this game is massively skewed against anyone who missed Labour's Good Ship Housing Boom.

Brown is the very worst of the housing bulls, like the BTL scum he spawned, he simply must keep the housing market afloat.

Brown, and the rest of the world, have used up all their bullets.

Yes, it's 'worked' for now (if 12% YoY falls is working) but if this rescue doesn't return the wider economy to prosperity then it will be a brief respite.

The true meat of this mess is yet to come. :lol:

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Brown has succeeded, albeit temporarily, in his mission to rescue the housing market at all costs, no matter how expensive that may end up being.

I suspect you may be right...

The spin-machine is full-on this morning:

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...id=aOcuZZXwP3AE

U.K. July House Prices Jump Almost Twice as Much as Forecast

Aug. 5 (Bloomberg) -- U.K. house prices jumped almost twice as much as economists forecast in July as demand for property increased and the recession eased, a report by Halifax showed.

Home values climbed 1.1 percent to an average of 159,623 pounds ($269,850), after falling 0.4 percent in June, the division of Lloyds Banking Group Plc said in an e-mailed statement today. The median forecast of 15 economists in a Bloomberg News survey was for a 0.6 percent increase. From a year earlier, prices dropped 9.9 percent.

“Demand for homes has risen, albeit from a very low base, since the start of the year, driven by improvements in affordability and low interest rates,†Martin Ellis, an economist at Halifax, said in the statement. “Higher demand has combined with the low levels of property available for sale to boost sales activity from exceptionally low levels and support prices over the past few months.â€

Consumer confidence rose to the highest level in more than a year last month as house prices stopped falling, Nationwide Building Society said in a separate report today. The Bank of England will decide tomorrow whether to add to the 125 billion pounds it has printed to buy assets as it gauges if it has done enough to combat Britain’s worst recession in a generation.

U.K. gross domestic product fell 0.8 percent in the second quarter after declining the most in five decades in the first three months of the year. Jobless claims rose to the highest in 12 years in June.

Prices have now fallen by less than 1 percent so far this year, Ellis said in the statement.

Also

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...id=aMSLs5dgA88k

U.K. Consumer Confidence Rose to the Highest in a Year in July

Aug. 5 (Bloomberg) -- U.K. consumer confidence rose to the highest level in more than a year last month as house prices stopped falling, Nationwide Building Society said.

An index of sentiment climbed to 60 in July, the highest since May 2008 and up from 59 in June, Britain’s biggest customer-owned lender said in an e-mailed statement released today.

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Guest Daddy Bear
noel is right

is on sky news

1.1%

:angry:

The trend is your friend

House prices rising, says Halifax

Demand for homes is rising, the Halifax said.

House prices are now rising, according to the latest survey from the Halifax mortgage lender.

The cost of the average house went up by 1.1% in July to £159,623.

Prices in the three months to July were 0.8% higher than in the previous three months, the first increase in the underlying trend since October 2007.

The annual rate of house price decline has now shrunk to just 12%, from 15% in June, moving in a similar direction to that of the Nationwide's rival survey.

"Demand for homes has risen, albeit from a very low base, since the start of the year, driven by improvements in affordability and low interest rates," said Martin Ellis, the Halifax's housing economist.

"Higher demand has combined with the low levels of property available for sale to boost sales activity from exceptionally low levels and support prices over the past few months," he added.

Caution reigns

Last week the Nationwide building society also said prices had risen in July, with the underlying trend as measured by its own survey moving upwards at the fastest rate since February 2007.

Despite this apparent turnaround in the UK's dramatic house price slump, both lenders are being very cautious and both are refusing to predict that prices will now keep on going up.

Many properties that might have been put up for sale are being let to tenants instead.

And some homeowners in financial difficulty are only avoiding repossession because the record low level of interest rates has dramatically reduced the burden of making their monthly mortgage repayments.

Experts say that if the apparent revival of prices encourages more people to try to sell their homes, or interest rates rise, then the balance of supply and demand could tilt, leading to a renewed downturn in prices.

This Re-inflation will end in big tears

The sentiment is what's important

This is just adding to tipping point.

Hyperinflation on its way...

The truth is all here

http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/ind...howtopic=121543

Moved to economics forum as mods don't want you to hear the truth.

Add the halifax figs and this graph is even more concerning.

Sadly sentiment is going the other way.

Get out of CASH but don't get into housing (unless 30-40% off !!)

_46088687_mortgage_lending_226gr.gif

_46130953_house_prices_30_jul09.gif

Edited by Daddy Bear

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Brown, and the rest of the world, have used up all their bullets.

Yes, it's 'worked' for now (if 12% YoY falls is working) but if this rescue doesn't return the wider economy to prosperity then it will be a brief respite.

The true meat of this mess is yet to come. :lol:

Agreed. Huge `walking on water` exercise underway. Do you feel lucky?

The recoveryless recovereh continues!

Edited by HostPaul TAFKA Rover2000

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i'll level with the forum - i'm not so much worried about bubble house prices as absurd and wrong as that is and was the whole point of this site - i am worried about the consequences for all of us of this very unnatural cycle propped up with make believe money and huge borrowings, i really am scared stiff of the consequences of where a govt has massively indebted us and printed vast, vast sums just to stop banks from feeling the effects of a property return to fair value, i just fear the fallout from this intervention, because there is no such thing as a free lunch and the govt has given every property owner [bank] and ponzi the biggest of all lunches and then a huge dinner on top.

the vomiting cant be far behind.

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Guest The Relaxation Suite

Unemployment up, wages down, welfare cut, Britain has bleakest future of all OECD countries, North Sea oil way past peak and running out, tax increases, and soon, rate rises. And the moronic British think house prices are rising because 16 houses sold last month.

God help us.

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Guest Daddy Bear
i'll level with the forum - i'm not so much worried about bubble house prices as absurd and wrong as that is and was the whole point of this site - i am worried about the consequences for all of us of this very unnatural cycle propped up with make believe money and huge borrowings, i really am scared stiff of the consequences of where a govt has massively indebted us and printed vast, vast sums just to stop banks from feeling the effects of a property return to fair value, i just fear the fallout from this intervention, because there is no such thing as a free lunch and the govt has given every property owner [bank] and ponzi the biggest of all lunches and then a huge dinner on top.

the vomiting cant be far behind.

i am worried about the consequences for all of us of this very unnatural cycle propped up with make believe money and huge borrowings, i really am scared stiff of the consequences of where a govt has massively indebted us and printed vast, vast sums .....

And so you should be

No turning back now in US or UK

This is way past HPC now

Tipping Point will come sudden

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Unemployment up, wages down, welfare cut, Britain has bleakest future of all OECD countries, North Sea oil way past peak and running out, tax increases, and soon, rate rises. And the moronic British think house prices are rising because 16 houses sold last month.

God help us.

The biggest question of the last year has always been inflationary crash vs deflationary crash. Personally, I always understood that everyone agreed that deflation was inevitable unless the government intervened, but that the government could create any amount of inflation they wanted.

So the argument was always about whether or not the government would inflate away the debt or not.

Surely this is just more evidence that the government is going to use inflation to 'solve' their problems?

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And so you should be

No turning back now in US or UK

This is way past HPC now

Tipping Point will come sudden

well DB i hope i am wrong, but when i cannot logically understand how something can play out safely then my mind cannot help but fear a catastrophe. at the moment, looking at brown's hopeless track record and ditto king's clueless management of the bubble, i feel that its a cruel joke for them to now be the physicians. their faces scare me, their over-confidence scares me, their past incompetence terrifies me. i also think stateside they are equally lost.

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Surely this is just more evidence that the government is going to use inflation to 'solve' their problems?

And who could blame it given that the greater part of the national debt is denominated in sterling...?

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Guest KingCharles1st

"There's a brown Bull in the trap- la la la la la "

"There's a brown Bull in the trap- la- la la la la la "

"Brown Bull in the trap la la la la la"

"And he looks like the pillock in the pub- pub pub"

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Guest Daddy Bear
The biggest question of the last year has always been inflationary crash vs deflationary crash. Personally, I always understood that everyone agreed that deflation was inevitable unless the government intervened, but that the government could create any amount of inflation they wanted.

So the argument was always about whether or not the government would inflate away the debt or not.

Surely this is just more evidence that the government is going to use inflation to 'solve' their problems?

well DB i hope i am wrong, but when i cannot logically understand how something can play out safely then my mind cannot help but fear a catastrophe. at the moment, looking at brown's hopeless track record and ditto king's clueless management of the bubble, i feel that its a cruel joke for them to now be the physicians. their faces scare me, their over-confidence scares me, their past incompetence terrifies me. i also think stateside they are equally lost.

I hope I am wrong too.

The most important thing for people to realise is that there CASH should be protected.

The way I figure it is too many people have made too much CASH out of this bubble and the value of the cash must now be destroyed.

Due to lending and printing there is a huge amount of cash sitting out there - it's looking for a home - before it's value is destroyed.

PAYBACK time is coming.

DB

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Just had a look at Rirghtmove for my postcode and 3 mile radius. In 14 days only 5 houses sstc. 46 new ones on. 24 price drops. 3 reavailable.

Massive drop off in activity.....

This may show up in the Haliwide figures soon but if only two houses are selling each month and they're big ones, it'll look like massive HPI.

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Guest Daddy Bear
Just had a look at Rirghtmove for my postcode and 3 mile radius. In 14 days only 5 houses sstc. 46 new ones on. 24 price drops. 3 reavailable.

Massive drop off in activity.....

This may show up in the Haliwide figures soon but if only two houses are selling each month and they're big ones, it'll look like massive HPI.

problem is only a few understand this

This will be spun

Sentiment is changing

The 10 years history of rising prices is to fresh in psyche of the sheeple

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