andykn Posted June 4, 2009 Share Posted June 4, 2009 I disagree, just because you're paranoid, it doesn't mean they're not out to get you . I am absolutely convinced that the figures are being manipulated, the only question is by how much. What? You don't think prices are going down? Or do you believe those figures? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bruce Banner Posted June 4, 2009 Share Posted June 4, 2009 What? You don't think prices are going down?Or do you believe those figures? As I said, I don't trust the figures, they're too easy to manipulate. I believe that house prices have a lot further to fall and will probably be about 20% (or more) lower by this time next year. As to whether or not there is a spring bounce, as others have pointed out, there was a spring bounce most years between 1989 to 1996 and markets never move in a straight line. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Icantbelieveitsnotbutter Posted June 4, 2009 Share Posted June 4, 2009 The consensus view remains that housing is a good long term investment. Based on one fact, house prices have gone up a lot for a long time, and one assumption, we build fewer hosues than we need, and one total disconnect from reality, house prices are unbelievably expensive versus income and economic prospects. They say bull markets climb a wall of worry. Given the consensus, we have the reverse, bear markets fall a wall of undying optimism. The consensus wants to find reason why the worst is over, the consensus wants to see signs we return to past trends. Bull market trap, can last a while yet. You have to risk being wrong and be prepared go against the consensus sometimes. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Icantbelieveitsnotbutter Posted June 4, 2009 Share Posted June 4, 2009 The consensus view remains that housing is a good long term investment. Based on one fact, house prices have gone up a lot for a long time, and one assumption, we build fewer hosues than we need, and one total disconnect from reality, house prices are unbelievably expensive versus income and economic prospects. They say bull markets climb a wall of worry. Given the consensus, we have the reverse, bear markets fall a wall of undying optimism. The consensus wants to find reason why the worst is over, the consensus wants to see signs we return to past trends. Bull market trap, can last a while yet. You have to risk being wrong and be prepared go against the consensus sometimes. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWantItNow Posted June 4, 2009 Share Posted June 4, 2009 Not sure why you or other experienced posters should worry about looking silly in front of a few clownish trolls. Bull = Troll then? This site is pathetic at times. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the end is a bit nigher Posted June 4, 2009 Share Posted June 4, 2009 I think the point of the OP was that there have been some who try and discredit the latest HPI figures. The OP is not saying that the HPC is over, just that we are seeing HPI at the moment, and it's silly to deny it. Fair enough Thank you, you put that better than I did! Can we save that for the pub? (Do people still go there?) I usually save it for the bedroom, but of you don't mind others watching!!! And now you know that Rinoa and Hamish were right all along. Yes, according to the Halifax you have been correct for one month in a row. Well done. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the end is a bit nigher Posted June 4, 2009 Share Posted June 4, 2009 I really cant see what you get out of lying to yourselves. You aint getting a 90% off house. Deal with it. You'll be lucky to see a true 10% off peak for a decent place. You'll be lucky if you aren't homeless. Deal with it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
researchmug Posted June 4, 2009 Share Posted June 4, 2009 "we can see it in the real world. " When I do my weekly search on rightmove (buckinghamshire) using property bee I'm still seeing the prices of properties falling (in my area at least) so i don't agree that we 'can see it in the real world' The market has shrunk to a point where Natifacks data is less reliable. Take into account the added confusing effect of unusual and inconsistent mortgage lending practices (changing deposit requirements etc.) and you have research data that isn't very reliable Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MississippiJohnHurt Posted June 4, 2009 Share Posted June 4, 2009 I really cant see what you get out of lying to yourselves. You aint getting a 90% off house. Deal with it. You'll be lucky to see a true 10% off peak for a decent place. You looked up hubris in the dictionary yet? But seriously, I can't see why we'd listen to you when you have proved many times that you have no grasp of basic economic concepts or current affairs. In your world, as long as Lakeside car park is full, all is well. At least try and have a proper debate some time rather than trotting out the same old crap (as a starter, give us your opinion on exactly why you think prices will go up 5% next year as you said in another post earlier.....) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bruce Banner Posted June 4, 2009 Share Posted June 4, 2009 I really cant see what you get out of lying to yourselves. You aint getting a 90% off house. Deal with it. You'll be lucky to see a true 10% off peak for a decent place. Nice hair Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bimyo Posted June 4, 2009 Share Posted June 4, 2009 Bull = Troll then? No, I enjoy reading Bull opinions and am open to contrarian views (and have no interest in ever buying or selling UK property btw). The fact is that 90% of the Green Shootists on here simply are trolling, ubermensch nonsense full of designed just to get a reaction. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rinoa Posted June 4, 2009 Share Posted June 4, 2009 Yes, according to the Halifax you have been correct for one month in a row. Well done. Thanks. 2.6% eh? Wow. How's the "....rising approvals will lead to falling prices" theory coming along. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the end is a bit nigher Posted June 4, 2009 Share Posted June 4, 2009 (edited) Thanks. 2.6% eh? Wow. How's the "....rising approvals will lead to falling prices" theory coming along. Very well thanks. Notice how approvals have increased at lower levels. i.e. prices down 3.1% on the quarter. Strange isn't it. People agree to lower prices and things start to sell, although a lot were due to cash purchasers. I'm sure you also read my convesation with Spline yesterday, and also his response to Hammy. Looks like you will need quite a few more approvals to even stabilise prices. Anyway, you are only 20% down on your investment at the moment, so keep up the good work. Edited June 4, 2009 by the end is a bit nigher Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
red Posted June 4, 2009 Share Posted June 4, 2009 It's quite simple, really. Bears can't celebrate negative growth stats and then condemn them when they come from the same organisation. It smacks of despair & hypocrisy. The methodology used to calculate HPI, whether you agree with it or not, is reflecting a rise in prices. Accept it. The question is, do you believe we're in a bull trap and prices will soon resume their downward trend or are you about to turn bull and leap into the market? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Sacks Posted June 4, 2009 Share Posted June 4, 2009 Have you not heard of QE? It's not going to make a bit of difference. For a return to 2007 prices we need - -A reckless, kamikaze lending market, guaranteed to run the economy off a cliff. -The above supported by institutional demand for debt instruments guaranteed to default. -A 50+ rise in mortgage approvals. -Houses to be affordable under benign (normal) monetary conditions. -The outlook of UK PLC with regard to taxation and national debt - favorable. -Wage inflation. 2003 - 2007 Classic bubble market. Absolutely no doubt it would burst Spring 2009 - Highly predictable dead cat bounce / bull trap. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bloo Loo Posted June 4, 2009 Share Posted June 4, 2009 chains breaking all over britain. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the end is a bit nigher Posted June 4, 2009 Share Posted June 4, 2009 It's quite simple, really.Bears can't celebrate negative growth stats and then condemn them when they come from the same organisation. It smacks of despair & hypocrisy. The methodology used to calculate HPI, whether you agree with it or not, is reflecting a rise in prices. Accept it. The question is, do you believe we're in a bull trap and prices will soon resume their downward trend or are you about to turn bull and leap into the market? No, the methodology used by the Halifax to calculate hpi has shown that house prices rose last month. The same method showed that house prices fell the month before and the month before that so to make a wide ranging statement that house prices are rising is somewhat premature don't you think? And if you reallywant to focus on the methodology, then by the preferred measure of the same methodology, prices are over 3% lower on a 3 monthly basis. So we accept that there was a rise last month and we are disappointed. Anyone who thinks one monthly rise means the house price trend is up is just plain stupid. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bloo Loo Posted June 4, 2009 Share Posted June 4, 2009 ALL I know is that an average house is over 6 times the average wage.....still...and it just got worse...apparently. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
loginandtonic Posted June 4, 2009 Share Posted June 4, 2009 ALL I know is that an average house is over 6 times the average wage.....still...and it just got worse...apparently. or about 16 times the average job seekers benefits money Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest AuntJess Posted June 4, 2009 Share Posted June 4, 2009 We should deal with it and thank Gordon Brown for saving us all.This site was a right laugh 4 months ago with all the predictions of 90% falls in house prices, the end of capitalism, riots in the streets and needing a stock of guns and beans to survive. Fast forward and what have we got? A pathetic march through London that achieved nothing and house prices on the way back up. Well done Gordon. Dead cat bounce? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest AuntJess Posted June 4, 2009 Share Posted June 4, 2009 (edited) or about 16 times the average job seekers benefits money Yeah. I cant see this country NOT being torn asunder if a load of mortgage payers have low payments due to buying before the insane ramping. whilst the folks next door are eating offa orange boxes and having dripping butties, having enlisted for 100 years mortgage which grand kids will pay off. Get real you lot and stop panicking. Hold your nerve steady....and WAIT. Edited June 4, 2009 by AuntJess Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest AuntJess Posted June 4, 2009 Share Posted June 4, 2009 (edited) I know people better than I know finance. Two predictions. Gordon out before Christmas. Houses to drop in the fall. This little upsurge is the Spring fever - a rush of feel-good brain chems due to fine weather. The local drakes are chasing the ducks...but it won't last for ever. Edited June 4, 2009 by AuntJess Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheCountOfNowhere Posted June 4, 2009 Share Posted June 4, 2009 Read what it says on the tin: "The lender, now part of the Lloyds Banking Group, warned against placing too much weight on one month's figures." "Prices in the last three months compared with the previous three months are generally regarded as a less volatile measure of the housing market." "Between June 2008 and January 2009, this three-month figure showed consistent declines of between 5% and 6%. However, prices fell by 3.1% in the quarter to May compared with the previous three months." That's the last of the up's from the delided spring bounce buyers...I look forward to the next few months. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andykn Posted June 4, 2009 Share Posted June 4, 2009 ALL I know is that an average house is over 6 times the average wage.....still...and it just got worse...apparently. But with over 90% employment and only 70% ownership they average wage doesn't buy the average house. And, even at today's prices, only 50% of house equity is mortgaged (2.4 trn value, 1.2 trn borrowed). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the end is a bit nigher Posted June 4, 2009 Share Posted June 4, 2009 But with over 90% employment and only 70% ownership they average wage doesn't buy the average house.And, even at today's prices, only 50% of house equity is mortgaged (2.4 trn value, 1.2 trn borrowed). But FTBers rarely turn up with 50% equity. It is those being asked to enter the market now who need to find the equity (borrow). Much of that 50% average will be in houses that are completely debt free. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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