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What Point To Exit The Pound?

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It seems to me that the "Recovereh" in the UK is at least going to present an opportunity to exit the pound, especially if we get some nasty news that affects the Eurozone more than the UK, which seems fairly likely.

I have substantial savings in sterling, and my life is likely to be in France. So obviously I want to exit sterling. I don't even want a house in the UK as a fallback any more, they're such poor value.

Any of you Forex traders/watchers care to estimate a good exit point? Please don't say July 2007!

My guess is 1.35 Euros.

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It seems to me that the "Recovereh" in the UK is at least going to present an opportunity to exit the pound, especially if we get some nasty news that affects the Eurozone more than the UK, which seems fairly likely.

I have substantial savings in sterling, and my life is likely to be in France. So obviously I want to exit sterling. I don't even want a house in the UK as a fallback any more, they're such poor value.

Any of you Forex traders/watchers care to estimate a good exit point? Please don't say July 2007!

My guess is 1.35 Euros.

;)

I can't see the pound recovering against the euro much more (I am surprised it back this much tbh). I think the UK is due some more horrific news on the economic/financial front.

short short's & unknown unknown's. :ph34r:

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Hard to say what is a "sensible" strategy. We still have the sterling from a house sale and while I wish I had changed it then (1.32) and back again later (1.05) I didn't :(

Property here is falling just like the UK and there has been a "spring boom" round where we are, notably in coastal stuff. The thing I see is a whole raft of new-build under way and not many folk to buy/rent it.

Like you I'm tempted to "exit" sterling, but the Euro has some real dire problems ahead. Latvia will collapse soon, before xmas at the latest, with predictable results on the Eurozone economies IMHO.

I would avoid thinking simply about a conversion rate that marks a good time to exit and watch the broader picture of the EU economy in all honesty.

Chris

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If your in no hurry (1-2 years) wait as long as possible, UK should recover before EU because EU is too big to react quickly and the PIIGS will drag the value of euro right down.

GB is making a lot of mistakes but EU and USA are making a lot of the same ones, just timed differently!

I'm gonna sit tight and wait till 1.45-1.50.

btw I have £70k riding on this!

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It seems to me that the "Recovereh" in the UK is at least going to present an opportunity to exit the pound, especially if we get some nasty news that affects the Eurozone more than the UK, which seems fairly likely.

I have substantial savings in sterling, and my life is likely to be in France. So obviously I want to exit sterling. I don't even want a house in the UK as a fallback any more, they're such poor value.

Any of you Forex traders/watchers care to estimate a good exit point? Please don't say July 2007!

My guess is 1.35 Euros.

IMO 1.35 or thereabouts is the "fair" rate from a macro standpoint, however I suspect 1.25 will be a tough nut to crack in the short term (4-8 weeks), mainly for TA reasons.

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If your in no hurry (1-2 years) wait as long as possible, UK should recover before EU because EU is too big to react quickly and the PIIGS will drag the value of euro right down.

GB is making a lot of mistakes but EU and USA are making a lot of the same ones, just timed differently!

I'm gonna sit tight and wait till 1.45-1.50.

btw I have £70k riding on this!

I wish it was only 70k. :angry:

Far too much of my work risks being p*ssed away by Brown.

My own fault, didn't act in 2007 when the Nrock rumours started, ones own errors are always the hardest to swallow.

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I wish it was only 70k. :angry:

Far too much of my work risks being p*ssed away by Brown.

My own fault, didn't act in 2007 when the Nrock rumours started, ones own errors are always the hardest to swallow.

Having 70k riding on it seems scary ... but kind of a nice problem to have I guess :-).

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It seems to me that the "Recovereh" in the UK is at least going to present an opportunity to exit the pound, especially if we get some nasty news that affects the Eurozone more than the UK, which seems fairly likely.

I have substantial savings in sterling, and my life is likely to be in France. So obviously I want to exit sterling. I don't even want a house in the UK as a fallback any more, they're such poor value.

Any of you Forex traders/watchers care to estimate a good exit point? Please don't say July 2007!

My guess is 1.35 Euros.

Before all these troubles started, the exchange rate was about 1.27 Euros. I think anything can happen. If there are no shocks (a very big if!), sterling should continue to appreciate to about 1.25. But what if the UK's rating is downgraded or a gilt sale goes pearshaped? Having said that, this may only provide a temporary retracement and I think there is more potential for some horrible problems starting to break out all over the Eurozone and beyond (Austrian banks, Spain, Ireland, Baltics, you name it - it is only a matter of time). So I would play it by ear, but hold onto sterling for the moment.

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If your in no hurry (1-2 years) wait as long as possible, UK should recover before EU because EU is too big to react quickly and the PIIGS will drag the value of euro right down.

GB is making a lot of mistakes but EU and USA are making a lot of the same ones, just timed differently!

I'm gonna sit tight and wait till 1.45-1.50.

btw I have £70k riding on this!

I've got a simpler problem , I need to buy about 80 bottles of champagne, obviously they will be a lot cheaper if I get it right, but its hardly life changing.

I suppose in your situation, without being really into trading currency or having the "insight" many on here claim to I might actually take the following view.... whats PAR in terms of purchasing power sterling vs Euro.... when it was 1.25 I thought.. OK but not as cheap perhaps as it has been... when it was 1.35 odd that was much better.

Also, little talked about but there are was a fixed level that the frank converted to the euro... this was 6.55957... now before the euro I remember thinking when we were 10 francs to the pound that france felt really very cheap.... that would equate in todays money to about 1.52 euros to the pound I think.

So my view would be below 1.25 I am doing badly.

around 1.35 is probably fair and waiting for anything more will be risking something for a potential bonanza.

if it went past 1.45 I'd be very very keen to trade.

One approach might be to do it in stages... eg if it goes past 1.25 do 15% of your stash.

if it goes past 1.30 do another 15%, 1.35 another 15%, 1.40 another 15%, 1.45 anything you have left in stages or whatever (40%). I know very clever people would have the charts out etc... but for me it would be about buying into the euro at a level I had previously felt France was cheap...... many might argue 1.25 was much too expensive, but personally I would take the view that 1.50 odd was a massively crazy price and france was far too cheap then..... 1.25 /1.30 might be fair, you never know.

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I get that the Euro is potentially more fooked than the pound.

But my money is in CHF and CNY and it is talking an almighty kicking. I'm now down £15K since the start of last month and could do with GB doing something stupid like dropping interest rates to 0% right away in order to help bail out hard working gamblers like myself!

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I've got a simpler problem , I need to buy about 80 bottles of champagne, obviously they will be a lot cheaper if I get it right, but its hardly life changing.

You are Alistair Darling and I claim my five IMF SDRs.

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I've got a simpler problem , I need to buy about 80 bottles of champagne, obviously they will be a lot cheaper if I get it right, but its hardly life changing.

I suppose in your situation, without being really into trading currency or having the "insight" many on here claim to I might actually take the following view.... whats PAR in terms of purchasing power sterling vs Euro.... when it was 1.25 I thought.. OK but not as cheap perhaps as it has been... when it was 1.35 odd that was much better.

Also, little talked about but there are was a fixed level that the frank converted to the euro... this was 6.55957... now before the euro I remember thinking when we were 10 francs to the pound that france felt really very cheap.... that would equate in todays money to about 1.52 euros to the pound I think.

So my view would be below 1.25 I am doing badly.

around 1.35 is probably fair and waiting for anything more will be risking something for a potential bonanza.

if it went past 1.45 I'd be very very keen to trade.

One approach might be to do it in stages... eg if it goes past 1.25 do 15% of your stash.

if it goes past 1.30 do another 15%, 1.35 another 15%, 1.40 another 15%, 1.45 anything you have left in stages or whatever (40%). I know very clever people would have the charts out etc... but for me it would be about buying into the euro at a level I had previously felt France was cheap...... many might argue 1.25 was much too expensive, but personally I would take the view that 1.50 odd was a massively crazy price and france was far too cheap then..... 1.25 /1.30 might be fair, you never know.

Thanks, I think this is correct, and is why I'm hoping for 1.35 Euros.

Many people seem to think that 1.50 Euros to the pound is normal, but that was the period when it was worth stacking up on food/drink if you happened to be taking a trip to France.

At the moment I buy everything I can in the UK, it's much cheaper than France, and about 3 times cheaper than Geneva. This is a sign to me that the pound is low. It won't last for ever, either there will be inflation in the UK or the exchange rate will "correct".

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My guess is 1.35 Euros.

Sounds like a pipe dream and just what makes you think it will go back to that figure when a few months back it hit 1.02 or do you think the UK is better placed with all it's debt that europe because i don't

Edited by Justice

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'Playing' currency is a fools game. There are plenty of financial advisors you can pay for advice and none will make you money. I live in the USA and made two mistakes (Merrill and Europacific). Both lost me significant sums and if I had continued to take their advice I would have lost more. You are basically rolling the dice and using your rear view mirror to drive forward.

I recently decided to move all dollars back to sterling - not because i think I can profit but because I have grave doubts about the USAs financial stability over the next decade. If you live here you may have noted the number of people on CNN and even Fox who are refering to the USA as the worlds first 'undeveloped nation', and the next Argentina. It's clear to me and many others that the USA has been poisoned by an elite who have ruined the banking system, health care, insurance industry, and many other key aspects of american life. The scum even conspired to sell toxic assets to patsies in the City of London who then passed on to the EU and elsewhere. Despicable behavior and rewarded by outrageous salaries and bonuses.

I shall write more later on the subject of EU membership and the flag waivers belief in the special relationship.

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I get that the Euro is potentially more fooked than the pound.

But my money is in CHF and CNY and it is talking an almighty kicking. I'm now down £15K since the start of last month and could do with GB doing something stupid like dropping interest rates to 0% right away in order to help bail out hard working gamblers like myself!

The Swissie is now tied to the Euro, Zurich/Bern will never allow the exchange rate to get far below 1.5 CHF/Eur, as all the shops/businesses near the borders(and there are lots, check the map) would go bankrupt in weeks. If the Euro goes, the Swissie will shadow it down, at least partially. Only the other week they were buying Euros when the rate got to about 1.46

If they allow the exchange rate to get much lower, they'd have to shut the borders.

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The time to get out of the pound was when it was 1.48 to the Euro. The next few months is a brief window of opportunity for those laggards who didn't, also the last chance for those who still have a house to sell. After that...

Don't say you weren't warned.

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Sounds like a pipe dream and just what makes you think it will go back to that figure when a few months back it hit 1.02 or do you think the UK is better placed with all it's debt that europe because i don't

You might be right. I agree, the debt looks very bad.

If you are, then there will be terrible inflation in the UK to bring the prices in line. Because right now, on every visit I come with an empty suitcase, and I'm considering making a 12h each way road trip and filling the car at some point.

One way or the other, this imbalance will be corrected.

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The time to get out of the pound was when it was 1.48 to the Euro. The next few months is a brief window of opportunity for those laggards who didn't, also the last chance for those who still have a house to sell. After that...

Don't say you weren't warned.

I have to agree. For all their problems, the Eurozone has not trashed its currency. When this is all over, I believe the Euro will become a reserve currency purely by default. I shudder to think what will happen to the dollar and pound. I see the USA as the next Argentina and the UK as the new Iceland. I also think the Germans will kick the PIGS out of the Eurozone and settle for some joint Franco-Germanic currency, possibly with some others like the Benelux nations, in a last-ditch effort to stem a growing nationalistic neo-nazi mood in their own nation.

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For all their problems, the Eurozone has not trashed its currency.

Yep, and the PIIGS are imploding because of it.

Something's got to give - and the German taxpayer ain't going to bail out the PIIGS, that's for sure.

Watch the next German gubbmint go all nationalistic after the september elections.

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For all their problems, the Eurozone has not trashed its currency.

You've just hit the nail on the head.

Along with the rest of the world, the Eurozone has problems. But no major economy comes close to the UK in terms of dire economic prospects - I'm sure it's been said before, but QE is just like the alcoholic's 'one last drink'. Just now we're at the stage where that drink has hit the bloodstream and the world seems fine.

Anyone who thinks we are leading the world out of recession presumably also thinks that alcohol is the cure for alcoholism.

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Along with the rest of the world, the Eurozone has problems. But no major economy comes close to the UK in terms of dire economic prospects

How about Spain, with close to 20% unemployment and a property bubble as big as the UK?

How closely do you follow the PIIGS economies?

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How about Spain, with close to 20% unemployment and a property bubble as big as the UK?

How closely do you follow the PIIGS economies?

Spain is a small percentage of the Eurozone. The UK is 100% of the UK.

As I said, the Eurozone has problems; the UK is a disaster - Oh and we have Gordon Brown!

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You've just hit the nail on the head.

Along with the rest of the world, the Eurozone has problems. But no major economy comes close to the UK in terms of dire economic prospects - I'm sure it's been said before, but QE is just like the alcoholic's 'one last drink'. Just now we're at the stage where that drink has hit the bloodstream and the world seems fine.

Anyone who thinks we are leading the world out of recession presumably also thinks that alcohol is the cure for alcoholism.

How much money do you think the German, Austrian, Swedish and French banks are owed by E Europe and Russia ? They are in all sorts of serious trouble and the manufacturing is dire - no German shipyard has taken an order for a ship bigger than a dinghy since October last year - the car market is absolutely dead (once the subsidies disappear), HGVs and van makers are screwed... manufacturing is in all sorts of trouble in mainstream Europe - and that's before you deal with the Catholic jokers (Spain, Italy, Ireland etc.).

The Euro and Franco German resolve will be massively tested - if there is even a small chance that E Europe would take them down, they won't and can't do it..... they'll let them hang.

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Spain is a small percentage of the Eurozone. The UK is 100% of the UK.

As I said, the Eurozone has problems; the UK is a disaster - Oh and we have Gordon Brown!

Things are just as bad in the other PIIGS, and certainly not rosy in Germany and France.

You need to look at the whole picture - not just at the UK.

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Things are just as bad in the other PIIGS, and certainly not rosy in Germany and France.

You need to look at the whole picture - not just at the UK.

I live in France and I agree with you - For the third time; the Eurozone has problems.

The PIIGS represent a problem that must be addressed, but add all the PIIGS together - what percentage are they of the Eurozone? I can see no reason, beyond blind optimism and wishful thinking, why anyone would expect the UK to fare better than any of its main competitors.

I wish it weren't so.

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