abharrisson Posted June 11, 2009 Share Posted June 11, 2009 You are Alistair Darling and I claim my five IMF SDRs. I don't see that there's any need for name calling.... I maintain that 80 bottles of champagne isn't life changing... unless of course you drink them all at once. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rachman Posted June 11, 2009 Share Posted June 11, 2009 I live in France and I agree with you - For the third time; the Eurozone has problems. The PIIGS represent a problem that must be addressed, but add all the PIIGS together - what percentage are they of the Eurozone? I can see no reason, beyond blind optimism and wishful thinking, why anyone would expect the UK to fare better than any of its main competitors. I wish it weren't so. at the same time, I don't think the UK will fare any worse than its main competitors either...... - I wonder what would happen if we have a major cash call from the EU to bail out E Europe - will we almost bankrupt ourselves to pay for it or will we just tell them to whistle (or more likely protest loudly to look good, but just pay it anyway without telling the British public). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
abharrisson Posted June 11, 2009 Share Posted June 11, 2009 at the same time, I don't think the UK will fare any worse than its main competitors either...... - I wonder what would happen if we have a major cash call from the EU to bail out E Europe - will we almost bankrupt ourselves to pay for it or will we just tell them to whistle (or more likely protest loudly to look good, but just pay it anyway without telling the British public). I would hope we'll tell them to whistle, but of course I wouldn't put it past the mandarins in brussels to be already wondering how they can triple their firepower by getting the UK onot the hook as well as france and germany for east european debts. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winkie Posted June 11, 2009 Share Posted June 11, 2009 I live in France and I agree with you - For the third time; the Eurozone has problems. The PIIGS represent a problem that must be addressed, but add all the PIIGS together - what percentage are they of the Eurozone? I can see no reason, beyond blind optimism and wishful thinking, why anyone would expect the UK to fare better than any of its main competitors. I wish it weren't so. Safety and strength in size and numbers. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1888 Posted June 11, 2009 Share Posted June 11, 2009 Au and Ag and we're not talking Argentina and Austria real money for surreal situations Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
babesagainstmachines Posted June 11, 2009 Share Posted June 11, 2009 We will be buming around in the 1.23 - 1.28 range before Christmas. I doubt it will go any higher. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swissy_fit Posted June 11, 2009 Author Share Posted June 11, 2009 We will be buming around in the 1.23 - 1.28 range before Christmas. I doubt it will go any higher. I'll assume that's a typo? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HPCatlast. Posted June 11, 2009 Share Posted June 11, 2009 It seems to me that the "Recovereh" in the UK is at least going to present an opportunity to exit the pound, especially if we get some nasty news that affects the Eurozone more than the UK, which seems fairly likely.I have substantial savings in sterling, and my life is likely to be in France. So obviously I want to exit sterling. I don't even want a house in the UK as a fallback any more, they're such poor value. Any of you Forex traders/watchers care to estimate a good exit point? Please don't say July 2007! My guess is 1.35 Euros. Snap. We leave this rented property end July, for retirement in France (dept 87). Got 1 & 1/2 acres to try the good life, just can't wait to get out there. RiG Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest redwine Posted June 11, 2009 Share Posted June 11, 2009 Snap. We leave this rented property end July, for retirement in France (dept 87). Got 1 & 1/2 acres to try the good life, just can't wait to get out there. RiG i would like to ask you what made you want to retire to the limousin (dept 87) it is a isolated farming dept a bit out of the way and forgotten the average summer temperatures are only 22c not much better than england land and houses are cheap there just like in "the allier" but they were abandoned a long time ago Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
soldintime Posted June 11, 2009 Share Posted June 11, 2009 I think it will stay at the psycholgical 0.80 for eurgbp. So 1.25 for a while. The 1.02 was driven by speculators to drive it to parity it soon gave way. I think there is a lot of bad news still in europe. Share markets around the world have gotten ahead of themselves and a correction is due. This correction will lead to a sell off of stocks, commodites and precious metals and will have a flight to the safe haven currency the USD. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
InternationalRockSuperstar Posted June 11, 2009 Share Posted June 11, 2009 What Point To Exit The Pound?... Please don't say July 2007! August 1914. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
grumpy-old-man-returns Posted June 11, 2009 Share Posted June 11, 2009 August 1914. yes, I have seen that chart. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
agmoldham Posted June 11, 2009 Share Posted June 11, 2009 (edited) It seems to me that the "Recovereh" in the UK is at least going to present an opportunity to exit the pound, especially if we get some nasty news that affects the Eurozone more than the UK, which seems fairly likely.I have substantial savings in sterling, and my life is likely to be in France. So obviously I want to exit sterling. I don't even want a house in the UK as a fallback any more, they're such poor value. Any of you Forex traders/watchers care to estimate a good exit point? Please don't say July 2007! My guess is 1.35 Euros. I'm not especially bullish about the pound, but I think the euro is in for a real pounding (excuse the pun) over the next few months. It will not be long before interest rates are substantially higher in the UK than the Eurozone. I'm expecting to see 1.40 + by the end of the year. Edited June 11, 2009 by agmoldham Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
grumpy-old-man-returns Posted June 11, 2009 Share Posted June 11, 2009 I'm not especially bullish about the pound, but I think the euro is in for a real pounding (excuse the pun) over the next few months. It will not be long before interest rates are substantially higher in the UK than the Eurozone. I'm expecting to see 1.40 + by the end of the year. no chance. The eurozone is much better placed than the UK to cope, plus that's what the those that control the system want. The UK will be in the Euro proper before xmas imo. I think the pound will drop below parity when it enters. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hatchet Man Posted June 11, 2009 Share Posted June 11, 2009 no chance.The eurozone is much better placed than the UK to cope, plus that's what the those that control the system want. The UK will be in the Euro proper before xmas imo. I think the pound will drop below parity when it enters. A losing bet if you were a betting man. The bets are on who will be withdrawing from the Euro within the next couple of years. My old Mentor with holes in his trousers, who I would bet on the feeling in his water, will be proved correct. He also believes that the Chinese are correct that the QE in the Western Economies will lead to future high inflation in the Global Economies. He expects that the Savers will then get their revenge as the Banks are forced to kiss their a***s. Magic. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
grumpy-old-man-returns Posted June 11, 2009 Share Posted June 11, 2009 (edited) A losing bet if you were a betting man.The bets are on who will be withdrawing from the Euro within the next couple of years. My old Mentor with holes in his trousers, who I would bet on the feeling in his water, will be proved correct. He also believes that the Chinese are correct that the QE in the Western Economies will lead to future high inflation in the Global Economies. He expects that the Savers will then get their revenge as the Banks are forced to kiss their a***s. Magic. I agree that the Euro is doomed medium term Hatchet Man, but I think short term it's all part of the plan for the UK to go full-euro. I thought that was a given tbh. Mandy's running the show imo (or will be very shortly) & he is pro euro. In fact it was HIS baby wasn't it ? as for IR's, i agree that they will be forced up higher next year I would imagine. They are shaft1ng the savers at the moment. It's a disgrace. I see an old friend of mine returned the other day. Edited June 11, 2009 by grumpy-old-man-returns Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
time_and_tide Posted June 11, 2009 Share Posted June 11, 2009 (edited) The idea is to get those who saved while others borrowed and spent, to do their patriotic duty and spend NOW. First, interest rates were collapsed to make saving unattractive, now a 'recovery' has been engineered to lure people back into the property market. Anyone falling for this desperate gambit deserves all they get. It's one of the most transparent scams of all time and the country will pay for it with a future even harder and bleaker than the hard, bleak future that was already ahead of us. I give this 'recovery' about three months. edit: typo Edited June 11, 2009 by time_and_tide Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hatchet Man Posted June 11, 2009 Share Posted June 11, 2009 Mandy's running the show imo (or will be very shortly) & he is pro euro. In fact it was HIS baby wasn't it ? Mandy is dead meat, he may have returned after 2 disgraces, but Brown must gather around him so called supporters regardless how Abhorrent they are, but a 3rd is in the pipeline and such a p***k as he is will finally send him off to the wilderness for good. Watch and learn from the man with holes in his trousers. I hope he is reading and replies on this thread. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest spp Posted June 11, 2009 Share Posted June 11, 2009 How about...What point to exit the U.K?? Tomorrow, I will be booking my flight for a 6 month recon mission in OZ via Dubai and maybe Singapore! Thank you Gordy...the kick up the rear I needed...to get out. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
non frog Posted June 11, 2009 Share Posted June 11, 2009 .....it's all part of the plan for the UK to go full-euro. ..... I think you will find that idea was abandoned after the cretinous idiot chancellor lost 10% of GDP in a day propping up the GBP as part of the ERM As I recall Soros did well and the Tories/taxpayers did badly. No doubt such a plan (to enter the Eurozone) exists in the mind of the Daily Mail journalists but the current government has no such plans. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
InternationalRockSuperstar Posted June 11, 2009 Share Posted June 11, 2009 I'm not especially bullish about the pound, but I think the euro is in for a real pounding (excuse the pun) over the next few months. It will not be long before interest rates are substantially higher in the UK than the Eurozone. I'm expecting to see 1.40 + by the end of the year. more important than interest rates is the fact that the Fed has unlimited swap lines with the BoE and ECB. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brianc_li Posted June 12, 2009 Share Posted June 12, 2009 Have to agree Non-Frog. No way UK is going into the Euro for at least ten years. It would be political suicide for any government to attempt it. I´ve always felt that the ´natural´ level for the pound to the euro was around 1.30. At 1.50 the UK (and its exports) was ridiculously expensive to those of us in the euro zone. At 1.10 it was very cheap. The spectre at the feast is of course inflation. The ECB hasn´t (yet) resorted to printing money. It could go either way but my guess is that it won´t. If the UK economy continues to improve and the genie that is inflation is let out of the bottle we might see parity yet. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
grumpy-old-man-returns Posted June 12, 2009 Share Posted June 12, 2009 Have to agree Non-Frog. No way UK is going into the Euro for at least ten years. It would be political suicide for any government to attempt it.I´ve always felt that the ´natural´ level for the pound to the euro was around 1.30. At 1.50 the UK (and its exports) was ridiculously expensive to those of us in the euro zone. At 1.10 it was very cheap. The spectre at the feast is of course inflation. The ECB hasn´t (yet) resorted to printing money. It could go either way but my guess is that it won´t. If the UK economy continues to improve and the genie that is inflation is let out of the bottle we might see parity yet. so you say, YES & NO then...... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deckard Posted June 12, 2009 Share Posted June 12, 2009 The UK will be in the Euro proper before xmas imo.I think the pound will drop below parity when it enters. aaah GOM You just made my day I SHALL HOLD YOU TO THIS PREDICTION, DUDE!!!! Great Great Great FUN Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
grumpy-old-man-returns Posted June 12, 2009 Share Posted June 12, 2009 aaah GOM You just made my day I SHALL HOLD YOU TO THIS PREDICTION, DUDE!!!! Great Great Great FUN you're welcome. hey I'm an honest guy you know. If we get deflation, I will be the first one to come on here & admit I got it wrong. I got a black day wrong once & admitted it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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