Agentimmo Posted June 12, 2009 Share Posted June 12, 2009 Have to agree Non-Frog. No way UK is going into the Euro for at least ten years. It would be political suicide for any government to attempt it.I´ve always felt that the ´natural´ level for the pound to the euro was around 1.30. At 1.50 the UK (and its exports) was ridiculously expensive to those of us in the euro zone. At 1.10 it was very cheap. The spectre at the feast is of course inflation. The ECB hasn´t (yet) resorted to printing money. It could go either way but my guess is that it won´t. If the UK economy continues to improve and the genie that is inflation is let out of the bottle we might see parity yet. Pretty much my point of view as well, from here in France. I've got some sterling to move to my euro account but it will sit in the UK until things improve. Once it hits 1.25€ , I'll seriously start looking at short term forecasts and maybe change at that rate. I don't see the £ getting back to the 1.45€ level for donkeys years........... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
non frog Posted June 12, 2009 Share Posted June 12, 2009 €1.30 was always the "expert view" way back IIRC. The debate started when Germany went in at too high a level on the DMark and it cost them on their exports. In all honesty the UK economy has been built on sand for years and this fact is perhaps more apparent than it was then. The pound could reach parity with the Euro but the UK will not join the club, any more than if the pound reaches some arbitrary exchange rate with the Burkina Faso Franc it will join that. Your average Brit is more Eurosceptic even than the French (and that's saying something) It seems to me most people in the richer EU countries don't much like their membership whereas the enthusiasm in the eastern countries was enormous. We shall see if that enthusiasm lasts now that the rich countries have gone bust and the tax burden is spread through all the member states. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
grumpy-old-man-returns Posted June 12, 2009 Share Posted June 12, 2009 €1.30 was always the "expert view" way back IIRC. The debate started when Germany went in at too high a level on the DMark and it cost them on their exports.In all honesty the UK economy has been built on sand for years and this fact is perhaps more apparent than it was then. The pound could reach parity with the Euro but the UK will not join the club, any more than if the pound reaches some arbitrary exchange rate with the Burkina Faso Franc it will join that. Your average Brit is more Eurosceptic even than the French (and that's saying something) It seems to me most people in the richer EU countries don't much like their membership whereas the enthusiasm in the eastern countries was enormous. We shall see if that enthusiasm lasts now that the rich countries have gone bust and the tax burden is spread through all the member states. the UK wouldn't meet the criteria to join the Euro now, even at parity. United Kingdom of Latvia indeed.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bagsos Posted June 12, 2009 Share Posted June 12, 2009 no chance.The eurozone is much better placed than the UK to cope, plus that's what the those that control the system want. The UK will be in the Euro proper before xmas imo. I think the pound will drop below parity when it enters. GOMR what planet are you on? There is absolutely no chance of this; none whatsoever. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swissy_fit Posted June 12, 2009 Author Share Posted June 12, 2009 GOMR what planet are you on? There is absolutely no chance of this; none whatsoever. I must say I agree. I find myself in the position of agreeing with GOM about lots of things(inflation etc), but not everything. So either his position or mine is not coherent. IMO the UK will not join the Euro, the UK economy may go the way of Iceland but the reaction will be different, and the Europeans wouldn't accept us anyway, we're too big and too indebted. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swissy_fit Posted June 12, 2009 Author Share Posted June 12, 2009 Snap. We leave this rented property end July, for retirement in France (dept 87). Got 1 & 1/2 acres to try the good life, just can't wait to get out there. RiG Best of luck. The Limousin wouldn't be my choice. It's nice, but you might as well go and live in rural Wales - the only advantage will be better food and wine. The Gironde, the Landes, Charente-Maritime and Pyrenees-Atlantiques are a bit pricier, but at least you get the sun and the ocean beaches, and access to a decent town or two. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jocohen Posted June 12, 2009 Share Posted June 12, 2009 It seems to me that the "Recovereh" in the UK is at least going to present an opportunity to exit the pound, especially if we get some nasty news that affects the Eurozone more than the UK, which seems fairly likely.I have substantial savings in sterling, and my life is likely to be in France. So obviously I want to exit sterling. I don't even want a house in the UK as a fallback any more, they're such poor value. Any of you Forex traders/watchers care to estimate a good exit point? Please don't say July 2007! My guess is 1.35 Euros. For all the financial incompetence of Brown the bad news on the horizon for the eurozone is worse. The impact of eastern europe has barely made it to euro banks. It is no coincidence that european banks have not released their figures, the obvious reason is that they are in dar worse state then any US or british bank. All this nonsense about this being purely an anglo nmerican problem is starting to unravel. Yes the US/UK started and worsened things but the greed got to the europeans as well. The fact they're being dishonest means medium term they could find themselves in greter difficulty. I wouldn't commit completely to suros. Keep broad portfolios of currency if you can and get ready for major european finance problems. We in britain are going to be Ok not becasue of browns abitity but even more incompetence in europe Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deckard Posted June 12, 2009 Share Posted June 12, 2009 For all the financial incompetence of Brown the bad news on the horizon for the eurozone is worse. The impact of eastern europe has barely made it to euro banks. It is no coincidence that european banks have not released their figures, the obvious reason is that they are in dar worse state then any US or british bank. All this nonsense about this being purely an anglo nmerican problem is starting to unravel. Yes the US/UK started and worsened things but the greed got to the europeans as well. The fact they're being dishonest means medium term they could find themselves in greter difficulty. I wouldn't commit completely to suros. Keep broad portfolios of currency if you can and get ready for major european finance problems. We in britain are going to be Ok not becasue of browns abitity but even more incompetence in europe +1 Couldn't agree more Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
grumpy-old-man-returns Posted June 12, 2009 Share Posted June 12, 2009 GOMR what planet are you on? There is absolutely no chance of this; none whatsoever. planet realism. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wimbledon88 Posted June 12, 2009 Share Posted June 12, 2009 Regarding joining the Euro - how can the lizards who control the Bank of England relinquish this power and just hand the reins over to the greys and browns who control the ECB? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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