House Prices Are Going Back Up

[Timm]

Look bears, we are just making ourselves look silly with all this spin and denial.

Prices are rising, we can see it in the indexes, we can see it in the real world. Is this sustainable? Of course it's not, not without wage inflation anyway.

But until we accept the reality of what is happening now, we are utterly unqualified to comment on what may happen in the future. Lets get real.

[tomandlu]

Look bears, we are just making ourselves look silly with all this spin and denial.

Prices are rising, we can see it in the indexes, we can see it in the real world. Is this sustainable? Of course it's not, not without wage inflation anyway.

But until we accept the reality of what is happening now, we are utterly unqualified to comment on what may happen in the future. Lets get real.

There are some who seem to think that a HPC is always down, and some who know that it isn't, but are still apparently surprised by recent activity, but I think the majority of us recognise that low IR and (presumably) QE have managed to squeeze one last flight out of the balloon.

To be frank, I'd be pretty surprised if prices hadn't stabilised/gone up.

[grumpy-old-man-returns]

Look bears, we are just making ourselves look silly with all this spin and denial.

Prices are rising, we can see it in the indexes, we can see it in the real world. Is this sustainable? Of course it's not, not without wage inflation anyway.

But until we accept the reality of what is happening now, we are utterly unqualified to comment on what may happen in the future. Lets get real.

apply this picture to your thinking process please.

[bingobob777]

We should deal with it and thank Gordon Brown for saving us all.

This site was a right laugh 4 months ago with all the predictions of 90% falls in house prices, the end of capitalism, riots in the streets and needing a stock of guns and beans to survive.

Fast forward and what have we got? A pathetic march through London that achieved nothing and house prices on the way back up.

Well done Gordon.

[Guest theboltonfury]

We should deal with it and thank Gordon Brown for saving us all.

This site was a right laugh 4 months ago with all the predictions of 90% falls in house prices, the end of capitalism, riots in the streets and needing a stock of guns and beans to survive.

Fast forward and what have we got? A pathetic march through London that achieved nothing and house prices on the way back up.

Well done Gordon.

we should thank that man for absolutely nothing. Not ever

[MississippiJohnHurt]

We should (...) thank Gordon Brown for saving us all.

An interesting but puzzling concept. Pls expand.

[three pint princess]

We are following about the same curve as the USA did so far and this brings us within 3-5% of matching peak to trough fall,

We end up around -35% down from peak in June 2010 if you think this will continue.

[Timm]

apply this picture to your thinking process please.

Well quite. I could say (and did) that it's not just the Captain that will be going down with this: All aboard, all aboard...

But right now, they are going up.

[Harry Sacks]

Look bears, we are just making ourselves look silly with all this spin and denial.

Prices are rising, we can see it in the indexes, we can see it in the real world. Is this sustainable? Of course it's not, not without wage inflation anyway.

But until we accept the reality of what is happening now, we are utterly unqualified to comment on what may happen in the future. Lets get real.

New money entering the market is not enough to even stabilise prices let alone create inflation.

When are you going to deal with this???

[Lone_Twin]

Look bears, we are just making ourselves look silly with all this spin and denial.

Prices are rising, we can see it in the indexes, we can see it in the real world. Is this sustainable? Of course it's not, not without wage inflation anyway.

But until we accept the reality of what is happening now, we are utterly unqualified to comment on what may happen in the future. Lets get real.

I do agree with you to an extent Timm and certainly I havent been arguing with the gloating bulls on the validity of one statistic or survey as I think its fairly pointless. However I think there are some really big points that we could miss by just accepting "prices are rising".

--------------

Transaction levels are so low that any small change in the price will be amplified and not representative of a functioning market.

The ammount of mortgage lending has been falling which may suggest this is a suckers rally of the cash rich or of people scared of future inflation looking for a asset based haven for their capital.

The mortgage market has not fundamentally changed, I still need a 15% deposit and the criterior are still tight so where will the extra buyers come from to fund the rise in prices.

The economy is in really bad shape as both stats and news continue to show. Without having gone through the painful period of re-structuring how can we be on our way to recovery.

-----------------

Though I have my reservations about some of the stats quoted by the bulls I have no problem with saying that prices may be rising at present (though that is not my experience anecdotaly as a potential buyer) but I have difficulty with the idea that this is part of a sustained (or sustainable) recovery in either HP or the economy.

[Timm]

New money entering the market is not enough to even stabilise prices let alone create inflation. When are you going to deal with this???

Then how do you explain the rising prices?

Remember, mortgage approvals don't include cash buyers fleeing low returns.

[bimyo]

we are just making ourselves look silly

Not sure why you or other experienced posters should worry about looking silly in front of a few clownish trolls.

[Jim B.]

Look bears, we are just making ourselves look silly with all this spin and denial.

Prices are rising, we can see it in the indexes, we can see it in the real world. Is this sustainable? Of course it's not, not without wage inflation anyway.

But until we accept the reality of what is happening now, we are utterly unqualified to comment on what may happen in the future. Lets get real.

I don't agree with that at all. Any glance at previous crashes shows you have the odd bounce now and again. I don't think this is unexpected or alters the long term view of what will happen.

[grizzly bear]

Look bears, we are just making ourselves look silly with all this spin and denial.

Prices are rising, we can see it in the indexes, we can see it in the real world. Is this sustainable? Of course it's not, not without wage inflation anyway.

But until we accept the reality of what is happening now, we are utterly unqualified to comment on what may happen in the future. Lets get real.

the way i see it, there is a shortage of supply (for all the same reasons as in 2007 & because some people want to wait until prices go back up), and there is some pent up demand from people who sold at peak and potential FTB who have been saving for past 5 years watching prices go up higher and higher.

as you say its not sustainable but will probably continue for another few months.

[Brave New World]

Using a typical Bulls lament of desirable regions being ‘guarded against significant drops, for Harrogate there is no change to the market.

Property Bee is still flagging up property that has seen 10-20% drops (300-150k bracket) and they are still on the market months after these reductions, unthinkable a few years ago.

There are also an increasing number of properties that have gone SSTC and then the deal has fallen through, on the streets around where I live not one property has been listed as sold since early 2008, there are circa 400 properties in this area.

Have no problem accepting the rise, you just have to look at the wider economy – not something Bulls seem capable of.

Edit spelling spaz.

Edited June 4, 2009 by Brave New World

[SarahBell]

Have a look what sold last month in your area ... how many over £100k, over £150k? under £100k

[libspero]

This site was a right laugh 4 months ago with all the predictions of 90% falls in house prices, the end of capitalism, riots in the streets and needing a stock of guns and beans to survive.

This site has always had resident nutters.. and people have always complained about it.

Personally I think it adds to the entertainment, pero asi es la vida.

[Zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz]

20% plus increase over the next 10 months is pretty realistic. Then bubble 2 will burst...

[thedebtisreal]

But until we accept the reality of what is happening now, we are utterly unqualified to comment on what may happen in the future. Lets get real.

Agreed Timm. All we are doing is giving ammunition to continue these pathetic flame wars that are devaluing all the good stuff on this site.

I don't believe the crash has been cancelled, both quarters are down. The question that needs to be answered using some actual evidence, is whether this is a bull trap before further heavy falls or that houses are now going to fall at a slower rate for much longer (a la Japan).

But the time of plummeting house prices is over for the moment. The problem is, as a country we are amassing public debt at a rate that will see us bankrupt in two-three years. We haven't paid the bill for all these bailouts yet. The time is coming when a UK government will have to choose between higher taxes or firing people from the public payroll. These bigger issues have not gone away.

[Timm]

I do agree with you to an extent Timm and certainly I havent been arguing with the gloating bulls on the validity of one statistic or survey as I think its fairly pointless. However I think there are some really big points that we could miss by just accepting "prices are rising".

--------------

Transaction levels are so low that any small change in the price will be amplified and not representative of a functioning market.

The ammount of mortgage lending has been falling which may suggest this is a suckers rally of the cash rich or of people scared of future inflation looking for a asset based haven for their capital.

The mortgage market has not fundamentally changed, I still need a 15% deposit and the criterior are still tight so where will the extra buyers come from to fund the rise in prices.

The economy is in really bad shape as both stats and news continue to show. Without having gone through the painful period of re-structuring how can we be on our way to recovery.

-----------------

Though I have my reservations about some of the stats quoted by the bulls I have no problem with saying that prices may be rising at present (though that is not my experience anecdotaly as a potential buyer) but I have difficulty with the idea that this is part of a sustained (or sustainable) recovery in either HP or the economy.

I agree with all that you say (except in terms of local market).

This is my point really: I've noticed some posters I respect trying to spin or deny the Halifax data, and I think that damages the credibility of what is actually a very credible argument for further falls.

[Confounded]

Look bears, we are just making ourselves look silly with all this spin and denial.

Prices are rising, we can see it in the indexes, we can see it in the real world. Is this sustainable? Of course it's not, not without wage inflation anyway.

But until we accept the reality of what is happening now, we are utterly unqualified to comment on what may happen in the future. Lets get real.

That is right a few rise (that don't even equate to a QonQ rise) in the spring buying season on very low volumes dictates the trend is now up.

With low interest rates driving people out of savings while trumpeting QE to make people believe we are imminently heading for inflation combined with an intense media effort World wide to emphasise the good and bury the bad, combined with the Markets being pumped up (a huge boost to confidence because if the clever bankers are buying shares again the worst must be over) was always going to help house prices. In many ways it is pretty scary how tame the bounce has been with the above mention efforts.

This was entirely predictable and if anything enhances many bears status as not only where they able to predict the crash they have also discussed in depth the bull trap that was set at the beginning of the year. Come back to this thread in November.

[the flying pig]

i genuinely wouldn't say that "house Prices Are Going Back Up" with any confidence.

what i can say with 100% confidence, given that it's based on a year and a half's worth of data & has been consistently shown time after time, is that prices are a good 20% down from peak, and therefore that we've had unprecedented falls.

what i think is likely, but no more than that, is that these falls have slowed significantly, possibly to the piont where prices are now stable. a possibility is that they're genuinely rising, but this is an outside possibility to my mind. let's see where we are in a few months' time.

[zebbedee]

Then how do you explain the rising prices?

Remember, mortgage approvals don't include cash buyers fleeing low returns.

Lets say I have a hundred grand sitting idle earning piss all interest, would I i) let it sit idle earning piss all interest, ii) buy a 1 bed flat or iii) splurge on £160k 3 bed, with next to piss all interest on a 3 year fix. Result c leads to higher house price index but low net borrowing and mortgage approvals, voila!

Edited June 4, 2009 by zebbedee

[grizzly bear]

Lets say I have a hundred grand sitting idle earning piss all interest, would I i) let it sit idle earning piss all interest, ii) buy a 1 bed flat or iii) splurge on £160k 3 bed, with next to piss all interest on a 3 year fix. Result c leads to higher house price index but low net borrowing and mortgage approvals, voila!

quite - once my fixed rate bond at 6.4% expires in november option c. looks more appealing.

[BTB]

Seeing a few months of positive is no surprise.

There is nothing out there would indicate that a sustained recovery is under way and the general trend will still be down. The spring of 2009 will be looked back as not a buying opportunity but a window of opportunity to sell.

Still thinking the bottom will be 2013.