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House Price Crash Forum


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Everything posted by Rachman

  1. a 300K mortgage (repayment over 25 years) is about £1,580 a month @ 4%. Cut that rate to 2%, and it's about £1,270. Of which about £570 is the capital element. If you're so close to the wind that £70 quid a week was impossible to get to, to get to the point of buying, then I suspect that you are the sort of risk averse person would never buy. Three years later, assuming no overpayments, you'd have paid off about £25K and would also be sat on about £100K-150K of HPI (I would guess). So your £335K place is now 'worth' about £450K and you owe about £275K on it. You could easily get a 1.5% mortgage deal and be paying under £1,200 a month in repayment mortgage (2/3 of which is capital repayment). And do you know what, for all those on HPC who didn't, LOTS of people did. They now have flexibility and comfort, and lower costs, and equity, and an ability to buy elsewhere if they move out. Because their appetite for risk was better (or they were uninformed and reckless). Were they right - at the moment it looks like it - if property tanks and they lose all their equity or near enough and it falls to be worth £300K again, then probably not, BUT a number of HPCers will have spent that on rent anyway...... What is a £450K flat/house in Tooting to rent out ? I suspect it's more than the entire mortgage payment. I can't see it being less than £1,500 a month for anything nice.
  2. Those of you saving up. Did you have 10% deposit to buy a three bed house in say Worcester Park, Chessington or Ewell (I know SW London better than other parts these days). Not the best but better than somewhere like Croydon or Sutton. Could you have then got a decent flat in Morden or possibly Tooting. What about Earlsfield or South Wimbledon at the time ? All of these would have needed something like £30-35K deposit 2-3 years ago. For something 2 bed plus (or 3 bed semi). You could now be moving up or out with a wedge. If you did (have the cash) and when you read the "how much deposit do you have, it's seems you are all claiming to be rivalling Apple and Warren Buffett for cash stashed), why didn't you ? Was it being worried about peak prices and losing your savings ? I am, believe it or not, relatively bear on where it's going to end up, but some of you (note some) are so determined to spout something that you hope it to eventually happen, because you said it would..... I know what that reads like. But there ARE a number of people who just want to blame everyone else, who just sit there and moan instead of doing something about it. OK, those areas are not ideal for many, but the rest of us didn't buy straight into mansion flats in SW6 and NW3..... some of us had to flatshare there first (sorry, joke again....)
  3. that will be two people earning in the photo above. Plus no doubt a bit of BOMAD, or at least comfort that they wouldn't end up destitute. It's London - that house is silly priced to me (the £775K one - especially if you don't like trains). It probably isn't reasonable to expect to be able to buy on one income. Almost all of the juniors are dating similar earning professionals, from what I know.... so that is £50K in a year. It's also not unreasonable to not expect to buy a 4 bed house as your first house. Especially in London. How old are the £80K a year lot - 25-26 in the main. And expecting to be on £110K-150K at 30. The thing is, they will do 10 years and unless they make it as partner (and 95% won't) they simply aren't going to have jack behind them. And honestly, the girls are worst for it - I can recall a guy a year behind me - he was on give or take same wedge as I was, he got a sub off me most months. Because he spent it.
  4. Absolutely. But if you're making £4K a month net - good money, why pay £1800 to rent on your own, when you could flatshare for £750 (and halve bills), and NOT go out in the City Thursday and Friday (and no doubt Saturday as well). And save £2K a month towards that deposit if you put your mind to it. What about actually getting the Tube, not yet another Uber after that night out. I would say half of the newly qualifieds have a Breitling/IWC/Rolex on these days You will never make headway if you live like that. And that's what they do..... I flatshared with a bunch of Aussies/Kiwis/Saffers, I don't think I took a taxi/cab that wasn/t on expenses for three years in London.
  5. lottery win ? It wouldn't make much of a difference unless it was a rollover. And significant lifestyle change would need a euro millions jackpot..... (Joke...)So how old are you and why didn't you/can't you buy ? Do you have the academic record to get a good degree from a good university and the application to use it to do well at work. Or the skill and mindset to apply a trade and do well ? Or is it someone else's fault ? We're not cashing in because we don't want to and don't need to. Not because we think the HPI will continue. Our life is not totally predicated by house prices. And it's the same for lots of people in London. and elsewhere. To, could we buy again ? If I apply the wages I had when I bought..... 29 - I was earning 170k - paid 390k for a Nice flat in a very nice part of town. Didn't actually make that much when I sold it. I am a lawyer not a property speculator and so am risk averse. Mortgage interest rate was 4.49 per cent or so. Today. That flat is about 800k, wages in that role are probably 210k (hasn't been much inflation in wages at best paying law firms other than for equity partners). That is good money in your 20s. However you are worked like a dog for it. Current house. Could we afford to buy it today. We earn better than we did back then. And mortgage pay rates are sub 1.5%. So yes. But I would be hoping to smash the outstanding capital on the mortgage every year to counter against future interest rate rises..... I wouldn't particularly want a million or more of mortgage if I was paying that 5 per cent on it.... I admit our wages help a lot....
  6. indeed I may not. I may be forced back into working long hours in a barely minimum wage like I used to when I was at school and a student. And if that happens, I will deal with it. Having said that, if my house tanks 50-75pet cent in price, so will anything I choose to buy. Because short of a dirty bomb in SW3 then London house prices are not going to collapse without the rest of the country going the same way So all I am losing out on is a chunk of the cash buffer. I don't believe that it is possible any more to just sit there and do a standard 35 hour week in a normal job and get a 3 bed semi or better in a nice part of town and a wife who doesn't have to work and a big fat pension entitlement and, and, and..... My parents did and they don't see how lucky their generation was. I DO feel sorry for the kids who have to borrow for university and their wages aren't rising. And it is harder. At the same time, I listen to so many younger people who bemoan their lot and having month left at the end of the money...... Almost without exception they have several of the following ..... expensive intricate tattoos, a better phone than me, are off for another midweek night out, have a new PCP'd car on order, dress in some very expensive clothes and are always going to latest festival/another city break. You could say they do this because there is no hope of a home so why not. - their parents/grandparents MUST die soon .... But as a group they do seem to have less financial discipline and aren't prepared to compromise their standard of living to get something. or I am just getting really old. Now, must get the 0550 train into the office. It's Friday and I have some shystering to do if I want to leave early (3pm if I can do it) and spend quality time with family .....
  7. my wife is late 70s by brother in law is 80s. My neighbour is 80s.... (Born, not in their 80s). I know I chose to do 60-80 hour weeks to get a good name and experience in my profession. I have many peers who chose not to work as hard. They are mainly in 50-60k jobs and are mostly happy enough. But they don't have the flexibility we do.I paid a 28 year old just under 150k a year to do his job in 2014. He is almost a child of the 90s. He is bloody good at his job. And is worth it to our business. And I took a pound of flesh out of him to do so. I have offered jobs to 5 people out of probably 200 candidates I have interviewed in the last 5 years or so. Too many people expect the world on a plate. And too many older people dont accept life IS getting harder to do well, but at the same time, you can get on and do well if you choose to work hard and have some luck.... But please, chips on shoulders about when you were born doesn't really stack up..... It is true that if you come to work expecting to do 9-5 and it just happening, then those days are gone ( I am actually reasonably jealous of my parents ability to get 'rich' and be comfortable by doing working class jobs smartly). So you deal with the circumstances you have and you try to do your best. It ain't easy being green.
  8. BOMAD had nothing to do with it for us. I arrived having to borrow my months flatshare rent deposit off a mate. I threw myself into work and for some reason, people threw money at me to work for them. Don't get me wrong, we have been luckyish, but we worked hard to be lucky. Our friends are similar.... Arrived at 22-25. Worked hard in the professions in 20s and 30s and now have juniors working hard for us as we shift to senior advisory and client relationship roles.....
  9. I have worked abroad too. Especially the U.S., which I loved. He has friends here too. I know the negative connotations being Northern brought at university and in early career. Rightly or wrongly. He will have so much more opportunity and access to culture and much wider horizons and experience of people by being here than a small village in the middle of relative nowhere..... Am I right, no idea, I may well be totally wrong, but I can't uproot my family unless I am certain it's time to go and we all want to.... At the moment we don't. Part of me gets close to Michael Douglas in Falling Down. I don't do much 'new' these days at work, but it pays well so you keep doing it. And it is a tad dull. But it's also comfortable to stay with what you know.....
  10. I'll bite. We live in a house about that value. Wife a bit younger than 40. Me just a tad older. Mortgage (net of liquidatable investments) -£200k. Income is a bit off though. If we moved out to buy a 'decent' gaff in Hampshire or Dorset or Wiltshire we'd probably spend about 1.25-1.4m and my wife would stop work entirely. I would probably downshift and drop income 50-60 per cent. But no debt and a few quid on top in the bank. So why don't we move out and semiretire ? We like it here. Life is here. Friends are here. My sons future is here. Life is not all about maximising return in a property and cashing out. We would have to move somewhere new, start again. Nope. Our backgrounds are both up North. There is NO way we're going bacK there. I keep looking at nice houses with land but..... Probably when son Goes to university,.... We will flog the lot and retire in style.....till then we will keep taking shekels....
  11. suffered from depression. And what could best be termed a strained relationship with his wife (she claimed to be sleeping in the car, not at home , when he killed himself. Join the dots).
  12. to be fair that needs gutting. It was just way overpriced. As a London townhouse it could be just about perfect... Location top notch, and very pretty house. It has potential to sort out the layout (move kitchen to basement and sort out the second floor) but you're spending 300k plus to do it to am appropriate spec. So factor in transaction cost and risk and it's probably a 2.5m property.. At that, given the location, I don't think it's horrific. What would others say it SHOULD be worth ?
  13. I grew up in Bolton . My wife grew up in proper posh Cheshire (Bowdon). Our family homes were large and sadly for people looking to move up now, expensive. My parents have now left but managed 600k for their c1800 built stone cottage on the prettiest outskirts of .bolton. I will happily admit that 35% of bolton is a total hole, 50% is average town and the remainder is fantastic. The town itself is rough, ravaged by council mismanagement, drugs, benefits culture and ethnic (and white trash) ghettoes, but at the same time it has 100k plus top friendly decent hardworking people in it (of all colours" creeds and denominations). Stockport, Widnes, Winsford and plenty of other total holes are in Cheshire....
  14. I suspect she never bought it. She only rented it but BS'd abut buying it. Like many of these junior pop starletsmandntheir wealth... It is rented for the duration. Owner/developer was quite eased some mug was paying top rent in the market and hopefully some fame/notoriety would rub off and he'd see a few more quid/less of a loss
  15. Postal voting in Bolton means Labour anyway.
  16. Preston is awful. Chorley is scummy white trash awful in the town itself. It's a dying town. There are some lovely bits outside both. But in them, no ta.
  17. Will you tell him why he needs to avoid those towns ? Answer, they are great if you find heroin moreish or you like driving round really fast in an Audi registered to your great uncle and marrying your recently imported cousin. They are they to make people in Burnley feel superior. I'd add Ribchester as a decent little place, plus maybe Shevington near but DEFINITELY not in Wigan or possibly Edgworth, between Bolton and Blackburn.....
  18. I would be surprised if he did. We are refurbing/extending to just under 500sqm (a McMansion, not a Mansion). The cost of that, to high spec (tech and basic build as well as finishes), is north of Euro500.000. Materials costs are roughly the same across Europe - and German labour isn't cheaper. And I am good at making the money work hard (to get more out of it).
  19. In the main, the only people who will spend the money building facilities are these PE people. And you'd be amazed at just how ridiculous the councils are at the slashing of pay rates (and risking care standards) they demand from operators. The staff are low paid, but granny farming is actually low margin. Having been through finances of some of the bigger players, the more specialised care is expensive - up to £6K a week - but that's because it's specialised. If your nurses are on £40K plus NHS transferred pensions costs (and the private lot can't get away with just a mere 14% contribution), and you need to provide 24 hour on one care, then that IS damned expensive to provide.
  20. Won't sell enough tickets. They will cream off a third of the sales in expenses and do a cash prize. Like always. And thereit is....clause 6.7. A p1sstaker's charter. They know they won't sell all the tickets so they trying to make even more than that. As a solicitor, I would be embarrassed to be associated with this.
  21. I thought the carer wasn't a live in one. She same during the morning, then the poor woman goes to day care, so no-one there. She then comes back and mother deals, unless she is at her chippy job (which will be under 16 hours a week). When the carer will be there. There's no need for a bedroom for the carer.
  22. so she works under the benefits threshold, her daughter (poor woman) clearly doesn't work. They don't pay council tax, they get JSA, they will get invalidity benefits, carer's allowance etc..... and they are being asked to pay £8 a day (as well as for the carer) for rent. Is it really that much to expect them to - or would it be more realistic to expect her father to continue to pay a few quid ? Or perhaps her brother put a couple of quid in the pot (given it's a 5 bed house, I suspect that he's living in one of the other bedrooms). Don't get me wrong, horrific and tragic circumstances all wrong, but I get the sense that we're being told half a story here....
  23. in other totally unrelated news, 30% of under 25s expect a job in the public sector. And will be furious with retiring as late as that. But it's Friday, they have flexitime and it's warm and sunny. So they aren't complaining today.
  24. you know how it's OK for black people to use the N word when talking about each other. Do the math about my background. None of my relatives give a stuff about Paddy, calling them Fenians or Taigs would upset them, but Paddy really doesn't. May I suggest you're just looking to be offended and that you know you can't attack the message, so attack the way it's delivered. Paddy is the same level as "Sweaty", "Taffy" (best said to people from N Wales because of the obvious) "Scouser/BIn Dipper", "Manc", "Weegie". BTW, when my granny used to shout out in the street for her eldest son, Packie (Patrick), when 50% of the street were Pakistani ..... you try explaining to a little old woman that she can't call her son 'his name' any more.....
  25. What stops them ? They want to spend our money on fags, booze and tattoos. Not housing for their kids.
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