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House Price Crash Forum


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About abharrisson

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  1. Oh dear oh dear it looks like brucy woocy has been caught out...
  2. Depends a little on where you live, what the currant rent is compared to other properties for rent, availabiltyof other properties , your own financial position and of course whether you can easily stomach a move. If there's loads of property around that would suit and you think you can get it cheaper and you don't mind moving, and the costs of moving don't outhweigh the rental elevation and you are in a sound job and would have no problem passing a credit score and could find a new deposit before you get your old one back...... then I'd say go back to them and use this as a negotiaing opportunity, let them know you have done your work, show them some examples of the property you have found that's 5% + less than you currently pay and offer them instead of a rent increase of 4% a rent reduction of 5%.......... if they come back with leaving the rent the same then you have probably done ok when you take into account the hassle and cost of moving, new contratcs, deposit, credit search , changing address and phone numbers and utiity providers etc etc. Moving home ( money to one side) is a little like moving banks.. there's really quite a large amount of hassle and cost associated with it and it's something I'd certainly not want to do more frequently than absolutely necessary.... balance that against a few quid either way on the rental and you'll have your answer. When I have rented before I have typically left homes when a rent review of ludicrous proportions have been sprung on me, and as an amateur landlord I tend to take the view that some rental is better than none and so have not raised rents for six years... but then again I have not had voids, and have managed to avoid paying the agent thier cut so it's all worked out pretty well.
  3. While this Stewart law chappie is clearly as on the lunatic fringe as some of the 50% HPC sheeple... he does raise an interessting point which is that if one assumes growth will remain sluggish for the next five years ( not unlikely), that mortgages will get if anything harder to get ( quite possible with the FSA'a new laws), that banks won't have access to wholesale markets like they once did for mortgage financing ( highly likely), that rates will remain low , that consumer confidence will remain muted and that prices at best will nominally hold value but lose value on a real basis then I think we will certainly see a situation where rental demand pretty much can only go upwards.... whether or not this will be enough to offset the housing benefot changes is a another matter but I do think we could end the next five years with a larger number of people renting property proportionalately and a lower number owning property... not through choice I suspect but as a fallout of the overall situation.
  4. Transactions ARE very very low compared to a more normal , historic level of activity... Nationwide themselves even go as far as warning off reading anything into their regional figures becasue of this... anyone who doesn't think all these indices are not hampered by volatility caused by low transactions must be living on planet Zog..... why do you find it so difficult to accept that low transactions make the results unreliable..... its a fact, its not something you can get away from. Perhaps it's becasue those who hear the unrelaibiliuty message choose not to hear it becasue they fear it might be an attack on their treasured crash speed... I'd be making ( and have made) the same point when prices were reportedly rising with low volumes. Whichever way you cut it though you will find it very very difficult to promote a "transactions aren't low" point of view as it's just plain wrong I'm afraid.
  5. Yes it is a serious question see my later response... I suppose for you I could re-phrase it and say... is there really anyone out there who thought during the boom years that they had to bid over the odds to get a property to tick their boxes ?... only those suffering from a disability of not being able to negotiate would say yes..... home many times in good times and bad have I heard people say " I wonder if I can get them to take a few thousand off"... some people apparently never ever seem to think in terms of percentages.... £30,000 off a £300,000 house is the same as £10000 off a £100000 house although I am sure you'll find hge swathes of people feeling comfortabe asking for the latter and not the former.
  6. Clearly you have settled on your point of view and are selectively qutoing to try and prove the point. There's nothing I can do about that I'm afraid, other than to suggest you read the whole report and then revisit how they and the others come to their conclusions and then have a further thought about it.... as I said it's a pretty balanced report and that you insist otherwise doesn't I'm afraid change that.
  7. You must be older than me... I bought my first home in 1992 and have bought four times since and never paid anything more than 90% of the asking price. Although I would agree that there are a number of people out there with the British disease which is a seeming disability over negotiation.
  8. I think we can agree UK prices are expensive but at the same time we can also agree that you have made a hopeless attempt at trying to compare "value" between French and British markets by choosing two such very different areas and home styles. Comparissons of value between markets is very difficult to achieve, and probably is best restricted to some kind of like for like eg s*****iest area of paris vs s*****iest area of london vs average income for residents of those particular areas expressed as a multiple.... as it's so veyr difficult to do , it's rarely done..... however that's no excuse for trying to read anything useful into your own effort.
  9. Did anyone really ever pay full asking price ? Consumer confidence is going to be one of the key factors which will define how this pans out ( steep and deep, long and slow etc)...... we'll see I think low consumer confidence continuing for a little while ( until the new year perhaps) when there may be a change driven by people's irrational fears about the pace of change the cuts will create not materialising, the media agenda will also have swithced by then I should think as they hate reporting one way traffic for more than a little while ( regardless of the stats).... recently it's been cuts doom and gloom but that will change as broedom sets in and they run out of ways to say double dip.
  10. And the Daily Telegraph is your new oracle..... pleeeeease................ Acadametrics results have their part to play alongside the other indeces. If you haven't worked out by now how they work after 24,000 posts then i'm afraid it's too late for you.... none of the indeces are very reliable with such low volume sales , acadametrics actually have the benefit of potentially being less volatile due to their methodology..... either way NONE of the indices will give you any clue whatsoever of what house prices are doing in your area or whether asking price of any house you are interessted in is anywhere near fair value. Whatever your misplaced and illjudged feeling s are about the report i t's actually pretty well balanced pointing as it does to a falling market, with prices ending the year in many regions at a lower point than they started the year.
  11. I know what you mean but I don't think there's any evidence at all to suggest that buyers act anything other than individually... you paint a picture of some form of buyer colusion to sit on their hands and wait for a particular vendor to cave in.... in fact I doubt if any individual prospective purchaser even knows the identity of any other individual prosepective purchaser...... of course there will be a common reaction to news reporting and that's likely to produce actiosn which are similar where price is the most important purchase factor ( which it often isn't).
  12. I think you'll possibly have to wait another five years before things start to get reasonable.... don't know if you have been waiting on the sidelines for the last 6 years waiting to buy but if you have I suspect there's unfortunately a long long way to go, and by my reckoning prices won't revert to 2004 ( nominally) or anything like but there we go..... if it's any consolation of course you are correct in your wider assertion that the house price boom floated on a huge increase in finance availibility even if the whole liar loans has got a little contrived along the way.
  13. While I absolutely support the approach of erradicating the structural deficit sooner rather than later and applaud Cameron for his bravery.... let's also remember that it's by no means certain that it will succeed or when it will succeed. One thing is for certain is that labour for years and years failed to make any choices ( when asked an expenditure question they always said yes), and they failed to make the tough decisions. Instead what they did was spend spend spend in an effort to stay in power. From Blair to Brown and all points in between the Labour party was driven solely by a desire to stay in power and felt the best way of doing that was to bribe the electorate...... it worked, people allowed it to work becasue they were too dumb to see the truth....... I don't know if Cameron will be a success or not but one things for sure he hasn't shirked the tough decisions to satisfy a thrist for personal power like Blair and Brown and their cronies did year after year after year.
  14. Surely no one can be surprised that interest rates aren't going to rise...... in this economic environment it was never ever going to happen with any degree of scale.... I shouldn't think we'll see BOE rates over say 3% for years to come maybe beyond 2015....... that's one of the reasons I have long felt any housing price correction is going to be a very drawn out affair with most of the work being done by inflation and very small nominal falls....... I just can't see a wham bang crash happening with low rates.... although it would be better for all of us if we had a massive and quick correction and then could get onto an even footing again more quickly... as it is we are going to see years and years of ups and downs until we get to the end I reckon.
  15. As is anyone who was mad enough to vote the Labour mismangement team in. It was clear as day in 1997 that they'd muck everything up, and even clearer the second time around, those who voted for them the third time must really have had their eyes closed.
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